Tom Newton Dunn at the Sun has just tweeted out tomorrow morning’s YouGov figures for the Sun. Topline voting intention figures are CON 36%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%.

It’s the first time that the Conservatives have caught Labour in a YouGov poll since March 2012 (during that period between Cameron’s European “veto” and the omnishambles budget), although ICM also had a poll showing them neck-and-neck a few months back.

I will obviously add all my usual caveats about any unusual poll – sure, it could be that the Tories have actually caught up with Labour after a couple of polls showing the lead down to three or four points… but just as likely that it’s just a bit of an outlier. It’s the trend that counts, so keep an eye over the next few days to see if there are more very small (or absent) Labour leads…


283 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 36, LD 10, UKIP 12”

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  1. Why have Labour dipped ?

    A year ago, Labour had a 10% + lead.

    My instinct is that everytime Labour are asked a question about what alternative policy they would introduce, they don’t give an answer, The keep saying that they will look at the countries financial situation ahead of the GE in 2015 and will publish an alternative costed manifesto.

    I suspect that many voters will be pretty peed off with Labour, as they complain about government policies, but then refuse to give a firm committment of an alternative policy. This is bound to be reflected in polling and may be the reason for the neck and neck situation we are in.

  2. TURK

    If that is accurate, then LIZH is only a zero out! :-)

  3. @Carfrew

    It’s not 40% on 50K, it’s 40% on 18K of that.

  4. Is this the start of the LD bounce?

  5. In fact it’s 40% of 8K, my mistake.

  6. “YG Con 34% Lab35%”

    The fightback begins.

  7. Con 34%, Lab 35%?

    So Lab have dropped 2-3% in two days, while Con have kind of stayed where they are.

    Two outliers in two days?

  8. @LizH

    “No Sun tweet so we lefties can go to bed happy. Good night all and sweet dreams. Might be Lab lead of 10% tomorrow morning.”

    Cough!

  9. Oldnat

    It’s a sun YG poll released by Tom Dunt on twitter tonight same as yesterday.

  10. @Statgeek

    Depends whether Turk’s post was genuine or a prediction.

  11. 35% has Labour was a Maj of 4 on electorial calculus

  12. @RAF

    See the sun politics twitter:

    https://twitter.com/Sun_Politics

  13. It has been confirmed. The latest poll, that is.

    Seems like yesterday’s poll wasn’t such a fluke….lead is almost certainly down with Yougov, though I expect Labour may still be marginally ahead. Maybe 1-3%.

    Question is what will happen after all the conferences. It’s now Ed’s chance to really get through to voters and
    convince them to vote Labour again.

  14. @Statgeek

    Yes, I think most of us understand how tax thresholds work, Statgeek.

  15. Maybe the sudden fall in Labour VI is because Clegg was talking about a coalition with Labour, perhaps if Labour had come out and said “no way no how” they would still have a comfortable lead

  16. If EM’s only excuse for a long absence by himself and his “team” is memorising another long speech, then he should try just reading the buggers.

  17. Conference season is known for some fairly interesting and erratic polling. I think it will only really mean anything significant when we get to, say, November/Dec and things start to really settle down. Only then can we really see where things stand.

    So I’d urge caution when interpreting polls for the next month or so.

  18. @Carfrew

    The point being that to say “Well there’s 40% tax on 50K” is misleading.

  19. It’s a bit surprising Labour haven’t been polling 34/35 occasionally before now, given they’ve been averaging around 38% and 35 is within MoE.

    And you’d expect something outside MoE around 5% of the time…

    Not that this necessarily means the latest figures are MoE…

  20. ambi – from 45 to 35 looks serious whatever the current season.

  21. @statgeek

    It would be if I had said that.

  22. Ambivalentsupporter.

    That may be true but what we usually see is a bounce for a party after there conference, not a drop off immediately before conference starts.

    My guess is good economic news is beginning to play on VI as is Labours choice of leadership, not helped by the revelations in tomorrows Daily Mail which will be a talking point in the media for a couple of day’s no doubt.

  23. @ Turk

    There is a drop and it’s very clear. But there is no positive economic news (just the opposite).

    @ Anthony Wells

    Is there a minor methodological tweak? I suppose not, because you mention it, I just don’t find the hook to put this somewhat dripping, somewhat sudden change on.

  24. “because you WOULD HAVE mentionED” – smart phone screen and posting…

  25. Laszlo – no methodological change (and indeed, if there had been I’d have said so!)

  26. Put polling aside for the next four hours or so – the full length version of Das Boot is just starting on Film 4…

  27. @ Anthony

    Thanks. I was sure, but I had to ask because of the puzzle of LD conference increasing Con proportion {although a narrative would be simple, yet the data doesn’t support it).

  28. Iam sceptical of this polling change and I am going to wait fr other polls to confirm it.Nothing has changed in the last week or so for this shortening and indeed other polls seem to show a stabilisation of the lead around 3-4 points.

  29. Personally I think it’s the economy. Labour haven’t quite found an angle on the recovery yet. The living standards theme may work in time but it doesn’t seem to have struck a chord as yet.

    The downside for the Tories is that any sudden reversal in the economy now would be catastrophic for them. You can’t use the same escape pod twice.

  30. I think no party will win more than 35% at a British general election ever again.

    The electorate is simply too fragmented now.

  31. @ Smukesh

    “Nothing has changed in the last week”.

    Not quite true. If I understood it well, the LD will insist on a new law abolishing the minus sign so the budget deficit will count as surplus once the law is passed.

  32. @all

    * New thread
    * I got firsties
    * I win ukpollingreport…:-)

    rgdsm

  33. Neil A

    Yes, more or less. But actually Labour hasn’t really pushed the living standard one either. Pushing it could be a very bad move anyway.

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