Today’s YouGov voting intention figures for the Sun are CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. The four point lead is towards the lower end of YouGov’s recent averages, and suggests the government’s defeat over Syria had no lasting effect upon party support. Perhaps the 10 point Labour lead at the weekend was a freak co-incidence, a normal outlier that just happened to appear straight after a government defrat, or perhaps it was a genuine but short lived effect in a poll conducted when the media was plastered with news of the government’s troubles. We’ll never know. Tabs are here.
There were also some extra Syria questions for the Sun which found opposition to military action hardening up in the aftermath of the vote. 69% of people are now opposed to the idea of a British missile attack on Syria (up from 50% just before the vote), 73% of people now think Parliament was right to block action (up from 68% straight after the vote). Tabs here.
Also out this morning was another Scottish referendum poll, this time from TNS BMRB (the successors via various mergers to System Three, a far better known brand in Scottish polling!). TNS show referendum voting intentions of YES 25%(-8), NO 47%(-5), Don’t knows 28%(+13). Changes are since TNS’s last referendum poll in February, though this one is apparently the start of a more regular series of polls. John Curtice already has an analysis up here – note the caveat about the sample. TNS BMRB don’t use any political weighting (I assume for similar reasons to MORI’s worries about levels of false recall), but it can result in samples like this one, where more people claimed to have voted Labour in the 2011 Holyrood election than claimed to have voted SNP.