This morning’s YouGov poll figures for the Sun are CON 35%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 10% – it looks as if we are back to the sort of voting intention figures YouGov were showing before the conference. Full tabs are here. Meanwhile yesterday’s twice-weekly Populus poll had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. Full tabs are here.


539 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. Greg

    I’m watching no such thing. It’ll only firm up Google’s image of me and I’ll never shake off the bloody adverts.

    The text version is a gem. Several thousand words of stentorian, Calvin-esque, hell fire and damnation, followed by something like “To find out how to make sure that YOU PERSONALLY can protect enough of your wealth to buy ammunition and bottled water when we all go feral, simply subscribe to Moneyweek. Now. Or we’ll creep into your bedroom at night and make ghost noises.”

  2. @RICHARD IN NORWAY

    “RiNanomics, lol I like that”

    ——-

    Well Colinomics is still operating in the era before 1971 when our currency was still pegged to gold, and the trade balance was a big deal… Whereas these days with a floating exchange rate currency fluctuations can offset trade imbalances…

  3. As opposed to Colonomics, which basically says that it’s all a pile of sh!t.

  4. Just watched NN with Paxman interviewing the Associate Editor of the FT.

    He’s finally become Chris Morris from The Day Today. FT bloke was dissembling. Paxman shouted, “Answer the question matey!”

    Bordering on this.
    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bq_dkPkQUU&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D7Bq_dkPkQUU

  5. RiN
    If you’re taling about car windows, then it isn’t spelt Newquay.

  6. @R Huckle, Lefty et al

    My post got autocanned recently for including the word “reply ing”
    Lefty’s had “imply ing” in it, and yours had “apply ing”.

    See the common thread?

  7. Ying tong yiddle i po

  8. @ALEC

    “Wind power currently producing around 15% of UK total demand.”

    ——

    Did you see RiN’s posts on the ski-lift gravel-bucket thing recently? Methods for storing/releasing energy. Wondered what you thought.

    We need an engineer like Lefty to work out how much energy it could capture, rate-of-release etc.

  9. rosieanddaisie
    Sashay is from line dancing. You look a bit stupid if you don’t sashay at the same time as everyone else, so I suppose that was not quite what was meant here.
    I assume you are good dancers, though your old man might not be so steady on his pins these, ?

  10. Carfrew.

    My empirical research suggests that the auto-mod doesn’t like references to mendacity.

    Let’s hope that nothing continues to happen in Norfolk. Otherwise we’ll have to refer to a low l-ying area of England.

  11. Alec – I think credit card spending was at it’s highest ever level last month, which coincided with rising VAT receipts helping to lower the deficit. However NI and income tax was 3% down on the previous year.

    The recovery seems fragile and a large amount based on debt again.

  12. @Carfrew – missed that one.

  13. days?

  14. Laszlonomics… pleasingly laconic, or should that be laconomical with words?

    Leftylamptonomics, brilliant… a tendency to overheat sometimes though.

    If you include the ‘h’ in Richard it would be RhiNomics or Rhinonomics… I’m thinking sweary celebrity chef meets Norman Baker to discuss the world of high finance. Just needs Alan Partridge to sell it to the TV execs.

  15. BB

    I’ve been posting faster than a credit card company c. 2006. So I don’t know which post you are referring to. But I accept that I have a tendency to overheat.

  16. LEFTY
    While you’re at it, you could also look at fitting a penstock and micro-hydro under everybody’s bath plug hole. It could power Edinburgh’s new tramway system, for one.

  17. Duh. Just cottoned on. The “brilliant” bit threw me. My “nomics” comes from dull, plodding empirical slog.

  18. JP

    The way it’s progressing, fusion will power Edinburgh’s trams.

  19. @ALEC
    “@Carfrew – missed that”

    ——-

    They have buckets hanging from a cable, going around on a loop, like chairs on a ski-lift. They use surplus power to pick up gravel, shift it to the top of a hill, then release it. When you need the energy back, they pick up the gravel at the top of the hill and let gravity pull the buckets down again, releasing the energy.

    It’s like storing energy by pumping it up into reservoirs like we do now, only you don’t need the reservoirs which are tricky to find, have environmental impacts and can be a long way from where needed hence power losses. This can give more local storage…

    Bill Gates is backing it apparently…

  20. The lie-ing thing with automod is crazy, isn’t it? Even if Anthony wants to mod the specific word (like the Speaker does in the HoC) surely there’s a way to automod only for the actual word itself!

  21. @LEFTYLAMPTON

    “Let’s hope that nothing continues to happen in Norfolk.”

    ———

    Lol, indeed. Though you never know with these places. Look at Newquay…

  22. Carfrew

    “Did you see RiN’s posts on the ski-lift gravel-bucket thing recently? Methods for storing/releasing energy. Wondered what you thought.
    We need an engineer like Lefty to work out how much energy it could capture, rate-of-release etc.”

    You REALLY don’t. You want one who is qualified to pontificate on such like.

