The Friday edition of Populus’s twice-weekly poll is out today and has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. The 36% for the Tories is higher than most other polls have shown the Conservatives, though that’s probably partially a result of Populus tending to show relatively low scores for both the Lib Dems and UKIP (now that Populus have rejoined the regular polling rota I should get round to doing an updated post on the various companies’ house effects). Full Populus tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. Full tabs are here.


151 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. *Lab>Con swing*

  2. @ Howard

    Dan Hodges is an (erstwhile?) Labour supporter who used to write for the New Statesman, Labour Uncut & his own blog; he’s now writing for the Daily Telegraph.

    Why does he get so much attention? His mother is the passionate, left-winger & Oscar winning actor: Glenda Jackson; & she is currently a Labour MP.

  3. Peter

    I wasn’t asking about an independent Scotland being a backdoor into the rUK but as being a door out of it

  4. Colin fantastic achievement by Mo in both races.

    Lots of twitchy Labour supporters posting today you probably noticed the rise in how the Tories can’t win posts if there’s a close poll even though it doesn’t change the UKPR at least till the next update,but always good for a laugh reading them.

  5. Thank god I was wrong about Dan Hodges, mind you I did think he was too ugly(in a bover boy way) to be a MP

  6. Richard,

    I’ve always taken the view that there might be a fair number of people on both sides of the border who consider what side the want to be on between 2014-16.

    There may well be unionists who move South to remain in Britain and even some English who although in no way anti Scottish feel that it would be better in Britain.

    Equally I suspect there will be Scots in England who want to move home but also a lot of people on the left who may feel that a Scandinavian model to the North looks preferable to an Anglo-American one in the South.

    It is hard to call, I don’t think it will be huge numbers either way but I suspect a larger percentage in Scotland will move south than those moving north, but as there are ten times as many people in England it may well be that Scotland is the net beneficiary.

    It is one of Rumsfeld’s unknown unknowns!

    Peter.

  7. Peter

    It’s somewhat appealing to me, I could live in a civilized country but still be in reasonable driving distance of my family in england

  8. @ Richard,

    Some of that is him getting his eye gouged out by neonazis, so we shouldn’t fault him for it. His views, OTOH…

  9. @Peter Cairns

    I wish they would pass legislation to make anyone who wants to move in either direction do so before Autumn 2014.

    Sort the loyal folk (on both sides) from the gamblers and hopers. :)

  10. Amber
    I suppose he is more ‘up front’, but essentially, it seems to me that he is making the journey that the Atlee family already made, which Billy Bob and I discussed earlier.

    I suppose she didn’t send him to independent school by any chance? I googled but failed to discover that. Even if he wasn’t so sent, his children probably will (if there are going to be any) and gradually, as sure as night follows day, they will end up Tory.

    It’s the way of the world.

  11. I also didn’t know about his great misfortune. These real things can have a big effect on people, as I am myself aware.

  12. Statgeek,

    “I wish they would pass legislation to make anyone who wants to move in either direction do so before Autumn 2014”

    An artificially short unnecessary deadline forcing people to choose between sides of an open border at a time of negative equity, housing shortage, falling incomes and scares mortgages?

    You don’t really do policy formation do you!

    Peter.

  13. @PC

    It was tongue in cheek. :-p

  14. Statgeek,

    I apologies, I too was being tongue in cheek but I do tend to take this independence thing a bit seriously, probably too seriously.

    Peter.

  15. PC

    “It is hard to call, I don’t think it will be huge numbers either way but I suspect a larger percentage in Scotland will move south than those moving north, but as there are ten times as many people in England it may well be that Scotland is the net beneficiary”
    _____

    The Scots already are net beneficiary’s, they have me ;)

    If we and I mean we as I will be voting in 2014 do vote Yes then I want negotiations on Berwick Upon Tweed and a few other bit n bobs kicking around the borders. (kidding)

  16. statgeek

    @PC

    It was tongue in cheek
    ____________

    Aye we ken

    http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0zo9rONQu1rrbecao1_500.jpg

  17. @AC

    Free city, with dual sovereignty. With tax breaks for cheap fags and booze. ^^

  18. STATGEEK

    That’s my thinking that’s my thinking!!

    We could turn Berwick Upon Tweed into the Hong Kong of the north.

  19. TURK

    Absolutely-I love the way he runs for his adopted country with such pride-and how much his family means to him.

    Yes-some chucklesome stuff today here alright.

    I’m still getting my head around the red trouser business.
    Not only did someone actually take a photo of Oliver Letwins’ trousers……he knew the brand being worn !

