The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, and has topline figures of CON 30%(+1), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 11%(-1) – so no obvious change from last month. Full details are here.

MORI also repeated their semi regular question comparing whether people like the parties and their leaders, asking whether people like each party and its leader, the party but not the leader, the leader but not the party, or neither. 63% of people now say they don’t like Ed Miliband, up from 56% in Oct 2012 and 51% in Jan 2011. 30% say they like Miliband, a net score of minus 33. In comparison Gordon Brown’s worst score was minus 36 in July 2008. On the party he leads 49% of people say they like Labour, and 43% say they dislike Labour giving them a net score of plus 6 and meaning they are still the party that people have the most positive opinion of.

Looking at the same questions for David Cameron, 43% of people like him, 52% dislike him (a net score of minus 9, slightly better than last year but less positive than when he was in opposition). For the Conservative party 39% have a positive view, 57% a negative view (a net score of minus 18). The pattern we’ve seen before continues – David Cameron is still more likeable than his party (-9 compared to minus 18), while Ed Miliband trails behind his party (minus 33 compared to plus 6). Neither prevents Labour having a lead in voting intention.

For the first time the like him/like his party question included Nigel Farage and UKIP. Farage was liked by 27%, disliked by 50% (a net rating of minus 23); UKIP were likely by 25%, disliked by 52% (a net rating of minus 27, so Farage slightly more popular than his party).


232 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 11”

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  1. @mrnameless

    Francis Maude is always one to watch. He (and Portillo) did for Hague, and he was one of the suits who moved against IDS (similar role in relation to Thatcher when her time had come… his father Angus had a hand in Thatcher’s campaign against Heath). You would have to say Maude has ownership of the modernisation project, not Cameron.

    Some Conservative strategists seem to favour a female leader again, someone from the 2010 intake, therefore with modern aspects… but more hardline (small state/anti EU) than Thatcher.

  2. Spearment

    Your rhetoric sounds like some left wing student from the 1980’s, on a anti Thatcher march, why not try to more objective in your condemnation of politicians you don’t support after all this is 2013.

    Trying to paint people into a corner to suit your particular prejudices is rather immature, the next GE is not yet decided most of the polls show a close contest which is likely to be very close on the day.

    Incidently in case you missed it Labour are just as unpopular in some parts of the South as the Tories are in some parts of the North it’s the Midlands were the next election will be won or lost and there it’s within a few percentage points.

  3. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Failed/it was always pretty half-hearted, I think.

    You can’t reinvent your party unless you are really, really committed to reform, because most of the people in your party like it the way it is and will resist you. Thatcher was absolutely committed, because Thatcher was absolutely committed to everything she did. Blair was absolutely committed, because Labour had lost four elections and “you have to remember that the great passion of Tony’s life is his hatred of the Labour Party,” as one of his friends put it.

    Neither Cameron nor Miliband strike me as someone with that kind of reforming zeal. Miliband just isn’t combative enough, and I don’t think Cameron has a strong enough internal compass. He just goes with the flow. When he was rising in the party the current in his clique was moving towards social liberalism (and even then he lagged- Michael Gove was calling for the Tories to take up gay rights years before Cameron decided he supported them, and George Osborne voted for gay adoption when Cameron voted against). Environmentalism was in. Backing Labour spending plans was in. Not thinking what Michael Howard was thinking was in.

    Now the tide has turned. Gove wants to leave the EU, Osborne wants fracking, his backbenchers are having nervous breakdowns, purple is the new blue, and Cameron is drifting back in the other direction. I don’t think it’s even a U-turn, really; he just doesn’t like to make a fuss.

  4. @BCROMBIE

    Try putting yourself into the context that Spearmint posted and you will see why I reacted in the way I did and Colin agreed with my reaction.

    or are you trying to make a feeble joke?

  5. TURK

    You must really enjoy reading these expert opinions from “external” analysts on the party of which you are a member .

    Tides turning-nervous breakdowns-blah blah blah.

    They seem to be so certain about it all too !

