Populus’s twice weekly poll earlier today had topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 7%. Unlike the YouGov polls since Ed Miliband’s conference speech Populus has not shown any sort of boost for the Labour party. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so would have partially got the start of the the Tory conference and their marriage tax announcement… but in past years when there is any sort of conference boost it has tended to show up after the leaders’ speeches.

Still to come tonight we have the monthly ComRes poll for the Indy, then either tonight or tomorrow morning the daily YouGov poll for the Sun. Let’s see if they give us any consistent picture of whether Labour have retained a conference boost or not.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes poll for the Independent has topline voting intention figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 11%(-1), UKIP 11%(+1). Changes are from a month ago, and full tabs are here. As with Populus, no sign of any Labour conference boost.


212 Responses to “Populus – CON 36, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 7”

1 2 3 5
  1. Lab on 39% though..?

  2. Is that a straw I see being grasped?

  3. Raskey

    No straws left, Osborne has them all in his sweaty little hand

  4. RASKEY

    Surely grasping Jack would be the last resort?

  5. ComRes/The Independent Poll- LAB 37 CON 33 LIB DEM 11 UKIP 11

    So after all that excitement last week, nothing has changed?

  6. @richard,

    Starting to look that way. I did say let’s wait a few days! (runs for cover)

    rich

  7. Perhaps the 11 pointer was a combination of a Labour bounce and an outlier in one.

    Of course, we need another apple to compare with the apple. But these oranges aren’t remotely appley.

  8. Hm. ComRes poll was supposed to be embargoed until 10!

  9. Internal enquiry. Heads should roll..

  10. (Probably from the Met).

  11. @Neil A,

    This small labour lead is more like a peach.

  12. Anthony

    We’ll take that as confirmation of the ComRes poll results then!

  13. Ooops, sorry, it was tweeted by 2 people, I picked it up from there…

  14. Richard – no need for you to apologise, you’re only bound by the embargo if you get the press release!

  15. I wonder if they’ll try embargoing (is that a word?) Twitter?

  16. Perhaps the Indie can make a big story out of the fact that it was leaked, and make their money that way..

  17. @Anthony (from the previous thread)

    Thanks for your explanation – I was asking about all three of the things you described so you covered everything!

    I imagine that even for academic reasons questions that may offend must be quite difficult to word – both for the people writing them, as well as having to avoid seeing to push something and inadvertently corrupt the data.

  18. Grant Shapps made it crystal clear at lunchtime that Conservatives will field candidates in all 651 (I think he meant 650, or more accurately 632) constituencies.

    When asked about the Con MPs who are committed to withdrawl from the EU getting a UKIP endorsement (as in the case of Lord Pearson, the then UKIP leader campaigning for Philip Hollobone in 2010), Shapps replied that it would be fine if any party decided to stand down candidates and campaign for the Conservatives.

    Farage seems to be back where he was in 2009… making overtures to the Conservative leadership (Lord Strathclyde acted as intermediary last time) and being rebuffed – but with the knowledge that he could inflict significant damage this time.

    Rees Mogg thinks real negotiations will start next year. If the election looks close then Farage would be under immense pressure not to gift Downing Street to Miliband, however, if that looked to be the likely outcome anyway, then endorsing selected Conservative MPs could be an attractive prospect.

    As many as 100 Tory MPs may be facing a real battle in marginal seats, and if a UKIP endorsement could save their seats, how many might be tempted… and would they feel some kind of allegiance to Farage (who concievably might himself have made it into the HoC by then)?

  19. The Tories still have a great mountain to climb. So long as Labour remains in the 36-42% range then the Tories will have to poll over 43% just to be the largest party. They would have to poll over 45% to get near to an overall majority. The chances of that, zero, I would suggest.

  20. A bit early for a conference bounce so will be interesting to see the YG one tonight (which will not be greatly influenced by Osborne’s projected giveaways, although widely publicised on the ‘will say’ procedures in a.m. news programmes).

  21. @Howard

    Classic Fletch line from the Boxing match episode of Porridge (abridged):
    “It not the outcome of Conference season that the Tories need to be worried about. It’s the outcome of the outcome!”

  22. The assumption that Labour will remain in the lead on the run up to the GE maybe true, but perhaps we should wait and see what happens between now and then.

    The main deciding factor for the next general election is going to be based around who do the public see as the party best able to manage the economy and what party offers the best chance of a real improvement in living standards, not based on conference giveaways (from both sides), but on real substained growth which in turn will lead to a rise in living standards for most people.

    In imo the public have still to make there minds up on both those issues that’s why it’s premature to say one party or the other has no chance, again as I’ve said before, after all this conference hype is over the polls will remain close, maybe right up to the GE with no party having a clear lead if that happens it’s still anybodies game.

  23. The new 4-party contest that we are likely to have in England (I have to say that or the lurking Oldnat will bite my legs) might make conventional calculations of what percentage parties need to get a majority unreliable, particularly if UKIP manage to galvanise traditional non-voters.

    Also, has anyone seen the interesting graph over at Electoral Calculus? It took a while for me to understand it, but basically it shows how VI changed over the two years before recent elections. Tories won in 1987 and 1992 when Labour VI was at the current level or better at this stage. However in 1997 and 2001 Tory support was lower at this stage and of course they lost.

  24. PETE B

    If I have persuaded you to make accurate posts, then my life’s work is complete. :-)

  25. @ Turk,

    Except sustained growth hasn’t led to a rise in living standards for most people. Real wages were falling even before the crash.

