Populus’s twice weekly poll earlier today had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7%. Unlike the YouGov polls since Ed Miliband’s conference speech Populus has not shown any sort of boost for the Labour party. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so would have partially got the start of the the Tory conference and their marriage tax announcement… but in past years when there is any sort of conference boost it has tended to show up after the leaders’ speeches.

Still to come tonight we have the monthly ComRes poll for the Indy, then either tonight or tomorrow morning the daily YouGov poll for the Sun. Let’s see if they give us any consistent picture of whether Labour have retained a conference boost or not.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes poll for the Independent has topline voting intention figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 11%(-1), UKIP 11%(+1). Changes are from a month ago, and full tabs are here. As with Populus, no sign of any Labour conference boost.


212 Responses to “Populus – CON 36, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 7”

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  1. @Pete B

    If anything, it seems to be the Summer’s ‘feel-good’ factor, if the dates are any indication. Economic upturns and all that.

  2. PETE B

    “I wonder if the Tory vote in Scotland is now a protest vote?”

    Did you miss out a ;-) at the end of that?

    While I disagree with them on almost everything! they represent a legitimate political view. One of the benefits of the Holyrood system as opposed to Westminster, is that the i in 5? of Scots who vote for them are represented in our Parliament.

    Dismissing minorities as just “protesters” rather denigrates those folk.

  3. Been following the row over the Mail’s editorial on Ralph Miliband. Won’t repeat what’s been said here because it would lower the tone of debate, but a cursory look at the reaction to it suggests this was a serious misstep on Dacre’s part.

  4. @Mrnamless

    Ditto the front page of the Times tomorrow.

    Our press need to grow up a bit. People can rightly see through these smear attempts, but the problem is they then get people to feel sorry for the people being smeared, which is also not a good place to be. Debate the policies, not the man/woman.

  5. RICHARD

    “Debate the policies, not the man/woman.”

    Or, if you’re Simon Heffer in the English Daily Mail , not an entire nation.

  6. OK, leaving aside issues over whether a budget surplus is the ideal approach economically, there is still of course the matter of how the announcement may affect party strategy and VI.

    So here’s what Robinson of the Beeb had to say:

    “Politically, it allows him to promise tax cuts once the recovery is established as the Tory way to tackle squeezed living standards; to share the proceeds of recovery (an echo of his pre-crash pre-election promise to share the proceeds of growth) and to challenge Labour to spell out their long term spending plans (he is highlighting the fact that Labour have only pledged to match the Coalition’s current spending plans for one year – the year of the next election)”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24332642

  7. COLIN
    “How many rabbits can EM keep pulling out of his hat?”

    That might not be the relevant question. If, rather then Labour moving into the centre ground, it is the centre ground which is moving – that is the social market is evolving towards mainly governmental solutions to the economic collapse – then EM will, as I think he has done, work on and bring solutions relevant to the UK electorate to the fore.

  8. ROSIEANDDAISIE
    @TURK “don’t let him get you to do the ironing that’s just cruel.”

    But I assume you get his dinner on the table as a man deserves after a hard day on the strings

  9. That would be an interesting polling question, or questions. To gauge what proportion of voters think governments should intervene to promote growth, ensure free markets, assist business proactively on the demand side when it doesn’t respond to supply side measures (like cutting red tape etc).

    In the end, having tried the supply side stuff, cutting corp tax etc., and seen that it doesn’t do much when no demand, the Tories resorted to stoking demand for housing by assisting with mortgages.

  10. Interesting paper by Marcus Roberts

    h ttp://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/LaboursNextMajority_web.pdf

    brings together some of the points made by bloggers here

  11. Some of the points made by Marcus Roberts

    Labour core vote is 27.5% of electorate found mostly in cites, north of England, Scotland and Wales.

    Lab needs 6.5% (total electorate) of LD switchers or just over a third of LD vote in 2010

    Lab needs 5 or 6% (total electorate) from new voters, young voters, D/E class non-voters.

    These are all minimum numbers

  12. This Ed M response to the newspaper article attacking his father

    h ttp://labourpress.tumblr.com/post/62751616247/ed-miliband-my-dad-was-a-man-who-loved-britain

    the original is here

    h ttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2435751/GEOFFREY-LEVY-SATURDAY-ESSAY-Red-Eds-pledge-bring-socialism-homage-Marxist-father.html

    I suppose the polling issue would be

    How would the original article and the response affect people’s view of Ed M?

  13. The core message in terms of strategy that the Fabian thing advocates is that Labour shouldn’t prioritise chasing Tory swing voters any more, who are unlikely to switch anyway. (Though they advocate maybe getting 1% of Tory switchers…)

    Instead they should build a voting “coalition” of the ex-Libdems, plus new voters. And to do this they need a campaign that doesn’t just target one voting block, thus rejecting the emphasis on swing Tory voters of the past, and doing something more like Hollande and Obama, targeting multiple blocs with lots of data and organising.

