This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Full tabs are here. With YouGov’s polls having narrowed a bit of late, it’s actually the biggest Labour lead they’ve shown since the end of August. Normal caveats apply – it could be the positive publicity and policy announcements of Labour’s conference, or could just be perfectly normal variation within the margin of error.

Meanwhile the Monday version of Populus’s twice-weekly poll showed results of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 9%. Positive for the Lib Dems following their conference, but otherwise pretty typical of Populus’s recent polls. Full tabs here.

Finally there was a new TNS BMRB poll yesterday, their once weekly voting intention polls having become rather sporadic (the previous published one I can find was back in June). Topline figures are CON 29%(+1), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 14%(+1) – changes are apparently from a poll a fortnight ago that I don’t believe was released at the time. Full tabs are here.

Note that in this case the ten point lead is certainly NOT a reflection of Labour’s recent policy announcements – fieldwork for the poll was conducted from the 12th-16th September, so was actually mostly done before the Lib Dem conference, let alone the Labour one.


542 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and TNS figures”

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  1. First!

    Odd to see a non-conference good result for Labour.

    Seem to remember Ed got a boost post-conference 2012, so will look out for that!

  2. Labour hit 70+ over the next few days, I can feel it.

  3. Not a bad set of polls for Labour, especially when the fieldwork for two of them was conducted prior to Conference and would therefore exclude any conference boost.

    What happened to those good old days when the Labour leadership used to dread Conference and its likely negative effect on their standing in the polls. Now they expect a boost whereas in those fire and brimstone days it was all about damage limitation.

    I used to rather enjoy those days though. More Party Rally now rather than actual conference. More’s the pity if you like political drama and the energy of ideas but, from a party Manager’s point of view, much safer ground now, I suppose.

    Bevan, Gaitskell, Foot, Benn, Healey, Kinnock; where art thou now!

  4. Just reading about Newham Council and the 1800 pound
    designer light fittings on the BBC.

  5. “@ Alex Harvey

    Labour hit 70+ over the next few days, I can feel it.”

    I don’t think Labour going around hitting pensioners would be a good idea !

  6. OLD NAT
    On devolution: apart from what the UK Executive can and can’t do in Scotland, is this also a matter of administrative or technical discretion related to regional powers and policies, as subsidiarity might be under EU legisaltion and powers?
    For example, as a matter of some interest to me, could the Scottish Administrration undertake cultural exchange, or educational exchange programs, or agree with DFID to provide its own overseas aid in the form of a technical assistance programme based on expertise specific to its competences and interests?

  7. I’m not taking the polls serious until after the conference, i’m sure if it wasn’t conference season the yougov polls wouldn’t be all over the place.

    Maybe the LD conference boost went to the Tories because people though NC was a Tory. haha. Seriously I bet a lot of people think NC is a Tory.

  8. Forgot to add “Bloomgate” doesn’t seem to have harmed UKIP. Where are the Euro 2014 polls?

  9. Labour bouncing up again nicely… just in time for me to lose my bet with Reg. Sigh.

  10. HS2 on hold
    200,000 new houses a year
    Free child care for working parents up to 25 hours.
    Business rates reduced for small businesses
    More New Towns and Council urban expansion restrictions eased
    Bedroom tax (or whatever) repealed

    Steady on.

  11. Yes, John, it’s been a good Conference so far. Everybody down here enthusiastic….but wait for the debate on Royal Mail privatisation….

  12. “Britain could be braced for a housebuilding boom after fresh figures revealed a sharp pick-up in planning applications, as government schemes to boost mortgage approvals raised confidence in the housing market.
    The Home Builders’ Federation said the number of planning approvals for new homes surged 49 per cent between April and June compared with the same period last year. In the first six months of the year, 77,686 permissions were granted, a 26 per cent year-on-year increase.
    The strong rise suggests that moves to relax planning laws and encourage councils to release undeveloped land are having an effect. It also indicates that housebuilders have an increased appetite for development amid the tentative economic recovery.
    The industry has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of successive government schemes to boost the economy, from Funding for Lending to Help to Buy, which uses taxpayers’ money to subsidise mortgages. More than 12,500 homes were sold under Help to Buy in the five months since the scheme was introduced in April.”

