The Sun have tweeted tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures – toplines are CON 32%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%. The Labour lead is up to nine points, the biggest for three weeks or so, and suggests a positive reaction to the conference announcements.

Usual caveats for any poll showing interesting movements apply, especially for the sometimes up and down polls of conference season (some years it doesn’t have much effect on polls, some years they are up and down like a rollercoaster after each conference). Last week we had a narrowing of the Labour lead following the Lib Dem conference, this week a boost in the Labour lead following their conference. Next up we have the Conservative conference – will the Labour conference boost be sustained so they end up the net beneficiaries of conference season? Or will it fade away again once the immediate publicity passes? Or indeed will the Conservatives get their own conference boost next week?


462 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 41, LD 8, UKIP 11”

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  1. Mr Nameless – Close but no cigar :-)

  2. The ugly ducking may well be turning into a Swan.
    Ed is Carp line is a red herring that even he is turning to his advantage …the papers (The Guardian particularly), the BBC are looking a little foolish.

    If this keeps up ……I am beginning to sense the next election could turn into a cakewalk!

    In which case…I predict a bucket of cold water to calm me down tonight!
    TOFFS 35%
    SALT OF THE EARTH 37%
    WIGS 9
    KIPPERS 13%

    This ‘neck a neck’ poll will be tweeted and talked about relentlessly by the BBC commentators, press ….and make the front page of The Guardian as proof that Ed is Carp!

    I’m going to have a lie down now.

  3. Paul Bristol – Before you go for a lie down…..the actual poll result is that way. <<<<<<<<<<<

    The salt of the earth of 7% to the good.

  4. @Red Rag
    Polldrums.
    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  5. “Labour lead drops two points to three day low as Red Ed and Labour go into meltdown”….Dan… you can have that for free.

  6. Labours problem is that momentum gained now must be maintained.Not easy
    When there is a CPC to come which will obviously be widely supported by the
    Media.Deafening silence by the Tories so far,obviously waiting for the polls to see which way to jump .Saturday nights poll will be crucial I think.

  7. What you need is a good old fashioned negative leak over the weekend to put them off guard ;-)

  8. CHRIS
    For the hell of it
    Lab 39
    Con 33
    Lib 9
    September 26th, 2013 at 10:32 pm

    Not too bad – point out. 7 points is not too bad seeing as it was level last week.

  9. So how much of Labour’s lift is simple exposure, and how much due to the policies? And what policies do the Tories offer in their conference in reply?

  10. Love him or loath him, Michael Gove is very quick witted. Very good performance on QT.

  11. That’s tomorrow’s Daily mail front page.

    Some polling information there. Seems we all want to send the disabled out to work for their benefits. Nice society we live in :(

    “The YouGov survey shows most voters believe jobseekers should carry out work experience or community work in order to receive their benefits.

    By a margin of nearly five to one – 56 per cent to 12 per cent – they support the introduction of ‘workfare’ for the long-term unemployed compared to the status quo.

    Two thirds of those questioned – 67 per cent – felt workless mothers with children under four should be excluded from doing community work in return for benefits.

    But only one in four – 25 per cent – thought those with mental health conditions who are capable of work should be excluded from workfare, and only one in five – 22 per cent – thought those with physical disabilities who are capable of working should be exempt.”

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2434182/Now-work-benefits-Ministers-unveil-tough-crackdown-payments-jobless.html#ixzz2g2VeaHnM

  12. Rich – agree have been surprised by him tonight – spot on Will Self too – god I think I need a bath now.

  13. You can hear the panic from the Mail knowing that they on the wrong side of the argument around energy, perversely an argument they have made themselves.

  14. @Richard

    But only one in four – 25 per cent – thought those with mental health conditions who are capable of work should be excluded from workfare, and only one in five – 22 per cent – thought those with physical disabilities who are capable of working should be exempt.”

    This is exactly the terrible attitude the UK has towards mental health sufferers and disabled people generally, that is observed by the Asda ‘Mental Health patient’ scandal.

  15. @Richard, Chris, CatmanJefc

    What was Ed’s quote – DC is strong when standing up to the weak? Popular or not, that accusation may eventually stick.

  16. Why shouldn’t disabled people work if they are capable of it? I assume many would welcome the dignity it affords rather than being thrown on the scrapheap.
    Mentally disabled people are usually capable of unskilled manual labour at least, and many physically disabled could do some sort of desk job.

  17. @Pete B

    I’m sure they would if they.could. Forcing people not fit to work to.do so is just plain mean. And beware public opinion.on this. They’ll say they agree with it in theory but after a few horror stories the tide could rapidly turn.