    And Martyn was at such evident pains to define the precise social class ( “upper(upper-middle?) class “) associated with these trousers.

    Unbelievable-still it beats the Scottish Educational Statutes hands down.

    There’s nowt so queer as folk Turk.

    Hoping for that all square poll to appear.

  20. TURK
    Absolutely-I love the way he runs for his adopted country with such pride-and how much his family means to him.

    Yes-some chucklesome stuff today here alright !

  21. PC

    LOL well It’s a start I suppose.

  22. Two good polls for Tories!

  23. @spearmint

    There will be cases where a new 2010 Con MP has made a good impression on constituents… but you make an interesting point I think. It’s one that wasn’t raised here:

    h
    ttp://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/10/08/why-incumbency-advantage-may-decide-the-next-election/

    (There is another link to an article which mentions the scale by which Tories elected for the first time in 2005 increased their majorities over Labour 2010 – scary, but maybe not so likely in 2015).

    Tory vote holding up will not be sufficient if, as you argue, the incumbency effect might not apply to LD defectors (at least not in the same way that it’s assumed to apply to the Lab/Con churn). That said, I do find it hard to take anything for granted when it comes to 2010 LDs.

  24. The red green govt are still a long way behind in the polls but keep bringing up the subject of exactly what kind of govt we can expect in their place, the 4 parties on the right can only.agree on one thing, that the red green govt must go but theystill ddon’t have a clearly defined govt alternative, this has been the problem with the right ever since the Ukip style party became amajor player. The distance between the two ccentrist parties and the Ukip style party is too large. I’m not sure if at this stage it’s really going to make much difference but already it looks like cracks are appearing on the right, but I’m not sure at this late stage that a swing back to the govt will happen that is big enough to save them being down 60 40 is a he’ll of a climb. Of course any reduction of the lead will make post election govt forming more chaotic

  25. Rin

    Are any of them suggesting a change in the proportion of the Pension Fund used for current expenditure – as opposed to keeping it for future generations?

  26. I wonder how it would affect VI that apparently the UK asked for international arbitration about (the crossing to) Gibraltar.

    This perhaps can be held in Munich and the British PM could give a speech at the airport with a piece of paper in this hand..

    Apart from the previous paragraph I think it is quite interesting. ANECDOTAL: I talked to a Northerner who said that he thought the UK has enough money laundering places, so it doesn’t need Gibraltar. I also talked to a Southerner who kind of came across as a hawk, though he ruled out the use of Trident.

    We know the effect of the Malvinas on voting and also how the EU affects it, but do these small, irrelevant diplomatic fingers wrestling have a long term effect (can it enduringly improve DC’s approval?)

  27. LASZLO

    It would be much more effective if Cameron could flourish a severed ear in front of Parliament.

    We could then replicate the 1739 conflict.

  28. Colin

    Time I was off to bed are friends from the left have drifted into a strange world of red trousers waving pieces of paper and severed ears, god knows what will happen if we get that evens.

  29. This perhaps can be held in Munich and the British PM could give a speech at the airport with a piece of paper in this hand..

    -Yes indeed let’s irritate the country where over a Million British people work or have retired to and go into bat for a town of 30,000 who are 100% British provided it doesn’t involve paying taxes.

    The Gibraltar authorities caused this problem by building an artificial reef in disputed waters and the Spanish are right there is a massive smuggling problem off of the rock.

    After Retiring from The Met Police I lived 30 miles down the coast from Gib and while it was enjoyable to visit it always struck me as in a time warp from the 1950’s With a whole set of expats bemoaning the Spanish while being only too happy to benefit from their status as One of Mainland Europe’s biggest tax havens and bookmakers

  30. “It is one of Rumsfeld’s unknown unknowns!”

    Sorry Peter, it’s one of his known unknowns. That’s why you’re analysing it.

    The unknown unknowns are the thing so off-the-wall nobody has advance anticipation of the issue itself. For example, from the vantage of 2006 the credit crunch and subsequent slump were indeed unknown unknowns (except to a tiny minority of Cassandras).

    Population movements consequent on the referendum are indeed unknown, but the issue itself is clear as day. In 2008, before the SNP got a hand on the levers of power – and when nearly everyone expected Scotland to remain a Labour fiefdom until hell froze over – it would have been an unknown unknown.

    Rumsfeld’s analysis was actually sound. But he was such a joke that the press lost no opportunity to rubbish it for soundbites.

  31. MISERABLE OLD GIT

    I presume you mean 2006 (or early 2007) not 2008.

    Even then, Labour never had a majority – they relied on LD support – hence why they were forced to commit to PR for local elections.

