The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and the Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 28%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 17%(-2). The fieldwork was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so at just the same time as the YouGov polls showing the Labour lead almost vanishing, but doesn’t show any significant narrowing. Populus’s poll yesterday also showed things rumbling along as usual.

In the weekend papers we should also have the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times.

UPDATE: The Opinium poll in the Observer is out, and has topline figures of CON 29%(-1), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 17%(nc). No narrowing (or Lib Dem conference boost) there.


108 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 28, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 17”

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  1. Awaiting the report of The Times Yougov with *ahem* great interest…..what no reporting of it on Sun Politics twitter account ;-)

  2. Here we go again: some interesting poll movement detected by one pollster, perhaps hinted at elsewhere, and not a trace of it anywhere else. YouGov long seem to have underestimated UKIP’s VI but there are few opportunities to pin down by how much. Perhaps next year’s Euro elections will give us something to chew on. It’s not that long to wait.

    Anyone else here watching the German elections?

  3. I’d reckon UKIP at the euros in 2014 may be the ultimate example of how performance in one sort of election isn’t a useful guide to another election. IMO they stand a decent chance of taking 1st place at the Euros, GE….at best they’re competing for 3rd.

  4. I’m inclined to agree with other posters. Labour’s polling seems reasonably consistent across different polling firms. They’re scoring in the high 30s and Ed M is unpopular. I think that’s pretty much a given. Lib Dems look also to be somewhere between 7 and 10 per cent and opinions on them currently seem pretty set.

    It’s the scores for Tory and UKIP VI that we can’t rely on at the moment. What’s going on? Very interesting.

  5. “It’s the scores for Tory and UKIP VI that we can’t rely on at the moment. What’s going on? Very interesting.”

    Probably because a lot of people can’t make up their mind whether to vote Tory or UKIP. They’d prefer UKIP but don’t want to let Labour into power, for instance.

  6. CHRIS RILEY

    “It’s the scores for Tory and UKIP VI that we can’t rely on at the moment. What’s going on? ”

    Could it be that polling methodologies are simply inadequate to measure the introduction of new parties into the system?

    All polling is based on assumptions that their model accurately reflects the base population.

    If the population deviates too much from the model, then the models fail.

  7. This question is always interesting on the comres poll:

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_September_2013.pdf

    Q.5 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as…?

    For those intending to vote UKIP the answer is:
    15% Labour
    30% Conservative
    4% Lib Dem
    32% UKIP
    18% Don’t know/other

    So the majority of the people who intend voting UKIP actually see themselves as belonging to another party. So why are they voting UKIP?

    I can only guess
    – tactically – in a strong labour seat, Torys vote UKIP and vice versa? – I suspect this is the majority
    – protest – the “I think the conservatives have gone too liberal, spending too much, so I am going to vote UKIP until they change back again” crowd?

    But that may also explain why polling companies are finding it so hard to get UKIP right.

    I’m looking forward to next week to see what impact bloomgate has had on the UKIP vote. If people don’t really relate to the party, their vote seems very soft and is likely to easily collapse with something like this. But where will it go?

  8. The difference is how the various pollsters weight Con vs UKIP is a very longrunning story now. AW has explained it quite a few times. It all comes down to whether you believe that a large chunk of wavering votes tend to “go home” at election time (which has often been the case in the past) or whether you believe there is something “special” about the rise of UKIP which has broken (or at least cracked) the mould and means that past vote weighting is inappropriate (because there were hardly any past-UKIP voters to weight to).

    Labour supporters are taking a lot of consolation from the fact these polls don’t seem to reflect the fairly sudden almost-disappearance of the Labour lead that YouGov have shown this week. That’s fair enough. I think we’re all expecting a YG with a 6 or 7% lead to show up again soon.

    But we have to be a little bit careful about the monthly pollsters. There’s nothing wrong with their methods, but the relative infrequency of their polls makes it harder to spot trends. The poll that today Opinium is being compared to itself represented quite a drastic narrowing on the leads of a few months ago (which were often 10-11%). And Comres has been jumping around this year like a frog on a skillet.

