Today’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (tabs here), the weekly Friday Populus poll meanwhile has figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9% (tabs here). Needless to say, both polls were conducted before the government’s defeat over Syria, so are already a bit out of date.

We’ll know over the next few days what the impact of the Syria vote is on public opinion. Unlike many political events, it is at least something people notice (in the weekly Populus poll on what news stories people have noticed 61% said Syria), but it obviously isn’t something that directly affects many British people’s lives. Unless there are actual wars with widespread casualties, people tend to vote on things like the economy, health, taxes and so on, not on quarrels in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. Perhaps of more interest will be the effect on perceptions of the party leaders (which, in turn, may have their own knock on effects on voting intention) – will it make people see David Cameron as a less effective leader, or Ed Miliband as a more effective one? I would be surprised if there wasn’t at least some negative impact on Cameron’s ratings, but whether that is long term or quickly forgotten is an open question…


372 Responses to “Latest polls, and what might the impact of Syria be”

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  1. Amber,I suspect Suetonius was as well!

  2. I thought you might be amused at the German General Election faux pas by the FDP. They used the same image of a ‘happy family’ in their advert as had the extreme right wing party, the NPD.

    Here is the article.
    http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/2668/Buitenland/article/detail/3500756/2013/08/30/Blije-Duitse-familie-in-verkiezingsspotje-liberalen-en-extreem-rechts.dhtml

  3. To be fair to Dan Hodges Hodges, a biography of Glenda Jackson states that he ‘lost his left eye when a broken beer glass was shoved in his face after he stood up for two black men who were being taunted by whites in a south London pub.’

    The Daily Mail says it happened in 1992.

  4. It gets better. The article says that the clip has also been used in a Finnish advert for kwark (a yoghurt-ish drink).

    Worse still, the image was actually made in Slovenia which does not fit very well with a party (NDP) wanting racial purity in Germany.

    Use of stock art gets ever more ridiculous.

  5. Will the UK Parliament’s non- decision lead to a long pause overall on military action? There are signs it may result in a reduction in weaponry flowing,to both,sides by, their benefactors; and,pressure being applied,by, the, same to their,chosen, party for a, ceasefire.

  6. As the UN inspectors report first to the Secretary and then only tomorrow, I can’t imagine what Kerry could have to say shortly, unless we have two parallel ‘investigation’ teams here, the US and the UN. Note my inverted commas.

  7. @Billy Bob,
    Do you know the author?It would be fascinating reading,perhaps throwing some light on his pathological hatred of EM.

  8. What a speech.

    If Cameron had been able to give that detail , I think the vote would have been different. Looks like he couldn’t because it was US owned-and Kerry hadn’t released it yet.
    Crazy.

    Over 1400 dead-including 426 children, plus doctors & nurses .
    Rocket launch location & trajectories-bombardment to erase the evidence whilst UN Inspectors were delayed.
    Intercepted orders etc etc.

    UN INspectors will not assign responsibility-only define the agent used.

    Pretty depressing to hear no mention of UK-whilst France goes from “Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys” to” America’s Oldest Ally !”

    Cameron must be gutted.

  9. Chris Bryant (yes, that Chris Bryant) wrote a biography of Genda Jackson, beyond that I don’t know.

  10. Colin

    Yes I caught it on Huff, perhaps you saw the broadcast.

  11. I am dumfounded that Cameron could only wave that useless JIC letter-when Kerry releases all of this -the very next day.

    I don’t understand-some stupid timetable & intelligence protocols must have been the reason.

  12. HOWARD

    I did.

    My feeling is -this weekend.

  13. @Colin,
    What precisely is the source of Mr Kerry’s information?

  14. TRy again :-

    g-transcript-secretary-of-state-john-kerrys-remarks-on-syria-on-aug-30/2013/08/30/f3a63a1a-1193-11e3-85b6-d27422650fd5_story.html

  15. First polls to show any reaction to last night will be this weekend. I can’t see there being much movement, or if there is, it won’t last long. Obviously any slight movement will be blown out of all proportion by the Westminster bubble, and this will be the problem for Cameron.

  16. ANN

    Read/watch for yourself

    Google :-

    Washington Post-FULL TRANSCRIPT: Secretary of State John Kerry’s remarks on Syria.

    I can’t make the link work.

  17. @RED RAG

    Firstly,you got to be careful or you will be moderated.

