Tom Newton Dunn at the Sun has just tweeted out tomorrow morning’s YouGov figures for the Sun. Topline voting intention figures are CON 36%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%.

It’s the first time that the Conservatives have caught Labour in a YouGov poll since March 2012 (during that period between Cameron’s European “veto” and the omnishambles budget), although ICM also had a poll showing them neck-and-neck a few months back.

I will obviously add all my usual caveats about any unusual poll – sure, it could be that the Tories have actually caught up with Labour after a couple of polls showing the lead down to three or four points… but just as likely that it’s just a bit of an outlier. It’s the trend that counts, so keep an eye over the next few days to see if there are more very small (or absent) Labour leads…


283 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 12”

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  1. We do – the Green Party!

    Also much of the base of the Labour Party, although not necessarily the leadership.

  2. Billiy bob

    Even he acknowledgers we have a big problem with current economic policy, with quotes like this.

    “The UK economy is stagnating and their national debt is now soaring out of control.”

  3. @The Other Howard (4.05)

    “Not my job but it can be done. Many services would go and we would have to pay for NHS treatment but that is coming anyway. I believe in low taxes and paying for services required. Indeed at the moment i pay twice for healthcare, not complaining about it just stating a fact.”

    Nice to know you have so much concern for those not as fortunate as yourself !!

  4. Peter Bell

    Just being realistic about the long term for this country, nothing to do with whether or not I have sympathy for those less well off than myself. In fact I do have sympathy for those worse off through no fault of their own and for those their has to be a safely net of some sort. For the idle bu’**ers i have none.

  5. Hoofhearted

    Re your comment on the NHS. The IMF or whoever forces us into real austerity when we go broke.

  6. I think today’s poll is likely to be an outlier. The weighting is stark (and I have noticed that is more likely to produce outliers).
    I think we will need to look at the polling post conference season. We do feel as if we are already in campaign period. Interestingly, some of Labour’s target areas are obviously seen as weaknessess by the Tory-led govt. Presumably we that is why we are seeing policies such as free school meals (pioneered by Islington Labour in opposition in 2008 and rolled out in 2010) and today announcements on rail fares (Labour is runnning a campaign on ‘the Tory train robbery’).

  7. TOH

    I agree we need to cut the size of the government, that’s why I think we need to start now and not wait until we need to ring the IMF.

    All the cuts so far have gone on funding tax cuts on dropping the 50% tax rate, increasing the tax free allowance to 10K, and funding “Triple Locked” pension rises, the country can’t afford. Try compounding a 4% pension rises by 50 years, plus an ageing population vastly increasing the number of pensioners.

  8. Graham

    I’m aware it went to a second ballot with Brown, but it’s still not the same as being a part of a group that plots against an incumbent leader to get there own man/woman elected as leader, that can cause divisions in a party for years which was my point.

    I’m not a fan of EM but I don’t see anybody in the current Labour party who could take over from him at this late stage before a GE and carry a united party with them.

  9. Turk,

    Brown did not take his defeat with good grace. He always bore a grudge and eventually sulked out of the Government in March 1968.

  10. Earlier on this thread and on previous threads, there have been comments to the effect that Darling should replace Balls to boost Lab VI.

    One thought. Who proposed Darling to lead the No campaign which has effectively prevented him taking any role in the Lab party. Was it Cameron, because, if so, it was a smart move as Darling could well have increased Labs standing by at least a couple of points

  11. @Tony Dean

    Yes, Miss Davies was quite handy at the soundbite thing.

    Maybe she should have been Labour leader after all…

  12. RICHARD
    ” those graphs clearly answer the question. Neither! But it looks like we are in for some hard times ahead….”

    Don’t worry about it. Read the Alzheimer ad If you are taking your flu injections, you may look worried, but youll never know what’s the matter.

  13. @MRNAMELESS

    “So as a result, taxes will need to be raised on everyone else. I’d argue £50,000+ should be the bracket where rises kick in.”

    ————

    Unless you’re a babyboomers with everything paid for, good pension, nice property boost, etc., £50k doesn’t go far these days…

  14. statmeister

    “I always smile when people set an ‘ideal amount’.”

    Bit weird but here’s another for you:

    £46

  15. PETER BELL

    In the full YG/Times poll tables now published
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yo2tn77guq/YouGov_Times_FINAL_16-Sep-2013.pdf

    there is a question on how much people trust a range of politicians (on the indy question – but I suspect that the responses would be similar on any issue)

    While more intending Lab voters trust Milliband more than Darling, Tory voters like Darling more than their own local leader Ruth Davidson (though less than Cameron).

    Sounds like Darling could be a great New Labour choice!

  16. @Carfrew, flip mate….50k is a lot of money. Always fun to see what people think ain’t much.