  18. RAF
    The original quote from Richard – which i have no reason to doubt – was “But only one in four – 25 per cent – thought those with mental health conditions who are capable of work should be excluded from workfare, and only one in five – 22 per cent – thought those with physical disabilities who are capable of working should be exempt.”

  19. Red Rag
    There’s loads of jobs in normal firms that some disabled people can do. I’ve worked alongside dwarfs, cripples, and people with a variety of conditions including [cerebral palsy] (or whatever the PC terms are) [it sure as hell wasn’t that! – AW]. They’ve always fitted in pretty well. There’s no need for them to have special firms. The more integrated they are into normal society, the better for both them and society.

  20. I’ve got a couple of comments in moderation. Probably because I mis-spelt my email address.

  21. Ok, here’s the PC version

    RAF – the original quote was about those fir for work

    Red Rag – Many disabled people work in normal firms, and I have worked alongside a number. They don’t need their own special subsidised work

  22. Fit! not fir. Damn this Special Brew.

  23. A fair number of local by elections tonight.

    Same trend, UKIP in second place in most elections where there is a strong main party. No bloomgate impact to be seen…

    You can watch them come in here

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/105540/thread

    results so far:

    Conservative hold West Sussex – Storrington

    Con 1037 (45.9%), UKIP 729 (32.2%), LD 364 (16.1%), Grn 131 (5.8%)

    2013 – Con 1580, UKIP 1252, LD 464
    2009 – Con 2677, LD 771, ED 523, Lab 215

    Labour hold Barnsley – Wombwell

    Lab 1240 (66.8%), UKIP 457 (24.6%), Con 81 (4.4%), ED 78 (4.2%)

    2012 – Lab 1769, BIG 329, ED 192, Con 124
    2011 – Lab 1887, BIG 440, Con 323, BNP 218
    2010 – Lab 2617, Con 764, BNP 738, BIG 419

    LD hold Mole Valley

    LD 423 (55.7%), Con 236 (31.1%), UKIP 101 (13.3%)
    2011 – LD 483, Con 391, UKIP 65
    2007 – Con 493, LD 261, Grn 46, Lab 31

    Conservative hold Tendring – St James
    Con 445 (49.8%), UKIP 196 (21.9%), Lab 135 (15.1%), Tendring First 82 (9.2%), LD 35 (3.9%)

    2011 – Con 766/718, TF 276/191, Lab 256/207, Grn 87, LD 79/44
    2007 – Con 727/671, TF 280/250, Lab 195, LD 166

  24. There are a great number of disabled people already in work.

    There are a vast number of disabled people unable to work on a regular basis but are dee as fit by ATOS, in spite of all the supporting medical evidence in many cases.

    Employers in most cases are either unwilling or unable to make the necessary changes that would allow many more disabled people to work.

    I am a disabled person so have a lot of knowledge on the subject.

    Oh, btw if jobseekers are to be made to work for their JSA will that mean they have a job & will be eligible for a huge pay rise from £71pw to Nat Min Wage ?

  25. @Pete B

    My concern is over people with ‘hidden’ disabilities.

    My children have Aspergers, which means that on a good day, everything seems fine. Things can hinge on events such as catching the 281 bus instead of the usual 283 bus. This can ruin the whole day, and then even the basic things become nigh on impossible. To an untrained observer, they are just unruly kids who need a good hiding (some of the public really do tell you this).

    Adults with Autistic Spectrum Disorders suffer a very high level of unemployment, yet can have good days. The total mental meltdown that would occur should a nobody working in a job centre, or some one at ATOS (and my experience is that many professionals I’ve encountered know very little about ASDs) push them into a work programme without the support they do not have the skills, time or budget to provide.

  26. @Richard

    I know Wombwell very well.

    I’m amazed the Tories got 81….

  27. It’s interesting that UKIP are coming second in many different parts of the country (England for Old Nats benefit) . Though they’re not actually taking many seats, they’re almost the only truly national party.

    Labour don’t get much in the South apart from London. Tories get very little in the North. The LDs have strongholds dotted about.

  28. Of course the salient point is: Those who are capable of work.

    I am a lefty & I believe that people who are capable of work should have the opportunity to contribute to the community. Working for free in Poundies isn’t contributing to the community though, is it?

  29. I’m suprised at You/gov over these last three polls with all the advanced publicity and then the Freeze and what appear to be positive public responses we see 5% 9% 7% leads

    I expected to see Labour in a double figure lead by now, not on moving down, of course it could shoot back up tomorrow, but there conference is over and they have move out of the limelight.