  32. Oldnat

    That’s exactly the problem, the Ukip type party wants to cut taxes and increase spending by using more oil money which the other right wing parties see as irresponsible especially the two centrist parties who had a lot to do with the rules regarding use of oil money, of course then the aim was to tie the hands of a socialist party. There are other issues that separate them as well, the Christians are very concerned about restricting the sale of alcohol and maintaining or even increasing foreign aid, the liberals are well, liberal and don’t like what they see as thinly veiled racism

  33. RiN

    Thanks.

  34. MoG,

    Your quite right, We know there will be some movement just not how much.

    It is a bit like Chaos theory; Change will definitely have an effect but the effect itself is impossible to predict.

    I suppose I was more thinking in the context of the SNP not being the ones to ask because although we my have our own ideas about immigration it will depend on the government the Scottish people choose and though we ail try to make it us the choice is theirs.

    My two unknowns were we don’t no who will form the government and what it’s policy will be. but that as you point out wasn’t what Rumsfeld meant.

    Just as an aside as we are mentioning Bush era politiciansmy Brother in Law is a Canadain and an ex-carpenter who got mild MS and now acts as a guide and takes people out on fishing trips on the grand river in Ontario.

    A year or so he was taking out an american banker and his pal who seemed really familiar… turned out it was Dick Cheney.

    As Larry said afterwards, If I had recognised him at the time I might have pushed him in.

    Although in truth he wouldn’t have because not only is Larry a genuinely nice guy he said that Dick Cheney was great company too!

    Peter.

  35. Listen folks as this site although supposed to focus on polls is predominantly about Uk politics if you are going to post about elsewhere (Germany/Norway) could you put a reference to it at the head of your post so we know where you are talking about.

    Peter.

  36. PETERCAIRNS

    More accurately (despite the site’s title) it concentrates on GB polls, and GB politics.

    It often concentrates on issues that are only applicable to one part of GB, for that matter.

    When issues like “the NHS” are being discussed, it would be useful if posts which reference only one of the UK/GB political systems highlighted that fact.

  37. One for Anthony (or anyone) to comment on:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/08/16/how-twitter-could-predict-elections-a-rebuttal/

    “The attempt to use tweets for election prediction illustrates a more general movement to leverage social media data to measure public sentiment. These methods often employ sophisticated statistical modeling to arrive at an estimate or conclusion.

    In the public opinion research industry we refer to these approaches as “nonprobability methods” because of their divergence from typical rigorous probability sampling that underlies the traditional polling industry. Traditional methods have a proven track record and well established statistical theory to back them up.

    The new methods – like the approach to incorporate tweets in election predictions – make some big assumptions in order to yield useable results. That does not mean all such approaches are inherently bad. They are an inevitable part of our future. But new uses of social media represent yet another item in the toolkit of public opinion research rather than a replacement of all others. This is especially true of the “workhorse” probability sample poll whose value goes far beyond just seeing which candidate is ahead in a given day. And so our Tweetnado fades back into the clouds… but watch out! The storm clouds are still rumbling.”

    Interesting.

  38. P.S. – Previous post refers primarily to American politics. :-p

  39. Richard,

    I assume “UKIP-type party” means the Progress Party? Their history is a sobering tale for libertarians who try to tame extreme conservative parties, and it’s one that I bring up with UKIP supporters who think that the party can be reformed as soon as the older generation die off (libertarians used to say the same thing about the Tories in the 1980s).

    Oddly enough, in the Liberal/Left Party, you have one of the more Friedmanite parties in Europe e.g. tax-based approach to environmentalism, flat income taxation, guaranteed-minimum income (closer to a negative income tax than conventional welfare) freer movement of labour and liberalism on social issues. It has always impressed me that many continental European countries kept a more traditional liberalism going, while in Britain since the 1930s we’ve tended towards social democracy and conservativism.

  40. Statgeek,

    They are indeed part of the future and the ability to profile people by their social media activity and customer your message is well underway.

    The ability to analyse huge volumes of data from millions of individuals in almost real time will have huge impacts.

    There are however concerns that go way beyond how accurate this type of crowd sourcing might be.

    Recent news stories about botnets and fake advert clicks or web profiles show how easy it is to create bogus web activity that can deliberately skew predictions.

    Some countries already ban polls in the run up to elections, an increasingly difficult thing to do in the internet age, so I think we need to look very closely about how we regulate and if necessary legislate to protect the public and democracy from manipulation through the web.

    Peter.

