The Friday edition of Populus’s twice-weekly poll is out today and has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%. The 36% for the Tories is higher than most other polls have shown the Conservatives, though that’s probably partially a result of Populus tending to show relatively low scores for both the Lib Dems and UKIP (now that Populus have rejoined the regular polling rota I should get round to doing an updated post on the various companies’ house effects). Full Populus tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. Full tabs are here.


151 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. First !

  2. In other News

    Former media baron Conrad Black has been fined $4.1m (£2.6m) and barred from becoming the director of a US company in a deal with regulators.

    The settlement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) relates to fraud charges.

    Lord Black served three years in prison for fraud and obstruction of justice, and was released last year.

    Despite his convictions he remains a member of the UK’s House of Lords, and has the title Lord Black of Crossharbour.

  3. “Despite his convictions he remains a member of the UK’s House of Lords, and has the title Lord Black of Crossharbour.”

    For the life of me I don’t understand why the rules on prison sentences in the Commons are not applied in the Lords.

    (Then again, I’m all for setting a retirement age for the HoL as a way of getting rid of some of them so accept that I may be in a minority)

  4. Not so much a retirement age. But ennoblement should perhaps carry with it a time-limited period of sitting in the HoL. After that, you can carry on being a Lord, but lose your right to attend (much like the majority of herediteries). It would certainly make sense to have a system for removing peerages (short of the the historic attainder method which was usually just for treasonable offences). Perhaps we could just have a new Attainder Act which set out a range of serious offences for which titles could be removed.

  5. I’ve maintained all along that the Conservatives would end up on or around 34% to 36%.

    The next GE will produce another coalition – with Labour as the largest party.

    But whether or not Labour are also in government.. that depends on the LibDems. Who will be.

  6. “Despite his convictions he remains a member of the UK’s House of Lords”

    Yeah that’s not right, all the Lord’s that hold convictions that differ from mine should be chucked out

  7. @RiN,

    What did you get done for?

  8. @CHRIS TODD – and how about the Conservatives just scraping 37% and being the largest party (just about) and running a minority government then going for a proper mandate in October 2015!

  9. Neil A

    I got convictions in the political sense, but also been done for obstructing the highway(sitting in the road) and criminal damage(spray painting slogans)

  10. Single Chamber elected on Open List STV.

    No second chamber, no appointed ex-politicians, no appointed political donors, no hereditary peers, no blocking the will of the majority, if convicted on an open list system the public will deal with miscreants at the next election.

    All there to be had for some of you if you want post Sept 2014!

    Peter.

  11. Peter

    Tell us more about immigration policy after independence?

  12. Of course we could have had a mostly elected House of Lords by now, if Labour hadn’t opposed the government’s Programme Motion on the bill.

  13. It has always confused in me why some posters point to oppositions needing to be further ahead at this stage of the cycle to be doing well but between 97-01 and most of 01-05 Labour enjoyed huge leads over the Tories – it has to be put in context after 13 years in power the opinion polls seems to show that voters are willing to elect Labour again far quicker than it turned out for the Tories.
    We could turn this analysis on mid term leads on its head…. After 13 years in government, at least 3 being very unpopular, and with a leader that has yet to be taken by the public Labour has bounced back with solid voting figures but the Tories despite leading on economic competency, slowly improving economy and other good news pointers, consistency lag behind in the polls….. Why aren’t the Tories leading?!?
    It’s been only half a term but the public, through these polls, are consistently saying that’s enough for them.

  14. Neil

    I think Labour had some help with that

  15. Or indeed, if the governing party wanted an elected House of Lords.

    This is the problem with relying on the Opposition to pass your legislation for you- every so often they decide to oppose things.

  16. Sine Nomine
    @CHRIS TODD – and how about the Conservatives just scraping 37% and being the largest party (just about) and running a minority government then going for a proper mandate in October 2015!

    I think Labour are still the largest party if they get over 34%, even if the Conservative’s scrape to 37%

  17. Also in that scenario the minority Tory govt would have to changethe law to get rid of fixed term parliaments, not an easy task I think

  18. There’s a lot of TGIF optimism on here today. Things can only get worse you know.

    R in N

    Your ‘handwaving’ (well, bottom-plonking) is something I never considered doing. Amazing you can be convicted for sitting down I suppose.

    I tried the legal route with submissions to Inquiries, sitting on councils and the rest.

    Nothing works, they are determined to trash the planet, better just accept it.

  19. Conrad Black was already a dodgy character way before he was done for fraud in 2007, back in the eighty’s he was charged by the US security&exchanged commission for filing misleading public statements,although the charges were later withdrawn.

    Then there was the matter of 56 million dollars he took from the Dominion Pension Plan without telling the investors in 1984 and all the dealings with the Hollinger group from 1992 onwards when he was forced off the board.

    His whole business dealings through the 70’s to the the date he was convicted of fraud in 2007 were always on the edge of being legal.

    I know all parties have recommended some dodgy characters over the years for the House of Lords, but Black stood out by a mile as somebody who eventually fall from grace, quite why Tony Blair recommended him in 2001 for a life Peerage would be interesting to know.

