Tom Newton Dunn at the Sun has just tweeted out tomorrow morning’s YouGov figures for the Sun. Topline voting intention figures are CON 36%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%.

It’s the first time that the Conservatives have caught Labour in a YouGov poll since March 2012 (during that period between Cameron’s European “veto” and the omnishambles budget), although ICM also had a poll showing them neck-and-neck a few months back.

I will obviously add all my usual caveats about any unusual poll – sure, it could be that the Tories have actually caught up with Labour after a couple of polls showing the lead down to three or four points… but just as likely that it’s just a bit of an outlier. It’s the trend that counts, so keep an eye over the next few days to see if there are more very small (or absent) Labour leads…

283 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 12”

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  1. “Ofcourse the are Ambivilent – I just thought I would post the information. We are not going to get all thought police on here are we?”

    Nope, of course not. My point merely being the fact that unweighted polls are completely meaningless should be borne in mind.

  2. I saw Nick Clegg’s PPB yesterday. Say what you like about him but he can sell.No rubish abot policy just ‘ I’ve just put
    600 pounds in your pocket’.

  3. RED RAG

    Just a hunch-you pick up vibes-wouldn’t you agree?

  4. No, people post crap no matter what party they support.

  5. They do indeed Red Rag-well spotted.

  6. There is an idiot on here pretending to be a Lib Dem who is actually a multi-user Tory. Unless you knew he was a loon, you would say he was a Lib Dem.

  7. Well at least that lasted half a day before it devolved into pointless bickering.

    Anyway, seeing some commenters on CiF talking about ‘Young people flocking to the Tories’. Utter rubbish, but I’d like to see the long-term VI for the different age groups.

  8. @Red Rag,

    “No, people post crap no matter what party they support.”

    Yep, I know I do most of the time!

    I find the proportion of members of UKPR supporting each political party tends to change over time with how each party is doing in the polls. At the moment, Labour are ahead, so there are naturally more Labourites on here. If the Tories were to go ahead, I expect more Tory voters would post on here.

  9. @ Hoofhearted

    You’re lucky- Anthony must have a hangover otherwise you’d be in automod by now. You are not meant to give solely political opinions on this site. Obviously posts about polling give rise to grey areas but your posts have not been grey in the slightest.

  10. Mr Nameless – If memory serves me right generally Labour have a healthy lead but there are polls that shows the Conservatives in front every now and again.

    Similar to the youth vote, the Wales/Midlands usually shows Labour between 2% and 9% in front. However, in the last few days, a couple of polls have shown the Conservatives in front (15% and 9%).

  11. Shevi

    90% of posts on here are biased. I’ve seen UKIP and |Tory posters hounded off of this site. And anything anti-immigration is jumped on. You think that is not biased?

    It is no surprise EM is so unpopular in Scotland, EM or AS? Easy choice

  12. @Red Rag, Mr Nameless,

    Anthony actually posted about ‘the youth vote going Tory’ myth a while back. Basically, a few odd results from Yougov cross-sectional polls using tiny samples does not mean that younger voters are turning Tory. Far from it, as you both say.

    The under 25s are still more centre-left and Labour-inclined than Tory. To claim anything less would be sloppy journalism.

  13. “I’ve seen UKIP and |Tory posters hounded off of this site”…any chance of backing this up with evidence? Can you name any of the said hounded posters and who the houndees are please?

  14. I don’t think we hound out Tory/UKIP supporters. Colin, Turk, TOH, Richard are all still here.

  15. There is no statistical reason not to think the Labour lead is soft and is shrinking (including the fact that the tracker has it shrinking).

    Economic optimism is growing, EM’s approval stays stubbornly negative, DC is consistently seen as best PM, Con are considered to be trusted more on the economy, DC & GO are considered to be better on the economy than EM & EB, even on Syria (where he was closer to public opinion) he was considered to have handled the matter worse than DC.

    Taken together it is reasonable to assume that the Lab leads are caused by hostility to the Tories, anger at LD going into coalition, and govt incompetence on a range of areas. But not because of a love of Labour – EM has not sealed the deal, and I would not be that surprised if many of the LDs come floating back come 2015.

  16. Hey Mr Nameless – and don’t forget about ME in that list – lol

  17. I can’t see all 3 parties going into the 2015 election with the same leader. The one that changes it will do very well indeed because all 3 are disliked and a new leader will do very well indeed just like NF did in the locals, and likely to win the European 2014 election.

  18. @Hoofhearted – Nah – I don’t agree with you on that one – I think DC is very well liked throughout the UK and EM is not trusted on anything and is disliked intensely – NC is a busted flush anyway -lol

    Now that is exactly what you would expect a good Tory to say of course – none of it entirely true of course but all good fun eh?

  19. ““I’ve seen UKIP and |Tory posters hounded off of this site”…any chance of backing this up with evidence? Can you name any of the said hounded posters and who the houndeed are please?”

    That’s why no one will post with a LD, UKIP or Tory highlighted background. Dozens with Labour Green or SNP ones. Proof of a biased site.

    I even remember some guy with bnp in his user name, reg I think, people being very rude to him, where did he go?

