This morning’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Full tabs are here. With YouGov’s polls having narrowed a bit of late, it’s actually the biggest Labour lead they’ve shown since the end of August. Normal caveats apply – it could be the positive publicity and policy announcements of Labour’s conference, or could just be perfectly normal variation within the margin of error.

Meanwhile the Monday version of Populus’s twice-weekly poll showed results of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 9%. Positive for the Lib Dems following their conference, but otherwise pretty typical of Populus’s recent polls. Full tabs here.

Finally there was a new TNS BMRB poll yesterday, their once weekly voting intention polls having become rather sporadic (the previous published one I can find was back in June). Topline figures are CON 29%(+1), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 9%(-2), UKIP 14%(+1) – changes are apparently from a poll a fortnight ago that I don’t believe was released at the time. Full tabs are here.

Note that in this case the ten point lead is certainly NOT a reflection of Labour’s recent policy announcements – fieldwork for the poll was conducted from the 12th-16th September, so was actually mostly done before the Lib Dem conference, let alone the Labour one.


542 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and TNS figures”

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  1. Sorry, that should have ended as “strong incentive to pre-election coalitions”.

  2. [Snip]

    So this is interesting I think :-

    “The CBI’s monthly Distributive Trades Survey, which monitors more than 100 businesses, said that 100pc of the surveyed furniture and carpet retailers reported a rise in sales over the last month, the strongest result since August 1996.
    For the total retail market, the CBI said that sales rose at the quickest pace since June 2012. It reported that 46pc of respondents reported a rise in sales, while 12pc reported a fall, leaving a balance of +34pc.”

    DT

  3. Howard

    I always realised that a large amount of the party were but this year was the first time I thought that a large majority are.

    RogerRebel

    I joined because at the time immigration was a real problem in my mind, along with me being ‘grumpy’ at the fact my son had joined the army and was serving in Afghanistan, which I believed was none of our business. There were a lot who joined alongside me and have steadily dropped off.

  4. Reg

    Sweden has a very similar political setup to Norway, the parties are mostly the same except they have a strong green party rather than many parties claiming to be green. But recently they have been getting more illiberal as evidenced by the bmp style party gain seats in parliament at the last election

  5. BNP are fascist and racist shock!

    Ever wondered why nobody greeted you with love when you wore their trappings?

  6. Laszlo,

    “Funnily in market economies the most extensive price controls were introduced by Nixon on the proposal of his advisor, someone called M. Freedman. It was a disaster and Friedman was fired (but got a job from Pinochet later and from Reagan, but he was fired again).”

    Every single clause of that paragraph is false, except the fact that price controls under Nixon were disastrous.

  7. I think a common attitude amongst Norwegians is that “I’ve done my bit, now it’s time for the politicians to make it work” I was struck how voting is talked about as a civic duty rather than a civic right, the tv presenters were asking folk “have you done your civic duty?” And of course “would you mind telling us who you voted for” but that idea that it’s the citizen’s duty to vote but it’s the politicians duty to make sense of the will of the people is prevalent I think

  8. RiN

    Thanks, that, interesting. So my image of all Swedes wearing yellow and waving birds around the place doesn’t really fit.

    NickP

    I think this is the only time I am ever going to agree with you on this forum. Now that I, and the other non-rascist and non-fascists, have left, all that seems to remain of the party are nazis. I am usually loyal to a party once I join, but BNP have shot themselves in the foot.

  9. @Colin

    The issue for me is more whether the trends in GDP averages hide a recovery that is being enjoyed by a few at the more prosperous end of the scale while living standards for most continue to fall or stagnate in real terms.

    The sort of micro-indicator that will give a better indication are sales at the likes of Poundland, Lidl and Aldi, which have been booming during the recession, as has the growth in volumes at the likes of Wonga. When those trends go into reverse, we’ll know that the benefits of recovery are being better shared around.

  10. Poundland, Lidl and Aldi obviously need a price freeze.

    (Although is it possible to freeze the prices in a shop where everything is supposed to be one pound?)

  11. Time for a bit of a laugh. Anyone seen this?

    http: // order-order.com/2013/09/25/boris-deputy-mayor-dick-barnes-uploads-dick-pics-to-facebook/

    The headlines you could write on the back of that. Soglad it wasn’t someone from Labour or it wouyld be front page all over the Murdoch press.

  12. Back to the seriousness…prediction for tomorrow

    Lab – 40
    Con 31
    Ukip – 12

  13. REG

    You can see what I mean?

    You have real concerns and people dismiss you. You get me?

  14. Could I suggest that people cut Reg a bit of slack. He’s left the BNP, not joined it.

  15. Lib Dem 11

    They seem to have fallen off the original post (is that a sign?)

  16. My prediction:

    Con 33.4%
    Lab 37.9%
    LD 9.9%

  17. I think labour will hit 42% – lead of 10 tomorrow

  18. Alex Harvey

    I totally understand and sympathise.

    Phil Haines

    Thanks. You might have wondered and I am glad you clarified it.

    All

    I’m driving my wife into the village for some milk?! Why you need milk at fives past ten on a wednesday night I don’t know but orders are orders. The point is that I won’t be back tonight so sweet dreams.

