I’m on leave this week so don’t expect much posting. For the record Monday’s twice-weekly Populus poll had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 11%, while YouGov’s daily poll for Tuesday morning had figures of CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%. Both are pretty much in line with the two companies’ recent averages.

Meanwhile there was also some ICM polling in the Daily Mirror this morning – no voting intention, just some questions on attitudes towards Ed Miliband – the headline finding was that 34% of 2010 Labour voters thought Miliband should not lead Labour into the next election, 46% thought that he should. The rest of the survey asked which leader people preferred on various measures, finding the leaders usual strengths and weaknesses – Cameron leads Miliband on making tough decisions and running the economy, Miliband is seen as more in touch, honest and interested in helping the poorest. Clegg doesn’t do well anywhere.

(For the avoidance of doubt given how late I’m posting today, those YouGov figures are the Monday night/Tuesday morning figures, NOT a sneak preview of Tuesday night/Wednesday morning figures!)


589 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and ICM polling”

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  1. Is this a Norwegian thread?

  2. The Labour bracket not breached again.

    RIN – What’s Norwegian for steady as you go?

  3. Con score is all over the place between pollsters, but they do seem to be slightly down on YouGov from 33% over the past couple of weeks. We’ll have to see if this continues. Otherwise, pretty dull stuff and we’ve even covered the party leader questions on the old thread. Ho hum.

  4. I wonder weather this story Alex posted on the previous thread will effect V1 if it gets some air time.

    I have picked up one story of minor interest, with the Telegraph reporting £1.7B of bonus payments have been delayed in order to avoid the 50% top rate tax.

  5. @rogerrebel

    V4 surely?

  6. For all the negative coverage Milliband is suffering, not really damaging Labour too much – almost as if Ed has a strategy of lowering expectations ahead of his conference speech so it gets a bigger reaction if he delivers a good one.
    Cant be bothered looking it up – but were his ratings on the slide this time last year? And did his “unscripted” speech give him and Labour much of a bounce?

  7. Red rag

    I can’t think of the corresponding phrase. I can speak, read and think both languages but I’m really crap at translating, but if I ain’t careful I tend to mix the two especially if I’m speaking english

  8. They went up slightly – seems the Lab average pre-conference was 41/42, and a month later it was 42-44. These were the bygone days where Con were regularly on 34/35 and UKIP were still included in ‘Others’.

  9. @Red Rag
    “What’s Norwegian for steady as you go?”
    ———————
    According to Google’s translate tool tiz something like:-

    stødig som du går

  10. Cheers mrnameless

  11. Oswald

    Yeah but I’ve never heard a Norwegian say that, the problem with literal translation like that is it always sounds silly

  12. In Swedish it would be “ingenting förändras” – which means “nothing changes/nothing is changing”.

  13. @ R i N
    I have learned a very few words by watching BBC4 on Saturday evenings. We have had a run of Swedish, Danish and Norwegian progs with English subtitles. Fascinating viewing, even though I am am very slow at picking up the lingo.

  14. Corkscrew,he was certainly getting a lot of negative coverage from the usual
    Suspects.His speech may not have raised his ratings much,but it did shut up
    The media onslaught.

  15. Richard: Agree. Fluent in French and English here but find translation incredibly hard.

  16. It was a very good speech, it probably helped that he did it off the cuff (or at least without notes).

  17. @Red Rag – “I wonder weather this story Alex posted on the previous thread will effect V1 if it gets some air time.”

    First of all, it’s Alec, and the answer is no.

    Nothing I post about ever affects VI, and I’m never quite sure if that’s a reflection of how dull my posts are, or how unconcerned voters are.

  18. Alec

    Both probably (yellow Blobby thing)

  19. First of all it’s rogerrebel and I think your posts excellent

  20. RIN – I have stayed at three places in Norway Rong,Bergen and Stavanger. Was a long time a go but I thought the country was beautiful. I have always said I would go back.

  21. @Alec – I think that was ROGERREBEL and I don’t think your posts are dull.

  22. And in the same vein, this stuff about Section 7 detentions is very interesting.

    The reactions today from quite a cross section of MPs, including some Tories, shows that there is deep disquiet over the use of anti terrorism powers by the police. It’s one of those genuinely difficult issues. The security services have to define what constitutes a threat, and act accordingly, but by the very nature of the threats, the level of openness is severely curtailed, and therefore the democratic oversight that is possible.