    You need to persuade more people this way, than if you persuade Tories to switch, but they are more persuadable…

  14. @Carfrew

    thanks goodness you added something, looking back at the blog, it was looking as if I was one of those lonely bloggers talking to myself!

    FYI
    It is not early where I am in the world at the moment

    I will reply a bit later

  15. Carfew

    On Robinson

    He did go on to say that Labour would then be able to reply that he doesn’t have a good record of meeting targets (he just changes them) and he hasn’t set out how he will pay for his promises either.

    Most Tory promises on spending cuts are more headline grabbers than anything that will save money.

    His problem is that there is nothing left in social security anymore and he will have to go for pensions…..

  16. @Carfrew

    I think the voter breakdown in the subsets of the Yougov polls shows the tiny churn amongst Lab and Con 2010 voters and the 1/3 LD switchers to Lab at the moment.

    Is there any polling evidence for new voters or 2010 non-voters?

  17. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 30th September – Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -21

  18. Five poll rolling averages:

    Con 32.6
    Lab 40.2 (highest since at least 14/6/13)
    LD 9.4
    UKIP 11.6

    Lab Lead 7.6

  19. CHRIS
    Prediction time:
    Lab 39
    Con 33
    Lib 9
    September 30th, 2013 at 10:17 pm

    Prediction pretty spot on – in getting good at this

  20. Approval at -21 must be very scary for the the labourites, the trend is very definite that this govt is increasing in popularity even if Labour remain ahead in the polls. Does that make the lead softer?

  21. @ Richard in Norway

    in this poll the coalition combined is 44% on Sunday it was 40%, so possibly 4% more positive towards their government and 4% less opposition

    That might also make a difference to the other questions

    e.g.
    The change in the financial situation in your household in the next 12 months Sunday to Tuesday
    -27 to -19

    I would not have thought their opinion would have changed that much in 2 days, but the sample has changed.

    Cons have increased their LD switchers from Sunday’s poll and LD’s have got back to some of their switchers from Lab. The LD switchers to Lab on Sunday was unusually high.

  22. Studying the minutiae of poll changes like a fortune teller studying the remains at the bottom of a tea cup doesn’t really achieve much.

    The Bottom line appears to be Labour is settled in nicely somewhere between 37-40% , reflected in actual results.

    The Conservatives have lost about 3 percent of their support since the election and now are apparently peaking at between 33 and 36% ,rather better than actual results or marginal polling indicates.

    If nothing changes between now and May 2015 Labour win with a majority of around 60.

    Anyone want to hazard a guess what game changer there could be in the next 15 months?

  23. @RIN

    There is an hypothesis that might mean the improved APP is good for Labour.

    If the Labour lead was a function of the disapproval of the government, then one would expect this lead to go down as the approval rating go up.

    This poll (just one so caution is required) shows a improvement in approval, yet retaining a good Labour lead.

    ls this proof that Labour VI is based on Labour policy itself and not just a protest vote?

    This would mean that the government can’t just rely on looking competent to win in 2015.

  24. RICHARD
    “Approval at -21 must be very scary for the the labourites, the trend is very definite that this govt is increasing in popularity even if Labour remain ahead in the polls. Does that make the lead softer?

    Or is it “So long, it’s been so nice to know yar”, the old office party and carrage clock effect?

  25. @FLOATING VOTER
    Carfrew
    “thanks goodness you added something, looking back at the blog, it was looking as if I was one of those lonely bloggers talking to myself!”

    ———-

    Yes, the night shift can be a bit lonely at times (though if the Scots contingent join in, you might wish you had been lonely!!…)

    Not sure about the new voters, tbh…

    @BCrombie

    Can’t say that I saw that part. Still, if that’s what he said he might have a point…

  26. Floating Voter has a good point. Of course things can change, but at the moment the LD to Lab switchers look sufficient in number.

    I am not sure whether or not the new voters are available. Voting is not high in this group is it? Does anyone have facts as to what proportion are even on the electoral roll? How did Obama manage to get people to register?

    Does the analysis take account of the diversity in the UK? Uniform swing might be particularly unreliable as a predictor this time with so many parties in contention.

  27. Catmanjeff

    “40.2% Highest since at least least June”

    That’s as may be,but it means very little, the polls are already heading back to pre conference figures without building in any temporary Tory bounce, and it’s more likely rather than Labour opening a big lead in the coming 18 months they will find it progressively more difficult to maintain the lead they have.

  28. A 5:3 split with people disapproving of the government’s record in the majority is hardly going to have Labour quaking in their boots.

  29. Floating Voter

    The Miliband article is very touching and clearly comes from the Heart.