  19. Has a snap election just happened? My lights have gone out.

  20. My prediction.

    Labour 36%

    Tory 34%

    UKIP 15%

    Green 6%

    Others 9%

  21. @ Tony Dean,

    So, it does mean that we are somewhat reliant on “the law of averages” for any one poll to be closer than the potential extremes of MOE?

    Yeah, although it’s worth remembering that the varying poll results on election day aren’t all down to MoE: some of it is bad polling technique.

    The perfect pollster would give the true average VI for each party, and individual polls would deviate from those numbers only because of MoE. (The perfect pollster would also have a sample size large enough to keep MoE down to a reasonable level.) They’d have perfect accuracy but imperfect precision, because every measurement has some inherent imprecision.

    But pollsters can be inaccurate too. The case of the Ukip weighing is a clear example of this: Populus and ComRes can’t both be right. Someone has made the wrong call, and when the European and general elections roll around, we’ll find out who.

  22. I think Reg should be applauded for two reasons. First, though he was widely ignored, he did make very reasonable and intelligent posts when he was flying the BNP flag, and secondly he has been admirably open about his views and reasons for leaving the party.

    On the polling error discussion: I totally agree that it is trends across a range of pollsters that gives the best picture. However on an individual poll, I think that if the MoE on an individual party is 3%, the MoE on the lead might well be equally likely to be 6%. This is for the following reason: All reputable pollsters obviously try to be as unbiased as possible. However, there could be accidental subtle reasons in the wording or order of questions or the weighting process that might mean that a particular pollster tends to give a bias of (say) 3% to the conservatives at the expense of Labour. If this was the case, a 6% error in the lead would be expected.

  23. “BNP have shot themselves in the foot.”

    Shame it wasn’t their head.

  24. @allan – if that were the result we would have heard by now

  25. Last post is in moderation probably because I mentioned a particular party, but Spearmint has mad essentially the same point.

  26. reg

    “I’m driving my wife into the village for some milk?! Why you need milk at fives past ten on a wednesday night I don’t know but orders are orders. The point is that I won’t be back tonight.”

    Blimey Reg!! How far is your village?

  27. @ Reg,

    Thanks to the rise of Ukip the BNP are probably experiencing a version of the Militant Tendency/Republican extremist death spiral. Moderates have begun defecting (to Ukip, or in your case to the Tories), so the people who remain are the more extreme members, who then dominate the party, which drives out even more moderates, until the party is boiled down into an extremist concentrate. In the case of the BNP the extremist fringe were always neonazis, so that’s what’s left.

    @ Allan,

    My lights have gone out

    That’s Tory rule for you.

  28. @MSmithsonPB: YouGov poll for Sun sees LAB take 9% lead
    CON 32%
    LAB 41%
    LD 8%
    UKIP 11%

  29. @Spearmint

    I’ll be very surprised if UKIP doesn’t eventually poll between 5% and 10% at the next election (probably closer to 5%) and have a small investment riding on that outcome.

    But if so, that won’t vindicate the current polling of Populus, whose weighting of UKIP identifiers is just silly. It’s just that we are measuring VI now, not in 2015, and by 2015 VI will have shifted.

  30. UK – YouGov/Sun poll: CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11% https://twitter.com/Sun_Politics/status/382980425364164608

  31. CHRIS
    I think labour will hit 42% – lead of 10 tomorrow
    September 25th, 2013 at 10:03 pm

    Wowsers close enough – suppose within moe. Do feel this will fall back by the weekend mind – scaremongering today will start to have some impact

  32. @Reginald –

    “I am usually loyal to a party once I join”

    Usually? How many have you joined?

  33. ac

    “My prediction.

    Labour 36%

    Tory 34%”

    Oh dear.

  34. Looks like Lab’s conference bounce has finally appeared.

  35. Arsenal second team through 4-3 on pens – from 1-3 down.

    Wuff, wuff !!!

  36. @ Chris,

    Do feel this will fall back by the weekend mind – scaremongering today will start to have some impact

    I was wondering about that too. I noticed the Sun went ballistic about the energy cap today.

    Will people believe it, though, or are they too cynical to listen at this point? The Tories/the energy companies may be underestimating how pissed off people are about the price hikes. On the other hand, the messages about Labour’s economic incompetence get good traction even though people hate the bankers. People may end up thinking “This is a great policy… and it proves Labour is economically incompetent” without noticing the internal contradiction.

  37. Spearmint – not really “finally”. Conference bounces are odd things, as I’ve said in the new post, some years there really is an up and down after each conference (look at 2009, for example, up, down, up, down, up down), some years they don’t.

    If there is an effect though, it seems to be straight after the leaders’ speeches – which makes sense, it’s the day that gets most coverage, normally gets the headlines and frontpages, and normally has any big announcements. In that sense, the boost is bang on time!

  38. After Ed’s speech (notice how I am apparently cosying up?) I predicted 42 by Friday, so well on course, unless the above posts are spoofs.

    Protecting bankers’ bonuses is sure however to be a counter measure that should restore the balance (not!).

    Rest assured however, that DC has a cunning plan for next week.

    If I knew what it was, it would not be sufficiently cunning, would it?

  39. New thread

  40. Close yet again – I predicted 40/31 when it was 41/32….got the 9% lead right .

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