  6. @Colin

    Absolutely, Labour seems far more divided to me than the Tories.

  7. BCROMBIE

    @”People’s deaths are celebrated by people every day – would you agree with me that celebrating anybody’s death is repugnant£

    People’s LIVES are celebrated every day at their funerals-by the people who knew & loved them in life.

    Peoples DEATHS are only celebrated by the sort of people TOH describes-and I can only recall one example.

  8. I would suggest only deranged or totally repugnant people would throw parties celebrating Margaret Thatchers death

    It’s not something I would do, but from a VI standpoint the relevant question is less “Is this reasonable behaviour?” and more “Is this regional behaviour?”

    Turk is right of course that much of the South is a Labour exclusion zone- but with the exception of East Anglia it has been since the Labour Party was founded, whereas in 1979 the Tories won 22 seats in Scotland. If they’d won 22 seats in 2010, there would be a Conservative majority government right now.

  9. TOH

    The Blairite / Brownite schism is certainly alive and kicking here when the right buttons are pressed.

    I wish them well with their nocturnal bonding & chatter.

    G’night

  10. Anyway, I’m surprised you’re so affronted by all this- I’m coming to the defence of your leader, after all!

  11. @Colin

    Ditto

  12. A poll by the Forsa institute puts the CDU-CSU conservative group on 40%, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) second with 23% and the Greens – the SPD’s campaign allies – on 13%.

    Now that’s what I call a lead!

  13. Who the hell brought up Thatcher again?

  14. Re Turk’s comment on Spearmint’s (many) posts:

    I didn’t find Spearmint immature in what he said at all. Partisan, yes. He doesn’t agree with you, that’s for sure, but he made some pungent points.

    Personally, I think your own hopes of a ”close fought” General Election in 2015 fly in the face of this constant Labour 38 to 40 per cent. Milliband has declared virtually nothing (frustrating many of us who would like to know whether he will take serious measures to undo current Tory opportunism) yet round about 40 per cent say ‘no’ to the Tories. That’s despite margins of error (which seem to make no difference to this VI) and despite a venomous press. Do you have any reasons for hoping any sizeable portion of that 40 per cent will turn blue in the next 21 months?

  15. Mea culpa.

    In my defence, it is hard to explain that 57% negative perception without her…

  16. Howard

    What is the other 24 points, wasn’t there a left party as well, and of course the liberals who most expect to finish below the 5 % threshold, will Merkel be able to form a govt if her allies don’t make the threshold when she’s only on 40%

  17. The Other Howard

    @Colin

    Absolutely, Labour seems far more divided to me than the Tories.

    Do you have any polling evidence

  18. Talking about ditching leaders, there’s a metaphor here somewhere – http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2013/aug/15/decapitated-copperhead-snake-bites-itself-video

    After the rattlesnake’s head is decapitated, it manages to bite it’s own, still writhing, body.

    Apply this to Labour/Conservative parties as you see fit. (Lib Dems also, if there are enough of them to split into two these days).

  19. @BCROMBIE

    Try putting yourself into the context that Spearmint posted and you will see why I reacted in the way I did and Colin agreed with my reaction.

    Howard you always agree with Colin and Turk for that matter.

  20. TOH,

    I agree. Spot on.

  21. We still don’t know what kind of govt we are going to get after the election, it doesn’t look like the two blue parties will get enough seats to govern on their own, at the moment they are just falling short but the Ukip style party seems to be going backwards so that gap to a majority could get wider, then it’s a question of which of the centre parties will be invited in or will accept an invitation. Of course if the FRP slide continues and both the centre right parties get over the threshold we could see see the conservatives ditch FRP and go for a more stable centre right govt instead of the right/right govt we have been expecting, or we could end up with a minority govt which I think most likely

  22. @ Roger Rebel,

    Well, 43% of them are dissatisfied with their leader, as opposed to 25% of the Tories.

    I still think amending your own Queen’s Speech takes the 2013 prize for internal division, though. Unless Ed Balls bites a Blairite at Conference or something, which we can never rule out.

