This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Full tabs are here. With YouGov’s polls having narrowed a bit of late, it’s actually the biggest Labour lead they’ve shown since the end of August. Normal caveats apply – it could be the positive publicity and policy announcements of Labour’s conference, or could just be perfectly normal variation within the margin of error.

Meanwhile the Monday version of Populus’s twice-weekly poll showed results of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 9%. Positive for the Lib Dems following their conference, but otherwise pretty typical of Populus’s recent polls. Full tabs here.

Finally there was a new TNS BMRB poll yesterday, their once weekly voting intention polls having become rather sporadic (the previous published one I can find was back in June). Topline figures are CON 29%(+1), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 14%(+1) – changes are apparently from a poll a fortnight ago that I don’t believe was released at the time. Full tabs are here.

Note that in this case the ten point lead is certainly NOT a reflection of Labour’s recent policy announcements – fieldwork for the poll was conducted from the 12th-16th September, so was actually mostly done before the Lib Dem conference, let alone the Labour one.


542 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and TNS figures”

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  1. RAF

    Seems strange, but it’s may be an inevitable result of the dependence on the London finance industry.

    “The British Bankers’ Association has predicted that 35,000 bank employees around the world will be affected by the cap, approximately two-thirds of whom are based in the UK.”

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/osborne-takes-legal-action-over-eu-bonus-cap-141720801–finance.html#7fs4FLk

  2. Oh dear, moderation. I instantly realise why, my apologies Anthony.

    With a change of wording:

    @Richard
    “As an immigrant myself I hope this is not more dividing the country and saying I am somehow less of a human because I was born in a different country. ”
    This is such a strawman.

    @Jayblanc
    “And it misunderstands why people switch their vote to UKIP, which really has nothing to do with Europe and Immigration”

    Nonsense, nonsense, & treble nonsense.

    “It bemuses me to why Immigration keeps being hoist as a policy focus. It’d be politically better to say as little as possible on the subject.”
    That’s the kind of attitude that drove BNPs’ peak a few years back.

  3. AW

    Interesting that the over65s had the lowest “Neither” response on the Public Affairs Act question.

    Them old fogeys eh? Opinions on everything.

  4. AW
    I cited an USA similar poll by (I think) Gallup, which produced similar results a while back. You could give republican tea party people Christmas every day of the week, but if it is stated as an Obama policy, it will be roundly condemned.

    I suspect one could be bolder; the title chosen in your UK one was possibly a bit ‘socialist’ in its impact (‘public’ anything sound so).

    Perhaps ‘Personal Consumption Act’ (which could either have clauses stopping people putting what they like down their throats – or the opposite ‘do your own thing’) could be a good spoof.

  5. For those that did not see my post earlier this week, I am now back on the thread but have dropped the ‘of the BNP’ as I no longer claim any affiliation with the party due to certain events at Blackpool. I am considering returning to the Tory fold but the conference will decide me.

    Reg (previously of the BNP)

  6. now

  7. Sky.News -The Treasury.to.take legal action.against the EU Commission’s proposal to cap banker’s bonuses to twice basic salary.

    What on earth are the Tories doing?
    ————-
    Ensuring Labour can fund all their lefty policies by taxing bank bonuses? :-)

  8. Amber

    What lefty policies?

  9. REGINALD,

    It’s good to have you back! Hope you’ve been well :)

    What happened in Blackpool??

  10. @AW

    Can I ask again whether polling companies can reasonably aim to get within 3 per cent of the percentage vote for an individual party or 3 per cent of the gap between the two leading parties? As the next election is likely to be close it is a relevant question when deciding how much trust to place in the ability of an individual poll.to determine the likely result

  11. Alex – what happens in Blackpool stays in Blackpool, surely :p

    What do people think the chances are of Cameron trying to hit Miliband back on his own ground (aka using his conference speech to scare people about the risks of Miliband’s energy policies) versus him trying to unveil some new policy initiatives of some sort?

  12. Alex Harvey

    The caravan they hold the Conference in was stolen

    LOL

  13. Psst, Reg:

    Pick a manifesto pledge for me to adopt! Don’t leave me in suspense here…

    Although I suppose if you’re defecting we should wait until after the Tory Conference so you can decide whether or not to make it a Tory one! :)

  14. @James Baillie

    “What do people think the chances are of Cameron trying to hit Miliband back on his own ground (aka using his conference speech to scare people about the risks of Miliband’s energy policies) versus him trying to unveil some new policy initiatives of some sort?”

    If the rumours circulating are accurate then it seems Cameron’s response to Millibands ‘populist’ and ‘socialist’ speech centering around bashing big business is to do a ‘populist’ and ‘right-wing’ speech centering around bashing/fear mongering about immigrants.