  20. “I think Labour are still the largest party if they get over 34%, even if the Conservative’s scrape to 37%”

    On a UNS, yes.

    The problem is that a UNS may be next to useless now with a probable Lib Dem collapse etc. Added to that, is the first time incumbency of many Tory MPs. Pollster Peter Kellner seems to think that this may mean Labour need a lead of 6-7% to win an overall majority, and history suggests that a first time incumbency factor does exist. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will in 2015, so who knows?? In the very least, I suspect Kellner may be overestimating a tad.

    So all in all, the reliability of a crude UNS calculation (or swingometer) I think a lot depends on if there is a first time incumbency effect, if the Tories pick up a lot of the Lib-Cons seats, what happens in the marginals etc. Another marginal poll should help to reveal more. The last one in March showed the Tories losing exactly 30 seats less than on a UNS….but we shall see.

  21. Howard

    I’m not sure if it’s still true but it used to be that you could be arrested for vagrantncy if you had less that 5 pounds on your person

  22. Note: when I say losing 30 seats less, I meant (net) seat losses relative to Labour i.e. it had the effect of reducing Labour’s majority by exactly 30 seats.

  23. Fashionistas will need to know that Oliver Letwin was spotted today (by yours truly), resplendent in Magee red cords and blue blazer.

    UKPR anoraks will be relieved to learn that he didn’t appear to file a single cabinet office document on the course of his ramblings.

    Everything looks to be sent to his phone now… and he’s something of a multi-tasker: by keeping the heels of his companions within line of sight, he was able to read emails (something rather worrying, or very puzzling there), and follow old buddy Charles Moore and partner all about town without once looking up.

  24. It doesn’t look like either party is going to win by a landslide in 2015, but my money (if I was a betting man) would be on Labour with a small-to-modest majority.

  25. @adaminbarnet

    @Sine Nomine

    I think Labour are still the largest party if they get over 34%, even if the Conservative’s scrape to 37%

    I think so. Although there will not be a UNS, we can probably expect – almost be certain – that Labour will hold 5% of the disaffected LibDem voters and reach 34%.

    That would mean Con need 37.5% just to break even.

    They may get that. (As Sine Nomine suggests is possible).

    But I can see no way Labour will fail to achieve 34% or 35%.

    So my money is still on Labour being the largest party.

  26. (Sorry – Posted too soon there).

    The conundrum for the LibDems comes with this:

    What if Con receive most votes. But Labour get most seats.

    Who will they feel obliged to deal with?

    Based on their support for PR, they ought to deal with Con.

    But as Con are promising an In/Out referendum on the EU, and as the public may well vote Out (suicide IMHO) then the LibDems may feel compelled to form a coalition with Labour.

    But, as I say, a conundrum for them.

  27. @BILLY BOB

    “…Fashionistas will need to know that Oliver Letwin was spotted today (by yours truly), resplendent in Magee red cords and blue blazer…”

    In the name of all that is holy , please tell me you got a photograph and you’re going to post it to this blog with a very rude name

    Red trousers have become a tribal signifier. It’s not a tribe I’d want to belong to, but that’s not the point. What is it with the upper(upper-middle?) class and their adherence to this ludicrous fashion trend?

    rgdsm

  28. @Chris Todd,

    I think the point is that if a UNS no longer proves as accurate in calculating seat totals, then the 34% or 35% for Labour no longer necessarily applies.

  29. @Anthony Wells

    I’ve posted a post with a link. The link has a very rude word in the URL, but it’s incidental to the subject matter (the propensity of the more-money-than-sense classes to wear red trousers). If you could clear it, that’d be great.

    rgdsm

  30. Mo Farah wins the 5,000m at the Worlds.
    Peerage, taken away when he next loses?

  31. Amber,
    Agree with
    ”If Labour have learned anything from the 2010, it’s that a good candidate with a strong, local activist supported campaign can succeed regardless of the leader, media vindictiveness, national narrative etc.”

    Troops on the ground is one are where Labour have a distinct advantage over LDs and Cons (may be not over SNP I don’t know). Imagine though if we had a leader who was not vilified in the media (unfairly imo but that matters little) as much as GB, we may have ended up with most seats.

  32. @ me…

    ”I’m going to be boring and repeat myself (just the once!) Labour’s 38 to 40 per cent survives the most hostile press and a leader who hasn’t glittered yet. The Tories can scrape 37 and they’re still dead in the water.”

    I see moderation looms, but the 38 to 40 per cent for Labour seems to be surviving even that. I am honest about whom I support and state the moral basis on which I do that – so I would love to read serious reasons for doubting the conclusions I have drawn.

  33. @Jim Jam

    I disagree to some extent… at least as far as marginal seats are concerned. In 2010 we had a very well thought of local incumbent, and good local party.

    Some floating voters were not much interested in the politics. By ignoring Gordon’s percieved unpopularity… and leaving him entirely out of the literature, Labour gave the impression of not really having a candidate for PM. Imo they should have tackled this head on and been sychophantic enough (if you like) to sing his praises. Voters in these marginals were literally bombarded with mailshots showing David Cameron, as it were, humbly submitting his application for the job.

