Last month we had a flurry of Scottish polling around September 18th to mark one year to go until the referendum, since then it’s gone a bit quiet on the Scottish polling front. Today however we have a new poll from TNS BMRB, with topline figures for referendum voting intention of YES 25%, NO 44%, Don’t know 31%. Amongst those who say they are certain to vote the figures are YES 28%, NO 50%, Don’t know 22%. Full tabs are here.
TNS’s poll last month had figures of YES 25%, NO 47% – but received some criticism because their lack of any political weighting meant that the recalled 2011 Holyrood vote showed more Labour voters than SNP voters. This month they have changed methodology, and are now weighting by recalled constituency vote from 2011. TNS say the change didn’t make any “significant” difference, but either way their no lead is now similar to that being shown by YouGov and ICM, smaller than MORI’s, larger than Panelbase’s.
Also out today is Populus’s twice-weekly voting intention poll, which today has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 8%. Full tabs here.