Following on from last night’s YouGov poll showing the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 36%, tonight’s again has them very close. The topline figures are Con 34%, Lab 35%, Lib Dems 11%, UKIP 11%. I rather expected that last night’s figures would turn out to be an outlier and we’d be back to a three or four point lead today, but it looks like something might be afoot.

It is, of course, conference season and 11% is at the top end of YouGov’s recent range for the Lib Dems. Perhaps what we’re seeing is a slight Lib Dem conference bounce at Labour’s expense (or perhaps the conference of one of the two governing parties has helped them both!). Either way, polls during conference season go and up down and it rarely pays to get too excited about them. The faltering lead is hardly a good start for Labour’s conference, but next week they’ll probably get their own boost from their own conference publicity.


370 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%”

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  1. @ Wood

    If a school wanted to make the best of it, and offer loads of extra tuition & get the clubs involved…great, but all it really NEEDS is to keep the cafeteria, library, study/computer rooms if there are any, and gates, open.
    —————-
    Steady on, we are talking about primary school age children

  2. It may have been noted earlier, but I find it very odd that a man who uses the term Bongo Bongo Land, won’t accept racism.

    Some mistake, surely?

  3. @Wood

    You must be more drunk than me, I’ll leave you to it…

  4. My! This discussion has risen to stratospheric levels of ignorance about schools, young people and laws.

    Some of you should have stayed in the pub tonight. :-)

  5. Do tell where I’ve been ignorant about Oldnat. I shall read your sober reflections in the morning.

    Nighty night…

  6. “ignorant about education”. Autocorrect < automod…

  7. CARFREW

    “Do tell where I’ve been ignorant about Oldnat.”

    I don’t recall you being ignorant about me at any time! :-)

  8. @Amber “Steady on, we are talking about primary school age children”

    Yeah, I guess this conversation is drifting towards my own ‘I could run the country better’ ideas about public schools in general, open gates etc. When it’s really more about primary schools. I’m getting carried away perhaps.

    Nevertheless, I can’t see a problem, even with primary schools, with the ‘lunch break’ thing. Maybe I’m missing something, but schools ALREADY look after kids, with all the appropriate health & safety & legal stuff, OUTSIDE of lessons. I really don’t get the problem.

  9. CARFREW

    Aw shame. I was looking forward to your not realising the error till tomorrow. :-)

    Your contributions did not suggest that you were one of those that I was referring to . Why would you think that?

  10. Yeah I’m pretty sure he means me :D

    Just to clarify, a lot of what I said wasn’t with primary schools in mind….which is fairly foolish as that’s the subject at hand. Nevertheless I still feel like I’m missing something.

  11. Sorry if anyone has already mentioned this, but I could not see it on a quick look back through the thread.

    I hate to support the UKIPper, but he seems to be old enough to remember what Wikipedia

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katharine_Whitehorn

    calls ‘a minor sensation’. In an article by Katherine Whitehorn in 1963, she identifies herself as a slut:

    “Have you ever taken anything out of the dirty-clothes basket because it had become, relatively, the cleaner thing? Changed stockings in a taxi? Could you try on clothes in any shop, any time, without worrying about your underclothes? How many things are in the wrong room—cups in the study, boots in the kitchen?”

    It seems likely that this is what he had in mind, so I do not think that the original comment deserves to be blown out of the water. I say nothing about his other words or actions.

  12. @ Billy Bob

    “I see Ted Nugent has expressed an interest in becoming GOP candidate for President in 2016… I mean we’re lucky to still have him since he promised to be either dead or in prison by now if Obama was reelected. (His comment comparing the Obama administration to “coyotes who needed to be shot”, earned him a little visit from the President’s security team.)

    I didn’t know anything about that, except I just watched Soledad O’Brien (on youtube) taking Allen West to task about his claim that 78-81 Democrats in Congress are members of the Communist Party.”

    These guys are seriously wacked out. They need to work out their issues with professional counselors, not take to politics. Nugent is classless but I’ll just note that direct threats are not protected by the First Amendment. Never have been.

