This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13% – full tabs are here. The six point Labour lead is down from the big post-conference leads last week, but a bit too “in the middle” to really be confident what is going on. As ever, it’s common to have a lot of up and down in the polls in conference season, so don’t get too excited – wait and see what they look like once they are all over and things have died down.

There were also the first reactions to the announcements the Tories made at the start of the conference, which broadly got thumbs up – 62% supported allowing married couples to transfer £1000 of their tax allowance when one of them stays at home or earns less than their allowance, 68% supported making the long term unemployed undertake full time community work or risk loosing their benefits, 50% support giving guarantees to banks to encourage them to offer 95% mortgages.

In all three cases, I doubt there will be any impact (help to buy is just changing the timing of something already announced, forcing the long term unemployed to take work of some sort was probably perceived as the sort of thing the Conservatives supported anyway, the transferrable tax allowance is worth a relatively small amount) – just getting high approval ratings in polls doesn’t mean it will have any sort of effect. If the Conservatives do get any conference boost, the most likely time will be after David Cameron’s own speech, the part of party conferences that tends to get the most coverage and publicity.


307 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. Alec,

    I can’t comprehend admiration for a “party man”. There are many things in life worth being loyal to; political parties aren’t among them, IMO.

  2. The answer seems to be no.

    Campbell v Dacre’s substitute commences around 22:42

  3. Spearmint

    Campbell was the reaction to two decades of Labour being kebabbed by the gutter press. They needed a response and in him, they got one nonpareil.

    The shame is of course, that his dominance 10-15 years ago merely upped the ante on both sides and led to the likes of Damian McBride and the feral Oxbridge coterie that Gove employs.

  4. @ Corkscrew – exactly. That was politics, and so is the Daily Mail’s ‘Marxist Dad’ expose.

    It comes with the territory. The DM ran its piece and Miliband has responded. I’ve really no idea why there’s such a huge fuss about it. It’s business as usual – business that Ed Miliband is well-versed in and operates in much the same way when it suits him.

    He should perhaps have avoided squeaking and panting on the BBC tonight, however.

  5. BILL PATRICK

    Wholeheartedly agree!

    I can understand the attraction of being part of the “ruling group” for those venal enough to follow that route.

    Why anyone else takes that line is difficult to understand.

    Doubtless it’s the same mentality as living your life through the fortunes of your football team.

  6. LEFTY
    “Campbell’s take on the Mail is VERY personal”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24358518

    But that’s good journalism, isn’t it, to express a personal take in words that many will understand and agree with, and other not, but both be moved by?.

  7. Daily Mail will lose readers because of their nasty way of operating. Cameron and Clegg have also voiced their support for Miliband.

    Rothermere will no doubt be watching this and I think Paul Dacre will find himself looking for opportunities elsewhere.

  8. Bill P

    Call me naive if you will, but for me, politics is a topic that engenders long-term loyalties. It’s about finding a spiritual home. And politics HAS often been about deciding which side you are on, and throwing your lot in with the party that will provide the best outcome for that side. Accepting the warts and being prepared to march in a generally accepted direction that might not be our personal preferred one, but that is preferable to the practical alternative. That requires loyalty and it is a loyalty that is not necessarily ignorant or ignoble.

    Of course, we all personally know best. Of course we always want everyone to see the light and to agree with us. But most of us mature into people who realise that the world moves forward through messy compromises, and the organisation(s) that produce compromises that have the good intent and generate acceptable outcomes are worthy of support and loyalty.

    To me, loyalty to a party is not dissimilar to loyalty to a spouse. You have some commonality of world view. You have areas of friction that annoy and frustrate. There are aspects of your partner that you dearly wish would change. But overall, the benefits of the relationship are worth the compromise and therefore justify loyalty.

    Or they aren’t, and you stand alone.

  9. I heard on five live that the essential issue was that RM had espoused certain socialist principles and made certain criticisms of the way things were done here, and hence the conclusion is that he hates the place.

    Is there anyone here who hasn’t said how they might like things to change, things that might be improved? I mean, the Coalition have been avidly changing things all over the shop, welfare system, education system, health reorganisation… And not always the clearest of mandates.