    Now it’s the Tories turn I would be suprised if they make much of a issue over EM freeze, there tactic will be to concentrate on the economy, jobs, welfare and so on and talk about the things people expect government to be doing, not that energy price is’nt serious, but there was a lot of concentration on one subject by the media to the detriment of other Labour policies who’s message to the public was rather drowned out.

    But I’m not expecting a big lift for the Tories either I’m in the camp that believes conferences have little effect on the polls and what effect they have soon fades, but we will see next week and beyond.

  30. Catmanjeff

    I’ve also got Asperger’s syndrome. Your children may have it more severely than me, but i was pretty miserable as a young person. Happily I’ve grown out of most of the problems though I believe many people I know think that I am eccentric, and I am unable to do things like make speeches at my children’s weddings.
    I’ve only been unemployed for about 3 or 4 weeks in my life, despite being made redundant at least 3 times.

    I’m sure there are some hard cases when people are assessed for their ability to work but that is inevitable when huge numbers are involved. That doesn’t invalidate the point that disabled people able to work should not be exempt from workfare.

  31. Amber
    “Working for free in Poundies isn’t contributing to the community though, is it?”

    Why not? That job serves the public (or community if you prefer).

  32. PETE B

    I had guessed you were talking about your country! :-)

    Interesting, though I’m not sure it’s surprising, given the cynicism about politicians in general.

    In terms of a 4th party “breakthrough”, it’s reminiscent of the SNP in the early 1970s. Lots of votes were the classic “protest votes” for a party that they had heard of, but wasn’t one of the ones that folk had some contempt for or distrust of.

    Without a more coherent political stance (and Gordon Wilson then SNP leader was never able to provide that), it doesn’t translate into electoral success.

    I’d have thought that UKIP have a long way to go before they become serious players.

  33. Sod the Daily Mail. They resent that a Labour leader has just attacked the strong, and so respond by attacking the weak in their usual contemptible fashion, complete with leading questions. Don’t dignify it with a response.

    As for tonight’s poll, I’m not really interested in the margin, I’m interested in the Labour figure. When the Tories were polling in the uppers 20s I didn’t get carried away because I knew it would recover at some point. So long as Labour’s vote stays at 37 or more there’s no way in hell the Tories can be the largest party after the next election.

  34. Having people with special needs & people who are long-term unemployed contributing to the community will create loads of those ‘government non-jobs’ which command a good salary & annoy the beejeebers out of many Tories & Kippers.

    Each individual will need to be properly assessed to ensure that they are physically & mentally capable of carrying out the work assigned. Their attendance will need to be monitored. Their sick notes, holidays, clinic appointments etc. will need to be recorded. They’ll need training, supervision, care (meals & breaks, suitable transport, appropriate premises & work stations etc.) & on-going assessment whilst they carry out their duties. And a host of planners will be required to work with community organisations to ensure that there are enough suitable places available.

    Were such things to all be properly arranged for the benefit of the individuals & their local communities, it would be great.

  35. ““Working for free in Poundies isn’t contributing to the community though, is it?”

    Why not? That job serves the public (or community if you prefer).”

    No, it’s serving Poundies’ shareholders, no-one else. If the job needs doing, Poundies should be paying people to do it.

  36. turk

    “I’m suprised at You/gov over these last three polls with all the advanced publicity and then the Freeze and what appear to be positive public responses we see 5% 9% 7% leads

    I expected to see Labour in a double figure lead by now, not on moving down,”

    and later…………………

    ” I’m in the camp that believes conferences have little effect on the polls”

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    Turk, with respect [as they say] it sometimes appears that by the time you get towards the end of a post you’ve forgotten what you wrote at the beginning.

  37. @Pete B

    What about people with mental health issues – depression, bi-polar etc. It is often very difficult when the illness is bad for them to work. Would they be included?

    If workfare is taken too far it could become another ‘bedroom tax’ which had gone from popular to a loser when the effects became known.

    A point about the ‘bedroom tax’. Labour has promised to abolish it – little reported because of the energy price freeze but important to Labour activists and to the many people effected. I am surprised that Lab have rather got away with this – maybe another example of how good at tactics Ed is, no screaming DM headlines about Lab handing out money to the undeserving poor.

  38. Exactly Robin !

  39. Amber
    Why do they need these hosts of bureaucrats? Why don’t they just get on with it like everyone else?

    I know there are severely disabled people who would need a lot of support (though some of what you mention is just part of a normal HR department’s task). But what about someone with an IQ of say 80? Or someone with an artificial leg? I can’t see why they shouldn’t just muck in.