  23. This autumn will be crunch time for Cameron. It’s really the last time the Tory party can get rid of him and have enough time for the successor to have a chance.

  24. RiN
    I haven’t been following this forum closely lately, so may have missed some new memes, but

    ” it doesn’t look like the two blue parties will get enough seats to govern on their own”

    The two blue parties being Conservatives and who? UKIP? Libs? DUP?

    “then it’s a question of which of the centre parties will be invited in or will accept an invitation.”

    Libs? Plaid?

    “both the centre right parties get over the threshold”

    Cons+UKIP?

    I’m just trying to understand.

  25. @RICHARD IN NORWAY

    I don’t agree, the polling indicates a Labour majority. A majority of about 84, see LATEST UNS PROJECTION on the right. I am sure those on the right would hope for a hung parliament and Labour would hope for a much bigger majority. But as it is we have nothing to go on but the polling.

  26. Pete B

    I’m talking about the Norwegian GE, the two blue parties are con and a Ukip style party the two centre right parties are the Christian party and the liberals

  27. Gary

    Sorry, I was musing about our elections in 5 weeks time

  28. Sorry, didn’t realise you were talking about Norway.

  29. @RICHARD IN NORWAY

    Whoops, sorry. Forget sometimes that other countries have elections ;)

  30. There are a few things in the entrails of the Ipsos-Mori poll that give me encouragement.

    Firstly, much of the dissatisfaction with Ed is from Labour supporters who think he’s not providing strong enough opposition. Secondly, Labour are much more well-liked than the Tories, to the point where even 25% of people intending to vote Tory say they like Labour. The opposite figure is only 11%.

    This means there is great scope for improvement in Labour’s position, and as the election gets nearer and Labour finally start to put some meat on the bones and people see Ed in action more I’m very confident this will happen.

    The 49% and 39% figures for people ‘liking’ each party shows the size of the respective polls the parties are fishing in, and I’m scratching my head trying to work out where the votes for a second Tory term are going to come from. I think all these Labour people freaking out over the narrowing polls need to get a bleedin’ grip o’ themselves. My thoughts on the situation are the same as they’ve been since early 2011 when the magnitude of the swing to Labour became clear, which is that we’re on course for victory, and if we realise our potential, we could finish as much as 10-12% ahead of the Tories in share of the vote.

    Also, my generation by about 2-to-1 (smallish sample size, but it’s still statistically significant) say they like Labour. Given my generation have grown up in such a cynical age that’s a gobsmackingly good figure for the party. The corresponding figure for my generation’s view on the Tories was -12, giving a net gap of -39 between the parties. The corresponding figure for the over-55s was only -9. That makes me feel pretty hopeful for the future.

  31. Pete, Gary

    Yep, I didn’t make it clear, I was just sort of thinking aloud

  32. Sorry, that should have been a net gap of 41 between the parties.

  33. I think the thing is that no Labour government has ever taken decisions that have permanently entrenched it as a ‘nasty party’ with large sections of the population.

    Labour governments have made poor decisions (PFI), been tribal and pigheaded (Unilateralism, EEC) and even made the odd malicious decision (Ghurkas) but they aren’t seen as fundamentally mean (to gay people, to women, to the young) in the same way that many people see the Tories.

    I think outside the realm of Daily Mail comments, which seem to think Ed Miliband is a secret communist, the worst most people would say about Labour is that they’re well-meaning in their own way but screw up a lot. I would say that’s probably a better impression to have than being seen as gratuitously cruel.

  34. Nameless

    But not in a country which has masochistic tendencies

  35. Any polling tweets or news tonight?

    Anything to break the party political broadcasts from both sides.

  36. RiN

    So the PM in a taxi gimmick – Measure for Measure style – didn’t have much of an effect?

  37. @Statgeek

    The bad news is that we’re still 2 years ahead of the GE. The broadcasts have only just begun :(

  38. Anthony,

    When will we see the Ipsos-Mori issues poll for August.

