Populus’s latest twice-weekly poll is out, and has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9%. Full tabs here. Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11% (tabs here.

YouGov’s seven point Labour lead is down from the nine points in yesterday’s poll but still suggests some degree of conference boost. Populus meanwhile doesn’t show any conference improvement for Labour at all. Funnily enough we saw the same pattern last week – YouGov showed the polls briefly narrowing after the Lib Dem conference, Populus didn’t. It could be some subtle methodological difference, or could be a co-incidence. Better not to worry too much about it during conference season, just enjoy the ride and see where the polls end up once all three have faded from the news.


62 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. The BBC Have decided the most important issues of the day are the overcrowded state of our cemeteries ,which just goes to illustrate the importance they place on politics.

    It reminds me of the last thing my Dear Old Gran Said Before She Died:

    “What are you doing with that Pillow?”

  2. @ MrNameless

    That article seems to suggest that in a very small but potentially significant way UKIP is getting in the way of Tory defectors going to Labour. Lab move up 5 points and Con move up 2 points in the event of a pact.

    In some ways it makes a bit of sense from the differences between the various polling organisations where some have UKIP at 17%.Where another polling organisation has them on 10% at the same time there is not anywhere near a 7% boost to Con in that polling.

  3. @Ben

    I used to think the same thing. How could opinion polls only show UKIP in the 10’s when they are regularly getting 20’s in local elections and by elections.

    The answer is:
    1. Scotland. UKIP is not a national party.
    2. Turnout.Turnout in local elections is far lower than general elections. UKIP voters are older and more likely to vote in local elections. In a general election a lot more people come out
    3. People intend to vote differently in the general election vs local elections vs European elections. They don’t vote the same way in all elections.
    4. History. People have tried to use local election results to see if that compares to general election results, and for all the reasons above, it doesn’t work.

    I agree the local election results are interesting, but they are only an indicator,

  4. @ShevII

    I have a theory:

    The traditional mid-term protest that should have gone to Labour then back home come the GE has instead gone to UKIP. If this is the case than the Labour position is stronger than they may appear as their VI will not be soft come the GE.

  5. Ben, the other trend that is becoming clear from the local elections is that UKIP does well when there is one main party that has a very large majority.

    But when it is a close race, they do a lot worse.

    So people are not voting for ukip, they are voting against that other large majority party. So that gives them high percentages in some local election contests, but many of those people are not UKIP supporters.

    When asked “what party do you identify with”, a very small percent of UKIP voters actually identify with UKIP, the tend to identify with one of the 3 main parties. Which leads me to think they are not voting for UKIP, but rather against a main party. I don’t think a party could really win many seats in a general election with that sort of support base.

    And that is what we saw in the May local elections. UKIP actually won very few races, they just came second in most places.

  6. steve

    ” the last thing my Dear Old Gran Said Before She Died:

    “What are you doing with that Pillow?”

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    Steve: do you realise that reads like a confession???

  7. STEVE
    “I am not sure if the purchasers of the Sun can actually be described as a Readership as many are functionally illiterate.”

    You mean, like, people who read the Sun don’t mine who is running the government, so long as she has a big heart?

  8. RosieandDaisie

    That last one made me laugh out loud…..been a difficult day chez moi but that really made me chuckle

  9. Although it is true that if the Conservatives were much stronger on immigration many in the centre may not vote for them it is also true they would get many present Labour and none voters to vote for them as these now have little allegiance to the Labour Party

  10. @[email protected]
    Bravo. Of your five I think turnout is the most important.
    If you take UKIP at 25% in Local elections, assume that those who don’t vote in Locals but do vote in general elections will be much more likely to vote for one of the major parties than for UKIP (whose committed voters will vote in Locals), then the UKIP % is reduced roughly in the ratio of turnout, to say 25 x 25%/65% or about 10%. Put your own “real” numbers in to get anything from about 8 to 12%, and then worry about how to explain those polls that give UKIP 17+ %!

  11. Steve

    I’m offended by your comment about the sun readership. Even if some folk are functionally illiterate(who is it that decides, is it based on newspaper choice) that doesn’t make them less worthy as human beings. Your attitude is the mirror image of the right wing nutters that want IQ tests for voters and/or a lower limit on net worth for voters

  12. One awaits tonight’s poll with tenterhooks.Probably going to be some terrible
    Damp squib.I think that the political advantage of the Labour energy proposal
    Is that it benefits everyone.The marriage tax break is to the advantage of about
    4 million people,and judging from comment,pretty divisive.
    Also the Ancona book does not help t.he liberals at all,methinks.

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