The Sun have tweeted tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures – toplines are CON 32%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%. The Labour lead is up to nine points, the biggest for three weeks or so, and suggests a positive reaction to the conference announcements.

Usual caveats for any poll showing interesting movements apply, especially for the sometimes up and down polls of conference season (some years it doesn’t have much effect on polls, some years they are up and down like a rollercoaster after each conference). Last week we had a narrowing of the Labour lead following the Lib Dem conference, this week a boost in the Labour lead following their conference. Next up we have the Conservative conference – will the Labour conference boost be sustained so they end up the net beneficiaries of conference season? Or will it fade away again once the immediate publicity passes? Or indeed will the Conservatives get their own conference boost next week?


462 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 41, LD 8, UKIP 11”

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  1. Centrica plc lists these as its most “material shareholders” :-

    Invesco 4.97%
    Legal & General 3.8%

  2. @colin,

    Very true.

    It’s also damaged both private and public pension pots.

  3. An interesting view thrown into the melting pot…..

    “Ed Miliband is right to set out plans to freeze energy bills because the market is not working properly and desperately needs reform, a former Tory Treasury minister and prominent businessman has said.”

    “I welcome Ed Miliband’s proposal for a price freeze of gas and electricity for a period covering two winters,” he said.

    “This will bring much needed relief to all consumers. It will also provide an opportunity to re-examine the balance that regulated industries must strike between the profits they make and the prices they charge.

    “Scare stories put out by the energy companies that the lights will go out proves Ed Miliband’s point that this is a market that isn’t working properly and that desperately needs reform. This is not about socialism, it is about fairness.”

  4. And that person is …….

    Anthony Nelson, who served in Sir John Major’s government, said people should not listen to the scare stories put out by energy companies, who claim the plans could lead to blackouts.

    The banker and ex-chairman of Southern Water dismissed the idea that this is a socialist proposal by Labour, saying he believes there needs to be a review of the balance between the profits energy firms make and the prices they charge.

  5. RICH

    Of course-any pension fund holding on of these stocks.

    I can see now why Invesco exploded with such strong language !

  6. @Rich and Col
    Is the same money that they are giving to their shareholders as the money they’re investing in to keep the lights on?

    I wasn’t aware that these six companies were on such a knife edge.

  7. Ann in Wales.
    Weather good, beach great.

    Today we had Annette Brooke in our school, talking about Faith, Coalition Voting and the Party Whips.

  8. CLOUD SPOTTER

    Pension Funds are interested in the movement of share prices as well as dividends.

    Centrica’s 2012 Annual Report shows :-
    Pre-Tax Profit ( excluding EIs) of £2.379bn
    Out of this Taxation was £1.029 bn & Dividend £ £0.816bn

    Capital Expenditure in the year on Gas Production & Storage & Power Generation was £1.957 Bn.

  9. Interesting to note that Anthony Nelson’s comments were not mentioned by the BBC but Mandelsons were everywhere.

  10. I have to admit that even my mouth fell open when I saw this!
    http://www.npower.com/home/index.htm

  11. Chris Lane,dare I ask what the consensus was?

  12. PAUL BRISTOL

    Why?

    Most if not all the energy companies ( like mortgage companies) offer fixed rate deals as well as variable rate deals.

    The date is a cheeky bit of humour though !

  13. With regards the NPower advert. It will send the Tory election strategists potty. With the words “Why wait for Ed”, not only is it free advertising for Ed M’s policy and in itself will continue to keep it in the news. It is also predicting Ed M will win the election…..hence the waiting for Ed. Lynton, Messina and Shapps will be absolutely furious.

  14. @ Rich and @ Anthony Wells

    I know that Hungary is an obscure country, but it is an EU member and it forced energy companies to reduce prices. The energy companies did not test it at court (for good reasons), the Commission kept out and the firms complied – this happened a few months ago.

    If a Labour government comes in, it can do whatever it wants in this, providing that the decision is properly written.

  15. @ Turk

    I ‘got’ your joke; hence my reply.

    Even though we don’t get emoticons anymore, I still add
    ;-) when it might not be obvious that I’m being facetious or making a (usually lame) joke.

  16. @Colin

    Well they do seem to spend a fair bit buying up assets for the vertical integration thing.

  17. I would go as far as saying I can quite imagine that advert will get pulled as being too political and giving free advertising to one parties policies.

  18. It will be interesting to know if npower has a stall in the lobby of the Tory party Conference next week.

  19. It is being reported that Nigel Farage thinks he is going to lose votes due to ‘Red Ed’. So perhaps there is a plan with the Conservative media here. Try and scare the UKIP voters home?

    Beth Rigby [email protected] 11h
    Bumped into @Nigel_Farage Says Lab’s energy bill freeze may help Cons 2015 by pushing would-be Ukipers back 2 Tories for fear of Red Ed

    So the numbers I’ll be watching over the next week are the UKIP number (but if that drops will be due to bloomgate or red ed?). So far seems to be holding remarkably steady despite lots of bad press.