    I noticed that in July the constitutional issue had jumped to 15% in Scotland and was wondering if it might be the start of an upturn. Up until now it has largely sat in single figures like the UK figure.

    To be honest checking back till April the figures do tend to bounce about a bit anyway, but as I have commented before I think the referendum campaign will get interesting when the salience of the issue starts getting up to the kind of level we see for the economy or unemployment.

    Peter.

  39. Raf

    Not as much as the first debate which Jens won convincing according to most commentators, the Ukip leader had a very bad debate, also Jens brought up the thing which is on a lot of folks mind, that the conservatives have agreed to go into govt with Ukip and is that really going to work and aren’t the Ukip a bunch of [email protected], he had the con leader on one side of him and the Ukip on the other and he asked the con leader “are you really going to sit in govt with her” pointing to the Ukip leader, it was a very little sentence and not a nice thing to do but it really expressed the fears of many

  40. howard

    A poll by the Forsa institute puts the CDU-CSU conservative group on 40%, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) second with 23% and the Greens – the SPD’s campaign allies – on 13%.

    Now that’s what I call a lead!

    Except that this is a PR election, so it isn’t really and not just because 23 + 13 is not that much less than 40. It’s also because the Left also have around 8% while Merkel’s allies the FDP have declined to 5%:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2013

    So while it is possible the CDU/CSU + FDP government could get a small majority it’s just as likely they won’t. Of course if the FDP drop below 5%, they might be out of the Bundestag entirely, which would make Merkel’s problems even worse. In past bad electoral times the FDP have got in being ‘lent’ some CDU votes at last minutes, but that may not happen this time.

    So you could end up with the Left holding the balance of power which was the situation in 2005-9. In that situation there was a ‘grand coalition’ between CDU/CSU and SPD with Merkel as Chancellor, but whether the SPD would do that again or try for a minority government with the Greens relying on support from the Left I don’t know.

    Two points that have echos with the UK. If Merkel fails in a tight race it may partly be because a new UKIP-style Party (though more anti-Euro than EU), the AfD takes about 2-3% of the vote, presumably from the CDU/CSU. Not enough to get into the Bundestag, but enough to affect the result.

    Secondly polls show Merkel massively leading the SPD candidate for Chancellor, Steinbrueck, by around 60% to 30%. Yet the parliamentary race is much closer. It will also be interesting to see how the polls change on this during the campaign. It may be that the only way for Merkel is down, simply because her ratings are so good.

  41. How instructive this site is. I never knew, until Anthony mentioned it on the previous thread, that donations to Political Parties were exempt from inheritance tax. But only if the nominated Party has either “a) 2 members of that party were elected to the House of Commons, or b) one member was so elected and at least 150,000 votes were given to candidates who were members of that party” apparently. So Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, Green (b only), SF, PC and SDLP (a only). Mind you it looks as if Miss Edward’s solicitors might have been ignorant of this law as well. If they were, it would be interesting to know if the Parties subsequently looked at reclaiming the tax.

    None of which explains why the Coalition Parties didn’t ask to look at the will for guidance on how to divvy up the spoils (you’d have thought it standard to get a copy of the will with the legacy in any case) and, if they did see it, why they didn’t they realise the money wasn’t for them. It doesn’t matter what the executors say, it’s what the wording is and Political Parties aren’t mentioned. The position of the Lib Dems is particularly odd if they didn’t ask for the will, because you can envisage some wordings that would lead to a 50-50 split. Instead Clegg’s people seemed to be happy with whatever crumbs the Conservatives decided they should have. Which you might say is much what they’ve been doing from the last three years.

    I did wonder if this sort of thing have happened before and been missed because there was only one Party involved, but the Mail has been digging and, to its great disappointment, all the bequests they found seem to have been highly specific.

    Though with regards to some comments on the previous thread, I would defend nosiness against Colin and co’s rather lofty dismissals. As well as curiosity being the driver of scientific research, human progress, etc, etc, it’s also necessary in situations like this. Without it the Mail would have just not looked at the will behind this rather odd bequest and discovered the real situation. So while it is highly likely that the Edwards’s money came from decades of frugality by her and her parents, the possibility that it was really from the White Slave Trade or that she was really the secret love child of a Rockerfeller makes it always tempting to investigate.