    Miliband’s case is that growth alone is not enough: the economy needs to be restructured so that there will be more long-term investment and the benefits of growth are spread more widely. If Labour can win that argument and convince people that they won’t completely destroy the economy in the process, they win the election. If they can’t, Miliband has no mandate and they don’t deserve to win.

  26. turk

    “The assumption that Labour will remain in the lead on the run up to the GE maybe true, but perhaps we should wait and see what happens between now and then.”

    That is a jolly good idea indeed and one we hadn’t thunk of.

  27. ON

    “PETE B

    If I have persuaded you to make accurate posts, then my life’s work is complete.”

    Blimey, what an epitaph: how sad can you get.

  28. Oldnat
    We aim to please. I know how touchy you barbarians are :-)

    (for the humourless amongst us, that is a bit of what is known as banter)

  29. @ Pups,

    That is a jolly good idea indeed and one we hadn’t thunk of.

    Well, you are just past your first birthday. You can’t expect to think of everything yet.

  30. The next Norwegian govt has been decided, as many including myself predicted, it wasn’t possible to cobble together a 4 party coalition, the differences were too great, so it will be a blue/blue minority govt with agreed support from the Christians and liberals in certain areas. Of course the the two centre parties extracted their pound of flesh for making a stable minority govt possible, in fact I’m impressed with how many concessions they managed to get, but we will wait and see if it pans out the way they believe

  31. Do you have the vote over there Richard?

  32. PETE B

    Surely there can be no humourless folk on here?

    Observing politics is the equivalent of popping along to the Comedy Club.

  33. PETE B

    When I said “Surely there can be no humourless folk on here?”, I forgot the dugs. :-)

  34. Oldnat
    Lol! I agree. I said that because of the reaction to my quip on the last thread when I said I shuddered to imagine Boris or Ed in one of those world leader group photos. Before anyone jumps on me again, I did apologise for upsetting them.

  35. @Pete B

    That’s why traditional comparisons are probably no longer valid.

  36. TURK

    I think the broad based economic platform which GO outlined may come to contrast significantly with EM’s very narrow focus on CoL.
    Also the absence of any indication of Labour policy ( as opposed to single issue announcements ) on Education, Welfare , Europe , Immigration et al contrasts with the the policies & actions being outlined in Manchester.
    Of course -if the recovery still leaves large numbers of people feeling unhelped, EM’s tactic may have traction come 2015.
    But unless that is the case , the offering from Brighton looks pretty thin compared with that from Manchester at present.

  37. ON

    “When I said “Surely there can be no humourless folk on here?”, I forgot the dugs.”

    Now we have re-read it we can see that it was very funny indeed. Ole Daisie nearly wagged her tail.

    Rose.

  38. Pete

    I can vote in local elections but not national ones, I think I would have to become a Norwegian citizen to vote in national elections and I ain’t ready to do that

  39. @ Colin

    So you think the Tory Conference has been miles better than the Labour one and the Tories have much better policies?

  40. JAMES

    a) it hasn’t finished yet.
    b) I didn’t say “better” – I said broader-more comprehensive. ( ie including things like Education, Europe, Public Finances etc etc )
    c) It isn’t what I think which is relevant-it is what the voters think-in 2015

  41. Rosieand daisie

    “That’s a jolly good idea indeed and one we hadn’t thunk of”

    My pleasure, happy to open your puppy minds to at least some thought.

  42. @Colin,

    I have to agree with you. Coherent joined up long term policies are for me much better than one off headline grabbing announcements.

    No idea how this will pan out for polling though. Could we just be back where we started before the start of these conferences?

  43. Colin

    Oh, thanks for that.

    Very informative.

  44. There seems to be a lack of clarity in the fuel duty freeze pledge – “provided we can find the savings elsewhere”.

    Isn’t governance about deciding which budget lines should be increased/decreased and specifying the detail?

  45. RICH

    @”Could we just be back where we started before the start of these conferences?”

    If that transpires I reckon it’s a Con gain ( subject to no disappointments on the recovery)

    How many rabbits can EM keep pulling out of his hat?

  46. We now have tables

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_1st_October_2013.pdf

    Oldnat you will be pleased to see the Tories and Labour are now neck and neck in Scotland, 33% each. SNP fading, only 30% (page45)

    (yes I know crossbreaks and small sample….)

  47. OLDNAT

    @”Isn’t governance about deciding which budget lines should be increased/decreased and specifying the detail?”

    Yes-when you are presenting a Budget.

  48. turk

    “Rosie and Daisie

    “That’s a jolly good idea indeed and one we hadn’t thunk of”

    My pleasure, happy to open your puppy minds to at least some thought.”

    …………………………………………………………………………….

    Well, some irony anyway and it was owr dad what thought of it: he’s VERY clever……………………………

  49. @ Colin

    From the Conservative’s own brochure:

    Under the headline “Who comes to our [Conservative] conference?” is a pie chart: 4% event support; 2% international; 20% media. Then the two biggest slices: 38% party members and 36% commercial/charity/exhibitors. In other words, barely a third of those swarming Manchester this week are paid-up Conservatives – and they are almost equalled by corporate lobbyists.
    ——————–
    That ‘broader’ thing you mention certainly doesn’t seem to happening inside the conference.

  50. I’m thinking that Osbourne’s promise of “running a budget surplus” is a bit optimistic – perhaps mid-end of the next parliament at best? It also sounds like a “read my lips no new taxes” moment – that didn’t turn out so well.

    As for the possibility that some polling companies have missed the Labour boost, perhaps it was just some others finding a dip that didn’t exist?

1 2 3 5