  34. Martyn

    Ahead of yer:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7908/comment-page-1#comment-849903

    Incidentally the YouGov poll seems to have roused the blogger from his lethergy to start posting again, which is slightly reassuring as you assumed that some fatal outrage had been perpetrated on him and hushed up by the Bullingdon Club.

  35. @Roger Mexico

    It was probably you I got it from in the first place…

    rgdsm

  36. @ JimJam

    There does seem to be real concern from a few notable commentators about a lack of Tory activists, were it to come down to a ‘ground war’. And, in England, the Tories could be fighting on two fronts: Labour & UKIP (Clowns to the left, Jokers to the right – just getting it out there before anybody else says it!).

  37. BB – I think I agreeing with you.
    You may or may not be right about attacking GBs unpopularity head on but the key thing imo is that pace Amber the ground campaign was in large part responsible for denying the cons an OM.

  38. @ Billy Bob

    If you don’t mind telling us: Who was your Labour MP/ Candidate in 2010?

  39. I want to know how exactly would any Labour leader not be vilified in the press, are people expecting all the media to suddenly support Labour… oh please… beer goggles or what?

    The only ones who want Labour to change leader are those opposed to Labour, end of.

  40. Jim

    Really, cos Dan Hodges seems to want to change the leadership and he’s a Labour MP, plus other blairites seem to dislike him

  41. @”I’ve posted a post with a link. The link has a very rude word in the URL, but it’s incidental to the subject matter (the propensity of the more-money-than-sense classes to wear red trousers). If you could clear it, that’d be great.”

    So glad he didn’t , thus leaving the bizarre class prejudices of a weird politico-attirement fetishist on show , for the benefit of science.

  42. Truly awesome Mo.

    Utter determination .

    The Hall of The Immortals awaits.

  43. @Martyn

    I might have taken a discrete snap without anyone noticing… but I’m a kind of a stickler for not invading people’s privacy, especially as he was obviously on a day-off with friends… so I won’t post it straight away, or answer Amber Star’s question just yet.

    Btw in the foreground I’ve just noticed a young mother hunched over a buggy – perhaps it’s too late for her, she actually LOOKED at the trousers poor thing.

  44. Re. the incumbency effect, it seems unlikely that it will uniquely fail to apply to this election. But I assume it happens because floating voters, having just voted someone in, feel a bit silly changing their minds and voting them out again at the next election.

    So far Labour hasn’t won any floating voters. The Tory -> Lab swing is feeble at best; the Labour VI is basically 2010 Lab + Lib Dem defectors. So what does this do to the incumbency effect? The Lib Dems defectors didn’t vote for the Tory last time, so they have no incentive to do so this time, and the 2010 Labour voters are unlikely to swing over to the Tories.

    So in any Tory/Lab marginal where 2010 Lab + ~30% 2010 LD > 2010 Tory, I think the incumbents may be in trouble even if the incumbency effect is still operating in full force.

  45. Richard,

    “Tell us more about immigration policy after independence?”

    I can’t because it will be decided in 2016 by whatever party (or Party’s) win the first post Independence election.

    Odds are it will be distinct from the UK’s but as we share a common border no as radical as some would like. So I’d guess less strict than the UK but not the “Back Door in to Britain!”.

    It is hard to tell because we don’t really know what the Scottish, UK and EU economic situation will be or how attractive to potential immigrants it might be.

    Another imponderable is how Scottish political oppinion will evolve? Are we really that much to the left of England or is it more a Labour vTory thing that will fade?

    As with most of these what it’s the point is to give Scots the power to make these decisions for themselves rather than getting them to give the SNP the power to make them for them.

    Power to the People not Power from the People.

    Peter.

  46. Dan Hodges is NOT a Labour MP, thank God.

    He probably is still a Labour member, since it gives him a slightly more credible platform from which to troll Ed Miliband. Although if Ed becomes Prime Minister I half expect him to flounce and go reform the SDP or something.

  47. Who’s dan Hodges?

    Actually, the interesting thing to me is that I have only heard of him as a result of postings on UKPR.

    I suspect I am highly likely to be representative of most voters.

  48. @Amber Star

    Perhaps I’m being a bit unfair. Labour lost the seat, which was very marginal to start with, plus there were boundary changes which favoured the Tories… but the Con>Lab swing was much lower than the national swing (down to the incumbent’s high standing imo). Still, I think it was a strategic mistake write the PM out of election literature.

    The new candidate is a real gem… and with the help of a few LD defectors, I’m hoping you’ll be hearing a lot from her in the near future

  49. I read this week that Dan Hodges was celebrating with Lynton Crosby when Boris Johnson best Ken Livingstone for London Mayorship.

    He apparently voted for Boris too & I’m not sure how he reconciles voting against Labour whilst claiming to be a party member & media spokesman.

  50. @ Billy Bob

    I like the sound of her already!

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