The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, and has topline figures of CON 30%(+1), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 11%(-1) – so no obvious change from last month. Full details are here.

MORI also repeated their semi regular question comparing whether people like the parties and their leaders, asking whether people like each party and its leader, the party but not the leader, the leader but not the party, or neither. 63% of people now say they don’t like Ed Miliband, up from 56% in Oct 2012 and 51% in Jan 2011. 30% say they like Miliband, a net score of minus 33. In comparison Gordon Brown’s worst score was minus 36 in July 2008. On the party he leads 49% of people say they like Labour, and 43% say they dislike Labour giving them a net score of plus 6 and meaning they are still the party that people have the most positive opinion of.

Looking at the same questions for David Cameron, 43% of people like him, 52% dislike him (a net score of minus 9, slightly better than last year but less positive than when he was in opposition). For the Conservative party 39% have a positive view, 57% a negative view (a net score of minus 18). The pattern we’ve seen before continues – David Cameron is still more likeable than his party (-9 compared to minus 18), while Ed Miliband trails behind his party (minus 33 compared to plus 6). Neither prevents Labour having a lead in voting intention.

For the first time the like him/like his party question included Nigel Farage and UKIP. Farage was liked by 27%, disliked by 50% (a net rating of minus 23); UKIP were likely by 25%, disliked by 52% (a net rating of minus 27, so Farage slightly more popular than his party).


232 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 11”

1 2 3 4 5
  1. Also,

    11) Will Miliband’s standing improve with more exposure?

  2. Carfew,is it exactly a given thing that economic recovery will ensure a Tory victory? 1992 suggests not and James Kirkup suggested this over at the Telegraph the other day.Just wondered if there is any polling evidence to support this.

  3. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 15th August – Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -27

    -Tories appear to have gained slightly from UKIP but if Labour keep on producing the 38-40% figures with very little if any slippage it seems a tall task for the Tories to get anywhere close to outright victory

  4. @Ann in Wales

    No, it isn’t a given, but even if not enough on its own, economic recovery combined with other factors may work…

  5. @Carefew

    During the Mayoral campaign I was told straight-facedly that Boris had rescued a young woman from being mugged (true), whereas Ken, while drunk, had kicked his pregnant partner down the stairs (total bare-faced untruth) – where this whispering campaign originated is anyone’s guess, but it was obviously being repeated at dinner parties and water-cooler moments.

    The parties will know that unrestrained negativity could backfire against their campaigns, but I wouldn’t discount off-base unattributable stunts and twitter storms becoming a factor in this election.

  6. Conservatives are polling well for mid term. The million dollar question is whether when it comes to polling day, EM will cost Labour. We honestly don’t yet. Could be huge, could be negligible.

  7. 12) will milliband’s poor rating reduce labour VI when people are confronted with him actually becoming PM

  8. This poll on like/dislike is an interesting one, although will need to see further data to see how accurate it is:

    I am always interested in the psychology of the responses – whether you can directly compare a like for Cameron and a like for Miliband.

    I would suggest that a like/dislike for Cameron is more robust as he is PM and has the exposure. People have seen enough to take a hardened view. Miliband, as with any opposition leader, is a bit of an unknown quantity and so people base it on a gut feeling.

    The question is will more exposure to Miliband reinforce the likes or dislikes. I suggest that there is more room for movement than there is for Cameron whom people will already have formed an opinion on

    There is one area where Cameron could be caught out though – he is a carefully managed PR entity but is weak when not in command of the agenda- his reactions at PMQ are an example of this. How will he cope with the pressure of an election campaign. He potentially is also at risk of revelations coming out of the Coulson/Brooks trial.

    The worry for the Tories is that they are not popular as a party and in a GE that may matter more than the personality of the PM – we do not operate a Presidential system.