  17. @Doggies

    That’s silly. £46 per year wouldn’t pay for dog biscuits.

  18. Graham

    George Brown was a alcoholic and the reason he lost his position of Foreign secretary was because after being missing for several days he turned up drunk proceeded to have a drunken argument with Wilson over not being called to a privy council meeting where devaluation of the pound was being discussed and refused to apologise to Wilson the next day for his drunken behaviour..

    Wilson accepted his resignation even though Brown later stated he never offered it, so he was pushed out of ministerial office rather than resigned under his own steam.

    Brown then went on to lose his seat in the 1970 GE to a Conservative candidate he never stood again going to the house of lords.

    In 1976 Brown announced he was leaving the Labour party to a group of reporters however this event was overshadowed because whilst announcing it, he fell over in the gutter drunk.

    All in all not a great loss to his party a much greater loss to the press although to be fair The Times next day run the headline “Lord George Brown drunk is a better man than the Prime Minister sober” at the time Wilson was Prime Minister.

  19. 50K is a lot of money here, not sure it would go that far in London, just about cover todays sky high rents. £50K topped up with another £30k in benefits for me and the 4 kids, 80K, that would be nice.

  20. 50k would be like being a God if you’re single, fantastic for a childless couple, great for a couple & 1 kid, fine for couple & 2 kids, a bit Miliband (carp) with 3 kids, and then kind of Govey on 4+

    In London, of course, you’d be able to rent a garage and eat baked beans for every meal…

  21. I wouldn’t get out of bed for 50k

  22. Turk

    Wilson always maintained that Brown’s problem was not so much that he was an alcoholic – but rather that he was a person incapable of absorbing even a modest amount without the effects being very apparent!

  23. Colin

    From that link

    “Meanwhile, output growth for the three months to September rose to its highest rate since August 2011”

    So output was growing faster in Aug 2011, so we are recovering more slowly than we were two years ago! Talk about spin

  24. Or…. output growth without a fiscal stimulus from additional public spending is now as strong as it was with that fiscal stimulus…..

  25. ………what Neil said.

  26. I love the idea that PPI refunds are powering UK car sales :-http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/10314700/Britain-bucks-trend-as-European-car-sales-fall-to-record-low.html

  27. RiN

    And I think forward manufacturing orders are more significant than current output.

    These are at the highest figure since August 2007 .

  28. Back from Dalmatia and apparently I missed a LD conference (oh, what a shame).

    They say travel broadens the mind but it certainly broadens the girth if you are not careful. The Makarska mosquitos certainly helped to lower my blood count if that helps slimming.

    We are still essentially in the silly season, even though I have just consumed my first Autumn apple (Discovery).

    Earlier, commenters were saying things about colour backgrounds and bias. I don’t see any correlation and I only display mine because I am a LD member (it just seems up front). Commenters who use bluey grey are capable of very partisan comments (some, all the time!).

    It seems to me that the only card that Clegg has to play is the one we all identified months ago, which is ‘we played our part (etc) in the economic recovery’. That is of course if there is to be one, for the people that matter, the swing voters.

  29. Colin

    Read it again with your brain engaged, how is normal measured, which normal are they talking about?

  30. ‘SNP tops latest poll on Scottish Parliament voting intentions’

    IpsosMORI/STV News
    Scottish Parliament voting intention
    Fieldwork: 9-15 September
    Sample size = 1000

    Constituency vote (FPTP):
    SNP 41%
    Lab 37%
    Con 13%
    LD 7%

    Net leader satisfaction:
    Patrick Harvie +11
    Alex Salmond +8
    Johann Lamont +6
    Ruth Davidson +/-0
    Willie Rennie -5
    David Cameron -28

    Party supporters’ net satisfaction with leaders:
    David Cameron (among Con voters) +66
    Alex Salmond (among SNP voters) +64
    Willie Rennie (among LD voter) +44
    Ruth Davidson (among Con voters) +39
    Johann Lamont (among Lab voters) +39

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/240014-holyrood-voting-poll-snp-on-top-while-labour-makes-gains/

  31. Richard

    I’m not sure what “normal” you are refering to-but I can guess.

    The guts of the September CBI Manufacturing survey is :-

    “Stephen Gifford, CBI Director of Economics, said:

    “This month’s results show the manufacturing recovery continuing to gather pace.“Order books are the fullest they’ve been since the start of the financial crisis, and firms are ramping up production to meet demand.
    “Firms are more upbeat about growth prospects in the coming quarter than at any time since 1995.”

    I think that qualifies as “better” /”improving”.

    And given the base date surpassed for both prospects & order book , my view is that it qualifies as “good”.

  32. I presume, (looking back over postings) that if the equality Con / Lab is not maintained, we will not be treated to a Sun tweet (not that I have the faintest idea what that is).

