The monthly online poll for ComRes in the Indy on Sunday has topline figures of CON 28%(nc), LAB 37%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 19%(+1). Clearly there is no significant change from last month (although that itself is interesting – the UKIP score in this poll matches the party’s high with ComRes, so the decline we’ve seen from UKIP’s post local election high from almost every other company is absent here).

The rest of the poll has lots of my beloved agree/disagree statements, but of particular interest is one that was a repeat from way back in 2009. Back then 58% of people agreed that citizens of other EU countries should have the right to live and work in the UK, four years on, with immigration within the European Union having become more of an issue, that figure has dropped to 23%, with 57% disagreeing that EU citizens should have the right to live and work here.


216 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 28, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 19”

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  1. On EU free movement of labour, somebody should have told voters back in the 70s!

  2. Is this a Norwegian thread?

  3. The Conservatives no matter what they say or who they hire cannot break the Labour 36-40% bracket. As I posted a few weeks back how long is going to take the Conservative leadership to realise repeating Ed is crap a million times is not going to move the Lib-Dem crossovers to Labour from 2101 who are not limpet like with Labour. They need to change tack as the people who they need to cross to them are now either not hearing them, fed up with hearing it or are not interested in what they keep repeating.

  4. That should read 2010 ( I do not have a tardis) and “are limpet like”.

  5. Nice Web Site Red Rag-balanced, impartial and…………..Red.

    Hope you don’t mind me asking -do you have red trousers too?

  6. The Conservatives are said to need UKIP down to 5%, looks a diificult task looking at this poll, as UKIP haven`t had much chance of publicy.
    On the other hand, greater scrutiny and threats of letting Labour in closer to the GE, might achieve the desired outcome.

  7. I should amplify my opening post with the comment that others often say ‘we signed up to the EEC, not the EU’. The free movement of labour was a founding principle even then.

    Free movement of capital, services and people, as well as labour was there right from the start.

    I suppose someone clever should have added ‘only when it suits us’.

  8. Interesting to note that the Comres result gives a seat distribution of
    Con 223 Lab 372 LD 28 with others actually losing 2 at 9.

    An overall majority of 94.

    Surely strategists have to start really thinking about whether this ‘I don’t like Ed’ nonsense is worth a candle?

  9. ElectoralCalculus gives a 377 for Lab, a majority of 104. UKIP have a polling range, unusually, of 10% between polling companies, which makes them a huge unknown quantity.

    If UKIP are high, that could be seen as causing massive damage to the Tories, or as being a big pool for the Tories to tap into. If they’re low, it’s either the Tories having barely any votes to reclaim to get over 37%, or an opportunity to reunite the right-wing vote.

    I’d quite like to see what support would be for a UKIP-Con pact. I would assume it would be less than the sum of the two parties, since liberal Tories would go to the LDs and ex-Lab Kippers would return home or not vote. Still, food for thought.

  10. I like Ed! I don’t see a problem ,only shallow people make fun of others and their perceived weakness.The Ed is crap line just emphasises how stupid the Tory attack is ,if he is so crap why does it need the Tories to say this millions of times a week.i sense fear is creeping in and they’re are panicking.

  11. Ah please excuse the extra “are” at the end.

  12. @ Colin

    Red Rag has a point that the Tories playing the man (Ed M) will probably have no impact on LD/Labour votes as a block of votes. If you are a liberal minded left of centre voter like myself, you would alternate your vote between LD’s and Labour in any seat as a tactical anti-Tory vote. There are probably millions with the same point of view as myself . Would right of centre voters who have voted LD in the past, change to backing the Tories based on negative campaigning ? Unlikely in my view.

    It should worry you that the Tories have hired Lynton Crosby who is not really tuned to UK politics and who may steer them in the wrong direction. They have also hired the statistician from Obamas campaign, who may not understand the fickle nature of the UK electorate.

    Somehow the Tories have got to achieve more than 35% of the vote in 2015, which is going to be very difficult, due to the tactical voting mentioned and also the leakage of votes to UKIP. As Red Rag suggests Labours polling looks to be pretty solid at 36% plus and therefore in my view the Tories need to run a positive campaign to encourage people to move from the other parties.

  13. Good point. Ed may be unpopular, but he’s not at Alton Towers wearing a baseball cap with his name on it, calling himself The Quiet Man or looking like a vampire.

