This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Full tabs are here. With YouGov’s polls having narrowed a bit of late, it’s actually the biggest Labour lead they’ve shown since the end of August. Normal caveats apply – it could be the positive publicity and policy announcements of Labour’s conference, or could just be perfectly normal variation within the margin of error.

Meanwhile the Monday version of Populus’s twice-weekly poll showed results of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 9%. Positive for the Lib Dems following their conference, but otherwise pretty typical of Populus’s recent polls. Full tabs here.

Finally there was a new TNS BMRB poll yesterday, their once weekly voting intention polls having become rather sporadic (the previous published one I can find was back in June). Topline figures are CON 29%(+1), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 14%(+1) – changes are apparently from a poll a fortnight ago that I don’t believe was released at the time. Full tabs are here.

Note that in this case the ten point lead is certainly NOT a reflection of Labour’s recent policy announcements – fieldwork for the poll was conducted from the 12th-16th September, so was actually mostly done before the Lib Dem conference, let alone the Labour one.


542 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and TNS figures”

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  1. @ TOH

    I don’t avoid tax. Am I insensible? Unsensible? I don’t have an ISA; I don’t believe that incentivising saving via the tax system whilst encouraging maximum borrowing by keeping interest rates low is coherent policy.

  2. Amber Star

    Sorry your response has lost me completely. Could you explain please.

    rosieanddaisie

    Ditto to the above.

  3. Must be referring back to what I said awhile back, R and D. John P raised the issue too.

    But populist policies aren’t necessarily ‘rubbish’ and so don’t necessarily ‘pander’. A ‘populist’ policy could be a perfectly good one, but it will (as I understand the word) be aimed at manipulating people – and not necessarily just the pejoratively named ‘masses’ – to like the policy maker.

    I am sure the Eds and their strategists had populist intentions, as well as intending to be popular. They wouldn’t be politicians if they were utterly immune to such things, would they? All the same, I rather wish I had just said ‘popular’, because I can see that talk of ‘populist’ policies, expressed with the implication that those policies are also rubbish, is going to become a Central Office attack line. Wise after the event, alas.

  4. missis star

    we don’t understand your burfdy intervention – we’re oany littul.

    Please explain.

  5. toh

    Well, when posters have made multiple comments it is not very precise to refer to “your comment” – ergo, which one?

  6. @ TOH

    You are probly thinking of St Ives where owr Daisie is celebrating her FIRST burfdy.
    ——————
    Your response: Just a friendly warning, some of us much prefer birds to dogs so I would be obliged if you leave out comments like that.
    ——————
    You have misread burfdy as birdy, I think. It is first birthday i.e. Daisie is one year old today.

    Happy birthday, Daisie. :-)

  7. Paul (and/or your dogs) –

    IIRC we’ve done it at some point in the past – asked a split sample about a new policy, told one half it was a Conservative policy, the other half a Labour policy, with predictable results.

    Will try to track it down, but can’t remember what the fictional policy was!

  8. @ Rosie&Daisie

    See my response to TOH :-)

  9. CD

    No – twernt you. We wouldn’t be rude to a famous conductor.

    It is funny how the words are used differently [usually] though.

  10. Lordy, R and D, if I’m a famous conductor, I’m also dead.

  11. Here goes –

    In this case it was the famous Public Affairs Act – we told one group that Conservative politicians wanted to repeal it, the other half that Labour politicians wanted to repeal it, with consequential results:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lxi3dxkhp1/YG-Archive-Public-Affairs-Act-results-150413.pdf

    In this case, of course, most people said don’t know as they have no idea what the Public Affairs Act is (it doesn’t exist – it’s traditionally asked as a dummy question to see what percentage of people give an opinion even under those circumstances!). If we’d done the same with something that sounded like a policy that either the Conservatives or Labour could plausibly have supported I expect the result would have been clearer.

  12. amber

    thankyou.

    [do you really think toh can’t read Fs proply??? His dad should make him wuff the letters out loud like ours did]

    Daisie [aged won]

  13. TURK.

    THanks-agreed entirely-especially:-
    “The public now have a choice between a centre right party and a left wing socialist party, we will see if the country really is left wing in it’s views or is conservative with a small c .”

    AMBER

    Ah-you spotted that government spending in excess of tax revenue is funded by borrowing.

    Since Ed has stopped talking about that, I forgot to mention it.

    BLAZEAWAY

    @” think Labour will come badly unstuck on the electricity/gas thing when people realise that 30% of current bills are comprised of taxes and ‘carbon charges’.”

    A very good point-partic as EM was an Energy Minister.

    But I doubt whether the average punter will cotton on to this , unless someone makes a thing of exxplaining it.
    Angela Knight has been trying-but who listens to her.
    And presumably ED Davey isn’t going to tell us how much his green policies are costing us all.

  14. Amber Star

    Thank you, but of course as always we disagree. I suspect you are in a tiny minority but then so am I on a number of issues.

    rosieanddaisie

    My apologies i must put my glasses on more often. Happy birthday to your dog.