    Given the media is predominantly right-wing they publicise good polls for the Tories and ignore bad polls for them.If a Labour leader had lost such a vote,they would be wanting his/her head on a platter.

  18. @Howard
    If Alec is right, then one could almost get the impression that DC’s heart was never in this anyway, really. I find that incredible
    —————————————————

    Perhaps the simple explanation is that it could be ‘her in doors’ that is bending his ear and pushing for ‘action’ ………………….

    http://news.sky.com/story/1115922/syria-samantha-cameron-pushing-for-action

  19. Or put it another way, if Labour stays at the top end of the bracket and UKIP gain a couple of points from the Conservative Party the gap opens up to 6-8%. All MOE of course but would be blown into “Disaster for Cameron”. It would then move the circus from Anti-Ed to Anti-Dave. Or it could just as likely be Labour 5-6% ahead and not much happening.

  20. Colin

    What price the ‘special relationship’ – or was it just embargoed and DC could not even hint at it (seems an unlikely scenario to me)?.

    I expect we shall find out all this in due course.

  21. Sorry to post in multiple. Of course the principle of acting through the UN (what actions?) still applies.

  22. So plenty of proof that an attack took place, but that was never in doubt, but no proof for casualty numbers which have jumped massively and the definitive proof that the govt did it is classified. Oh well it good enough for me, bombs away

  23. @ Anthony,

    My apologies. I shall atone by going back to work on my big YouGov dataset.

    @ Turk,

    Not sensitive, but certainly unnecessary and unkind. My apologies to you as well.

    @ Red Rag,

    Obviously any slight movement will be blown out of all proportion by the Westminster bubble, and this will be the problem for Cameron.

    I agree.

    And if Labour’s downward slide stops, it will be very hard to disentangle a possible effect of this vote from Labour hitting a natural plateau that might have been there anyway.

  24. THe White House intel release :-

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/164270521/USG-Assessment-on-Syria

    Howard-some intel chap on SKY news said there are “protocols” about ownership of de-classified intel.

    Fair enough-but why the hell let DC twist in the wind on Thursday with the JIC letter-and see the White House release the above today?

  25. Pity that Kerry missed the opportunity to talk about “Rosbif Eating Surrender Monkeys”. :-)

  26. The problem for him who cannot be criticized is the fact that like Blair towards the end of his reign, is that he has made that many enemies in his own party and in the media, they are itching to get him. You have to remember before the circus moved on to Red Ed, parts of it was attacking (h.w.c.b.c) with such venom.

    Will this just be a one off or is it the beginning of the end. By that I don’t me he will go, by that I mean they will do nothing but hinder him until the next election.

    The polls will play a significant part of whether it is one or the other, starting with this weekend.

  27. Colin

    I’ve just listen to Kerry’s speech I wonder if he is refering to American servelliance satellites being used to pick up the launch of missiles and there landing points as he was able to say they knew the exact details of the missile launches.

    Like you say it’s a shame DC wasn’t allowed to use that information last night and wasn’t aware when it was going to be released by the US, I suspect there’s a few troubled souls amongst the Tories dissenters right now and even amongst Labour ranks.

  28. OLDNAT

    FRance24 tv news showed a front page from a US pape ( don’ t know which”-with headlines :-

    The British Aren’t Coming.

    THe France24 tv chap admitted that someone had to explain that to him.

  29. TURK

    Yes-I expect there are.

    I must confess that whilst I am very conflicted about this-particularly the idea of a one off punitive strike-I felt pretty depressed & not a little ashamed listening to Kerry.

    THe lack of co-ordination seems so very strange.

  30. Spearmint – Without trying to sound like Dan Hodges and going on and on about the same thing for months on end. I think Labour has hit it’s natural plateaux for this parliament. As I have stated many times(sorry for bring everyone again) before Labour have been in the 36-40% bracket for now over 96% of polls since August 2013. Events like what happened last night will almost definitely cement the Lib Dem limpets ( as I like to call them) to the Labour mast who crossed over in 2010(between 30-38% of the Lib Demsd 2010 vote). Whether they are returning Labour voters after Iraq or just Lib Dems who dislike Nick/the coalition is another matter. For three years they have not budged and unless something huge happens I cannot see them doing up until the election.I quite imagine to them the “Ed is crap” campaign is just noise.

  31. “since August 2010” it should read.

  32. Very sad to see posters on here and the media in general worrying more about how it will alter leader perceptions and poll ratings.