  14. Tthe Tories have a perfect right in attacking EM if you can undermine the public’s confidence in a leader you can draw votes away from the party as well at the GE, just because it’s only had a limited effect perhaps a couple of percentage points so far, doesn’t mean it’s not a good tactic.

    Rather like Labours tactic of Posh Boy’s, public school,plebs and Bullingdon club is used by them to undermine DC.

    Of course all parties will try and run a positive campaign but that want stop personal attacks on leaders.

    Both parties realise the next GE is going to be close even if some on here can’t see it, and both parties will indulge in personal attacks so lets not pretend this is all one sided against EM.

    In any case it hardly the Tories fault that EM hasn’t gelled with voters he’s had over three years to make a impact, if he thinks being popular matters, which maybe he doesn’t, he’s the one who needs to change tact not the Tories.

  15. R HUCKLE

    Thanks

    It doesn’t worry me that that the Tories have hired Lynton Crosby . FRom what I have read it seems like a good idea.

    I hope the campaign is not directed personally at EM-but is directed at his policies / lack of policies , and Labour’s record in office.

    I really have no idea whether all this stuff about the impossibility of Cons getting more than x y or z % has any validity or not .

    We will find out what it is possible for all the parties to get when the voters go to the ballot boxes.

  16. TURK

    @”Of course all parties will try and run a positive campaign but that want stop personal attacks on leaders.”

    Of course you are correct -and that goes for Labour too.

    Your observations about the attacks on DC based on his background & schooling are a good example.

  17. Anyone ready for more news from the Norwegian election campaign??

  18. I think the attacks on Cameron for his schooling, while not something in his control, are at least somewhat relevant because they’re to do with the idea that he doesn’t understand the average person.

    Of course, it could be argues that Miliband hasn’t exactly had a hard life either, but attacking him because he looks weird is much less to do with politics!

  19. RiN

    Me! Me! Me!

  20. MR NAMELESS-as a matter of interest -which Conservative politician attacked EM “for looking weird”

  21. RICHARD

    I like the revelation that Stoltenberg’s taxi-driving tour, involved passengers being paid NOK 500 each (some USD 84.6/EUR 63.4/GBP 54) for the ride.

  22. Fair point – The Labour MPs ought to be more restrained. That said, the Conservative press has been pretty nasty about EM, so maybe they can calm down too.

  23. I suspect it might not be a brilliant sign for the Conservatives that the readers of ConservativeHome are so into UKIP… look at these comments: http://conservativehome.blogs.com/localgovernment/2013/08/council-by-election-results-from-yesterday.html

  24. MR NAMELESS

    WE were discussing political campaigning-ie by politicians.

    No point in shifting the playing field to include the Press-that’s something else entirely & nothing to do with the political parties.

  25. Ah okay, I misunderstood. Apologies.

  26. @RHuckle

    I actually don’t think they have hired “the statistician” from the Obama campaign. The person they’ve hired may have agreed to the approach, but he wasn’t the Chief Scientist who developed and pushed the approach. Having talked to Riyad Ghani (who was the Chief scientist) I think that the model that worked for the US would have some major issues in the UK. However there probably is an opportunity for the first UK party who have the resources to do this. Unfortunately it will probably only be relevant in very close races.

  27. Richard,

    Sure. You are good at being brief and to the point.

    As for Labour, 36-40% is about right. I’d be surprised if they did was well as 40% (it would take a very good campaign to win 11%) and surprised if they did as badly as 34% given the collapse of the Lib Dems.

  28. Colin

    Yeah they all got a free taxi ride which is worth at least 20 quid and a few of them were paid 50 quid which in Norwegian terms is nothing, I guess his staff wanted to make sure he had a constant supply of passengers but they couldn’t have been actors not when they are getting paid so little. But what I found really funny is that one woman was talking about suing Jen’s because he’s such a bad driver and he put his foot on the brake pedal by mistake and it aggravated her bad back, lol

  29. I am starting to see the “Ed is crap” narrative of another example of rhetoric splattering against the wall of reality and sliding off. Iain Duncan Smith insists his belief in the effects of a policy supercedes the evidence to the contrary. Here we are told repeatedly of how woeful Ed is – by both the Tories and Continuity New Labour – and yet the Labour poll score refuses to budge.

    I don’t doubt the cincerity of opinion of the people who keep stating this, yet it appears not to ring true with the wider voting public. Sadly for Cameroon’s and Blairites the heartfelt opinion of Tory voters isn’t the issue that will settle the issue, its the opinions of left leaning swing and former voters who, judging by the polls, appear to disagree.