  20. The backgrounds are being phased out, I think AW said. Plus there are plenty of Tory/UKIP backgrounds over on the constituency guide.

  21. Also, the ‘Dozens with Labour, Green or SNP ones’ seems to include our one resident Green and two SNP-ers.

  22. I can’t see NC lasting until 2015, I think 12 months before the GE would be a good time for the party to replace him. DC looks safe(for now), despite the vile bedroom tax(as a pensioners I have to pay this), and EM will come under pressure if the polls don’t improve or UKIP win in 2014.

    12 months ago I would have put my savings(small) on Labour winning a working majority in 2015, now I think they will struggle, especially if the economy does recover, and a few bribes to taxpayers, like free school meals and a freeze in fuel duty.

  23. “Also, the ‘Dozens with Labour, Green or SNP ones’ seems to include our one resident Green and two SNP-ers.”

    I have seen several Green and SNP, never a LD, UKIP, and 1 Tory and he’s gone now.

    Why do you think that is?

  24. Re: past UKPR members leaving,

    I think you undoubtedly have to be a bit thick-skinned at times on here at times, despite the generally good-spirited nature of any banter. Some people are very stubborn and always think that they are right (and those who disagree with them are naïve/thick/evil; insert as appropriate). There’s a reason why politics and religion should never be discussed at a dinner party; namely, that it tend to descend into heated discussions or arguments.

    However, considering that it is a politics site, and that many people on here clearly have very strongly-held opinions and views, I think it’s a pretty civil place on the whole. Despite the differences in opinion, I think most people are able to show a certain kind of respect and tolerance of such differences. Certainly compared to other political sites anyway, I find.

  25. @ Hoofhearted

    90% of posts probably are biased but only on polling matters. So a Tory poster might say Lab should be 15% ahead or EM’s poor ratings will affect the 2015 GE and a Lab poster might say the ratings won’t and the Lab core is solid and enough to win. What people don’t do is tend to have a go at politicians or political views (although it does creep in).

    Funnily enough on Immigration I think there have been some semi decent debates on here.

    No-one has been hounded off this site- sure us lefties disagree with comments made by Colin, TOH and Turk but , I hope, not in a hounding off manner and I think most if not all of the regulars respect their views and are pleased to have them here as they add to the debate greatly.

  26. Oh well, should make for an interesting Labour Party Conference. Just getting my bag packed. Is anyone else going?

  27. There used to be lots of golden backgrounds here but most of them have turned to grey or just stopped posting

  28. Hoofhearted – “I have seen several Green and SNP, never a LD, UKIP, and 1 Tory and he’s gone now”….NEVER A LD you say….you don’t look very far, there is a LD poster on this thread.

  29. Hoofhearted

    There is no such thing as a bedroom tax. I presume you mean your benefit has been reduced. I can of course understand why your cross about that, same as I feel when taxes are put up.

  30. Oh dear, I can see Anthony will need the naughty seat again. A partisan comment is one where people reading can identify a bias towards or against one particular party.

    In the main, I don’t find regular contributors are partisan in a particularly strong way. Of course over a period of time, you will know where they stand politically.

    If you want a partian pro Tory forum comments page, then go over to Political Betting. There are a few on that site, who go on the attack, if anyone criticises the Tories or says anything positive about Labour or EM.

  31. Yes there is an odd LD
    And how many UKIP and Tory?

    1 SNP, really I can name 2 from the top of my head oldnat and peter cairns, and I’ve seen more.

    Argumentative that’s the word Ambi

  32. @Ambiv – supporter – I like that post, very fair and level headed.
    This site is great (most of the time) and yes there are serious differences of opinion as one would expect but in the main we all get along with each other with a bit of a nod and a wink. ;)

  33. There are people, like myself, who are active politically but who choose to leave that behind on what is a non-partisan site about polling.

    I specifically chose to remove my party ID back drop in the spirit of non-partisanship.

  34. Sine Nomine

    Try criticising EM or speaking about immigation and you will get a different response.

  35. “No, people post crap no matter what party they support.”


    Please stop responding to HH by the way – it encourages and is pointless. He’s worse than owr dad who’s always banging on about Arsenal, winning runs, ten away victories on the trot, top of the league and so on.

  36. Silly season it seems…

  37. Rosie

    People have their own mind. Again a poster trying to “control” others, proves my point really.

    What am I guilty of? Criticising all of the parties and the uninspiring 3 main leaders.

    I am left of centre anti-EU, not what any of the main parties stand for, so no I am not a Tory, I voted Labour in 2010.

  38. The problem Labour has is it has moved to the centre under EM, where many supporters are working class and want a party more to the left and the party are pro-immigration, when most supports are anti-immigration.

    Polling this low when the country is in a crisis surprises me, I would have thought they would be polling mid 40’s, and Tories high 20’s. So the party is not connecting with voters.

  39. Not sure if anyone has picked up this mornings retail sales figures – down 0.9% in August (month on month). It’s a big fall, and very much against the expectations of a moderate increase, and gives some hard evidence to back up some retailers who were warning about over exuberant interpretation of recent statistics.