    Unfortunately, police and security services have a bad record at making the wrong calls in this area, and the suspicion here remains that anti terror laws are being invoked to prevent news of breaches of personal privacy by unsanctioned or uncontrolled state action.

    I’m not sure about the politics of this. David Davis will not be enamoured with Cameron, but then what’s new? Other Tories are worried, but I doubt they will go to the barricades against their own team. Labour equally is in a bind, as they made the law in the first place. Lib Dems will be upset, but aren’t they always?

    The bottom line is that this demonstrates the real problem we have in dealing with risk, and how far we trust those who both define those risks and then act to protect us. We’ve had tourists arrested and their camera’s checked for taking photograph’s of Big Ben, and I get the feeling that the recent terror attacks have been used to draft laws that the security services find very much to their liking, but will ultimately prove counter productive in the protection of citizens.

    But it won’t affect VI.

  23. Sorry RogerR – got names mixed up.

  24. Red rag

    Well you didn’t go to the best part, that’s an hour inland from where I am, look for Ålesund on Google maps and go east south-east about 50 clicks, that’s the best part

  25. No over excited tweet from Sunpolitics on the Yougov figures = Labour bracket not breached.

  26. I’m keenly awaiting the new poll tomorrow, the media is concentrating on the splits in the right blog and I’m wondering if there will be evidence of that in polling tomorrow

  27. Alec

    There has been quite a lot of attention on that story here, it seems that it has implications for press freedom generally

  28. RIN – It’s funny you mentioned Google. I checked for Rong on Google maps the other week and looking all over the village, it has hardly changed a bit since I visited it 28 years ago. It says it is only 8 hours drive from Rong so if I ever do go over there I will pop up and meet you.

  29. Peter Cairns (fpt but relevant)

    [..] I think Labour have till their conference to put the “Ed the Duck” story to bed…

    The options are:

    A) Dump him, even if it is unfair kill the leadership issue by killing the leader. B Nasty but necessary but you better have a popular replacement who can deliver ready in the wings.

    B) back him regardless and shout down or sack everyone and anyone who breathes a word about it from conference to the election. Letting it be said that Ed’s weak and getting off with it reinforces the narrative.

    C) Create an artificial battle, say with the Unions , that he can win to look strong and decisive. Again he has to win and it mustn’t look phoney!

    Unfortunately none of these will work:

    (A) There’s nothing to say that any new leader wouldn’t be treated in exactly the same way. You only have to look at what happened to the Lib Dems. Endless undermining of Kennedy by the media, accompanied by praise of Campbell. Replacement. And then what happens?

    Actually I think this and getting rid of IDS has led the Press in particular to become giddy with power and treat every opposition leader as the next target. Miliband has had it particularly hard because he was not the media’s favourite, few of them predicted his success, and he failed to go to public school with them. But a more ‘acceptable’ leader would find the media pack turning on him or her almost as quickly.

    (B) It doesn’t matter what the Shadow Cabinet or leading Labour MPs or his next-door-neighbour’s granny say, the media are going to twist, selectively quote and in extremis invent what they would have liked them to say. Censuring them will only be treated as Labour’s civil war. And universal silence will not be treated any better as we have seen this Summer.

    (C) Well they’ve tried that and no one really cared, if anything it was the start of a slight drop in ratings. The trouble with this sort of fake battle is that only your enemies are impressed and they’re not going to vote for you.

    And while you may think that your supporters can go anywhere else, but they may decide that one of the places they’re not going to go is the polling booth. It’s not just the ‘left’ who complain about politicians all being the same, many undecided and UKIP-voters are too. Perpetually trying to pretend you are Tory-lite will not convince people to choose you.

    The only plausible, though not easy, tactic to follow is attack. (D) – which is curling up into a ball and hoping the bullies will stop kicking you – doesn’t seem to work either. Instead Labour needs to attack the government on its long list of vulnerabilities and it need to attack the media over unfair coverage and a biased news agenda. They need to get their facts right when they do it and they need to keep on doing it rather than launching a campaign and then sitting back with a satisfied look on their faces.