    And as for Allen West. He is a war criminal who should have done prison time for what he did in Iraq. Or at least spent some time under house arrest. Instead he’ll live a free life and make loads and loads of money as an angry on air commentator. That’s fine with me as long as he’s got no more business in government. He was a disgrace to his office and the country.

    (Btw, did I tell you that I met his successor?)

    As for Virginia, the Cooch would be in line to win if historical precedents are to be the barometer. Virginia and New Jersey almost always vote against the incumbent President’s Party in the off-year elections. But then again, if historical precedents always governed elections, Bradford West would still be in Labour hands following that special election. The Cooch is turning out not to be so popular, what with his whole outlaw all divorce plans and the political corruption scandal involving him (the current Republican Governor of Virginia is probably about to be hit with federal indictments on a variety of corruption charges mostly stemming from bribery). The Cooch won’t return some illegal gifts he received. The Democratic nominee is not that popular either but he’s got one hell of a campaign manager. If anyone could get T-Mac the win, it’s him. So we’ll see what happens.

    Also, ot can I just complain about a Huffpost UK article?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/09/19/atheism-in-parliament-congress_n_3958954.html

    I know you had nothing to do with this but this article is poorly researched. It fails to mention Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) who was elected in 2012. She’s also openly bisexual and a vegan too (the vegan part being the most controversial among voters in Arizona). Feel I should correct the record for those of you here who might have read that article and not known.

  13. Re this after school child care thing.

    Couldn’t we get the children occupied cleaning behind the nations fridges?

  14. What next from the Labour party on childcare; someone to come in first thing in the morning to get the dressed and washed before school? Perhaps someone else to read to them at night? I would have loved someone to take mine out at the weekend? I still blame Mrs T for ‘making’ me have children in the 80’s. Who knew I would have to take ‘any’ responsibility for my own kids?

  15. Oh well, just off to the front line aka Labour Party Conference. See you when I get back.

    In the meantime can I leave you with this thought on the latest news which seems to be a case of Apple! and Blackberry crumble.

  16. @ Raskey

    Latch-key kids were a ‘scandal’ back in those days. And some kids had to wait in the street for their folks to get home from work because they didn’t even have a key.

    There’s scarcely a family in low paid work who wouldn’t rather look after their own kids but they must work & can’t afford a nanny, au pair or similar.

  17. John Humphries asks Nigel Farage about the likelihood of a 2015 Con/UKIP pact in marginal seats.

    When Farage says “unlikely”, Humphries says “Ah-ha…”

    “Very unlikely, extremely unlikely?”

    Farage is chuckling uncontrolably at this point “Ok, I’ll give you a ‘No’.”

    Previously in the interview Farage indicated that UKIP will identify its target seats after the 2014 locals/EU elections.

  18. I think the main problem with the UKIP farce (Thwack Gate?)was actually over the ukip brochure used to lamp Michael Crick

    UKIP have made a big issue about being a non racist political party wanting a return of Britain to the British or something like that.

    15% of British people are not white and yet their brochure made up of a montage of 250 faces contains no non white people.

    Perfectly reasonable question for Mr Crick to ask was why?

    UKIP failed to address this at all in their apology.

  19. Can’t the school introduce Saturday and Sunday school 52 weeks of the year for those who work at weekends too.

    How can you go back to family life and support marriage whilst wanting parents to both work 10 hours a day.

    I really wonder why some people want children if they only want to look after them part time. Whilst working people without children are again forced to put their hands in their pockets to fund it

    Why don’t we have policies that benefit all, like increasing the income tax threshold, benefiting all who work not just those with children.

  20. Great scrapping the bedroom tax, but saying somebody £60k on is not rich is a bit of an own goal. Labour have got to be careful not to destroy its core vote of working class people and comments like that wont help them in the polls.

    60K might not be a lot once the two foreign holds, Merc and private tuition is paid for. Politicians need to get into the real world. The Greens must be loving this.

  21. Just before I go, and in case it hasn’t been mentioned before, Farage’s action against Bloom means that just 7 of the 13 UKIP MEPs elected in 2009 stll have the party whip

  22. UKIP aren’t going to make real progress unless they sort their act out. Too many white grey hair men in the party to gain real support. Maybe UKIP will lose some support to the Greens.