    Somehow the murder of hundreds of children has got lost in all this rubbish.

  33. Colin
    In the absence of any other info – I ask what I did before – what price the ‘special relationship? In fairness, given the quoted reaction by the ‘In the Thick of it’ No 10 people, perhaps they did have it.

    But can one imagine Blair not gilding the lily with such information in such a debate?

    There is of course a smoking gun but the perp has yet to be positively id’d. Yes i have watched CSI.

    So what was Assad’s motive? We need Neil A and Steve but I am struggling to identify one. Why bring down the wrath of the US when you are doing rather well with the current ammo and are even getting help from across the border? It does seem that Hezbollah did the business for him, from what we have seen reported.

    If it were a renegade officer’s action, it would be a simple matter to announce it and deal with the fellow and announce reparations to the suffering suburb. Do they have intelligence, these people?

  34. I don’t understand why military action is ruled out. EM said over and over again that he was NOT ruling it out – just they should follow a process. The vote didn’t rule it out either. If DC really felt strongly he would have said he would come back with new motion after UN report etc

  35. HOWARD

    I don’t know about the special relationship-it isn’t my top concern in this at present.

    Kerry dealt with “motive” on that day-anyway-there are other instances of CW use cited by US & JIC-you want to understand the “motive” for every one ?

    Do “they ” have the intelligence ?-you can read it & you can make your mind up-that’s what it’s about Howard.
    You won’t get a signed photo-you have to make a judgement.

  36. Bluebob – This is a polling site, things like yesterdays vote will move polls. There will be children killed and it is an absolute disaster and those that do it are pure evil.

    I understand your view, however, by not debating the political consequences of last night will not save the same children.

  37. Colin

    LOL

    I first heard the “Cheese Eating” phrase in the US from a rather aggressive US ex-Marine, at a coffee shop on the corner of Lafayette St, NY.

    Concern for my personal safety prevented me from asking him if he knew why the street had that name.

  38. RED RAG

    @”t is an absolute disaster ”

    THe general opinion seems to be that it’s a War Crime-which is a few degrees worse than ” a disaster”.

  39. “Very sad to see posters on here and the media in general worrying more about how it will alter leader perceptions and poll ratings.”

    Ya think it might be because this is predominantly a polling site ?

    Just a thought…..

  40. Are the Americans still calling French Fries, Freedom Fries after they fell out with the French a while back?

  41. OLDNAT

    lol

    I think it was the French stance over Iraq at the UN-but I may be wrong.

  42. Colin
    Fair enough, I just find the turn of events not easily explained as a strategic action and perhaps there was no strategy but just blind hatred at work. It has been seen before of course.

    The OP who complained that we have lost sight of the horror of what happened does not know us well. We discuss political opinion forming here (I thought). I know of no one on this site who does not have humanity as a guiding principle – we just don’t express it in every post, no need.

  43. Colin….apologies for not upping my outrage to” War Crime”….Am I ok with “pure evil” or is there a few more descriptive notches I need to go up…..Christ on a Bike!!!

  44. @Colin

    There isn’t any real detail of culpability in Kerry’s report. Hw refers to “100s of publically available videos” supporting his claims. But none are enclosed. No pictures, no videos. Just a map and 1,500 words.

    And no justification for a tenfold increase in the casualty figures.

    Reminds me of Colin Powell’s PP presentation on Iraq.

  45. @Old Nat

    I think Kerry is above that. I haven’t heard talk of Freedom Muffins as yet.

  46. @TURK

    “I suspect there’s a few troubled souls amongst the Tories dissenters right now.”

    The great majority of the Tory dissenters I saw in the debate yesterday were opposed to military action fullstop; they were not doubting that Assad carried out a chemical attack. The argument was what military action exactly, what good would it do, what was the end game, etc. etc., I can’t see that John Kerry’s speech would make any difference at all to them.

  47. BILLY BOB

    Give them time! :-)

    RED RAG

    In the downmarket places i eat at, they’re usually just called “Fries”.

  48. Colin

    I suspect it’s the old story of intelligence agencies not willing to share information, which is somewhat understandable as any leak could compromise operatives on the ground.
    It would seem Obama has only released this information because of the UK’s no vote in order to get the American public on side.

    Unfortunately just because countries are allies doesn’t always mean there’s joined up thinking this is the trouble of not taking a step back before you act to make sure you have all the facts..

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