    And off course the line between prurience and the right to know is always blurred. You may say a politician’s private life is their own business, but what if they are literally in bed with a lobbyist operating in an area they are responsioble for?

  42. Colin

    General Belgrano – 323 dead – Sun headline ‘Gotcha’, Bin Laden, Saddam Hussein and countless over people have had their deaths celebrated.

    It is something people have always done and always will do

    I was pointing out TOH that it is all relativism. That certain peoples deaths have been celebrated by some and mourned by others. I didn’t make a judgement I was just pointing this out

    We don’t live in a black and white world

    Are you telling me there have not been occassions when you have heard of someone’s death and said ‘Good’

  43. 34/39/9/11 this morning.

    Average of last ten YouGovs:-

    33/39/10/12

  44. BCROMBIE

    The Belgrano headline was appalling-I don’t know, but I suppose other wars have produced such regrettable reactions.

    Saddam Hussein & Bin Laden , I suppose were always going to provoke celebration in communities & individuals who suffered from their history of mass murder & genocide. Yes-I take that point.

  45. Colin

    Very good early morning to you

    I was not trying to provoke just to say that it is not black and white and that those people who purposely do bad things or, in MT’s case, take a strident view of the world are going to cause strong emotions which may fall over into this.

    Hope you have a good day

  46. @AMBER STAR (fpt)

    “Yes, properly established mutuals, co-ops etc. are a good alternative. Despite state & private sector services/ enterprises having up & down cycles, the scrutiny & unbecoming glee which erupts when a mutual or co-op has problems is very unpleasant to witness – given that their difficulties are rarely of their own making. It will be interesting to see how the Anglican Church’s credit union fares in the coming years.”

    —————-

    Yes, I can understand the right’s aversion to the State running everything, but not why some of them have such a hard-on for private capital dominating everything at the expense of more democratic and local alternatives etc.

  47. Colin – the average looks pretty settled, baring an event we need the conference season to stir things up for a few weeks, then the autumn statement. Unless there is a By-Election with knock on VI impacts the second half of November will indicate whether the undoubted improved Economic news (UK as a whole) will assist Tory VI.

  48. BCROMBIE

    Thanks & the same to you.

    I won’t return to the issue of MT’s death in any detail except to observe that :-

    What constitutes a “strident view” is a subjective judgement, and of course all politicians have strongly held principles & views ( well some of them !)

    The mass expressions of relief -and yes joy-at the gruesome deaths of war criminals & mass murderers , are hardly to be compared with the tiny group of people who expressed joy at the death of MT. Certainly they were more evident in the pages of the Daily Mail , than on the streets of London is that large crowd

  49. JIM JAM

    It does.

    From my point of view the recent momentum needs to continue & I am looking for break even to appear at some point.

    But we probably need some “events” now as you say.

  50. Outstanding questions open to debate on the VI thing, having impact on election, include, but are not limited to:

    1) How core is Labour’s 36 – 38%, eg can action on welfare/immigration or economy make inroads? What ruses from Crosby to come?…

    2) How far will economic recovery reach, especially in marginals. And will economies elsewhere continue to assist?

    3) What can/will Labour offer to counter as the election draws closer

    4) Ukip… People say they’ll get a boost over Euros, then decline again. This is missing the point: they may get a further boost from exposure in run up to the GE. How significant will this be?

    5) Lib Dems… How much will tactical voting affect them and Labour/Tories as a consequence

    6) Messina vs Graf… How much impact from the ground game etc.

    7) Sweetners Tories may offer in run up to GE?

    8) Coalition de-coupling – when, how and effect on GE?

    9) Cost of living versus growth plus housing stimulus. How will it play out?

    10) Other potential factors that may spring up. Eg Europe, banking issues, deal with Ukip etc…

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