This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13% – full tabs are here. The six point Labour lead is down from the big post-conference leads last week, but a bit too “in the middle” to really be confident what is going on. As ever, it’s common to have a lot of up and down in the polls in conference season, so don’t get too excited – wait and see what they look like once they are all over and things have died down.

There were also the first reactions to the announcements the Tories made at the start of the conference, which broadly got thumbs up – 62% supported allowing married couples to transfer £1000 of their tax allowance when one of them stays at home or earns less than their allowance, 68% supported making the long term unemployed undertake full time community work or risk loosing their benefits, 50% support giving guarantees to banks to encourage them to offer 95% mortgages.

In all three cases, I doubt there will be any impact (help to buy is just changing the timing of something already announced, forcing the long term unemployed to take work of some sort was probably perceived as the sort of thing the Conservatives supported anyway, the transferrable tax allowance is worth a relatively small amount) – just getting high approval ratings in polls doesn’t mean it will have any sort of effect. If the Conservatives do get any conference boost, the most likely time will be after David Cameron’s own speech, the part of party conferences that tends to get the most coverage and publicity.


307 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. Is there any polling on why the help to buy was brought forward?

  2. ” The six point Labour lead is down from the big post-conference leads last week”
    ______

    A few deflated souls today me thinks!!

    To be honest any conference bounce/boost is just temporary because of all the rather positive exposure the party receives.

  3. Andrew Stunnell MP is standing down in Hazel Grove in 2015.
    That will brings one of the safer LD seats into play as a LD/Con marginal. That’s a total of 5 incumbent LDs now departing, 9% of their MPs.

  4. 39 is still relatively healthful considering the narrowing over previous weeks. Can’t help but think the Mail outrage will help him also, although I’m sure he’ll be thankful of it, but continued exposure and Milliband standing up for he dead father can only improve his personal ratings but necessarily voting intention

  5. “A few deflated souls today me thinks!!”

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    Well, almost suicidal I imagine.

    [oops – nearly forgot the !!! marks to confirm extreme wit.]

  6. From the blog of a former poster here

    “I have it on good authority that Daily Mail editor Paul Dacre is very proud of his father. On becoming editor of the Mail he even revived his father’s column Ephraim Hardcastle as a tribute to him.

    Which makes the bizarre attack on Ed Milband’s father by the Mail even stranger.In 1944 when the 22-year old Ralph Miliband was bravely risking his life storming German positions protecting the Normandy beaches, Paul Dacre’s 19-year-old father Peter Dacre was working in London as a show business reporter for newspapers such as the Daily Express.Quite how a fit 19-year-old managed to avoid call-up to the front line at that time God only knows.

    Perhaps show business reporters – like coal miners – were considered just as essential to the war effort as fighting soldiers?”

  7. We would get a better idea on these policy questions if those polled were asked to choose between competing Conservative and Labour policies, rather than looking at them in isolation.

    For example, on long term unemployment, the difference is not about the element of compulsion. Instead it’s that while the Conservatives offer only benefits, Labour would offer a jobs guarantee at the minimum wage. Likewise, public attitudes to Help to Buy would be tested more clearly if they were tested against policies for increasing the supply of affordable housing.

  8. @Phil

    Re: Hazel Grove: I live nearby.

    The Tories fielded a weak candidate in the last election – although, it could have been worse, as in 2001, the defeated Tory candidate was a Nadine Bargery.

    I am not sure that, locally, the Tories are strong enough to take the seat. The southern part abuts staunchly Tory Macclesfield, but the whole seat is increasingly Manchester commuter belt and workers in Manchester are not distinguished by their Tory sympathies. Romiley is very well-to-do but tends to be Lib Dem, Bredbury is solidly Lib Dem, but might be ground for the Tories, Offerton is less affluent and seems to be more open to turning to Labour and Lib Dem losses in Hazel Grove are as likely to be to Labour as to the Tories.

    It should be an interesting fight, but one I expect the Lib Dems to win.

  9. Well I was totally wrong about public opinion on Help to Buy!

  10. @ Shevii

    Well I was totally wrong about public opinion on Help to Buy!
    ——————
    How so?

  11. @Chris

    Thanks for that insight, and I wasn’t predicting that the LDs would lose as it ranks 16th on their list of safest seats. But the loss of incumbency must surely knock at least 5% off the LD’s VI share for starters, and that should be enough to turn it into a close contest.

  12. @PHIL HAINES
    “We would get a better idea on these policy questions if those polled were asked to choose between competing Conservative and Labour policies, rather than looking at them in isolation.”

    ——–

    Yep. It’s been done on the economy, contrasting the emphasis on austerity vs. Demand/growth-led approaches to dealing with the deficit… Ipsos did a question on it…

  13. @Phil

    *From what I have heard* (he says, carefully), shall we say that Stunell might not have benefitted as much from an incumbency advantage from either voters or activists as some at the coming election.

