This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. There was a rather ambiguous six point lead yesterday, something that was equally compatible with a continuing boost, or with the boost fading away. Today’s ten point lead is much clearer, showing Labour continuing to benefit from their conference – or perhaps, from a reaction towards the personalised attack on Ed Miliband’s father by the Mail.
Today we have David Cameron’s own conference speech. If parties do benefit from their conferences, it is normally most visible after their leader’s speech, which tends to get the most publicity and coverage of the week. So far there has not been any obvious boost to Tory fortunes from their conference, but then, it’s rather been overshadowed by the row between the Mail and Ed Miliband. Most of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov poll was done before the speech, so the one to watch is the Thursday night/Friday morning poll, and the polls in the Sunday papers.