  23. Definitely something wrong at the top in UKIP, but the question is do people who want out of the EU and protest voters really care?

  24. ROGER MEXICO

    @”Colin is wrong (“48% oppose it actually-and 60% of those people intend to vote Labour already”), it’s actually only 43% of them.”

    Why ? :

    (74% X 538)
    divided by:-
    (25% X 472) + ( (74% X 538) +(38% X 129) + ( 47% X 171)

    =

    61.7%

  25. @ Amber
    Were you one of them? My parents both worked in factories, though my mother didn’t return to it until my youngest brother (of 3) was at full time school. Never, ever met a “latch-key kid”, because if we could not get into the house we played out until we could. My parents wanted us, and cared for us, and didn’t automatically abrogate their responsibilities. And just in case you leap to any erroneous conclusion, my parents were members of the Labour party, and my Dad a shop steward, all their lives!

  26. ROGER

    I see………You get 43% if you take Lab VI opposers as a % of all opposers PLUS DK/WNVs.

    ………I said 60% of those opposed……….not 60% of those opposed plus don’t knows & will not votes.

  27. @HoofHearted

    Great scrapping the bedroom tax, but saying somebody £60k on is not rich is a bit of an own goal. Labour have got to be careful not to destroy its core vote of working class people and comments like that wont help them in the polls.

    60K might not be a lot once the two foreign holds, Merc and private tuition is paid for. Politicians need to get into the real world. The Greens must be loving this.

    I think focusing on whether £60K is rich or not is entirely futile.

    As long as everyone pay their taxes fairly, then I can’t see an issue. If I was living in London with three kids and a £350k mortgage, I would not be dripping in gold with that income.

    As for the Greens loving this, the politics of whether £60k is rich doesn’t really figure in my experience. I write as a Green Party activist. It isn’t something I’ve encountered.

    I wish parties focused more on a positive vision what they can offer, and not focusing in who is the enemy, as it were.

  28. UKIP is home to very old fashioned people generally with right wing views. Many of these may be people who would have been at home in the Tory party prior to 1992. I picked 1992, as this is the year that Major took over the Tory party, it became more pro-EU and modernisation of the party started.

    Many of these people who now support UKIP will be relaxed about the odd stupid comment and as long as Farage is seen to take action if needed, then I can’t see them moving away. So I predict that UKIP VI will be maintained and they will still do well in the EU elections in 2014.

    Elsewhere in the news and possibly more damaging to a a party is the continuing McBride coverage. This may stop Labour being able to gain any positive coverage of their conference. If I were in charge of Labours media strategy, I would suggest that they air all of the dirty linen now, so there is nothing left to hurt them in 2015. Perhaps they should ask Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and their advisors at the time, to take part in another documentary, where they can talk about the in-fighting that took place. Perhaps they should all apologise to the public, if any of this stopped the government being as effective as it could have been. This would give Ed Miliband and his shadow cabinet a chance to show they have moved on from the Blair/Brown era.

  29. Amber

    My mum always worked P/T jobs, weekend and evenings, she never paid a penny in childcare costs, neither did the state have to fund any extra childcare costs.

    Working families should get some help with childcare costs but the trend seems to be for the state to fund more and more of the cost, which i’m sure those without children or families that arrange their own childcare, wont be happy with.

  30. “…the trend seems to be for the state to fund more and more of the cost, which i’m sure those without children or families that arrange their own childcare, wont be happy with.”

    That is the core of the argument.

    You may be sure that those without families or childcare costs won’t be happy about it, but I think otherwise.

  31. I’m not a UKIP supporter but I’ve just seen that incident with Bloom hitting a reporter with a rolled up peice of paper.

    It reminded me very much of a John Cleese moment from faulty towers there’s something quite pleasing about an eccentric politician hitting a reporter with a rolled up paper nobody hurt but all rather funny .

  32. Turk

    Would you have said the same if it was Jim Murphy , Labours Defence Spokesman, doing the thwacking?