    This is the first major negative number in the main set of interesting statistics, and for my money is probably one of the key ones to watch. We know that a large proportion of the UK economy is directed by consumer spending, we also know that inflation is still outstripping earnings by about 2% pa, and we know that the collapse in savings ratios can’t continue – at some point, higher spending based on dipping into savings will run out, unless savings ratios turn upwards again.

    Therefore, to my pea brained logic, if the sudden boost in spending does turn out to be short lived, the first signs we are likely to see of this would appear in retail sales.

  40. Labour’s monthly average (so far) is still where it was in August on my list. Conservatives’ monthly average is up. The month’s not two thirds gone yet, however.

    We’ll soon see if this individual poll was a rogue or not, just as we soon saw – and no one really thought anywya – that Labour’s recent 41 was a representative of the real state of affairs.

    Someone above made the interesting point that a level pegging score, i.e. gap 0, on You Gov is odd. There was one on another poller a short while back, but nothing like it on You Gov. The Conservative rise could be significant, although I don’t think there’s serious evidence it’s affecting the Labour score.

    Looking at ‘tops and bottoms’, i.e. highest and lowest scores, we see that in August Labour’s highest point was 41 and its lowest 35. This month it’s 41 and 36 so far. Conservative highest in August was 34 and its lowest 28. This month so far it’s 36 and 31. That’s a rise. UKIP meanwhile were 19 and 8 in August, as opposed to 13 and 7 this month. LD’s were 14 &nd 8 in both months. So Tories take from UKIP overall.

    LD Conference was interesting. It backed Nick Clegg, but the delegates were well to the left of the leadership, and clearly sticking together to save the ship. No bounce for the LD’s there then. Nick Clegg produced a ‘goodie’ to end up with and argued that the LD’s make coalitions work. All that appears to have done is feed a crumb or two to the Coalition’s senior partner.

    All still hangs, I would suggest, on the ability of the Tories to dislodge more than a bit of the pointing to the UKIP house. They need to dislodge quite a lot of it actually.

  41. Nice to see the UKPR has been updated.
    Starting to look a little better methinks!

  42. Never felt hounded on here even though i am a sensitive person (who am i kidding).

  43. Starting arguments by posting inflammatory, accidentally or with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response.


  44. Alec

    I agree with your analysis of the retail sales figures. These are not going to do anything but fluctuate up and down until the recovery is felt by mosts people and that is certainly unlikely at the moment with wage increases held down and inflation still above target.

  45. “…. So Tories take from UKIP overall.”

    If that continues, could we get a Tory majority in 2015?


    Retail sales down is no surprise to people who live in the real world(unlike many politicians, like Gove) where incomes are being squeezed . The increase in tax free allowance to 10K has helped, but unless working people get another rise, then incomes will be squeezed further and expect further falls in retail sales.
    But the government doesn’t care is retail sales fall because rises in house prises will offset this in the short term.

    I really don’t see evidence of a recovery north of the M25.

  46. @hoofhearted

    “That’s why no one will post with a LD, UKIP or Tory highlighted background.”

    I had a few posts with ‘David’, with a Lib Dem BG yesterday. As far as I know, Anthony was considering doing away with them anyway.

    If you like I’ll pop on a Blue, Orange or Purple one to cheer you up.

  47. @Shevii

    “What people don’t do is tend to have a go at politicians or political views (although it does creep in).”

    I think politicians are fair game if they warrant it (legal cases pending not included). What I find unacceptable is when one politician behaves in a given manner in their personal or private life, and partisan folk label said politician’s party and all other party politicians along similar lines.

    Yes, all politicians are generally considered to be ‘snouts in the trough’ and ‘useless’ folk, but that’s a fairly universal thing. Polling suggests that Labour voters think the Conservatives are at it, and Conservative voters think that Labour are at it (and insert Lib Dems to suit one’s own political slant etc).

  48. @Norbold

    “Oh well, should make for an interesting Labour Party Conference. Just getting my bag packed. Is anyone else going?”

    You’ll never see me at one (any party). Nothing more than a sales-team motivational seminar.

    What we should have are Con party members going to Lab conferences and vice versa. Now that would be a challenge!

  49. @AW – True sorry! – Just felt I needed to respond to the very word ‘Crisis’ :(

  50. It will be interesting to see how long the Labour bounce from the up coming Labour conference will last.
    The last conference with a good speech from EM helped keep Labour in a healthy lead for a considerable period, this time round things have changed, with UKPR showing the Labour lead at it’s lowest for a couple of years (whatever happened to that 100 plus lead eh) and EM personal ratings at a new low.

    The biggest problem for EM will be if there is no bounce or the bounce fades within a week or so, his leadership will come under close attention from his own party, I don’t think there would be a leadership change it’s to late for a new leader to make a impact ,but it could lead to public infighting within Labour ranks which may have a impact on VI.

    Of course being interested in politic’s maybe I’m reading far to much in conference season, but to pick up on my last post the general public won’t be watching much of the various conferences, but they will be fed a diet of highlights through the media so on that level they are important and although all leaders need to make a impact for EM making a good speech with plenty of new policies could mean the difference between winning or losing the next GE.

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