This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 13% – full tabs are here. The six point Labour lead is down from the big post-conference leads last week, but a bit too “in the middle” to really be confident what is going on. As ever, it’s common to have a lot of up and down in the polls in conference season, so don’t get too excited – wait and see what they look like once they are all over and things have died down.

There were also the first reactions to the announcements the Tories made at the start of the conference, which broadly got thumbs up – 62% supported allowing married couples to transfer £1000 of their tax allowance when one of them stays at home or earns less than their allowance, 68% supported making the long term unemployed undertake full time community work or risk loosing their benefits, 50% support giving guarantees to banks to encourage them to offer 95% mortgages.

In all three cases, I doubt there will be any impact (help to buy is just changing the timing of something already announced, forcing the long term unemployed to take work of some sort was probably perceived as the sort of thing the Conservatives supported anyway, the transferrable tax allowance is worth a relatively small amount) – just getting high approval ratings in polls doesn’t mean it will have any sort of effect. If the Conservatives do get any conference boost, the most likely time will be after David Cameron’s own speech, the part of party conferences that tends to get the most coverage and publicity.


307 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. Cameron well up to the fight. Great speech so far. No stupid promises, no selfish claims. Just competence. I would rather have that from my Prime Minister than a lorry-load of passion!

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  2. Why was Camerons speech in the morning, rather than in the afternoon, where it is more likely to be seen and gain more news coverage ?

    The Tories seem a bit lackluster at the moment. I think they will go for a mini reshuffle of the cabinet in the next few weeks, if they can agree this with Nick Clegg.

    Is there a strategy for the Tories not wanting to be doing well in the polls, for fear of the Scots voting to end the union ? If you think about it, if the Tories had a lead in the polls and it was likely they would form the next government, it would be far more likely for the Scots to vote for independence.

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  3. @R Huckle

    Seems a bit overly Machiavellian to say the Tories are not doing well on purpose to save the Union!

    I think the simple answer is that they think they’ve already got an election-winning offering and it doesn’t need a lot of tinkering with, just some message discipline to convince the electorate.

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  4. New thread :-)

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  5. John Pilgrim (fpt 4:47)

    It crosses not just the boundaries which exist in British political life – as EM pointed out – rather, it crosses a particular boundary, one which led to Joan Robinson and Philip Hobsbawm being blacklisted being publicly attacked for Stalinist views

    I assume you meant Eric Hobsbawm[1] in which case it’s interesting that he also received a similar attack, not just in the 50s, but as soon as he was safely dead – and guess where:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2211961/Eric-Hobsbawm-He-hated-Britain-excused-Stalins-genocide-But-traitor-too.html

    Oddly enough it appeared exactly a year before the Mail’s heroic attempt to dig themselves in even deeper. It even attempted a similar guilt-by-association by pointing out that Hobsbawm’s daughter had been in business with the woman who later married Gordon Brown. Which means Gordon Brown was a Stalinist, right?[2].

    As Neil A exactly predicted we are already seeing the result in today’s YouGov (I forgot we had a Leader’s tracker due[3]) with Miliband’s ratings, especially the ‘in touch’ one, all up. As with most ‘events’ the effect on the polls may not prove to be long-lasting but a more interesting question is whether it will lead to a bit more respect for Miliband especially from broadcasters. Though given that what he is doing is (again) attacking the privilege of the media, it could just mean that they re-double their efforts to denigrate him – the reaction of the DT bloggers seems to confirm this. So does the Mail’s website today – though the fact they have a two hour gap on approving comments (or finding enough ones that agree with them?) is revealing.

    The irony is that if you were to pick a single Marxist who was furthest from unquestioning support for the Soviet Union, it would be Ralph Miliband. Still facts never usually get in the way of London Press.

    [1] There was a literary figure called Philip Hobsbaum who was important as a teacher in Ireland and Scotland – he was a mentor for such diverse figures as Seamus Heaney and Alasdair Gray for example – but he doesn’t seem to have suffered the same fate as his near-namesake.

    [2] Even more hilariously they are denounced as having “contempt for ‘ordinary people’”. Which given that this was written by the terminally snooty A N Wilson…

    [3] Though I suspect we may well see more polling to show the full effect of the Dacre’s little explosion, since for many people the impact of all this wouldn’t be till yesterday evening’s news programmes.

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  6. @Shevii

    I’m sure Lab will not stoke the flames any further. EM has had his say and everyone with an opinion has expressed it.

    The Tories do probably need to work out how to stand up.to the DM. It hijacked their conference and Tory MPs felt unable to react for fear of alienating it.

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  7. ROGER MEXICO
    Thanks for your correct amendment of my post. Yes,, of course, Eric Hobsbawm. Your link to the DM attack was very revealing in its similarity with that on RM, both of them crafted circuitously to do harm to Labour leaders via family associations. I hope,, indeed,, that the Conservative Party will distance themselves from the DM.

    And – must get my names right – Brunskiene, I think (known as (the Amber Lady!!) , was the Lituanian PM who stood up to Gorbachev’s appeals.

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