    This could lead to a fun few years :)

  15. @ Anarchists Unite

    “Cameron………to do a ‘populist’ and ‘right-wing’ speech centering around bashing/fear mongering about immigrants.”

    He wouldn’t dare, surely?

    I suspect more likely is that he will try and paint Miliband as “irresponsible and reckless” and try and portray himself as a “safe pair of hands – statesman-like”

  16. Then whip his top off and throw it into the crowd, as Ed has pledged not to do!

  17. Charles – the margin of error is on individual scores, not the lead (though frankly most pollsters would hope to get closer to the right lead that that – the point is merely that, when there is a margin of error of plus or minus three points, comparing pollsters by looking at a single data point each when they are all within a point or two of each other is dumb)

  18. AU
    I don’t think DC will say much about immigration as it will surely be a dangerous area for him. They have been in power three years and there are still as many foreign looking people around as three years ago. One has to remember that the ‘immigrant’ fear is actually based on fear of the people who are already here and have every right to be. So they may have different ethnicity but they were born here or have acquired nationality, or they are EU immigrants who are similarly not removable.

    So what are you going to promise as DC? That you will be (are being) stricter about new applications? That won’t work with the EU people as they don’t need to apply. The others – a dribs and drabs story surely?

    I don’t see conference speeches as having any lasting impact on VI unless a new significant direction is announced. Such was Osborne’s announcement on inheritance tax before the last election and he didn’t even need to implement it eventually!!!!
    Got a major change in VI though!

    Clever stuff.

  19. People,

    A knee-jerk negative reaction to BNP voters such as Reg is why people feel ignored and vote BNP.

    I think it’s counterproductive.

  20. @ Anthony

    If the margin of error is on each of the individual scores does this mean that the gap between the two major parties (+3 or -3 on each) could be portrayed as somewhere between either 6 or 0 all within MOE?

    If so, doesn’t it makes opinion polling virtually meaningless in terms of predicting outcomes?

  21. @ Tony,

    If so, doesn’t it makes opinion polling virtually meaningless in terms of predicting outcomes?

    No, because you can aggregate the data from multiple polls/pollsters to put together a picture of the underlying political reality. Individual polls can be inaccurate, but Nate Silver is spot-on.

    The polls do contain information, it’s just a question of figuring out how to extract it.

  22. Wow, Automod Gawn Mad.

    Is “inaccurate” a trigger word now?

  23. Evidently not.

  24. Alex Harvey

    Do you mean back to the thread or back to the Tory party? Thanks for the welcome, anyhow, it’s certainly warmer than some of the posts you recieve (or rather don’t recieve) as a BNP poster. I am doing fine, thanks… life’s a bit business-pressurised but otherwise okay. BNP conferences have always been a negative part of party membership for me but the preparations for this years were particularly bad (not organisational – they are relatively organised).

    Spearmint

    A manifesto pledge from whom. By the way, I seem to recall a bet made with you a month or so back. I believe that I have won at least half the bet. Please remind me.

  25. @Tony Dean

    No, it doesn’t. Remember that the ‘margin of error’ is a convenient shorthand for the likely bounds of variation, it’s not even a guarantee that the real number lies within these bounds. However you might want to consider a different question: what is the most likely value for party X? If you have a single poll then the most likely number is the value that the poll gives. Where you have other evidence you enter the wonderful world of Rev Bayes, but until then the simple answer is that two parties that are three points apart are probably three points a apart.

  26. @ Reg,

    Yes, that’s what I’m on about. Our stakes were that the winner (you) should pick a manifesto pledge from their favoured party’s manifesto that the loser (me) would have to make a case for their party to adopt. So dish me up a pledge!

    (Or, since the question of your favoured party is currently in flux, should we wait until after the Tory conference for you to decide?)

  27. Er, 2010 manifesto, that is, since we obviously don’t know the 2015 ones yet. (And by ‘pledge’ I really mean policy.)

  28. Spearmint

    You’ve got me thinking. I might wait and see as you suggest…

  29. The negotiations are back on tomorrow, all 4 party leaders received the go ahead to continue negotiations for the moment but it seems that the two centre parties are reluctant, there was a newspaper report that the leader of the Christians would recommend leaving the talks, it turned out that the report was wrong which is strange since it came from the most pro Christian democrat newspaper that usually knows what’s going on inside the party

  30. Who’s running the country while this happens? Are the Red-Greens still in charge until the new coalition takes over?

  31. @Tony – yes it means that, but the extreme ends of margin of error for each party, you’d expect to see less than 1 time in 10 (1 in 20 either end), so the extreme ends of the lead you’d expect to see in less than 1 poll out of 100.

  32. @RiN

    I am always amazed how voters in these multi-party list PR systems don’t feel totally excluded from the political process while all this bartering goes on.