    You have to ask at which point this particular narrative loses steam. Thursday’s Evening Standard shrieked “bad news for Ed” in its reporting of a poll giving Labour a majority of just over 100…..

  30. So, it looks like the conservatives were rattled by the performance of Jens in the leadership debate or maybe they are just getting cocky but they have said that they would have handled the anders brevik attack better, even implying that it wouldn’t have happened if Erna had been PM. You will remember that brevity shot dead a lot of young people who’s sole transgression was being members of the youth wing of the Labour party. To be fair the report into the incident was critical of the govt handling of it, but many observers are wondering WTF the conservatives are doing taking such a risk using a national tragedy in the campaign when they are so far in front

  31. Cocky

  32. Sorry about that, I have a post in mod and thought cocky might have been the offender

  33. AW

    If you are about, please release my post

  34. All this EM bashing by the right wing press may backfire on them when the campaigning for the 2015 general election actually starts. They have tried to convince the electorate that EM is some sort of nerd. When the party leader’s televised debate takes place the electorate have the chance to see the real EM – this can only work in his favour. If his performance is anything like how he regularly performs at PM questions I think to will get a massive boost.

  35. I don’t see what’s wrong with a nerd prime minister anyway. I’m sick of politicians like Blair and Cameron and Clegg who, if I’d been at school with them, would almost certainly have been the cool kids who bullied me, while me and Ed Miliband and Lembit Opik sat in the corner eating our sandwiches.

    Sorry if I’ve painted a weird mental picture there.

  36. Nameless

    Maybe ed is too nice to be PM? Lol

  37. So, it looks like the conservatives were unnerved by the performance of Jens in the leadership debate or maybe they are just getting cocky but they have said that they would have handled the anders brevik attack better, even implying that it wouldn’t have happened if Erna had been PM. You will remember that brevik killed a lot of young people just because they were members of the youth wing of the Labour party. To be fair the report into the incident was critical of the govt handling of it, but many observers are wondering why the conservatives are doing taking such a risk using a national tragedy in the campaign when they are so far in front

  38. I have noticed that leaders who seem like they’d be nice guys in person – David Steel, Neil Kinnock, John Major – don’t tend to do that well at the polls (Major ’92 excepted). Then again, those three all had to deal with massive disunity so that probably didn’t help.

  39. Brevik

  40. Damm, I can’t find the word that put me in mod

  41. Killed

  42. Not that one either

  43. Interesting to see Australia Labor Government – in election mode – is saying stop messing around with silly (or deranged – depends on your view) alternative medicine –

    ‘Labor to cut tax benefit for parents who don’t immunise children

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-18/labor-to-cut-tax-benefit-for-parent-who-don27t-immunise-childr/4894390

  44. They are correct to do so. I wish our government would stop messing about with homeopathy!

  45. Jack

    I’m an idiot, explain to me how children that have not been vaccinated pose a danger to children that have been? I thought the whole point of immunisation was that you became immune. Therefore these children would only be a risk to themselves or other children who haven’t been immunized

  46. The more children are vaccinated, the better. One child in a class of twenty not being vaccinated is probably fine, because of the herd immunity provided as part of the group. Two or more though can pass disease to one another as well as taking diseases home to others.

    It’s the same principle as universal healthcare – the more people have it, the less each individual should it.

  47. Colin,you asked which conservative politician had described EM as looking weird.None other than David Cameron when he described Ed as Wallace or was it Grommet,I have no idea which is which at PMQs.As they are plastic
    Puppets I guess that qualifies as weird.

  48. Should need it, that should read.

  49. I think Ed Miliband should do better than Brown – and also has an extra chunk of support from the LD’s who didn’t like the coalition and show little sign of changing their minds (say at least 6%, assuming some go back)

    Labour are going to be quite a bit tougher to beat next time than in 2010, quite probably getting no less than 35%, Cons are going to need quite a bit more than 36% to win – that means getting a lot of UKIP voters back.

    EM is no Blair and thus there is no expectation of a landslide. But those are not necessarily good things.

  50. Well I’m not convinced by the arguments of the anti vaccination crowd, but I don’t like the idea of financial penalties to force parents to do something which they believe will harm their children. I should mention that I noticed a change in my son after he had the mmr injection but I put it down to him losing faith in his parents after we allowed the doctor to jab a big needle in him, but he has a mild form of autism called aspergers. Now I ain’t saying it was because of the mmr but I do wonder

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