    They also need to be much less worried about accusations of ‘class war’ whenever they say something that might possibly disadvantage the rich and powerful. Apart from the obvious retort that the whingers seem quite happy with a class war going the other way, there is the lesson of the polls. The turnaround to start giving Labour regular leads happened in March 2012 as it became clear that Osbourne would cut the tax rate for high earners[1]. Some people were clearly more in it together than others.

    Of course the media assured us all that the Budget’s unpopularity was entirely due to some obscure change in the VAT regulations for certain types of takeaway food (that’s the sort of thing these plebs care about isn’t it?). But the tax rate was the killer and Labour’s failure to capitalise on this and continue to raise related issues has been one of the reasons for the rise of UKIP.

    [1] As Alec confirms and as some of us suspected at the time, this had to be done then, otherwise earnings on the rich could not be transferred between tax years to avoid the 50% and the rate increase would be seen to increase revenue. To get the reduction through that year, the Tories were even prepared to compromise with the Lib Dems and set the rate at 45% rather than 40%.

  30. Norway update?

  31. @RiN

    To answer your 10.09 question, on the evidence so far, Yes.

  32. “We’ve had tourists arrested and their camera’s checked for taking photograph’s of Big Ben, ”
    —————————-
    Maybe the ones to watch are the tourists taking pics of platform 9 and 3 quarters at Kings Cross.

    http://golondon.about.com/od/londonpictures/ig/Less-seen-Sights/Platform-9-3-4.htm

  33. Don’t really know enough about Schedule 7, but surely at a time of still pretty significant international terrorism, states do need some powers to stop people where there is a potential National Security issue?

  34. Rich

    Is it really a time of pretty significant international terrorism? It might seem that way from how the media talks about it and the constant govt alerts but the reality is that the vast majority of terrorism is domestic and even including all terrorism(leaving out American drone attacks, invasions, coups etc) it’s significance is almost nil, the common ful is a much bigger killer, car accidents and train crashes are just as sudden and unexpected, the truth is that the fear of terrorism is more damaging than the terrorism itself

  35. Tweet

  36. @ RiN

    The polls in Norway seem to be rather volatile. It seems that the whole thing depends on the 4% threshold.

    PS. Considering the history of NCP, the policies are rather boring and unappealing (even though I know some people from them and they are rather different), so they will get less than 1%….

  37. “Tweet”

    Is that an instruction or mere wishful thinking ?

  38. Sine Nomine

    Tweet

    Good post I agree with you

  39. @ Sine Nomine

    Tweet
    ———-
    Twit

  40. Laszlo

    Yes, the polls are volatile, one problem is that some of the pollsters are weighing to the result/recalled vote in 2009 and some are using the local elections in 2011, that seems to make 5 points difference in the conservative lead over labour but looking an the average the polls are tightening at a snail’s pace, as one analyst on tv said, “if the red/green keep on closing the gap like this, they will be in the lead by next summer” so far the really big news is the emergence of the greens from nowhere to being in with a chance of significant representation. The 4% threshold is absolutely critical, less so this time than usually but in 2009 the liberals missed the threshold by 0.1 and it cost them 6 seats from 8 seats to 2 it also meant that even though the right side had more votes in total the red/green had a slim majority of the seats

  41. A question springs to mind: who’s performing better in terms of VI?

    I don’t mean in absolute terms, with Labour still ahead. I mean in terms of dealing with the hand they were dealt.

    One might say Labour have done well to bounce back after the election polling. Tories might counter that they’ve done well not to fall off the VI cliff given unpopular cuts etc.

    Or maybe Ukip? Maybe Libdems are doing brilliantly to have any votes at all…

  42. CARFREW

    Maybe Libdems are doing brilliantly to have any votes at all…

    Someone in Bournemouth might well agree with you!

  43. @Rich

    Don’t really know enough about Schedule 7, but surely at a time of still pretty significant international terrorism, states do need some powers to stop people where there is a potential National Security issue?

    I think that the actions against Edward Snowden and the partner of the Guardian Journalist are nothing to do with dealing with terrorism, but simply the security services acting vindictively against those who have embarrassed them.