    YouGov sometimes seems to favour Labour, sometimes the Tories. It’s popularity with either side of course varies with the fluctuation in that favour. But it is still the only pollster sampling often enough to give us anything like a real time sense of movement.

    How often do we say “of course we’ll have to wait for a few more polls before we can really tell what’s happening”? Well with Opinium and ComRes waiting for a few more polls takes you months…

  9. In other news, slightly unfair reporting by the BBC of the Labour Party conference.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24189094

  10. The sooner the bbc is shut down the better.

  11. Neil A
    Isn’t that a positive story for Ed?
    Anyway.. I think we all are in the dark about the positions of CON and UKIP atm. Some pollsters have got it right, some wrong. We just don’t know which is which. IMO

  12. Neil A

    Opinium does actually report every 2 weeks and Populus every 3 or 4 days!

  13. @Graham.

    Yup Populous have recently increased their frequency, although only to less than half as frequent as YouGov.

    But Opinium and Comres are still too infrequent to give as good a sense as YouGov. Two weeks is a very long time. It is very hard to tell if something was an outlier or not, when you have to wait another 2-4 weeks to compare it to further polls. By that time you don’t know if you’re seeing the unwinding of an outlier, or a change in public opinion.

  14. Fraser Nelson once again does a brilliant article exposing the difference between public perception and reality:

    “Polls show that between 6 per cent and 12 per cent of us realise that he is pushing up the national debt. ”

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/george-osborne-is-the-king-of-black-holes-so-why-does-he-attack-labour/

    It is really odd. Labour and the left wing papers seem reluctant to point this out, presumably because then there will be a call for more supposed austerity, and the right wing press seem to be happy to go along without correcting the public perception of just how bad our finances are.

    But at the end of the day it damages both parties and the country, because we are not having the national debate about the bold steps required to fix it, so it will just continue to grow until we have a major economic collapse. At that point there will be no opportunity for debate, the IMF will impose a solution for us and we will all lose.

  15. New Yougov:

    37/33/11/11

    Labour 37 obviously.

  16. @Oldnat

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24187127

    “Independence could mean people in Scotland get state pensions earlier than the rest of the UK, Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested.”

    Now that will really stir the pot. I know of two women who have paid the ‘full stamp’ all their lives and are facing an extra six years of working. One (I forget the details of the other) would have retired in five years, but instead it will be eleven.

    Not seen her to ask her, but will be interested what she thinks of that.

  17. @RR

    Is that a prediction or what?

  18. My prediction for tomorrow’s German election:

    CDU/CSU: 38.5%
    SPD: 26.5%
    Green: 9.0%
    Left: 8.5%
    FDP: 6.0%
    AfD: 5.5%
    Pirates: 2.0%
    Others: 4.0%

  19. The names of the German parties are refreshingly straightforward. Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens and The Left.

  20. It would be nice if the main UK parties could rename themselves as simply “The Good”, “The Bad” and “The Ugly”.

    And “Dirty Harry”.

  21. Can’t see any sign of a ST tweet, or anything on YG site, so guessing Red Rag is guessing.

    Sounds a good guess to me though. Even if the recent narrowing is for real, there’s bound to be a higher lead in the mix sooner or later.

  22. @Neil A

    It was tweeted by

    TSEofPB [email protected] 32m
    YouGov Sunday Times
    Lab 37
    Con 33
    LD 11
    UKIP 11

    He is normally first with the Sunday Times Yougov and right, I guess he must subscribe to the paper or he gets an advance copy.

  23. Thanks Richard.

    Looks about right. LD still doing reasonably well. It’s been a while since they were consistently matching UKIP.

  24. Does anyone know why linke, greens and the social democrats can’t form a coalition assuming they had enough seats, is linke too left wing? Is it a personality problem?

  25. RiN,

    From what I understand, Die Linke have some elements who vehemently oppose coalitions without massive concessions. Also, as a continuation of the old SEP (the ruling party of the DDR) the SPD would be reluctant to touch them.

