This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. There was a rather ambiguous six point lead yesterday, something that was equally compatible with a continuing boost, or with the boost fading away. Today’s ten point lead is much clearer, showing Labour continuing to benefit from their conference – or perhaps, from a reaction towards the personalised attack on Ed Miliband’s father by the Mail.

Today we have David Cameron’s own conference speech. If parties do benefit from their conferences, it is normally most visible after their leader’s speech, which tends to get the most publicity and coverage of the week. So far there has not been any obvious boost to Tory fortunes from their conference, but then, it’s rather been overshadowed by the row between the Mail and Ed Miliband. Most of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov poll was done before the speech, so the one to watch is the Thursday night/Friday morning poll, and the polls in the Sunday papers.

488 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 41, LD 8, UKIP 12”

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  1. lol I know.

    Amazed the first question on QT wasn’t…ow wait, darn falling in to that trap!

  2. Newsnight.

    Hats off to Quentin Letts. When the bullets start flying, you find out who is prepared to stand and fight and who sits at home and whimpers.

  3. Ken

    Thanks I’ll give them a look.

  4. Looks like polling may be heading back to pre-conference. Am a bit surprised if this turns out to be so, as I felt Ed edged it this time.

  5. Well the Tories must be pleased with 35. And no mailgate bounce for Miliband.

  6. Con figure looks too high – I know on the back of DC speech but cross breaks will be interesting.

  7. Looks as if any UK conference bounces didn’t last long.

    Interesting to see if there are any bounces in Wales or Scotland with the Plaid and SNP conferences still to come.

    Mind you, since there may be no polling, we’ll never know! :-)

  8. Re Letts:

    Just watching him answer his first question, he looks petrified. I’m reminded of one of the coarser insults from my old mining village when someone looked frit, “He’s shaking like a sh*tting dog.”

  9. @AC

    Tories reach the magic 35% on YG. Can they sustain it?

  10. Interesting poll result – Tory conference bounce and it does seem to be a Con/UKIP thing.

    Froth aside, I do think there is a much greater chance now of a competitive election in 2015. The economic numbers are getting to the point where they are self sustaining, for a while at least, with signs of increasing credit card debts finally suggesting people may be getting more confident – or possibly more desperate.

    However, one of the worries remains that the services growth is being led by the financial services sector, largely on the back of the housing market. Consumer facing businesses are reporting that they are still struggling. This begins to suggest that the excellent overall numbers may actually be a sign that the economy is relying on unsustainable sources for much of it’s growth.

    It looks increasingly like a classic Treasury engineered boom, timed for the electoral cycle. It could spill over into general economic improvement, so the boom becomes a successful kickstart to the economy as a whole, or the boom could be withdrawn and the mini bubble burst.

    Timings of all of this will be critical, but it will be fascinating to see if this rate of growth can be maintained. In a way, it may have gone off a bit too quickly – it can’t be maintained at this rate for very long before inflation and interest rates rises kick in, but any slipping back now will seem like bad news, even if it’s still growth.

    Lots of nervousness all round I suspect.

  11. test

  12. The Daily Mail panellist hasn’t started well in my view.
    Also the populous cheerleading of that huffinggton post bloke is the same every time he is on. Feels like a pre-prepared statement regardless of the question.

  13. Is there not a Populus poll tonight?

  14. It might be a bit premature to declare the conference bounces over, given that the Conservative Party’s leader’s speech was only yesterday…

  15. @RAF – Populus normally comes out midday Monday and Friday.

  16. @alister1948, Richard

    It looks likely that Wendy Davis will announce that she is running for Texas Govenor… after her famous marathon filibuster I checked-out youtube clips of interviews etc that she has given over the years – personable, interesting backstory, a formidable intellect, and genuine with it . Should be an interesting contest.


    “Conservative Party’s leader’s speech was only yesterday”. My how time drags. It seems lost in the mists of history already. :-)

  18. My morning cappuccino will smell even better domani. :-)

  19. @ Turk

    Try Co-Op energy- you know you want to :-)

  20. I quite agree, Oldnat!

  21. Just daft that, given what is known about ole MOE, people here can confidently analyse a 10 followed by a 3 as

    “no bounce or change”

    Would it not be best to see what the weekend [at the very least] brings?

  22. @rosieandDaisie,

    You are two very smart dogs! I quite agree…wait until next week to see whether the lead is back to 4%.

  23. The clever dogs are right, of course :)

  24. Ken

    Che schifo! Gli italiani non bevonno cappucino per collazione.

  25. So no mailgate bounce for ed but what looks like a “the man that hated Britain” bounce for Dave. Maybe the fact that ed ‘s father was a Marxist is a problem?

  26. LEFTYLAMPTON……….All the Italians I know believe that only philistines drink milk after lunch, milk for breakfast, that’ll do me . :-)

  27. I suspect there was an immediate effect from the Price Freeze move, which slightly unwound but is still there. Ralphgate is a bemusing story which I don’t think most of the public will bother about though. Whether it has a long term impact in terms of bolstering EdM’s position in his party and/or blunting future press attacks we won’t know for some time (if ever).

  28. @RIN

    Yes, looks like ‘Marxist Ed” + Mail scare stories = UKIP’s Tory defectors come home.

    Need a few more polls to confirm that. Lets see how UKIP did in today’s by elections, may give us an early indicator.

  29. It’s one poll. Means nothing on its own.

  30. Ken

    Latte, va bene. Ma cappuccino? Per collazione? E per i bambine ed i turisti. Ho sperato che eri piu sofisticato.

  31. My suspicion is that Ed’s energy price freeze, popular though it is, sounds too superficial to be a strand of serious economic policy. Cameron’s claims that the Tories are doing tough love “grown up” economics while Labour is just tinkering and promising negligible sweeteners may well have struck a chord with some voters.

    But, as Robin says, it’s only one poll. There will be many, many more before the 2015 General Election.

  32. Let’s heed AW’s words for once: “If parties do benefit from their conferences, it is normally most visible after their leader’s speech, which tends to get the most publicity and coverage of the week. ”

    So that 35% for the Conservatives, in the immediate aftermath of their leader’s speech, is hardly the most reliable indicator of the long term position. At the same time, despite such disadvantageous timing, Labour could still achieve 38%, a figure which once represented a floor but which they had started to dip below by the start of the conference season.

  33. Hm, another ambiguous poll.

    Labour on 38% could be the low edge of conference boost MoE or it could be them slipping back to pre-conference levels.

    Tories on 35% is quite high, but it’s hard to tell if it’s the new normal or just high MoE at their pre-conference level.

    We’ll just have to wait and see I think.

  34. sanoo fred

  35. LEFTYLAMPTON………I’m a working class spanner chap from Wolverhampton, I start from a very low base when it comes to urbanity, latté or cappuccino…….I’ve only just stopped drinking Camp with chicory essence. :-)

  36. KEN
    My son-in-law is a working class chap from Wolverhanpton. and a leading criminologist and authority on corporate crime. Drinks Marston’s.

  37. Ken

    If you’re wanting to go all Four Yorkshiremen on us, I’m up for it.

    Camp? Bloody luxury.

  38. LEFTYLAMPTON……….Camp, luxury indeed, especially when collecting empty bottles from other people’s dustbins, swilling them out, then using the resulting emulsion as the makings for yet another month.

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