    FT

  13. @Norbold
    “wait for the debate on Royal Mail privatisation….”

    I was at a fringe event last night on the NHS but in an adjoining room there was a debate on Royal Mail.

    Obviously I have no idea what the speakers were saying but the applause emanating from their room was sufficient to drown out the speakers in the room I was in.

    Privatisation of the Royal Mail will be a vote loser for the govt IMO. Rather like the NHS, we tend to view the RM as ‘ours’ & not to be tampered with, far less to be subject to shareholders & any diminishing service.

    Let’s also not forget that the delivery service guarantee contract is due for renewal in 2015. If the govt succeed in selling RM off before then, the govt will not be blamed for changes in the delivery guarantee – how very convenient !

  14. @Colin The phrase ‘braced for a new housing boom’ does not make it sound as though this would be a totally good thing. Do you think it is?

    I can see that some of the things that go with it – more house building, ‘more feel good’ and so on are good things. However, I thought that the general consensus was that what we needed were steady house prices and more houses.

  15. Question.

    If Labour announced to the markets that they would renationalise Royal Mail after May 2015 and that investors would only receive back the price they paid for their shares, would this be legal ? ( I mean the actual buying back shares at original value being legal and not the announcement)

    I seem to remember that a privitisation was scuppered before, when Labour made a similar announcement.

  16. CHARLES

    Read it again.

    The report refers to a “Housebuilding” boom.

    I believe Mr Miliband is going to say this would be a good thing , later today.

  17. I was at the Royal Mail fringe meeting. If only I’d known you were next door, Chordata…

    The big divide between the CWU, unite and all the delegates there last night and the Labour leadership is the question of committing to renationalise if the privatisation goes ahead.

  18. If Labour do exactly what they say they’re going to do with HS2, it shouldn’t make much difference. The capacity crunch on commuter services into Euston is already biting, growth in rail travel between West Midlands in London is vastly outpacing the national average, and unless there is an unexpected change in patterns in the next two years, by 2015 the problems will getting more obvious. I can categorically tell you that the magic upgrade that antis promise solves everything doesn’t work at all, and may even even up making commuter services worse. There are plausible alternatives that might work, but none of those are much cheaper than phase 1. There’s a case for holding off on phase 2 until we have a better idea of public finances and future passenger numbers, but you probably don’t need to make a final decision in the next Parliament anyway.

    What worries me is that most anti groups, and some figures in Labour, don’t give a damn about rail capacity. Most anti groups routinely selectively quote crowding figures, a common trick being to quote crowding on Virgin Trains (which aren’t too bad at the moment), and deliberately ignore the crowding on commuter services. Their proposed solution delivers a marginal benefit to long-distance services but nothing at all for commuters services, but they still try to pass it off as a solution for commuters. Most worryingly, Alastair Darling refusing to comment on how he proposes to deal with crowding on London Midland services if not through HS2 (which would divert some long distance services away from the WCML and allow much more commuter services to run).

    Then there’s the rubbish routinely spouted that rail travel is for fat cats anyway. Anyone who commutes by rail, or anyone who has ever travelled on any high speed train, knows perfectly well there’s not a shred of truth in that claim, but someone thinks Labour might fancy using that as a bit of call war. As someone who commutes by rail myself and earns considerably below the average wage, I really hope that Labour doesn’t resort to clumping in the people they are supposed to help with the rich.

    I really hope Mandelson, Darling and co aren’t preparing to fob off the country by either 1) declaring a capacity crunched solved without doing anything to solve it, or 2) declaring a problem solved by pretending it doesn’t exist.

  19. @ R Buckle

    It would be legal, though could be challenged at court and the markets would likely retaliate right after the elections.

    With steady nerves it could be done by Labour. Does it need it? Are there more worthy causes to upset the markets?

  20. Maria Eagle committed Labour to Hs2 this morning but not to allow costs to get out of hand. Excellent speech by Maria by the way – got a (mostly) standing ovation. The only one apart from Ed Balls.

  21. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”And that was only on the sold off school playing fields for which Mr Gove reversed the advice the local advisory boards.”