    I guess I’m just old-fashioned. Off to bed now.

  40. Amber

    Agreed that such would be a characteristic of a civilised society – just as long as the “planners” and others providing the support services aren’t just highly paid middle class professionals parachuted in from the Newton Mearns of this world, to dispense charitable care to the needy!

    Many disabled (I really don’t like that word) people have the skills – though they may need to be deployed in teams to cover periods of absence due to illness.

  41. @ Pete B

    Why not? That job serves the public (or community if you prefer).
    ——————-
    I said contribute to the community, not serve the public. So the ‘joke’ which you made by taking the word “serve” literally completely missed the mark, I’m afraid.

  42. @Amber Star

    That is why I think we should only have workfare if we have close to full employment until then we should focus all our efforts of the ones that want to work.

  43. Had to turn the telly off when This Week was on as the pups were so cross at Portillo’s continued badgering of Jaqui Smith, they wouldn’t stop wuffing at him to shut up.

    He seems to be getting worse at this and cut across Andrew Neill’s questions constantly. Alternatively he acted out over-the-top expressions of incredulity at anyone who didn’t share his opinions.

  44. The unemployed can kiss goodbye to any chance of a proper job when they’re competing with people paid £0 an hour by the lucky retailer that’s gifted something for nothing by the DWP.

  45. And there we go.

    The debate just moved on from Ed will save us from the evil energy companies (suitable trigger words like ‘price freeze to ensure a robust response from the right, allowing the left to paint the Tories as only looking after their big buddies in the corporates) (unite the left)

    to

    IDS will save us from the idle. (suitable trigger words ‘disabled’; ‘work for free’ added to ensure a robust response from the left, allowing them to make the case that Labour is just looking after the idle.) (unite the right)

    And so the show moves on :) Politics….

    I wonder what would happen if the other side came up with a better response and didn’t fall for the bait each time?

  46. St James (Tendring D.C.) by-election result: Con 445 (49.8% -6.9%), UKIP 196 (21.9% Didn’t stand), Lab 135 (15.1% -2.1%), Tendring First 82 (9.2% -8.6%), LD 35 (3.9% -0.8%).

    Looks like UKIP took votes from everyone but least from Labour – not counting the LibDems who had hardly any votes to take!

    Incidentally, the overall turn out was 26%. The turn out amongst postal voters was 68%.

  47. RICHARD

    That sounds like the eternal cry of whoever is in opposition – “They” should be concentrating on “Z” instead of “A-Y” because no one can think about more than one problem at a time. – as well as “there are only two sides”.

  48. “If all the year were playing holidays,

    To sport would be as tedious as to work,

    But when they seldom come, they wished for come,

    And nothing pleaseth but rare accidents.”

    The above, from WS, is one of the pups’ favourite quotations and, in my opinion sums up why the possibility of total inactivity is so bad for human beings – or animals.

    The number of people who have never worked and are members of families who have never worked is appalling. But suddenly penalising them, or those with disabilities, is a poor response is, as a society, we haven’t sorted out a positive role for them to play within it.

    There is an analogy there to charging people more for an “extra” bedroom but then not giving them the option of a home without one.

    Whatever happened to Blair’s “joined up government” ?

  49. @ Old Nat

    Many disabled (I really don’t like that word) people have the skills – though they may need to be deployed in teams to cover periods of absence due to illness.
    ——————-
    I completely agree. The reason why ‘disabled’ people, who have so much to contribute, are unable to “get a proper job & just get on with it” is because they have special needs as well as skills.

    Here’s a good example, a blind barrister who can no longer work has just won his ‘bedroom tax’ case against Westminster Council. His ‘spare’ room is required for all the additional equipment etc. which a blind person needs just to cope with normal, daily life. So let’s say he is assessed to be the ideal person to work for a community legal advice centre in return for his social security payments. He needs an office with enough space for his special equipment, he needs to be introduced to his work place & will need assistance until he learns where everything is. The people he works with will need to be trained to keep walkways clear, to not ever have cables or flexes trailing, to assist for fire drills etc. I know all this because I have employed people with special needs. They are as skilled, hard-working & reliable as the next person but they do have special needs. Folks, like Pete B, who say just let them get on with it or those who pretend (in the interests of equality) that their needs are no different to ‘ordinary’ workers are not being realistic.

    If the Tories are going to use their conference to announce the multi-million pound per annum investment in people which a good proposal would require, I will be absolutely delighted. But if it’s just empty rhetoric – where the strong castigate the weak for not ‘pulling themselves up by their bootstraps’ – I will be dismayed.

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