    But, since you ask, my immediate gut feeling is that the angle of friction of gravel is so high that any system of this sort would have a very low inherent efficiency. Basically, you invest a lot of energy carrying the stuff up the hill, then when you want to get the energy back, it’s internal friction means that most of it just sits where it is. Some of it would move off down the hill and allow you to recover the invested energy, but most of it would just stay there. And you’d get a bigger and bigger hill of gravel.

    What you need for an efficient energy storage/release system like that, is a medium with zero angle of internal friction. Like water for example….

    Or gravel coated in Teflon.

  23. @lefty

    The idea is that the buckets pick the gravel up at the top of the hill to carry it down again? So the angle of friction wouldn’t apply?

  24. gravel coated in Teflon.
    Yes, that’s Colin alright.

  25. CHARLES
    You queried some threads back why we don’t get much in the way of qualitative comment or analsys of VI. Take a look at the cross-breaks on the Populus poll VI yesterday, in particular at the contrast between age groups 35 to 44 (Con 21% Lab 56%), and 65+, almost exactly the opposite. It would be interesting to see some careful analysis of why in these age groups there is such a wide disparity.

  26. @John

    See page 7-8
    http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/identity/13-516-generational-life-course-historical-drivers-of-identities.pdf

    “These results suggest that the nature of the political context has an important effect on whether there will be durable generational differences in identification with parties based on the period of political socialisation of new cohorts of young voters. While socialisation during the highly ideological times of Thatcherism might have lead young voters at that time to become more strongly Conservative than previous generations, it is unlikely that a similar effect will materialise amongst more recent cohorts socialised during the current Conservative government – given the narrowing ideological differences between the parties.”

    So I think that explains why older voters 65+ are currently more likely to vote Conservative – its a hangover from the polarised Thatcher years. It doesn’t explain why everyone else younger than 65 is currently apparently more likely to vote Labour.

  27. LAB 44
    CON 31
    LIB 9
    UKIP 9

    You heard it here first

  28. Richard

    Thanks for that link. I’ll have a look at it in more detail later.

    The reference to Tilley’s research suggests that in “whole GB” terms, the polarisation in the Thatcher years may have produced a differential number of Tory supporters, but in Scotland and the north of England, presumably the polarising effect would have produced exactly the opposite effect.

    I also noted this earlier passage “However, more recent evidence suggests that a political context of party de-alignment and the rise of support for smaller parties (with the concomitant decline in share of the vote going to the main parties), leads to a weakening of the effect of socialisation during a given party’s
    ascendancy for providing a basis for durable patterns of future party identification as cohorts age.”

    That would seem to chime with the rise of the SNP in Scotland, and perhaps UKIP in England.

  29. RICHARD
    Thanks for the link. V. interesting.
    Would you agree with me that that takes in one aspect of the generational VI – the hangover or adherence to or rejection of political legacy, or absence of a clear one now. You would, IMO, have now to factor in what may relatively minor policy differences, which nevertheless impact heavily on some generations differently: e.g. housing, employment, cost of living among younger people with families to look after; pensions among the retired or near retired.
    j.

  30. Richard

    Incidentally, damn you! I was just having a last quick check before going to bed, and you go and post something really interesting!

  31. Instead of nodding of gently, muttering and chuckling away with old CARFEW, like a couple of Chelsea pensioners.

  32. JOHN PILGRIM

    LOL!

  33. Thu October 10, 6 a.m. BST

    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 9th October – Con 32%, Lab 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -22

  34. “Instead of nodding of gently, muttering and chuckling away with old CARFEW, like a couple of Chelsea pensioners.”

    ———

    Aw, you left Amber out, you’re a bit smitten arentcha!!

    Pensioner? If only…

  35. Re the automod question, perhaps it would be possible to mod for the offending word with a space in front of it, thus allowing through innocent words such as fami—- and pecu—-. That is if the word in question needs modding.

  36. Another solid 6 pointer – lead seems solid to where it was pre conference – good couple of weeks for labour – Tories back to square one?
    Another worry for the Tories will be that despite now consistent improving disapproval ratings – Tories figures are not really budging.

  37. @CHRIS

    “Another solid 6 pointer – lead seems solid to where it was pre conference – good couple of weeks for labour – Tories back to square one?”

    ———

    Depends where you choose to start as “square one”. Tories have come a long way forward from the days of 12 point+ Labour leads…

  38. Ouch…
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24465979

    I guess the energy companies want EM elected.

  39. A wild poll appears!

    The Republican party’s ‘favourability’ rating, as measured by Gallop has hit 28%, a fall of 10% and the lowest rating that the pollster has ever (read – since 1993) recorded for either party.

    Similarly their ‘unfavourability’ rating has hit 62%, another record high.

    It’s looking like the republican party’s hope that they wouldn’t take the blame for the shut down has completely backfired.

    TOH –
    It isn’t public debt that you should worry about, this country has been in a much worse position before.
    It’s private debt that should really worry you.

    Public sector debt is forecast to peak at 85.6% of GDP – private sector debt stands at around 400% of GDP (having fallen from it’s pre-crisis peak of over 450% of GDP).
    This is up from just under 150% of GDP in 1988 and is largely caused by the debt of financial corporations.
    See: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/221888/budget2013_chapter1.pdf
    Chart 1.3
    And as is obvious from the chart, it largely isn’t households or non-financial corporations to blame – the increase in debt is largely due to the debt of financial corporations, who make up approximately half the UK’s private debt (since it’s always households who get the ‘debt blame’, after the government).