    There’s no reason there couldn’t be a Red-Green government.

  26. Personally, I’m more inclined to believe the YouGov/ICM Lab +4% leads with UKIP around 11%, than the Opiniom/Comres Lab +7% leads with UKIP around 17%. I just find it unlikely that a party without the income, nationwide ground organisation, or number of well known figures as the Cons/Lab/LDs can reach close to 1/5th of all voters. 1/10th would already be a massive step forwards.

  27. Re: Germany

    Is it settled that the FDP will reach the 5% threshold, or is that still in jeopardy?

  28. @RAF

    Here is the Wikipedia site with all the German polls

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2013

    This month FDP between 4 and 6%

    I’d guess with margin of error it will only be settled once the results are counted.

  29. Some good background on the German election here and why the 5% is so important

    http://www.realclearworld.com/blog/2013/08/the_second_most_important_elec_1.html

    “If the FDP fails to reach the 5 percent threshold, then Ms. Merkel could be in serious trouble.”

  30. Interesting new angle on the 21st August attack in Syria. The Russians claim that the batch number on the fragments of the rockets used in the attacks were part of connsignments shipped to Yemen, Egypt and Libya – not Syria.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/gas-missiles-were-not-sold-to-syria-8831792.html

    The fog of war persists.

  31. Re: Germany
    Five polling institutes have published their VI polls on 19-20 September. The average is as follows:
    CDU-CSU 39.5
    FDP 5.5
    Total outgoing gvt. 45
    SPD 27
    Greens 9
    Left 9
    Total opposition: 45
    AfD 4.5
    Others 5.5
    In other words, it is a total draw between the two “blocks”, it can go either way. The first place of the Chr. Dems is beyond doubt, but this is irrelevant, what counts is the total sum of each of the two “blocks”. And two additional uncertainties: As Richard has already remarked, the score of FDP is within MoE as far as the 5% threshold is concerned, and the same thing is valid for the AfD, so further complications might arise. If the AfD enters the Bundestag, no block has OM. If the FDP stays out, then the “Leftish” block has certainly OM (of course numerical majority does not automatically means a political one, it just means that the Black-Yellow block cannot govern anymore. So, wait and see… My personal prediction, for what it is worth, is the following:
    CDU-CSU 37
    FDP 6
    SPD 29
    Greens 9
    Left 8
    AdD just below 5.
    So, a SPD-Green-Left OM (at least arithmetically). But then again it might be just wishful thinking. It is, nevertheless, a fact that pollsters usually overestimate the CDU-CSU score, it has already happened in 2005 and 2009, but this year even an 1% difference between the VI polls and the real result may be crucial.

  32. Surely when push comes to shove some CDU supporters will vote tactically for the FDP to make sure they meet the threshold?

  33. @Virgilio

    I knew you couldn’t resist a European election. It is fascinating. When do the polls close, and when will the first results come in?

  34. @Drunkenscouser

    Apparently not

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-coalition-partner-fdp-stumbles-badly-in-bavaria-state-election-a-922440.html

    “As such, Merkel is in no mood to sanction any strategy that might eat into her share of the votes on Sunday. Should she find herself in coalition negotiations next week with the SPD, every additional vote for her camp translates into valuable leverage. Indeed, she is actively campaigning for CDU voters not to cast their second vote to aid the FDP. “

  35. @MRNAMELESS

    “…The names of the German parties are refreshingly straightforward. Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens and The Left…”

    Not forgetting Alternative für Deutschland, which is…an alternative for Germany. It’s a pity UK parties don’t adopt the same Ronseal attitude, because…(deep breath)

    …Labour doesn’t labour, the Conservatives don’t conserve, the Liberal Democrats are neither liberal nor democratic, the United Kingdom Independence Party does not do well outside England, the Scottish National Party doesn’t represent the Scottish nation, Plaid Cymru is not the party of Wales, the Ulster Unionists do not cover the whole of Ulster and the Democratic Unionists aren’t that democratic.