  9. Labour are rightly favourites with the bookies to win in 2015 IMO. We can only go by polling, even if it’s hypothetical and the GE is still a long way off. However, five of the main questions which have yet to be answered, and which continue to bring some uncertainty to the outcome IMO are:-

    1) Will the usual close-to-GE for the incumbent party (i.e. Tories) happen this time? Especially in the light of some kind of probably economic recovery (of sorts).
    2) Will Labour manage to get their voters to turn out on GE day. The problem is that they have a lot of the old Lib sympathisers – a group that are notoriously more unreliable when it comes to turning out on GE day. Also, it’s typically more dodgy when you rely on the under 65s than the over.
    3) Will the first time incumbency effect help the Tories? A lot of polling experts, including Peter Kellner, seem to think it will. History seems to suggest so, but will it this time?
    4) Will Ed Miliband’s current poor leadership (and personal) ratings become more important as a GE campaign gets underway. Will he turn these bad ratings around, or will people not care anyway?
    5) Will Labour’s poor ratings on economic competence be a drag on support come a GE campaign which will effectively be about economic competence? Ed Balls and Miliband are currently less trusted than Cameron and Osborne. Will they be able to turn this around, or will it not matter anyway?

    It’s these 5 main questions which, for me, mean that a Labour victory is not yet guaranteed. If they currently sat on a substantial double digit lead and voters were really taken by Labour, I’d no doubt think differently….but as it is, a lead of around 6%-7% across all pollsters, plus the uncertainty that still lies with the above factors, means that the next GE is still up for grabs IMO.

  10. *Will the usual close-to-GE bounceback*

  11. @AmbivalentSupporter

    The problem for Labour in 2015 will be a Tory party who have probably 3 times as much to spend on their campaign. If you remember in 2010, the Tories had a huge billboard campaign, much more newspaper and online advertising, plus probably more localised campaign material being deployed.

    I am not saying that this works to persuade people to vote for them, but if you run an extensive campaign which mainly attacks Labour, it is not going to be easy for Labour to combat this. Labour may not have as much Union funding for their campaign in 2015, as they did in previous elections.

    The issue for the Tories is whether they can win the marginal seats they need to form the largest party again or a majority. I am not convinced that the Tories will be in a better position in 2015, than they were in 2010. In 2010, they could not win a majority, against an unpopular Brown
    government. In 2015, after bringing in NHS changes, making redundant many public sector workers and after a very difficult 5 years economically, I think it will be very difficult for them.

    The 2015 election I think will be a very strange one, with so many different factors, that it is difficult to predict. I certainly would not be down the betting shop putting any money on any outcome. I don’t think the 2015 election will be about the leaders of the parties. It will be about policies which offer hope for the future and any party going down the negative campaign route may live to regret it.

  12. Conservatives are polling well for mid term. The million dollar question is whether when it comes to polling day, EM will cost Labour. We honestly don’t yet. Could be huge, could be negligible.

    -Is it still mid term with a coalition to dissolve probably next Year I don’t know?

    The main difference between the polling figures now and this time in 2008 is the Conservatives were polling around 14% higher and Labour around 14% Lower. There has also been a profound switch in support from LD to Labour as the only available centre left party now available and a probably less profound switch from Tory to UKIP the Tories may get some of this back ,alternatively it may disappear to the BNP whose voters en masse appear to have switched to UKIP as the more electable Ultra Right Alternative.

  13. George Eaton suggests that the LDs may well run out of money & be forced to step down in order to collect the short money opposition parties are entitled to.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/08/why-lib-dems-funding-crisis-could-end-coalition-early

  14. @BILLY BOB

    “The parties will know that unrestrained negativity could backfire against their campaigns, but I wouldn’t discount off-base unattributable stunts and twitter storms becoming a factor in this election.”

    ——–

    Given my limited understanding of such things, negative campaigning can be quite effective, but not necessarily the ideal approach. It’s what you do if you don’t have a compelling enough positive vision of your own to sell.

    People talk about a lack of policy from Labour, but can anyone tell me what Conservatives are offering post 2015, apart from more austerity and a referendum (maybe).

  15. JAMIE
    “12) will milliband’s poor rating reduce labour VI when people are confronted with him actually becoming PM”

    ———–

    Lol, fair enough. AW tends to say more exposure benefits parties… Does that work for leaders?

    I forgot to add the question of the effect of leader popularity which it’s said is a big factor in elections…

  16. Billy Bob
    Judging by previous elections involving LC I suspect there will be a profoundly negative campaign (I could give some examples but AW doesn’t like me doing it)

  17. @R Huckle,

    Yep, some very relevant points there.