    In an entirely related point, the largest employer in Stunell’s constituency is the very large Stepping Hill Hospital, which serves much of Stockport and north-east Cheshire. It may benefit the Lib Dems not to have a local candidate who voted for the Government’s NHS reforms.

  14. And to be fair, the recent YouGov questions on education pitted what might be considered the “Govian” approach vs. an alternative, focusing on things like understanding. I found it interesting; I suppose to be fair to Gove, I recall him objecting in the past to the idea that his approach was to deny importance of understanding. Or maybe someone did it on his behalf, not 100% sure. But yeah, contrasting policies directly is handy.

    Credit is another useful thing to gauge, eg economic recovery (given how Major and Brown didn’t get re-elected)…

  15. I’d love to see a question pitting help-to-buy versus building more social housing…

  16. Carfrew,

    Talking of Gove he is on soon, despite being a Labour man I am fully behind his Education reforms, long overdue.

    Hunt was getting stuck into Burnham over Mid-Staffs, that is a boil that Miliband needs to lance fast, or he could regret it later.

  17. @ Carfrew

    The question would have to put correctly as a bias either way could easily be introduced and influence any answer given.

  18. @Anthony W

    “There were also the first reactions to the announcements the Tories made at the start of the conference, which broadly got thumbs up – 62% supported allowing married couples to transfer £1000 of their tax allowance when one of them stays at home or earns less than their allowance, 68% supported making the long term unemployed undertake full time community work or risk loosing their benefits, 50% support giving guarantees to banks to encourage them to offer 95% mortgages.”

    Did they also ask them their views on motherhood and apple pie?

  19. @ rosieanddaisie

    ‘“A few deflated souls today me thinks!!

    Well, almost suicidal I imagine.

    [oops – nearly forgot the !!! marks to confirm extreme wit.]’

    :-)

  20. @ Crossbath11

    Anthony did go to say he thought there would be little effect politically, about as much as Miliband’s [] promise on energy bills.

  21. @ Amber

    Last night I was querying the polling figures on help to buy and AW was saying they came from the time of the budget. I was expecting a complete reversal now but the public are still well in favour and almost no change.

    Also seems this cuts across political preference as figures were very similar for all 4 main parties supporters. I guess if you can’t shorten policy to something that includes the word ‘tax’ (say the supplementary house price tax) then the public are largely in favour!

    Personally (and maybe I can get away with being partisan …. [afraid not – AW]

  22. @ Edward

    The “boil” is in a place that will be very difficult to lance, come the election it will rightly take prominence whenever the NHS is discussed.

  23. @ Shevii

    Help to Buy approval is on a downward trend; it was higher in the past.

  24. @ SHEVII

    The UK is primarily a house owning society, not a house renting one, which probably explains the general support for help-to-buy.

    [Just as I’ve snipped Shevii, can we please NOT get into a debate over whether policies are any good or not – AW]

  25. The three and a half minute clip of Miliband’s interview with the BBC today talking about his father and the Daily Mail’s allegations is currently the most watched on the BBC news website. It would appear that a pretty sympathetic and favourable portrayal of Miliband is getting an awful lot of airplay.

  26. And despite being a Tory man, I think Ed Miliband’s policies are all rather super. :-)

  27. @ Anthony

    Do you know if a question has ever been put asking something on the lines of “What would you understand the term social housing as meaning?”

  28. @ Anthony

    I wasn’t passing a preference on a house owning society as I’m not sure which I prefer myself, only reflecting the figures in the poll!!

  29. AW

    Oops, just saw your sniping of Bantams. I presume my own modest effort will be heavily snipped as well

  30. @Crossbat11

    “It would appear that a pretty sympathetic and favourable portrayal of Miliband is getting an awful lot of airplay.”

    Yes, and during Tory conference week too. The DM’s attempt to smear EM by association could easily be blowing up in their faces.

    I await the DM’s exposure of DC’s father as a stockbroker who clearly hated the UK since he did all he could to avoid paying UK tax by exploiting off-shore loopholes (described as “morally wrong” by DC himself), thereby amassing a substantial fortune at UK taxpayers’ expense.

  31. This morning’s Yougov indicates some straight switching back from Con(31 to 33) from Lab (42 -39). I know, that is a trite conclusion.

    I have this vision of the true floating voter who does not bother with messing around with minor parties like mine or UKIP.

    After last Tuesday he says ‘Royt oyl vout Lyba’. Then comes along GO on Monday morning with his projected fuel duty freeze and he says ‘Nouw, oyl vout Toweree’.

    Life should be so simple.

    After tonight’s YouGov we should be able to predict Friday’s post-conference balance sheet a bit better, but remember, many YG keyboards Monday were tapping after the fuel announcement (or the ‘will say’ version).

  32. @ Richard in Norway

    So you’re basically saying anything that goes up in price is a bubble that’s going to burst? I don’t know about Norway but we simply don’t have enough houses here for our fast growing population. Whether we like it or not (I’m not sure), whilst this happens supply and demand together with level of wages will dictate the market.