  41. OLD NAT
    More accurately (despite the site’s title) it concentrates on GB polls, and GB politics.

    Is that right? In that case it accounts for the feeling of estrangement I’m getting from a forum which I thought was about political information and its sources and effects, including the polls and their meanings, in relation to voting intention. And, I thought, not just in the UK but in Europe and the US, so valued contributions from those who reside there or know their politics and the workings of representative democracy, or their absence, in other countries.

  42. Re poltical information:
    Wiki has good info on Russell Blaylock, the publisher of the Alzheimers advert, which, if you download it and wade through about eighty power-point pages gets to the point of his campaign going back overt the last thrity years or so: which is that it is caused by specific food additives, fluoride,and vaccinations, include swine-flu vaccine: all theories based on pseudo-scientific assetions which have been regularly disproved in the US medical journals.
    He also campaigns against Obama’s health reforms as “collectivist” having previously attached the same label to alleged Soviet subversive attacks on the US private health sector and introduction of toxic chemicals into the US food system

  43. I’ve just updated my own charts with the last 5 You Gov polls.

    I think the Labour lead is now around 5%. However, I have noticed the correlation between Conservative and UKIP VI weakening a bit, and the Conservative to LD correlation strengthening, albeit still a lower correlation. The correlation between the Conservatives and Labour is still statistically not significant.

    Correlation 22/7/13 Correlation 15/8/13
    (from 10/6/13) (from 10/6/13)

    Con – LD (0.09) (0.30)
    Con – UKIP (0.66) (0.57)
    Con – Lab (0.14) (0.11)

    This is backed up by the CUSUM analysis I maintain.

    So it appears the Labour vote is at a solid minimum at the moment. Conservative VI has got better, but at the expense of the UKIP, and partially some of the LD vote too.

    The real question this begs is how both Labour and the Conservatives can break out of status quo. I suspect much of the Labour vote now would rather cut their own arm off rather than vote Conservative. For the Conservatives, who is left to bring over from non-Labour sources?

  44. BTW

    For the correlations, the first column is 10/6/13 to 22/7/13.

    The second column is 10/6/13 to 15/8/13.

    Curse the formatting.

  45. @CATMANJEFF

    I can see why you say what you do , and yes the Labour numbers have stayed remarkably steady. However as the economy contnues to improve, as I think it will, and as we get nearer the real choice I can see the Labour vote declining and the Tory vote strengthening. All IMO of course.

  46. WARNING, BORING NORWEGIAN ELECTION NEWS!! (happy now Peter)

    So there is a new poll out today and it shows the green party breaking the 4% threshold for the first time however that is at the cost of the socialist left party which drops below the threshold, the conservatives and the Ukip type party are still 5 seats short of a majority so the shape of the next govt is still unclear. Only problem with this poll is that it’s only 1000 people but is giving VI to the first decimal place, which I’m sure AW would find strange however the difference between 3.9 and 4.1 is 9 seats so those decimal places are important. Link below I hope it works

    http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/

  47. WARNING, MORE BORING NORWEGIAN ELECTION NEWS

    here is an English language description of the problems that the right face in forming a govt

    http://www.newsinenglish.no/2013/08/13/doubts-rise-over-a-right-center-pact/

  48. WARNING, I’M GOING TO TALK MORE ABOUT THE BORING NORWEGIAN ELECTION

    The thing about the boost for the green party is that it can’t be explained by the leader debate because they were not invited, when I took the vote test in the premier Norwegian newspaper(think the Times) I come out as a green but only just, but I noticed that about 10% of the electorate had taken the test and that 11% of those that had taken the test should vote green based on their answers, it would be very strange if such a test had an effect on voting intention but I wonder. Now that the greens have broken through the 4% barrier, will they get even higher, it most certainly isn’t a wasted vote anymore, but I expect that they will fall under the threshold in the next poll, I will keep you all informed

  49. More on political information and disinformation.
    Following Met advice to News International, that it is under investigation for corporate liability of phone hacking and bribery, “Gerson Zweifach, the group general counsel of News Corp, flew in to London for emergency talks with the Met last year. According to Scotland Yard, he told police: “Crappy governance is not a crime. ” Indy, 27 Aug
    I wonder, however, whether the directive use of crappy governance by a corporate body to criminally invade the privacy of individuals may not be a different story.
    For example the six times the Sun newspaper published slanderous and untrue reports on GB, apologising each time and then repeating the offence, in the run-up to the 2010 GE.
    With no sense of irony, Mr Zweifach added that the effects of prosecution would be disastrous in the US, and would lead to the loss of 40,000 jobs, recalling, as the Indy reported, the successful plea of TB for the CPS not to pursue prosecution of BAE for massive bribery of the Saudi royal family to secure a fighter plane contract.

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