    Just because you might want to see things improve in your eyes, doesn’t mean you despise the place.

  10. @Oldnat

    Tribalism is an integral part of human nature.

    Unfortunately I suffer from living my life through (and working for) the fortunes of my Football team….so I know what you mean.

  11. @Rich
    ” How any of you guys can spend an evening moaning about the press and the Mail and then shortly afterwards talk about your admiration for Campbell is really pushing it…”

    You’ve got a point there!

    I suppose it could be argued that the difference is that when AC took up.his post with Labour, it had suffered years of politically fuelled media attacks that in a way made it paranoid about media management – not in order to control the media but to be able to fight fires. And he was the best firefighter Labour could find.

  12. “He should perhaps have avoided squeaking and panting on the BBC tonight, however.”

    Adults should know that if they can’t say anything nice, they shouldn’t say anything at all.

  13. LEFTYLAMPTON

    “To me, loyalty to a party is not dissimilar to loyalty to a spouse.”

    That may be the best example of “authoritarian follower” thinking that I’ve yet seen.

    I’ll avoid the obvious sexual analogy, but if you can’t see the difference between a relationship between equals and following the decisions of a leadership caste, then I fear for you!

  14. CARFREW……The Algarve is a great place to play golf, my favourite is Penina Golf at Portimao, a choice of 3 courses, fantastic hotel, great chill out place. Anyway, I hope your partner manages to retire in good time for you both to enjoy a well earned stress free future.

  15. I think Paul Dacre has lost the plot. The tory party conference has been eclipsed by Ed M standing up for his dear departed dad and the Mail has been exposed as obsessive, nasty and out of touch with it own readers (again – only days ago it was siding with the big energy firms).
    Also its fascist sympathising past has been dragged out into the open.

    I also very much enjoyed Al Campbell tearing into the mail on newsnight – a you tube hit methinks.

  16. @ Leftylampton – I’ve never understood that tribal approach to politics that you describe and I don’t see any similarities between political parties and spouses. I’ve voted for all the major parties in one or other election (national or local), and for different reasons. For many years I voted consistently for a councilor whose party I did not support, and did so entirely because that councilor was an exemplary individual – hard-working, honest, approachable, and deeply involved with the local community.

    I voted consistently for Labour led by Blair (not without misgivings, but he seemed by far the best choice at the time). But I would never have voted for Labour led by Brown and so far Miliband has done nothing to persuade me to vote for Labour under his leadership either. All of which is by-the-by except to illustrate that blind party loyalty is anathema to me and, so I’ve read recently, to a growing number of voters.

  17. Old Nat

    Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, some of us get on with dealing with the real world, not an undergraduate fantasy of how the world should be run if only people would listen to us.

    Shall we both (separately) go to bed?

  18. AC

    You used the word “blind” with respect to loyalty. I don’t recall using that word. I’m not sure why you thought it necessary to introduce it.

    You choose your party by the year? Fine. No problem.

    I would no more think of calling that “rootless” than I’d think of calling a long-term supporter of a single party “tribal” or “blind”.

  19. R&D

    I’m glad I’m not alone in finding some of these remarks unpleasant & unnecessary.

  20. @adam cadwallader: would be very interested to know who you now support. My analysis would be that you tend towards UKIP. Am I correct?
    (traditional swing voter, voted Thatcher, Blair, Cameron in 2010 and now UKIP)

  21. @ Lefty – but it is blind loyalty if you will vote for the same party over and over, regardless of its leadership and policies and just because it bears a tribal flag you long ago decided to affiliate yourself to for life.

    I’m perfectly happy to be described as “rootless” :)

  22. @ chatterclass – you would be wholly incorrect. Do you seriously imagine that anyone who isn’t keen on Miliband the Younger and doesn’t believe in A Party for Life must therefore support UKIP? Are those really all the choices you think voters have? Sad.

  23. “Call me naive if you will”

    You’re naïve Mr Lefty.

    [Can we have a biscuit now?]

