The Sun have tweeted out the figures from YouGov’s first voting intetnion poll conducted after David Cameron’s conference speech and it has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 10%.
The three point lead for Labour is back down to where we were before Labour’s conference, and perhaps suggests a modest boost for the Conservatives from their own conference publicity (despite much of it being rather overshadowed by the row between Miliband and the Mail!). Straight after the leader’s speech is when I’d expect to see any conference boost if there was one, but equally, it’s still just one poll, so could just be margin of error.
As I’ve said throughout the conference season, it’s a time of year when the polls can go up and down on the back of each party’s own dose of conference publicity. Best not to get too excited over the movements, wait until they’ve all settled down again and then see where we land.
UPDATE: The YouGov/Sun polling also had some extra questions on the back of the Tory party conference (tabs here. Looking at the main thrusts from the two conference, the Labour party and Ed Miliband have a small lead on who would be best to increase people’s living standards (30% to 28%), but Cameron & the Conservatives have a bigger lead on who would be best to fix the economy (37% to 20%).
There is a mixed reaction to Conservative’s floating the idea of stopping benefits for the under 25s. The party didn’t really say what they intended to do on benefits for the under 25s, so by necessity the questions are a bit vague. In short though by 45% to 36% people think it is fair to stop housing benefit for under 25s who are not in work or training, however people would see it as unfair (by 49% to 35%) to stop jobseekers allowance for under 25s. A majority would also see it as unfair for stopping child benefit for under 25s not in work or training.
However, if it was accompanied by increased investment in providing the offer of apprentices or training to all under 25s, 59% of people would support stopping benefits for under 25s. In short, in order to get support for giving more stick to under 25s not in work or employment, it would need to be accompanied by a lot more carrot.