  33. Its really odd that almost every Labour conference is hed in the shadow of some New Labour has-been`s confessions.I think it was Darling in 2011 and now Mcbride in 2013.It does wash away some of the positive mesages from Labour.

  34. @Smukesh

    Not odd at all. If I am the pubblisher, I want for my time to be serialised by a major national newspaper for a six figure sum at a time of maximum exposure. Job well done, i’d.say.

  35. @Smukesh

    “tome”, not “time”.

  36. Lot of ‘why should I pay’ comments cropping up on this thread on various subjects.

    The reason is simple- because if you don’t then you have the chance of kids growing up with little or no education (in the case of free school meals as they then kick off and do not concentrate in class) and send that down to the next generation.

    It’s no difference to why we have drug addiction programmes because if we didn’t the social damage would be way higher.

  37. @Turk – at least it wasn’t a budget aka 2012!

  38. @ Shevii

    Are you suggesting everyone who did ‘not’ get a free meal got a bad education? I think you will find childrens chances in life are far more complicated than that. If they need free breakfast and lunch to have a chance, then perhaps a free evening meal might help them concentrate on their homework? Perhaps free transport to school in case the little darlings get tired en route? Or a restful ‘siesta’ in the afternoon like in Spain? Free stationary might take that pressure off parents too? Free uniforms for all? Free…I think you can see where this is going.

  39. Reading up on Bloom it appears from the context of his comments that he probably meant “slut” as in slatternly, rather than it’s more common usage as sexually promiscuous. However, it is also clear that he was aware of the double entendre potential of the comment.

    As for hitting Michael Crick with a UKIP brochure that was just comical. It’s actually very funny. What is not funny is the background to the incident. MC refers (correctly) to the fact that the UKIP brochure does not contain a single black face, whereupon Bloom accuses MC of being a racist for raising the issue. He then makes clear what he thinks of MC before cuffing MC with the brochure and walking off. I say “cuffing”, it’d more like tapping.

    The trouble with Bloom’s conduct is that despite wanting to speak his mind without reprisal, he does not, extend the same courtesy to MC, whom he immediately accuses of racism. In addition, no-one should use the word “slut” to describe a woman, whatever the context. And certainly not a politician. It’s just a grossly offensive word. I appreciate he meant slatternly, but should really have said that. He said slut because he knew,it, had another meaning.

    Will it make any difference to UKIP? I think it may discourage leftwing voters from approaching a party already perceived (not entirely accurately) as being right,of,the,Tories. The major damage has been to the UKIP Conference, where UKIP’s policy message has been relegated to the,background.

  40. I’ve been reading the comments about child care and I am becoming disturbed. The idea seems to be that this childcare idea is great because it allows the parents to work longer hours,. Why does this vision of the future make me think of industrial farming! A brave new world also springs to mind

  41. Chris

    Let’s wait and see how costed these proposals are before we make any judgements.
    At the moment the three headline proposals have all included the usual element of increasing spending, so far some might say, same old Labour.

    It will be interesting to see what the proposals Labour have this week for generating growth and production, to pay for there spending plans, it’s very easy to go for uncosted sound bites but not so easy to deliver.

  42. I’m very much in favour of free meals for all children, I was a recipient of free School meals in the early 80s, everyone knew who was getting the free meals because of the way the cafeteria system worked. One day a fellow pupil said to me that “you should give me your dessert because it’s my father that payed for it” I will never forget that as long as I live, the tone of her voice and her expression

  43. @RiN

    It encourages the approach that both parents of young children should work full time, and someone else should look after their kids. I’m starting to sound like a UKIP’er (lol), but surely it’s better for at least one parent to be available to take and collect their children from school at the start and end of the school day.

    A better solution would be to extend flexi-time options for parents in that, situation

  44. @HoofHearted
    Great scrapping the bedroom tax, but saying somebody £60k on is not rich is a bit of an own goal. Labour have got to be careful not to destroy its core vote of working class people and comments like that wont help them in the polls.
    60K might not be a lot once the two foreign holds, Merc and private tuition is paid for.