    The only Ronseal parties would be the Green Parties, Sinn Fein and the Cooperative Party.

    rgdsm

  36. @Drunkenscouser
    This will very probably occur, this is why in my personal prediction I have FDP at 6%, but the total sum of the Black-Yellow block remains the same, and if it is lower than the SPD+Green+Left, they still lose their OM. All the “big heads” of the CDU have campaigned against this “vote lending”, and this is not a good thing for the Black-Yellow coalition, because tactical voting is fruitful only when it is tacit; to speak about this openly during the campaign brings only confusion. These declarations of the Chr.Dems (Merkel included) give the impression that they have already ditched the FdP in favor of a grand coalition and this can only favor the SPD.

  37. @Virgilio

    Always a pleasure, thank you.

    rgdsm

  38. The FDP should be all right. They usually get a bit over what they appear in the opinion polls because some CDU/CSU voters decide to give them their ‘second’ vote. So if they’re near 5% in polling, that will usually lift them over it.

    The more interesting question is whether the AfD will get over the threshold (they may benefit from a similar effect to the above). Depending on the details of how the German version of AMS works (and it’s just got even more complicated)it could even force a grand coalition as presumably the CDU would be at least as unwilling to go into a coalition with AfD as the SPD are with the Left.

  39. @RAF
    You are right, I confess my addiction, in this case aggravated by the fact that a German election has a broader European (and even international) interest because of the position of Germany as the most important country of the Eurozone and the EU in general. Polls close at 18.00 German (Central European) time (which is 17.00 in UK and 19.00 in Greece) and exit polls will be published at closing time, yet if the actual result resembles the average I mentioned, we will have to wait for the final results…
    I have also gathered data on the forthcoming GE in Austria and the Czech Republic, but this can wait till tomorrow, the hot topic now is the German GE!!!

  40. @ Martyn
    You are welcome
    Tomorrow all will be clear!!!

  41. Don’t trust the label. I haven’t seen any shins being feigned.

  42. @MICHAEL ELLIOTT

    Boom-tish!

    rgdsm

  43. @ Roger

    I just looked up the AFD, and they sound like our UKIP, and the pollsters there seem to be having the same problem! They say they are going to get 7-8%, the pollsters say 3-5%. One to watch…

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/15/germany-anti-euro-party-election-outcome-open

    “Yet pollsters admit voters could be reluctant to say they will vote for the renegade party, leaving analysts unaware as to whether it will gain the 5% of votes needed to win seats in the Bundestag lower house.

    Analysts say the AfD’s chances on 22 September will be at the mercy of unpredictable protest voters. “At every election … there are protest voters who, without ideological conviction, vote for any party they feel will most clearly demonstrate their dissatisfaction with the status quo,” says Klaus-Peter Schöppner, head of opinion pollster Emnid.”

  44. @ Michael Elliott

    A smiley thing!

  45. Fascinating prog. on Angela Merkel by Marr last evening.
    I feel I understand her more as a result.

    We don’t have politicians with her approach to politics in this country. It seems a pity.

    Much praise & admiration for Andrew Marr for overcoming his stroke & making the programme.

  46. With an MOE of 3 , YouGov Labour leads looks to be in a range 0 to 6 now.

  47. colin

    Today’s polls have Lab leads of 8, 7 and 4. I think if you look at the column of figures on your left the current lead is more likely between 3 and 7.

  48. “Independence could mean people in Scotland get state pensions earlier than the rest of the UK, Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested.”

    That’s interesting, but not what a couple of SNP people on the Holyrood finance committee were saying a while back. There were various comments regarding the unsustainability of Scotland’s spending commitments post independence. Pensions were singled out as a potntial problem.

  49. Someone should tell Grayling ‘labour would clobber the rich’ would appeal to the vast majority in this country.

  50. “A survey by the consumer group Which? shows that as incomes stagnate, eight in 10 people in Britain are concerned that food is too expensive, and more than half worry about how they will pay for their groceries in the future if prices continue to climb.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/one-in-three-britons-struggling-to-feed-themselves-8831833.html

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