  24. “There are aspects of your partner that you dearly wish would change.”

    ——-

    You mean like the golf thing? He must mean the golf….

  25. @ adam

    I just wondered. No value judgement intended. I have a theory that a number of swing voters who voted for Blair voted Conservative in the last election, disillusioned with ‘out of touch millionaires’ have now gone towards UKIP. Showing up on polling as a swing from 2010 Conservative voters, but actually traditional swing as opposed to traditional Tory.

  26. LEFTYLAMPTON

    On your planet, you don’t see a difference between a relationship between two equals, and being a loyal follower of a bunch of politicians?

    Not only will you and I be going to separate beds, but you may find yourself sleeping alone. :-)

  27. @KEN

    “CARFREW……The Algarve is a great place to play golf, my favourite is Penina Golf at Portimao, a choice of 3 courses, fantastic hotel, great chill out place. Anyway, I hope your partner manages to retire in good time for you both to enjoy a well earned stress free future.”

    ——–

    Thanks Ken, sounds cool, I shall check it out. Hopefully it is near the coast, ‘cos that’s a requirement too. She’ll get to retire early if things go as I’ve planned, but things don’t always go as planned so I’ve been planning for that too. Once I’ve planned for in case the plan to stop the plan to stop the plan to retire early from screwing up, then things should be OK.

    Unless she changes her mind…

  28. Is it worth reminding people that AW drew a line under the subject?

    In terms of polling effects, I have a hunch that although it has clearly robbed Cameron of some oxygen, it won’t have a huge effect.

    Miliband will have garnered some additional strength on the measures such as “understands ordinary people” etc, but those are the areas where he is already ahead. On the measures where he lags, strong leadership, Prime Ministerial etc I don’t think it will make much if any difference. In fact, my personal take (based on his BBC interview alone, heard on R4) would be that the very things that made me sympathetic to him – in particular the almost childlike indignation and shock at someone lying about his father – might actually detract from his “leadership credentials” in the long term perceptions game. People may start to see him as a loveable loser, or a figure of pity.

    I would really like Cameron to add something about this sorry tale to his speech. I think it affords him the opportunity to look Prime Ministerial and empathetic at the same time. And given that the story will be in the news for a few days yet, it gives him a chance to at least piggyback on the headlines even if he can’t forge them himself. Besides which, I think Dacre needs to be told.

  29. @Carfrew

    Try Alto Golf just west of Portimao, which I played a few years back and enjoyed. Good facilities without being pretentious and only half a mile or so from sandy cliff-backed beaches.

  30. Nice to see the internationalism on here. “Portugese jobs for British pensioners.”

    Must be a UK party keen to adopt that slogan. :-)

  31. I wonder if the Daily Mail may well have really gone too far with this one that it’ll actually damage the readership. When it becomes a cultural norm that respectable people wouldn’t want to be seen buying a copy of the Daily Mail?

    I suspect a fair amount of people would give a cheer if the Daily Mail was relegated to the same bracket as the Daily Star…

  32. JAYBLANC

    There may be some concern if the Daily Star was relegated to the same bracket as the Daily Mail!

  33. ON

    “LEFTYLAMPTON

    On your planet….” [etc etc]

    You do realise that that comes over as both pompous and unnecessarily unpleasant don’t you?

    I don’t get the point of these contrived arguments at all.

  34. After all, the Daily Mail likes to rail against louche sexua.l attitudes amongst teenagers. The Daily Star prefers to just show them to us.

  35. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    We do understand that your unquestioning loyalty to your master means that you don’t understand how those humans that don’t replicate doggie behaviour think.

  36. One post before beddybyes; don’t bother replying (not that anybody ever does anyway).

    I normally love reading this site, but tonight it’s been like a primary school playground at best, or a DM editorial at worst. And that applies equally to both sides (of whom I support one and despise the other).

  37. @AW

    Why last post in mod? Please enlighten.

  38. How awfully unlucky for the PM that his big Keynote Speech tomorrow will be over-shadowed by news of the US Government shut down, and friendly fire indiscriminate shelling by the Daily Mail.