    I, for my sins, have been a stamp collector of the pre 1945 period since my schooldays and market prices have risen constantly purely because there are more collectors than stamps available. A bit like houses.

  33. AW

    Or totally snipped, damm

  34. Howard,

    I didn’t know South Africans could vote in our elections!

  35. Bantams

    I will wait for permission from AW before replying, he scares me, he has so much power, I don’t want to get on the wrong side of him again

  36. If Amber Star is a “tory” man I will eat a hat!

  37. Test

  38. RiN

    Careful!

  39. Raskey,

    I think he was trying to be sarcastic on my backing of Micheal Gove’s education reforms. Being a parent of 3 teenagers I am fully behind him, he is genuine and decent and unusual for a modern politician he praises opposition politicians if it helps his one aim, improving UK Education.

    I am not into this Red good all Blue bad like some on here.

  40. @ Richard in Norway

    No problem, know what you mean though. When Anthony uses the term “snipped” I get very nervous especially if it’s NHS related!

  41. Mr N
    It was supposed to be faintly brummie, as that is where I always think Mr Marginal lives. I suspect my attempts at phonetics are damaged form 15 years in the Netherlands so your guess at Afrikaans was on the money. I suppose ‘vote’ in brummie is ‘vowt’, not vout’. I have to think Harry Enfield’s ‘richer than youw’ sketch.

    Actually, if YG panel people have voted mainly today, one suspects the Paul Dacre efforts may play a role. It was given publicity, including some favourable to EM, by DC.

    Leaving aside partisans’ reaction, I wonder how it all came over to the floater? I have my thoughts of course.l

  42. @ SHEVII
    The UK is primarily a house owning society, not a house renting one, which probably explains the general support for help-to-buy.

    -Just as a matter of fact and with no reference to policy until the 1970’s this wasn’t true.

    It’s fast not being true again the number of households renting in London already outnumbers the home owners

  43. BANTAMS…………..I’ve been collecting soap for sometime, I’m aware there could be a bubble.

  44. @Edward

    Nor I, but some people put tribal loyalty before anything and everything. Personaly I have always voted for who makes the most ‘believable’ case, and who I think will do best for country – so far Labour, Tory, Tory, Tory, Labour, Labour, Tory, Tory. Have not decided yet on 2015.

  45. Hm… very ambiguous from YouGov. Labour could either be at the low end of MoE on 40%, or the high end on 38%. No way to know until we get a few more polls. Tories are picking up a bit, but then, we have no reason to expect them to drop.

    Re. Ed Miliband’s dad and the Mail, I’ll just echo Chris Riley FTPT: extensive coverage of Miliband sticking up for his dad in the middle of the Tory party conference is not a situation developing to the Conservatives’ advantage. (Unless you think it’s to their advantage to have minimal coverage of their conference, which… is a case you could make.)

    Re. Our own Edward’s loyalties- now now, Team Red, we’re a broad tent. Although I should have thought liking Hunt was beyond the pale.

    @ Phil,

    For example, on long term unemployment, the difference is not about the element of compulsion. Instead it’s that while the Conservatives offer only benefits, Labour would offer a jobs guarantee at the minimum wage.

    I think there actually has been some polling on this, and the Conservative policy did better. Less expensive and punishes the unemployed- what’s not to like?

  46. Just had an email from Ed Milliband majoring on the daily Mail attack on his father, saying he (Ed) is not prepared to stay silent on this.

    Clearly Labour are playing this for all it’s worth, as they think it gives them an advantage. I think this is probably correct – most reasonable people see the lack of evidence to back up the claim and are making their minds up between the DM and Ed.

    For my part, this reminds me of the most distasteful aspect of certain right leaning types, who insist that only their politics represents ‘patriotism’. To them, the idea that a marxist, or a socialist, or an environmentalist, or anyone who isn’t exactly like them can love their country is a non sequitur.

    Some people drew parallels between this episode and the death of Thatcher. The elevation of this brand of narrow patriotism to a central political tenet of the party of government probably reached its zenith at this time, which is why some of us found her time so distressing. To feel un British in your own country is quite an experience.

    I wish Ed well in this particular venture, as I would were he a politician of the right facing a similar campaign from the opposite side. How dare a newspaper publisher dictate who loves or hates their country, and how dare they define patriotism only on their terms.

  47. I should add – I don’t see any of those ‘right leaning types’ on UKPR – just for clarity, and because I know AW doesn’t like that kind of language used here.

  48. @ Ken

    Olay!!

  49. BANTAMS…… Your tag entitles you to spell,’ Olé ‘, ‘Olay’, anyone else would get an attack of the pedants. ;-)

  50. BANTAMS……..I’ve just, ‘got it’, Olay is a brand of soap, a distinguished collector such as myself should hang his head in shame.

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