  33. More Yougov poll leakings for tonights poll on the Twittersphere…..or maybe not!

    https : //twitter.com/RedRag1

  34. Colin

    Yes he said that but it is a gross misrepresentation of that survey because he is interpreting a relative survey as an absolute survey. Order books might be the fullest they have been since the start of the crisis but the survey doesn’t say that, it says that the order books are fuller than normal but what is normal today might well be a lot less than what was normal in 2007, we don’t know because “normal” isn’t defined, in fact order books can be less than last year and still be higher than normal IF perceptions of “normal” have fallen very fast in the last year, which I think is unlikely but the reporting of this survey is like the reporting of an unweighted poll

  35. RiN

    @”Yes he said that but it is a gross misrepresentation of that survey ”

    Fair enough-you’d better take it up with the CBI then.

  36. Colin

    I’m not complaining that he’s misrepresenting the survey, that’s his job, if he wasn’t spinning it as aggressively as he can then he would be derelict in his duty. I’m complaining that you read it without seeing though the spin, I expect better from you

  37. RiN

    No-that’s not his “job”.

    I don’t think the CBI is there to misrepresent what it’s members are saying.

    There is a page on the website which explains their survey methods-and a link to ask questions about them.

    I am happy at their general conclusions in this survey. I don’t think Gifford’s remarks are problematic.

    But we will see-like all surveys it will be tested by future outcomes.

  38. Why do the French only use one egg to make an omelette?

    In France one egg is un oeuf.

  39. @Hoof
    “despite the vile bedroom tax(as a pensioners I have to pay this)”

    What tosh ! Pensioners are exempt from the bedroom tax. There’s an argument that says if releasing larger properties was the aim then pensioners would have been included but they aren’t.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-work-pensions/series/local-authorities-removal-of-the-spare-room-subsidy

    @Steve
    ‘Uefa members have backed a move to a winter tournament in Qatar’

    Utter madness isn’t it. Two seasons will be disrupted & all for the sake of moving a tournament to a country more suitable – some might say the reason why they won’t is down to the lure of the brown envelope…..

  40. 50k soon diminishes once you take stoppages – 40% tax, increased pension contributions etc. – into account. Then factor in buying a house at today’s prices (bearing in mind that these low interest rates aren’t likely for ever), and you’re not much better off than someone earning rather less but who got on the property ladder in the Nineties, etc., (if not worse off).

    That’s before you factor in things like tuition fees too, stuff like that, and the way boomers mostly kept the better pensions, so youngsters need to earn more now for retirement…

  41. German latest INSA poll out today for voting in Sunday’s General Election.

    Results show AfD actually breaking through 5% threshold level to win 30+ seats in Bundestag and thus depriving Merkel’s coalition of a majority.

    Results:

    CDU/CSU 38
    SPD 28
    Linke 9
    Green 8
    FDP 6
    AfD 5
    Pirate 2
    Others 4

  42. @HOOFHEARTED

    “I agree we need to cut the size of the government, that’s why I think we need to start now and not wait until we need to ring the IMF.
    All the cuts so far have gone on funding tax cuts on dropping the 50% tax rate, increasing the tax free allowance to 10K, and funding “Triple Locked” pension rises, the country can’t afford. Try compounding a 4% pension rises by 50 years, plus an ageing population vastly increasing the number of pensioners.”

    ———–

    Cuts hamper growth because they take money out of the economy. Consequently the deficit didn’t shrink as much as hoped.

    If you’re serious about reducing the debt and worry about the tax thing, well then a wealth tax might just be up your street. Unlock the money tied up in inflated property prices to pay down the debt…

    … And you can do this WITHOUT diminishing growth and seeing business investment fall, and tax receipts falling and welfare costs going up, which hampers deficit reduction, like what happened with the cuts…

  43. I would love £50,000. In fact, I would even love a salary of £20,000 or £25,000. I’d feel really rich compared to now. In fact, I’d just like a job…£15,000 would do me fine…I’d be very happy. No matter how many applications I make, no employer seems to want me.

  44. No Sun tweet so we lefties can go to bed happy. Good night all and sweet dreams. Might be Lab lead of 10% tomorrow morning.

  45. Colin

    I watched that item on the news about PPI being used as deposites for new cars.

    So the banks pay out ppi the customer put that down as a deposit and presumably borrow the money from the bank for repayments, so the bank makes money on the financial deal it’s true money just goes round and round.

  46. Aw why has my post gone into automod? I only wished everyone good night.

  47. AS

    Sorry to hear that. I’m sure something will turn up.

  48. @Hoofhearted,

    Thanks. If it doesn’t, I will try to get a bit more voluntary experience in the meantime and/or maybe start something up myself.

  49. YG Con 34% Lab35% Ldem11% UKIP 11%

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