    Could you provide a reference for that please?

  22. “A Rebuilding Britain Commission, chaired by Sir Michael Lyons, will locate sites for the new towns and garden cities.”

    Mirror.

    There will be fun and games if this ever comes to pass.

  23. @Colin Thanks. You are right. I hadn’t read it carefully enough! Do you think that we can have a house building boom without a housing boom?

  24. “Mr Salmond said: “An independent Scotland I lead – because it will be a decision of the Scottish people – will bring the Royal Mail and the postal service back into public ownership.”

    The Scotsman.

    ???????

  25. CHARLES

    I hope we don’t have any booms at all.

  26. As a layman, when it comes to understanding polls and their complexities, it seems to me that Labour’s fairly consistent lead in the polls for about two yeas is well entrenched. The implication is that the Tories and presumably Lib Dems too will need to come up with something significant, even radical, to achieve the necessary support to form a government in 2015.

    They only have about 19 months to do that. It is possible that the ‘three wasted years’ as Balls characterised the time since the election means the coalition may have left things too late to make achieve the necesary push over the line.

  27. Colin,

    An independent Scottish government could buy up all the Royal Mail shares and use the existing national network for SNP interests.

  28. (More probably, ‘Ec means “nationalise the Scottish postal system”, presumably using the money saved from cutting corporation tax, increasing pensions, curing cancer and abolishing Monday.)

  29. JOHN PILGRIM

    Anything not specifically reserved to Westminster in Schedule 5 of the Act (as amended) is a competence of the Scottish Parliament.

    For a number of years there has been a technical assistance programme for Malawi provided by the Scottish Parliament. I don’t think it was “agreed” with DfID, though obviously, they were told of it.

    In 2011, the Scottish and Chinese Governments signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the promotion of cultural collaboration and exchange.

  30. Bill

    An independent Scotland will abolish mondays? Wow sign me up

  31. This is really funny.

    Iain Dale rolling around the floor with nuclear protestor in Brighton.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1145764/iain-dale-scraps-with-protester-at-conference

  32. RiN

    Since Monday is the only weekday not named after a Norse god, it should obviously be abolished.

  33. R HUCKLE

    I wouldn’t describe it as funny. Attacking anyone who misuses an apostrophe is a civic duty.

  34. @ Bill Patrick

    Alex Salmond does seem to believe less is more, regarding corporation tax – although it’s not been repeated recently, so I’m not sure whether it’s still Yes, Scotland ‘policy’ or not.

    I hadn’t heard about the plan to increase pensions; I did hear that the Yes team are proposing smoothing the transition for women regarding raising the age at which they become eligible.

    Regarding curing cancer, maybe it will be a Scottish institution funded by the government which finds a cure for some cancers. Scotland has a good record on advancing medical technologies & methods.

    I doubt that Monday will be abolished by either side but it’s a good suggestion. :-)

  35. @RHuckle

    “A video of the Iain Dale incident.”

    That’s completely hilarious! An interesting character is our Mr Dale; a publisher, broadcaster and former Conservative Party politician. In September 2003 he became the first openly gay Conservative candidate to contest a Parliamentary election. He’s also a compulsive right wing blogger in the Guido Fawkes mould. I wonder why he’s so interested in publishing MacBride’s memoirs and getting them serialised during the Labour Conference, you may ask?

    I’m a naive soul at heart, really.

  36. colin

    “I hope we don’t have any booms at all.”

    We liked Basil Brush.

  37. OLDNAT

    “I wouldn’t describe it as funny. Attacking anyone who misuses an apostrophe is a civic duty.”

    You pedent’s seem to take pleasure in, boldly making people feel bad, for, misusing spelling, and, grammer.

    its not very nice,

  38. “…I was determined this idiot shouldn’t disrupt what was an important interview for my author”

    lol

  39. BILL

    Ah-the dastardly SNP plan to invade England.

  40. Well the only political news today seems to be Iain Dale assaulting an OAP. The only stories people are reading are Kenya.

    Not sure if that is good news or bad news for Labour. It seems clear they can’t really use the press to get the message about their new policies across.