  18. Cameron’s Polling at -33 is Hardly a vote winning position either.

  19. Steve, are there some before/after polling figures concerning Crosby’s techniques?

  20. I am not saying that this works to persuade people to vote for them, but if you run an extensive campaign which mainly attacks Labour, it is not going to be easy for Labour to combat this. Labour may not have as much Union funding for their campaign in 2015, as they did in previous elections.

    If Labour can’t outspend the Tories, what they’ll probably try to do is out-canvass them. People can see posters a lot but if the other party takes the time to visit them then they’re going to appreciate that too. With declining Tory membership (estimates ranging from high tens of thousands to low six figures) some Conservative Associations aren’t going to be able to manage much more than mailshots.

    Also, the Conservatives are going to be in the unique (for them) position of fighting off serious challenges from left, centre and right. Labour pretty much don’t have to fight anyone except the Tories, since UKIP are basically not a threat to them and there are only a handful of LD/Lab marginals where the Lib Dems won’t just roll over and die (Bermondsey, Hornsey and Wood Green and a couple of the Scottish seats). Thus, they can concentrate their funding more effectively against their main opponent.

    I agree, it’s going to be close, and plenty of dirty tactics from all sides.

  21. Yeah, but it’s still two bloody years away

  22. Carfew Yes but AW doesn’t like me mentioning it so you will have to look it up for yourself.

    LC has been actively involved in 12 Election campaigns all for Right of Centre Parties with mixed success.

    He was directly involved in the Conservative Failed Campaign in 2005.

  23. If Labour can’t outspend the Tories, what they’ll probably try to do is out-canvass them.

    -Labour has approximately twice the number of active members as the Tories with an average age Two Decades Younger so it’s certainly a possibility.

    The LD’s have achieved significant local success based on a similar principle.

  24. I don’t agree with all this party funding malarkey. Surely in a healthy democratic system elections shouldn’t be about a party’s ability to subsidise a big and successful campaign, but about actual policies and personalities?

  25. Always confused me why some posters point to oppositions needing to be further ahead at this stage of the cycle to be doing well but between 97-01 and most of 01-05 Labour enjoyed huge leads over the Tories – it has to be put in context after 13 years in power the opinion polls seems to show that voters are willing to elect Labour again far quicker than it turned out for the Tories.
    We could turn this analysis on mid term leads on its head…. After 13 years in government, at least 3 being very unpopular, and with a leader that has yet to be taken by the public Labour has bounced back with solid voting figures but the Tories despite leading on economic competency, slowly improving economy and other good news pointers, consistency lag behind in the polls….. Why aren’t the Tories leading?!?
    It’s been only half a term but the public, through these polls, are consistently saying that’s enough for them.

  26. Populus:

    Lab 39 (nc)
    Cons 36 (+3)
    LD 10 (-2)
    UKIP 8 (-2)
    Oth 8 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-15/

  27. @RICHARD IN NORWAY

    “Yeah, but it’s still two bloody years away”

    ————–

    Hope that doesn’t mean you’re leaving us for a couple of years then!!

    Think of it as being like footie. I mean, you can wait till after the game for the results, but it’s not the same as watching it unfold and speculating on the outcome…

  28. @Steve

    Okies, fair enough, if Crosby’s on the banned list. Who knew?

  29. One fascinating thing about the UKIP surge is that it seems like it will stop 2015 being a reversion to two-party politics, in the sense that LD + UKIP is close to the old LD voting trend from 1992-2010 i.e. about 20%.

    It’s been 34 years since Lab + Con = >80%, whereas at times in the 1950s they approached 100%.

  30. Can someone explain to me what has changed in the fundamentals that have been the basis for this optimism in the economy. I really can’t see what has changed in the real economy in the last year:

    Wages still surpressed versus inflation
    We still have a big deficit so Government cuts carrying on
    No great increase in lending to business

    All I can see if that exports have risen a certain extent.

    Is it just based on consumer confuidence improving and, if so, is this a basis for the restructuring we want?

    Secondly, where is the money to fund this retail revival coming from – savings or credit?

  31. The Crikey polling website only narrowly survived a lawsuit; there have been a number of court cases… “notoriously wary and litigious” is about as far as most journalists are prepared to go.

  32. Would like to throw in another imponderable in terms of factors that could influence the GE vote spread.

    For a considerable time now (pre dating 2010) Ofgem and the big power generators have been warning of difficulties in future power supply capacity. The last government continued the previous administrations policy of effectively not having an long term energy supply policy, and the coalition has carried this on.