  15. ”I regard the current Tory party as slightly to the left of centre. if that helps.”

    I wasn’t exactly seeking ”help”, TOH, but in the light of your offer, I’ll rephrase the comment of mine that prompted it: ”If the current Tory party is slightly left of centre, what can the centre be like?.

  16. @ Rosie&Daisy

    To further explain: My interpretation of TOH’s comment was that he believed Daisie was celebrating having either caught or even killed her first bird (some gundogs will finish off a bird which has been injured or wounded but not killed by gunshot).

    I can’t think of any other explanation for his comment warning you that you’ve upset him because he’s fond of birds.

  17. toh

    “rosieanddaisie

    My apologies i must put my glasses on more often. Happy birthday to your dog.”

    We haven’t got a dog.

  18. @Colin

    Chris Husbands conducted a review of apprenticeships for the Labour Party and using information from the PAC and BIS claims that (amongst other things)

    – One in five apprenticeships lasts for less than six months, and 20% of all apprentices report receiving no training at all.
    viii

    – A total of 70% of apprentices are not new job entrants but existing employees, up from 48% in 2007, and 94% of these apprentices are over 25 years old.

    (Report here: http://feweek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/something-for-something.pdf)

    Now, you may well counter with, ‘They would say that’, but the reason Labour did this is because providers and trainees themselves have expressed repeated concerns about the quality of provision and the Husbands report evidences a lot of existing concerns.

  19. Colin

    The problem with Angela knight is that she represented the banks during the GFC and famously said there was no problem with Libor

  20. Colin Davis

    Many things of course, in extreme cases fascism, although I cannot see much difference between the effectson humanity of Nazi party on the extreme right and Soviet Communism on the extreme left.

    I would regard myself as being of the right, libertarian economically and conservative socially. Does that answer your question?

  21. @Anthony

    I think that is one of my all time favourite pieces of social research.

  22. Rosie and daisie have a pet human

  23. Amber Star

    Many thanks for your explanation to Paul. Saved me doing it.

  24. Thanks Anthony: shame you can’t get empirical evidence with a real policy without a time machine or kidnapping a lot of people for a while…. actually…………….

  25. @ TOH

    That we are both against the killing of birds as entertainment gives us at least one thing in common. :-)

  26. EDWARD
    “Interesting to see what the Tory response will be to the Miliband speech.”

    Greg Braker, Con Minister for Energy & Climate Change, responded by tweeting a press release by npower !

    Honestly, if I hadn’t seen it for myself, I would have thought somebody was trying to wind me up !

    Greg Barker [email protected] 21h
    npower response to Labour energy policy announcement http://www.npowermediacentre.com/Press-releases/npower-response-to-Labour-energy-policy-announcement-12b9.aspx

  27. Whilst disagreeing with much that he said I thought EM did rather well yesterday and I suspect there will be a poll bounce for him and Labour. Certainly he wowed the Party faithful.

    I also agree with Turk and Colin that there is now clear water between the Tories and Labour. Who will the voters choose in 2015?

    So two conferences gone and no meanibgfull ideas about how we should be tackling the economic problems facing us. I wonder if the Tories will do any better?

  28. @ Colin

    Ah-you spotted that government spending in excess of tax revenue is funded by borrowing.
    ————–
    QE is printing, not borrowing. At least that’s how the government are treating it – notional interest credited back to the Treasury took you by surprise, IIRC.

  29. @ Colin

    Thank you for the link to the government press release regarding apprenticeships. Do you think £25M investment is enough? The results from such a tiny program are incredible! I would think that NEETS could be down to almost zero, were the government to put more funding into this scheme. What is the planned future spend, do you know?

  30. @ Marco

    Don’t trust everything that you find on the internet (this time comparison of energy prices).

  31. @ Marco

    Energy prices are rising faster in the UK than in any other country in the EU, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

    The OECD report found UK energy prices are 2.2% higher than last year. The rate of energy price inflation is four times the increase in Germany, while prices actually fell in France, Belgium, Denmark and Spain.

  32. “rosieanddaisie

    We haven’t got a dog. What ever animals you have got then.

  33. TOH

    “What ever animals you have got then.”

    Fleas?

  34. Coalition talks in Norway have broken up, all 4 leaders will be talking to their parties tonight. Some mixed signals, they are all saying this is just a pause but are avoiding questions about the likelihood of success for the 4 party negotiations

  35. TOH

    I already told you they have a pet human, sometimes humans become delusional and believe that dogs are the pets but all dogs know that it is the other way around

  36. @Laszlo& Marco

    “Don’t trust everything that you find on the internet (this time comparison of energy prices)”

    —particularly, one might add, when posted by that bastion of political neutrality Paul Staines (aka Guido)!

  37. CHRIS RILEY

    I might.

    RiN

    I am aware of that-which is why I said “who listens to her”.