    It also partly explains our relatively weak growth – if all sectors are ‘saving’ (i.e paying down their debt), then by definition demand must fall, which leads to lower inflation or lower growth.

  40. CLOUD SPOTTER
    IIRC the OBR forecast these sorts of rises in domestic energy prices a long time before Ed Miliband’s energy plans.

  41. CARFREW
    Nah! I had her down as the bonny wee sweetie nippy who leans out with tousled hair, and calls out: “Colour S’arnt NAT!. S’arnt Major CARFREW!, Lights bloody out! Did you not hear me?”
    “:Women, eh?” you say. And off you totter.

  42. According to the Huffington Post
    A recent Poll in the USA provided the following results

    “A national poll asked the following questions: What do you have a higher opinion of, Congress or witches? Congress, 32 percent; witches, 46 percent,” Grayson said, referring to the poll. “What do you have a higher opinion of, Congress or haemorrhoids? Congress, 31 percent; haemorrhoids, 53 percent. What do you have a higher opinion of, Congress or dog poop? Congress 40 percent; dog poop 47 percent.”

  43. @John Pilgrim = Just read your comment on the different voting patterns in different age groups and the need to understand them. I agree that this calls for careful analysis and also that a lot of this analysis will involve quantitative material. Obviously it would be good to have longitudinal studies which mapped people’s voting patterns over time (Do they exist?). But even without longitudinal studies I guess one can get quite a long way by looking at whether similar differences existed 10 years ago between the same cohorts at an earlier stage in their life, whether the differences are the same in different parts of the country, whether the pattern of attitudes in older conservative voters is the same as that found in younger ones and so on.

    All that said, I would still like to hear what people have to say about politics when unconstrained by the straightjacket of questionnaires. Implicitly or explicitly much of the interpretation people on this site put on the figures is influenced by conversations and so on they have had and in the end this is much like informal qualitative research. In certain respects this whole site is a bit like a focus group, albeit one drawn from a rather particular sector of society.

    Personally if I wanted to predict the result of an election I would like a large good poll taken very close to the polling date. If I wanted to influence people’s attitudes and get them to see things my way, I would like to talk to them and understand ‘where they were coming from’. And for this I would like both polls and qualitative data.

  44. CHARLES
    “this is much like informal qualitative research. In certain respects this whole site is a bit like a focus group, albeit one drawn from a rather particular sector of society. ”
    Yes, I was going to make the same point, when you first raised the question.
    I don’t know if there are any longitudinal records which would answer to what you suggest. Anthony would know.

  45. @John Pilgrim

    Lol John, the best of it is when you come barrelling in and try and be the knight in shining armour. I was a bit surprised the first time but it’s ok I’m getting used to it now…

    @TINGEDFRINGE

    “IIRC the OBR forecast these sorts of rises in domestic energy prices a long time before Ed Miliband’s energy”

    ——

    If the OBR forecast it I’m amazed prices haven’t fallen dramatically…

  46. Carefree
    “@lefty
    The idea is that the buckets pick the gravel up at the top of the hill to carry it down again? So the angle of friction wouldn’t apply?”

    Ok, I’d misunderstood. You’re right that the friction angle argument wouldn’t apply, but the mechanical system you describe would (I assume – I’m no expert in mechanical trains) be rather inefficient. Lots of pullies, linkages to open and close grabs and friction between the grab and the gravel.

    In any case, capacity is probably the killer. At 100% efficiency, you’d get 1kWh of output by dropping 3.6tonnes of material under gravity through 100m vertical fall. So you can see the sort of volume and fall heights you’d need to store and release really significant energy.

  47. @lefty

    Yeah, my explanation could perhaps have been clearer. They did say they needed to work on the efficiency but it’s old, well-understood tech and they don’t seem to think it’s a deal-breaker.

    As for the volume thing, all I can say is that the buckets seemed to be very big (the sort they use in the mining industry? That’s in part where this has come from…) and very closely packed together…

  48. @CARFREW

    ‘Depends where you choose to start as “square one”. Tories have come a long way forward from the days of 12 point+ Labour leads…’

    Personally, I always like to use the Audience Selection/Sun poll of 6 July 1983 as “square one”. This was Con: 46 Lab: 23 Lib/SDP: 29

    Now that really shows how far Labour have come and how far back the others have dropped! :-)

  49. @lefty

    Shouldn’t it be 36 tonnes for 100m?

  50. Morning everyone,

    @JACK R – What was that way out prediction of Labour on 44% and Tories on 31% ?

    @Chris – Another ‘soft’ Labour lead of 6% – Where on earth do you arrive at the word ‘Solid’ Chris?
    and totally agree with Carfrew that indeed the Tories have come a long way under very difficult circumstances to basically halve the average Labour lead from a more healthy 10-12% down to an average 4-6% –
    If that 6% solidifies or even grows I will hold my hand up but for now this 6% is SOFT!

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