    I can empathise with Miliband as my Own Grandfather ‘s experience prior to the first World War was very similar to Ed’s Father

    My Grandfather was an Italian Jew and Communist but fought as a Soldier in the British army in both WW1 and WW2

    Not being an academic like Miliband He would have merrily punched the lights out of anyone who suggested He was not British and Proud of it.

    He subsequently went on to vote Tory, nobody is perfect !

  30. Anthony

    The tables are wrong for Midland/Wales ? The Con,Lab, Lib and others add up to 101. Surely you normal round down one of the numbers by convention ?

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/q5rp313o9c/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-300913.pdf

    By the looks of it Labour had a temporary bounce of 2% (ish) due their confernce coverage and this is settling back down again. The Tories so far are where they have been for ages at around 33%.

  31. Govt increasing in popularity, must be worrying Labour a little?!

  32. R4 just did a good vox pop with some voters in Rochdale, Cleggmania évident and coming back to Labour. It is well to remember that FPTP is a VERY blunt instrument.

  33. @Alister

    The Fabian report which FV linked to above contains their rationale and suggested approach.

    They reckon Labour need about 5% from new voters. Half of this will come from “generational churn”, the rest from increasing turnout amongst young voters and socioeconomic groups D and E, via policies tailored to appeal (eg something on tuition fees) and a big Obama-style GOTV campaign… Presumably why they hired Graf…

  34. NB. Graf’s methods extend beyond leaflets and canvassing to local community campaigns to “build local capacity and reconnect the party with communities”…

  35. Cameron doing a very passable impression of Arsene Wenger…

    “What did you think of the bad tackle on Ed Miliband’s dad”

    “I did not see it”

  36. Morning everyone,

    So, thats the LD & Labour conference out of the way and Labours lead settled back down at between 4-7%
    Now, if the Cons get a Conference boost it could be more interesting by this time next week – always good to have your conference last!

  37. Carfew

    I hope Labour, LDs and Cons do succeed in connecting in this way, because if they do not then more extreme grouos will. Nature abhors a vacuum.

  38. groups

  39. @Shevii

    “Cameron doing a very passable impression of Arsene Wenger…
    “What did you think of the bad tackle on Ed Miliband’s dad”
    “I did not see it”.

    Lol!

  40. The Daily Mail’s Editorial response to Milibands’s article about His father proves it is entirely possible to look up in the forlorn hope of reaching the gutter.

  41. More than anything, I loathe bullies.

    That’s why I’m delighted to read Ed M’s piece in the Mail and the fierce and richly-warrented criticism he gives to that dreadful newspaper.

    Notable that they haven’t opened comments on the piece though.

  42. The Mail laying into Miliband because his dad made some vaguely unacceptable comments as a 17 year old.

    This is the same Mail whose editor has said, “If you don’t have a left-wing period when you go to university, you should be shot. I was left-wing and I don’t regret it one bit. I felt passionate about a lot of things.”

    http://www.bjr.org.uk/data/2002/no3_hagerty2

    The irony eh?

    I’ll tell you my own little radical peccadillo.I would disenfranchise anyone who showed any sign of believing anything written in that most revolting of rags. When it says “Tuesday 1 Oct” on the front page of the Mail, I check the calendar, just to make sure.

  43. Sine’s back, in time for a conference boost!!!

    @Alister
    On the bright side, the British aren’t all that big on the extreme thing. Even when we went to all the trouble of having a revolution, after a bit it was like “Hmm, ok, maybe not…”

    Pluswhich, we get trained up to preserve the status quo apparently…

  44. x2 on the Wenger thing…

  45. Miliband has has his say and the Mail has responded to that.

    All designed to sell papers, which the Mail does well, unfair to call it a dreadful paper but it contains more interesting reading than any other tabloid by far, political or not.

  46. “If you don’t have a left-wing period when you go to university, you should be shot. I was left-wing and I don’t regret it one bit. I felt passionate about a lot of things.”

    ——-

    I think BJ flirted with the Libdems at Uni but I’m not sure any of the other Tories in government diverted from Toryism at Oxford?…

  47. AMBER

    @”Really, that is not credible”

    I disagree.

    The last OBR forecsts were for £42 bn deficit in 17/18

    So two years of £20bnpa deficit reductions would eliminate that.

    FRom the 09/10 legacy deficit of £157 bn to the last confirmed number-12/13 £116bn has been an average deficit reduction of £14bn.

    But GDP growth hardly helped in that excercise at all-it will in the next Parliament.

    Also, you may have missed GO’s trick of excluding Capital spending from that commitment in future ( back to GB’s “borrowing to invest ” ?)-ie he effectively means eliminating the CURRENT Deficit by 2020.

    Speaking personally I am pleased to see him following Keyne’s advice about counter-cyclical public finance policy.

  48. Crafrew – I think Chris Grayling would have been in the SDP at the time!

  49. A very interesting exchange between EM & DM leader writer this morning.

  50. Edward,
    I suppose that depends on what you call interesting reading!

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