    AMBER
    @”QE is printing, not borrowing. ”

    QE is the purchase of Assets in the market by the Central Bank.
    I am aware that it isn’t “borrowing”.

    I don’t know what the future spend on apprenticeships is-what is Labour’s intended spend?

  38. Love the article title here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24238073

    “Most graduates in Scotland secure jobs or training”

    Given that unemployment is below 10%, we can safely say that ‘most non-graduates secure jobs or training’.

    Silly statement.

  39. @The other Howard,
    ‘So two conferences gone and no meanibgfull ideas about how we should be tackling the economic problems facing us. I wonder if the Tories will do any better?’

    But the Tories are the main party in Government and are actually tackling the economy already – whether you or others agree with the policies or whether they are going too little or too far is another thing but they are tackling it.
    I presume you mean how do they continue to tackle it!

  40. Sine Nomine

    Agreed, I was trying to be non partisan.

  41. So 2 conferences down. I to go.

    According to this report the conservatives’ strategy is all immigration.

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2013/09/lynton-crosby-lectures-tory-mps-on-immigration-at-secret-hotel-event/

    “FT Westminster has gleaned a few other titbits from the event. Forget about Andrew Cooper’s strategy of trying to win over certain voter groups (C2 women, younger urbanites, higher income ethnic minorities), Crosby’s key message was that the key to success in 2015 is to get its immigration message right.”

    As an immigrant myself I hope this is not more dividing the country and saying I am somehow less of a human because I was born in a different country.

    Personally I think Crosby is misreading the polls. People say it is an important issue, but when it comes to important issues for you personally it drops down the list. Will that really drive voting intention? Perhaps they have to do it to get their UKIP people back.

    You would hope that leaders could lead, and change public opinion on things like this rather than pander to it. I fear they are going to do the latter. Hope I am wrong.

  42. @Richard

    If they get back 3-5% of their UKIP support, they are level or beating Labour, if current polling is accurate (3-5% lead).

    There are some who have gone to UKIP on that issue alone, and they’re not all Conservatives, so who knows what benefits such a theme might have (if indeed that is the theme).

    Personally, I believe it will be more economy-heavy.

  43. RICHARD

    “Crosby’s key message was that the key to success in 2015 is to get its immigration message right.”

    I hope that’s true, because it’s a moronic strategy.

  44. @Statgeek

    No, it’s not a silly statement, because they’re talking about the annual destination data, which is taken six months after graduating.

    To therefore compare with the average unemployment rate of all employees across the whole of Scotland isn’t a very helpful measure, especially when the media is bombarding us with the message that graduates can’t get jobs.

    Graduates can and do get jobs, and the more people say it, the better because it’s often not the message they’re getting from the popular media.

  45. Immigration is the big trap in British Politics…

    First is that policy polling is rubbish. People are just entirely bad at giving reliable answers on this in polling. Unless it’s a poll of a specific referenda question, policy polling will be meaningless because people are answering a question that is a third or fourth order influence on their decision at the ballot box.

    Second, even if you take that people “want something done” about Immigration, or any other policy area… They may be bitterly opposed to any of the proposed policies that actually do anything. A sentiment that it should be improved, does not automatically translate into acceptance of any attempt to improve it.

    Third, specifically with Immigration, the Conservative party keep trying this. They see that it’s high in policy polling, they have UKIP on their right flank agitating about it, but they never seem to remember that it’s never won them votes. And it misunderstands why people switch their vote to UKIP, which really has nothing to do with Europe and Immigration and everything to do with “It were better in the good old days”. Anything that the Conservatives say they would do on immigration, UKIP will just deride as not going far enough.

    Fourth. Yes, we actually need a pretty steady flow of immigration right now. The ageing population, and underfunding of training in critical areas in the 80s and 90s, means a lot of areas really really need a workforce we don’t have natively.

    It bemuses me to why Immigration keeps being hoist as a policy focus. It’d be politically better to say as little as possible on the subject.

  46. I’m finding some of the coverage of Miliband’s speech and policy announcements mildly amusing. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t seems to be the stance. Not long ago his arch-critics were condemning him for being a policy-free zone but now that he’s announced a plethora of policies, the same people are now saying he’s made a fatal tactical mistake, exposing them to 20 months of scrutiny by his enemies.

    Is it any wonder that most people with half a brain and a desire for a fruitful and meaningful life give politics a miss these days? It’s fast becoming a moronic world of yah-boo; my party right or wrong.

    Very sad and I’m starting to think we get the politics, and politicians, we deserve.

  47. Sky.News -The Treasury.to.take legal action.against the EU Commission’s proposal to cap banker’s bonuses to twice basic salary.

    Kay Burley to Mark Kleinman: This is political suicide.

    Kleinman.appeared to agree.

    What on earth are the Tories doing?

  48. “Very sad and I’m starting to think we get the politics, and politicians, we deserve”

    Very true: same with the majority of the press who lie more blatantly than the politicians but to a receptive audience who actually pay to read their rubbish.

    Most of them should be called The Daily Bollox.

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