  39. “ROSIEANDDAISIE

    We do understand that your unquestioning loyalty to your master means that you don’t understand how those humans that don’t replicate doggie behaviour think.”

    …………………………………………………………………………………..

    Apologies O.N. – I’d assumed you realised it’s not the pups that are actually doing the writing.

  40. @ Jayblanc (1.16)

    Until now my wife has bought the Mail most Sats & Suns. Fortunately, if her comments re Cameron, Osborne & Hunt are to be believed, she has not fallen for its right wing views.

    I am pleased to say that tonight she announced that she would no longer be buying the Mail. Hopefully she is one of many. I suspect it is due to disgust rather than shame to be seen with the “newspaper”.

  41. CARFREW
    “You mean like the golf thing? He must mean the golf”

    Swing voters, Old Boy.

  42. AW
    May I offe the following in place of my pre-moderated post above? Thanks

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24360887
    The complete Campbell-Seafal interview.

    It is intriguing to hear Seafal invoke a” fundamental principle” of journalism that the headline has to be read together with the text for both to be understood. While I don’t claim to be expert in the principles of journalism, there seem to be two problems with this argument: (i) it is nonsense: the text has a purpose of providing the news; the headline does what it says, it headlines the intent and message of the piece, and will be the only part read by many readers; (ii) in the case in question the text was, in Seafal’s broadcast explanation, based on Ralph Miliband”s repeatedly stated “antipathy” for British institutions, which cumulatively add up to hatred of Britain. This is nonsense logically, but it also, more dangerously, McCarthyism.
    It crosses not just the boundaries which exist in British political life – as EM pointed out – rather, it crosses a particular boundary, one which led to Joan Robinson and Philip Hobsbawm being blacklisted being publicly attacked for Stalinist views, and to Moses Finlay going into exile to Cambridge from the States, in the early ‘fifties.
    It is very precisely aimed at supposed communist infiltration, and in one blogger’s post on here, amazingly not moderated, to a Wikipedia article identification of Ralph Miliband’s ideas, which the blogger argued were a definition of terrorism.
    This is not a storm in a journalistic teacup. Dacre is well aware that it feeds into the potential for a political response beyond the walls of Parliament or political comment. Taken into the context of employment and immigration policy, for example, and measures of inclusiveness or exclusion which may need to be legislated for and implemented during the next Parliament, it is extremely dangerous.

  43. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 1st October – Con 31%, Lab 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%; APP -29

  44. Five poll rolling average:

    Con 32.0
    Lab 40.6
    LD 9.0
    UKIP 9.4

    Lab Lead 8.6

  45. Interesting changes in Miliband’s ratings on this poll:

    In touch with the concerns of ordinary people +6
    Honest +2
    Sticks to what he believes in +3
    Decisive +3
    Strong +4
    Charismatic +3
    A natural leader +2
    Good in a crisis +2
    None of these -4

    Ratings for Cameron and Clegg pretty much unchanged.

  46. Approval down again

  47. Too many 8% for LDs to be happy at the moment?

  48. i’m reminded of that neat poll that read

    Con 30
    Lab 40
    LD 10
    UKIP 15

    Looks like a pretty good baseline still. I wonder how close that will be in 2015?

  49. Be interesting to see is ‘hate-gate’ has a positive effect on milliband’s personal ratings.

    Latest poll may capture some of that, but the story got the most coverage on tuesday – so may be more effect to come.

    Spectacular own goal by Dacre if thats the case.

  50. Reggieside
    I can’t see how anyone would find standing up for your Dead Father when His memory has been pilloried by a bunch of nut jobs can have anything but a positive effect.

    90% + of People would do the same.

    We now know the Daily Mails Definition of Hatred of Britain is ” those who do not agree with us” .

    The Right wing press doesn’t have to sink to these depths where you stare up longingly in the knowledge that you will never ever reach the giddy heights of the gutter.

    Kudos to the Daily Telegraph they distanced themselves from this tripe by publishing their thoroughly objective and respectful Obituary of Ralph Miliband again in their paper.

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