    The warnings are becoming steadily more acute, and are currently suggesting we will have only very minimal excess power production capacity in 2015, with a peak capacity of 104% of maximum demand. A level considered safe is 120%, so we would be way, way into the danger zone.
    It’s pretty much too late now to rectify this situation before May 2015, so this is now a fact of life.

    It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. If weather and power production conditions remain benign, nothing will happen. If, however, winter and spring of 2014/2015 is particularly cold, and this combines with any one of dozens of random events, like major storms blocking a nuclear reactors cooling water supply with seaweed, as happened last winter causing a complete shut down of an entire power plant, than we’ve got power cuts to contend with.

    This sounds a bit dramatic, but is in fact an extremely real scenario. Were this to happen with a month or two of an election, the government would take multiple hits in their competence ratings. Five years into power, and with a complete absence of any credible policy response to a clearly identified issue, the option of blaming Labour would not work.

    As a polling issue, this may sound a little obtuse, but industry insiders are commonly suggesting that this is a 50/50 scenario, with some suggesting it’s actually more likely than not to happen at some stage in the next two winters.

    Paradoxically, one of the best ways to avert this now would be to see a return to recession, as this is one of the best ways to reduce power demand.

  33. @BCrombie

    “I would suggest that a like/dislike for Cameron is more robust as he is PM and has the exposure. People have seen enough to take a hardened view. Miliband, as with any opposition leader, is a bit of an unknown quantity and so people base it on a gut feeling.

    The question is will more exposure to Miliband reinforce the likes or dislikes. I suggest that there is more room for movement than there is for Cameron whom people will already have formed an opinion on”

    The polls say that Cameron is popular despite his party being less popular. Miliband is less popular despite his party being more popular. You suggest this is ‘exposure’.

    I suggest that Nick Clegg’s negative ratings, in line with his party’s ratings and that Nick Clegg had plenty of exposure means that exposure in itself has nothing to do with it.

    It might be the right kind of exposure, which would suggest that Cameron is doing a good job as leader of his party, or it would suggest that exposure has nothing to do with it, and Miliband is not perceived to be doing a good job of leading his party.

    I would also note that the YG polling on this is not based on popularity, but on “is ‘x’ doing a good job leading their party”, which probably explains why Cameron gets more positive ratings than his party. There have been no major gaffs of late, and the EU is on the back burner for now.

    Regarding your post on ‘what has changed in the economy’,

    unemployment is slowly falling;
    manufacturing PMI is rising;
    there have been less small business failures;
    the trade deficit is narrowing as the UK exports more, and to non EU countries;
    construction is at a three year high;

    Whether this translates to a better economic situation remains to be seen, but the optimism is growing with these factors.

  34. As usual the raw figures from the Populus tables:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online_VI_16-08-2013_BPC.pdf

    tell a very different story:

    Con 30%

    Lab 36%

    Lib Dem 8%

    UKIP 17%

    Others 7%

    AS I keep on saying, while I think there is a problem with on-line panels being too UKIP-biased, by comparing current Part-id to 2010 figures, Populus are over-compensating wildly.

    When even the telephone pollsters, usually the poorest scorers for UKIP, are showing 11% (MORI) and 10% (ICM), the sort of scores we are seeing from Populus are ridiculous.

  35. Carfrew

    I just think that a lot of the comments here are talking in circles especially the ones about ed being unpopular or Cameron being more popular than his party, I’ve seen it all before, hundreds of times

  36. Statgeek

    I am not saying that positive/negative is linked to exposure, what I am saying is the more exposure the more solid the results, and resistant to change

    If you see someone on tv for 3 years consistently you form a stronger opinion on someone you see once a month

    As to competence on leading the party, I am not sure that will be divorced from like/dislike.

    On the economic side, howe many of these are linked to that unmeasurable ‘confidence’ as I have not seen any change in conditions in reality in the last year. From what I see, in my region, it is getting worse.

