The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 34%(+2), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 12%(-2), UKIP 8%(-1). Changes are since ICM’s last poll, conducted at the beginning of the Lib Dem conference. The Labour lead is unchanged, with the Conservatives and Labour both up slightly, but not significantly, following their conferences.

The rest of the poll included questions about Ed Miliband’s price freeze for energy bills (61% support the promise, 30% are opposed), Royal Mail privatisation (29% support, 63% oppose) and newspapers publishing details of security service surveillance (58% think papers should back off, 34% think they have a duty to report it. Despite what the Guardian report says about a contrast, there isn’t actually a vast difference from what YouGov found in the Sunday Times – they did find more people opposed to the security services monitoring electronic communications than supporting it, but by 43% to 35% people thought the leaking of information about surveillance was a bad thing).

UPDATE: Tom Newton Dunn at the Sun has also tweeted out tonight’s YouGov figures, which are CON 37%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%. The Labour lead of just one point is the smallest YouGov have shown for a couple of weeks, but usual caveats apply – sure, it could be the first sign of a narrowing lead, or it could just be normal variation within the margin of error.


103 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 34, LAB 38, LD 12, UKIP 8”

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  1. Polls seem to again be showing far more variance for the Tories than for Labour – I suppose that’s both a worry and a joy for the respective sides. For Labour they seem to have solidified, which is a plus. On the other hand the Tories vote fluctuates a lot so its hard to get a handle on their true position.

    For the Tories it’s encouraging to see them get to such heights. On the other hand they can also fall down quite far – so again its hard to know their true position and see what is they’re doing right or wrong.

    Over the days I guess we’ll see if this is a trend upwards for the Tories or not. If it is then I hope Labour will have learnt the lesson: their last drop in the polls came when they rhetorically tried to sound like the Tories; their boost came when they stopped that and started sounding different.

    @Alec

    “I also noted Cummings publication and I actually went to have a look at it. It’s a substantial bit of work, but it’s quite dreadful in its content, presentation and style”

    I’m impressed that you managed to read through the whole thing – I could only get to the third page long quotation from some luminary in the field before giving up. Seemed to be the classic case of the Dunning-Krueger effect at work.

    It also didn’t do much to allay my fears that Gove’s master plan for education is just to reintroduce the 11 Plus.

  2. New thread.

  3. England 2 Poland 0
    Stevie G on 88 mins. Brazil, here we come.

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