    There was a good article in the telegraph talking about the difference between public opinion vs reality.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100237486/labour-has-a-new-problem-with-spin-the-tories-are-better-at-it/

    “Ed Miliband and his party seem incapable of getting their message across to the voters”

    Not sure what they can do to improve communication. People don’t seem to read political stories, the political commentators are only looking for gossip it seems, presumably because that is all readers are interested in reading or watching.

    Old fashioned doorstep campaigning? Surely there must be a more efficient and effective way in 2013?

  41. @ Chris Neville-Smith,

    All Labour’s north-of-London MPs- who, since this is Labour, are most Labour MPs- need to use the trains twice a week to commute back and forth to Westminster. So I wouldn’t worry too much. Crass self-interest should drive them to do something about capacity eventually!

    (Prices, on the other hand, since they can claim their tickets on expenses…)

  42. Oh we’ll, now sitting in an absolutely packed Brighton Conference Centre waiting for our leader…

  43. Surely, building more houses would reduce the likelihood of a boom?

    The reason prices and rents are booming in London is because of scarcity. I thought that the evident reluctance of the banks and construction companies to offer loans/mortgages/use their reserved sites, was essentially to ensure high profitability.

    Isn’t it true that politically, there is a problem in building more houses because of the likely drop in prices? It is one of the distortions created by replacing the use-value of housing with one of speculative-value.

  44. @ToH

    “I know private health care is expensive, I use it all the time but i get what i pay for…”

    ——–

    Of course, if you can afford it… and you seem routinely untroubled by many of the issues others experience with the private sector. But the point of Charles’ YouTube clip – which is well worth watching – is that in the US, despite paying a lot more, they don’t seem to get much extra for it overall.

  45. @ Richard,

    Not sure what they can do to improve communication.

    Get better spin doctors.

    The only way Labour gets a fair(er) hearing in the media is to have the media living in terror that if they misreport something, or in the BBC’s case fail to put a Labour spokesperson on opposite the inevitable Tory, they will have Mandelson or Campbell screaming at them and possibly threatening legal action five seconds later.

    Labour have to be both more aggressive and more interesting than the Tories or they get the drubbing they had this summer. Miliband and Balls were there in the 90s when the Labour spin machine actually functioned, so it’s a complete mystery to me why they seem unable to grasp this now. It’s possible Miliband just doesn’t care- obsessing about day-to-day media cycles isn’t really his style- but you’d think Balls would, and you’d think with his leadership ratings still in the Mariana Trench Miliband would have noticed he has a problem by now.

  46. “But the terrier – carrying placards reading “No Nukes” on its back – failed to live up to the loyalty expected from dogs, jumping up and biting its owner on the rear.”

    Waiting for the headline – “Dog bites protester – Is inoculated against tetanus”

  47. Surely the protester would be perfectly justified in reporting Iain Dale to the police with a view to prosecution on grounds of assault? I certainly would not hesitate. At the end of the day, Dale did not ‘own’ that piece of pavement any more than any other member of the public – the video evidence is obviously readily available to his victim.
    I take the same view of BBC/ITN/SKY interviews held on College Green or anywhere else – people are under no obligation to stay out of the way for the convenience of the broadcasters.It’s a basic issue of civil liberties – if they wish to conduct an interview take the people concerned to a studio or hired room.
    In this instance , I would wish to take Dale to court just for the joy of giving him a criminal record.

  48. @ALEX HARVEY

    “You pedent’s seem to take pleasure in, boldly making people feel bad, for, misusing spelling, and, grammer.
    its not very nice,”

    ———

    It gives bored retirees something to do though, especially given the prevalence of smartphones and tablets with autocorrect which creates ample opportunity to fill their time with something suitably anodyne…

  49. Since we’re banning Mondays, can we go further?

    Tuesdays are those days which don’t really inspire.

    Wednesday are half-day closing.

    Thursdays are not bad. The week in nearly over, and there’s evening shopping.

    Fridays and Saturdays are great.

    Sundays are boring.

    I propose a three-day week. Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Obviously Thursday will become ‘hangover day’, so that leaves two days of productivity…perhaps.

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