    And then see what is happening with those 2010 non voters? Are they going to Labour? Are they moving into the more likely to vote column?

  20. Red Rag,
    I think it was Peter Oborne who said that if ED provoked a bidding war before
    The next election that could only be for the good of everyone.

  21. @ Colin & Rich

    The pension companies are in for the long-term; unless they panic sell, they are not going to lose anything. I’d bet there’ll be more pension firms out there trying to snap up these shares at the lower price than pension firms which are selling down their current position.

  22. Paul Bristol,
    Apparently all the big Six energy companies have stalls at the CPC.Oh dear .

  23. Paul Bristol – All of the Big Six have a stall in the Conservative Party Conference. You won’t get a minister within a mile of one due to the fear of getting pictured there.

  24. And of course if energy prices come down before the election ed can imply that it’s cos the energy companies are scared of him

  25. Ann – The only people that will be happy seeing them there will be the Bankers who have stalls there. At least now they won’t be the least popular stall at the CPC.

  26. Putting my head on the line. Prediction for tonight

    Lab 42
    Con 32
    Lib 12
    Ukip 10

    Back to double figure leads.

  27. RIN – If the energy prices come down Ed can say “Only the Labour Party will promise to keep them low for 20 months”.

  28. RIN – Spin the coin….If the prices go up Ed can say “Only the Labour Party can stop them going higher”.

  29. @Ann In Wales

    Yesterday they were threatening to turn the lights out …today they have thrown in the towel with ‘Why wait for Ed?’
    I would love to be a fly on the wall over the npower stall at next week’s conference.

    EM is building a consistent theme here ………Murdoch, Syrian interventionists, power companies …..”your boys took a ell of a beating” …… who is this man that that we don’t recognise from the media portrayal!? ;-)

    It does make me wonder what else he has up his sleeve? I have the feeling that the raft of polices announced this week was merely an orderve.

    It’s going to be interesting how DC reacts to all this.

  30. Paul Bristol – The will be drip fed at the right time between now and the next election….trust me ;-)

  31. Red rag

    If prices go up ed wins the election, so they won’t go up much unless he’s absolutely certain to win

  32. Let’s be positive. How about:

    Con 29 Lab 44 LD 7 UKIP 9

  33. I’m going to be dismal on the Labour side and say:

    Con 32
    Lab 39
    LD 9
    UKIP 9

  34. I’ll go for

    Lab 45
    Con 34
    UKIP 8
    LD 8

  35. For the hell of it

    Lab 39
    Con 33
    Lib 9

  36. This argument that government shouldn’t provide consumer protections for fear of hurting private companies’ stock prices is a new one to me, I must say.

    Perhaps the Tesco horsemeat scandal should have been hushed up? We wouldn’t want to hurt any pensions investing in Tesco, after all.

    And the Millie Dowler scandal…. what about all those poor investors in News International? Surely they’re more important than the family of one girl. When you think about it it’s almost criminal what the Guardian did breaking that story, putting all those investment portfolios at risk!

    Or maybe… people could divest in companies with massively dodgy business practices and put their money somewhere a bit more ethical. FFS.

  37. Colin

    I know the Sun is not a good source of information but Dunn is claiming tonight on twitter that npowers offer to fix prices has been around for about three weeks pre conference do you know if that’s right.

  38. Flipping Heck Nick P and I thought I was the raving lefty optimist.

    Even if it was 44/29/7/9 – Dan Hodges next article would be “Ed M and Labour Party in polling meltdown” :-)

  39. Turk – However the free advertising of Ed M’s new policy and the prediction of Ed M winning the election splashed all over their main advert, has not been around for weeks.

    NPower = Ed’s favourite energy supplier.

  40. @ Nick P

    44/29/7/9
    ———–
    You’re expecting it to still be neck & neck then?

  41. “It does make me wonder what else he has up his sleeve? I have the feeling that the raft of polices announced this week was merely an hors d’oeuvre”

    ———-

    Well apparently any new Labour policies are against the law now!!

  42. Tonights poll – 40/33/9/11

    Still in the 40’s so still very happy.

  43. Erm…that’s the Yougov by the way.

  44. @ Red Rag

    Did TN-D of the Sun tweet the 40/33/9/11?

  45. sigh…would be nice to see them actually move for a change :)

  46. Prediction

    Con 31
    Lab 41
    LD 8
    Ukip.11

    Energy companies have always had fixed price options. EDF’s Blue tariff characterised by dancing flame Zingy, offered a means of fixing the tariff for 2 years.

    Hence the oddity of the energy companies railing against capping.

  47. @Amber, yes

    Tom Newton Dunn [email protected] 4m
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour 7 point lead. CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. Conference bounce fading perhaps.

  48. That’s my Sunday prediction btw.

  49. Ann – Looks like Red Ed is winning the battle and the war:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Most Brits not worried by blackouts. 58% don’t think energy price freeze would mean power cuts, 27% think it would.

    Lets all give a big cheer for NPower by the way ;-)

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