  37. Alec

    I just read that electricity consumption in England and Wales has gone down by 27% since 2005!! Which is frankly astonishing, so much so that I’ll have to check out the stats to see that it’s above board. It’s interesting because many use Chinese power consumption figures as a proxy for GDP , knowing that those numbers are more difficult to fiddle

  38. Statgeek – I think you are dead right that the key question is how will EM be viewed as the GE approaches and non anoraks like us start to take more notice of him.
    More specifically how will he go down with the swing voters (it matters little what Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells thinks of him) and will those 2010 LDs who are giving a Lab VI be affected one way or the other, either firming up or easing away.

  39. I still think the results of 2014 EU & locals will give an indication of where the parties are, if UKIP surge and take more seats, it will depend on who they have taken them from… it could get very messy if the elections go badly.

    The in/out vote is not resolved yet; this is another crucial part of the plaster DC has in place what happens if it is scuppered?

    The message Labour need to get out which was pointed out by a journalist, the NHS is not a business or a bank, so the government need to stop treating it as though it is a bank or business that is going bust…

  40. @Roger Mexico

    Are you a Polling expert or is it that you did not like the figures in the latest Populus Poll?

  41. @RICHARD IN NORWAY

    “I just think that a lot of the comments here are talking in circles especially the ones about ed being unpopular or Cameron being more popular than his party, I’ve seen it all before, hundreds of times”

    ———-

    Well, there’s a temptation for some to want to boil it down to a single defining issue – leader approval, or economy, or sticky LDs etc. – so I tried to broaden it to thinking about the totality, and see if peeps had other factors…

  42. Roger Mexico

    Thanks for the earlier reference to the German polls. I am sure the CDU /CSU supporters can lift the FDP above the 5% if they choose (they will probably so choose, as they did before) but even in a broad coalition they will be super dominant, clearly.

  43. Most people see very little directly of Miliband and so have to rely on what a generally hostile right-wing press and media say about him. The main source of direct coverage is from the bear pit of PMQs, which almost always paints an unflattering picture of both combatants. I am sure that has got a lot to do with Miliband’s “dislike” rating. Cameron unlike Miliband has plenty of opportunities to offset that by numerous appearances elsewhere in a calmer atmosphere, so people don’t have to judge him solely from PMQs.

    So with the greater opportunities afforded for direct coverage in a GE, I am sure that Miliband will improve the perceptions people have of him.

  44. @BCrombie

    “On the economic side, howe many of these are linked to that unmeasurable ‘confidence’ as I have not seen any change in conditions in reality in the last year. From what I see, in my region, it is getting worse.”

    Can you give examples? Up here I would say that things are so, so. There was a period from 2008 to 2011 where there was an increase in boarded up shops, but that is starting to decline, which suggests there’s a bit of confidence. The local centre has three mobile phone shops for example, and we can agree that they are not a necessity item for most, so people are spending money.

    No bookies have closed as far as I know, and the bookies are the last to close in many situations of no money.

  45. Roger Mexico

    I just wonder if you are a bit hard on Populus. Once one sees the ‘fiddling’ that all the pollsters are engaged in, (sorry AW, considered compensation based on sound principles) one can make a judgement, at least as to trend.

    In short, fiddle with the UKIP all you may, it still shows a Labour lead and that is all that is relevant, given FPTP and the current boundaries.

  46. I just spotted this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-23719463

    “Stirling Council has been accused by unions of interfering in national pay bargaining negotiations.”

    “The administration is a Labour-Conservative partnership, with Labour’s Johanna Boyd as Council Leader.”

    The whole thing appears to be a storm in a teacup, with the union defending Stirling’s council workers over the other councils’ terms. Not a fight worth fighting imo. Does this perhaps suggest that unions are getting more truculent?

  47. @Alec
    Interesting point. And the cynic in me wonders if Labour supporters might not be tempted to ramp up power usage before the election.

    Colin et al, better start building turbines and fitting solar panels!!…

  48. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23717866

    found the link…
    stop treating the NHS like a failing bank

  49. @Howard

    I think not. The relevant evidence is Table 12 from Populus, which reveal that Populus think that they are somehow 10 times more likely to find a UKIP identifier in their unweighted panel responses than is typical of the whole population, and have reweighted to correct for that. Something of that scale takes “fiddling” into a whole new ball park.

    What sampling methodology could conceivably produce such bias? More likely that the bias is far less and the reweighting is wrong.

    “Ridiculous” is quite mild really.

  50. PS. Thinking about it, substitute “Certain” for “More likely” above.

1 2 3 4 5