    At least with our FPTP “hire & fire” system, most of the voters “feel” as if they have “had a say” in who is the government. This may be and in fact is an illusion. However, isn’t having so many parties carrying democracy too far?

  33. Apologies – I do have a log in, but I have forgotten it.

    Would it be possible to aggregate the Scottish VI for Westminster and Holyrood since the 2011 on the same graph? This is a pretty important bit of information for all sorts of reasons, obviously, and I can’t find anything similar anywhere else (although perhaps I am not using the right search terms.

    May profuse thanks in advance.

  34. Thanks Wes, The Sheep, Spearmint for your answers – interesting and informative.

    So, it does mean that we are somewhat reliant on “the law of averages” for any one poll to be closer than the potential extremes of MOE?

  35. Mr Nameless

    I find this concept of ‘being in charge’ or ‘running the country’ very strange although often quoted.

    In PR countries, the post-election scenario is that the government is ‘demissionair’ in other words may not initiate new legislation. Otherwise ministers can sign stuff they are entitled to sign and so on. Actually the USA operates this way too, for instance. So did the Labour government here until the coalition took office.

    It’s this idea of ‘ooh, who’s in charge’, betraying an extraordinary attitude to what politics is about, which I would like to see superseded by a less subservient stance.

  36. Tony Dean
    I am shocked at your last post. You were an LD once I assumed?

    :-)

  37. Nameless

    The red/greens remain in govt until October 14 when they will present a budget and resign afterwards as is traditional

  38. Sorry penultimate (can’t keep up).

  39. Voters find energy prices are a major threat to the economy and that energy companies maximise profits at the expense of customers. http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/09/25/energy-prices-economic-threat/

  40. Tony

    Well the Norwegians are used to it, they would probably find our ways strange(I know I do) also with 5% of the population a member of a political party I’m sure that the politically inclined will be voicing their opinions on party forums so in a sense the public is still involved, of course the results of the negotiations can have an immediate effect on VI if a party gives too much up, one of the issues coming up now is agriculture and I presume that’s subsides, I’m guessing that the two centre right parties are worried about losing votes to the centre left party which is a great champion of farmers

  41. Tony

    On the subject of too many parties, well it’s the voters that have decided that there are 4 parties on the right, if they all voted for the same right wing party then we would only have one right wing party

  42. Alex Harvey
    Do you mean back to the thread or back to the Tory party? Thanks for the welcome, anyhow, it’s certainly warmer than some of the posts you recieve (or rather don’t recieve) as a BNP poster. I am doing fine, thanks… life’s a bit business-pressurised but otherwise okay. BNP conferences have always been a negative part of party membership for me but the preparations for this years were particularly bad (not organisational – they are relatively organised).

    Reg, back to the thread, I’m Labour.

    What about the BNP conference upset you, though?

  43. TONY DEAN

    @” I am always amazed how voters in these multi-party list PR systems don’t feel totally excluded from the political process while all this bartering goes on.”

    Me too.

    It seems that the “manifesto” for government is constructed after the election.

    Presumably you vote on the basis of broad political preferences, without knowing what specific policies you are voting for.

  44. Richard in Norway

    It’s changing the subject a bit but I would be interested to know how many parties there are in Sweden and where they take their politocal spectrum. I have always thought of Sweden as a very liberal country, am I correct?

  45. @Tony Dean
    ‘At least with our FPTP “hire & fire” system, most of the voters “feel” as if they have “had a say” in who is the government. This may be and in fact is an illusion.’

    You must live in a marginal then. No chance my seat will ever change hands.

  46. Alex Harvey

    I realise your labour, I was faking innocence. As for the BNP conference, I felt, more than ever, a fascist and rascist atmosphere. It has always been uncomfortable but this year there was a lot of ill-concealed nazi-worship and I wont stick that. I am a patriot more than I am any party member.

  47. Blimey Reg, you have just found that out?

  48. @Tony Dean
    “I am always amazed how voters in these multi-party list PR systems don’t feel totally excluded from the political process while all this bartering goes on.”

    I think they probably do.

    The way around that would be to adopt something similar to the Italian system, where the winning coalition of parties gets a bonus top up of seats in an otherwise fully proportional system. That means that all the bartering to form coalitions takes place before the election, since broad coalitions are needed to get the top up seats.

    The democratic gain from the voting public choosing the governing coalition does IMO greatly outweigh the slight loss of proportionality when the bonus seats are added in. At the margin, you can take issue with the detail – i.e. the scale of the bonus seats awarded under the Italian system and whether it should always be enough to guarantee the largest coalition a working majority. The number of bonus seats could be smaller and fixed, so long as it were large enough to act as a strong incentive to coalitions.

  49. Reg

    I always thought they were a nazi party why did you join?

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