    I think we need a little reality check here £60 K a year or the pay for a Senior NHS Ward Sister or Met Police Sergeant in London.

    This level of income means the average House in London is some 8 times the wage (completely unaffordable). The average rent for a 3 Bedroom property takes over half of the after tax income.

    Alternatively you can live 50 miles from London and pay £6000+ a year to get the train into work.

    Also this group of earners just above £60K a year have seen if they have 2 children of under 18 a reduction of their take home income of 10% since January 20012 in addition to the other income cuts as a result of the austerity policies.

    Trust me there isn’t a lot of expensive foreign holidays private schooling and Mercedes being driven on a disposable income after fixed living costs of around £200 per week for a family of 4 ,just a lot of careful food purchases from discount supermarkets and the odd week in a caravan in Skegness!

    – While if you are living rent or mortgage free have no children or dependants and live outside of the South East of this is certainly a comfortable level of income
    it doesn’t place you in the mega rich band there either.

  45. I blame hi house prices and soaring rents for the need for both parents to work. non of the main parties will sort that problem out

  46. On a lighter note, I just discovered this website and what it does: h ttp://www.gizoogle.net/xfer.php?link=http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/&sa=U&ei=Pnc9UuquHJOX0AWf-oGoDg&ved=0CBkQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNFJnzBFBloSch22vL88-aRfGugBWA

    I will be reading UKPR through this from now on!

  47. “Either way, polls durin conference season go n’ up down n’ it rarely pays ta git too buckwild bout em. Da falterin lead is hardly a phat start fo’ Labour’s conference yo, but next week they’ll probably git they own boost from they own conference publicity.”

  48. There’s an article in the Guardian today that I think sums up the bedroom tax exactly how its working. I posted for the first time last night at 10:49 so it went into auto mod.
    I work in Housing Benefit dealing with the current welfare reforms, mostly “bedroom tax” or Social Sector Size Criteria (SSSC) cases to give it its official name, but we’re starting to get some benefit cap cases through now as well.
    I deal with about 7 to 10 cases a day requesting help through Discretionary Housing Payments and about 4 or 5 a day of those will be quite similar to the case in the guardian.

    http ://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/sep/20/bedroom-tax-despair-tory-village

    We’re not even 6 months into the SSSC, and rent arrears are only just building up, with some peoples quite often meagre savings already eaten up paying the charge and others just completely unable or unwilling to pay.
    Its getting colder now too so people will have to chose between paying their rent or topping up the gas and electricity pre-payment meters.
    The case study in the article is just the tip of an iceberg of potentially very bad publicity that the government are going to get from this policy. I could easily write an article like this every day. And I’m only 1 person from 4 working on these cases in 1 authority.

    I can’t see how this can go on for nearly 2 years until the next election without it having some impact of polling figures.
    It’s a case of waiting for the first (possible mass?) evictions to hit the headlines and judging by the number of Notices Seeking Possession I’m encountering they can’t be that far away.

    This policy plays straight into the theme of an uncaring, out of touch “nasty party”.

    It really can’t go on for 2 years without a U turn or at least some back tracking with the charge being pegged to refusing an offer of a smaller property.

  49. @ Raskey

    It’s a fair point but what is your solution? Free school meals for children of registered drug addicts or alcoholics? Additionally if the working parents pay through their taxes for a section of society to get free school meals (which is what happens anyway) why should they not get the benefit of one as well? There should be economies of scale as well because the cost of a school meal should be cheaper than the cost of a packed lunch (or at least more nutritious)

    Breakfast clubs have given an incredible boost to education- arguably the number one improvement for concentration and behaviour and additionally opens up extra job opportunities for parents being able to drop off kids earlier.

  50. @HoofHearted

    I blame hi house prices and soaring rents for the need for both parents to work. non of the main parties will sort that problem out

    This is only a partial answer, and entirely misses out the fact that society has changed (although probably not enough), giving women a greater role in the workplace.

    If house prices were halved, it would not alter the fact that women want and deserve a bigger role in the economic life. As men have not sufficiently taken over the child care roles (nor ever likely to probably), both parents working will not change broadly.

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