    The security apparatus and government have a motive to keep us in a heightened state of fear, and that motive is nothing to do with keeping us safe. A population in fear accepts more government control and is more happy to hand civil liberties back.

    I do not like it one bit.

  44. YG: Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -29

    Lead same as yesterday at Lab +7

  45. “In the interview Mr Greenwald insisted that “nothing has been revealed” about alleged state spying that “terrorists don’t already know”, and that the information Mr Miranda was carrying would be “impossible” to access because is so well encrypted that “even the most advanced intelligence services” would be unable to decipher it.”

    Politics Home.

    So we have to take Mr Greenwald’s word for it-a man who wasn’t carrying the data & wasn’t detained.

    Hmmmm

  46. Labour pretty solid, I must say.

  47. ALEC

    I don’t know whether the appropriate legal powers were used or not.

    But I think this stinks “journalistically”:-

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/louisemensch/100231784/david-miranda-detention-why-i-believe-the-guardian-has-smeared-britains-security-services/

    And the irony of Greenwald & Miranda being able to arrange the extraction of classified intelligence from Snowden , because the latter is in a safe haven granted by a homophobic regime, does not escape me.

  48. I think that the negative press on Miliband isn’t changing Labour lead ’cause as many dislike Cameron and Clegg. Although people think Deficit reduction is necessary they think it is being done unfairly. Also, only 12% say DC is honest:> untrustworthy.

  49. @COLIN

    “PLeased the Japan stuff was of some interest to you-the more I read of UK’s ongoing Monetary Policy, the more attractive a place Japan seems.
    RE Investment-CBI released some survey data indicating more positive plans for industrial investment next year.
    RE personal debt-I don’t think the data shows an increase in unsecured borrowing.”

    ———

    Sounds positive on the investment thing. Maybe you’re right about the personal debt: they claimed it in the article but I don’t know about the data. Was jus’ wondering…

  50. @STEVE

    “More than half of Britain’s top 100 journalists were educated at private schools, a proportion that has increased over the past two decades, according to research.”

    ———–

    Well, the preponderence of private schools in this regard is to be expected, given how many are Oxbridge, plus the rise of internships and stuff, favouring the wealthy who can also afford to send their kids private. In some careers, like politics and journalism, it’s a small church, and connections are more important, so a particular school can come to dominate via the old school tie thing.

    In many other careers, the old school tie barely applies. They don’t have the numbers. Do the maths. At my school, once you’d stripped out those who lived abroad and flew home for the hols, and those who joined the forces, in terms of the wider workforce and professions, you’d have less than one hundred leaving school each year.

    Some of these would move abroad or join bands and stuff. But even at a hundred, it’s not a lot to spread over the professions and establish an hegemony. I’ve never bumped into anyone from my school professionally, or even socially outside of explicit occasions to reunite with old schoolmates.

    Oxford, is different, they churn out thousands of those each year, and I’ve met a few along the way. Wouldn’t say they necessarily give much of a leg up though. Some careers are driven more by connections than others, and Oxbridge peeps can be rather more competitive than your average public schoolie. Being all that competitive at public school was a bit of a no-no when living in such proximity. Too disruptive. Being labelled a “try-hard” was something to avoid…

    There’s an issue, but unpicking it can be complicated. You would expect private schools to punch above their weight, like grammars, because they select. There are some privileged advantages, like resourcing, but that’s not critical in many subjects, then you have non-elitist advantages due to method, e.g. choosing to employ many staff who are Oxbridge (where in the state sector they didn’t seem to care so often about your degree), attitudes to behaviour, reducing distractions etc.

    You have some more subtle advantages: small class sizes – possible because of the wealth, therefore elitist – not only allow more homework, but much more fine-grained streaming, when you can have much narrower bands with a dozen pupils in each.

    I read an article recently from 2008 where Cambridge had reduced public school admissions down to nearly 40%. They had also only just abolished the requirement for a foreign language that numerous state school pupils don’t have, which is hardly the Public Schools’ fault. In the end, some of the privileged advantages are obvious, some overblown, some are simply down to approach rather than privilege, and meanwhile there are hidden elitist advantages that you might not expect (except in Canada, obviously, where private schools are so wonderfully egalitarian they probably insist on bigger class sizes than in state schools…)

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