The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, and has topline figures of CON 30%(+1), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 11%(-1) – so no obvious change from last month. Full details are here.

MORI also repeated their semi regular question comparing whether people like the parties and their leaders, asking whether people like each party and its leader, the party but not the leader, the leader but not the party, or neither. 63% of people now say they don’t like Ed Miliband, up from 56% in Oct 2012 and 51% in Jan 2011. 30% say they like Miliband, a net score of minus 33. In comparison Gordon Brown’s worst score was minus 36 in July 2008. On the party he leads 49% of people say they like Labour, and 43% say they dislike Labour giving them a net score of plus 6 and meaning they are still the party that people have the most positive opinion of.

Looking at the same questions for David Cameron, 43% of people like him, 52% dislike him (a net score of minus 9, slightly better than last year but less positive than when he was in opposition). For the Conservative party 39% have a positive view, 57% a negative view (a net score of minus 18). The pattern we’ve seen before continues – David Cameron is still more likeable than his party (-9 compared to minus 18), while Ed Miliband trails behind his party (minus 33 compared to plus 6). Neither prevents Labour having a lead in voting intention.

For the first time the like him/like his party question included Nigel Farage and UKIP. Farage was liked by 27%, disliked by 50% (a net rating of minus 23); UKIP were likely by 25%, disliked by 52% (a net rating of minus 27, so Farage slightly more popular than his party).


232 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 30, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 11”

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  1. I have never been first before….

  2. …continuing on from the last thread (apologies for double post).

    @AMBIVALENTSUPPORTER
    “The Tories have succeeded in the first personal target I set them at the start of the year – they have got a double digit lead down to a single digit one (currently around 6% or 7%) by the end of this summer……”
    ————————
    []

    All the Tories have done is take back most of the natural Conservative VI from UKIP to push their polling back to the low 30’s …which is their core support.

    They have not progressed from this in any way, shape or form and are stuck, despite all the economic ‘good news’ management. They are on course to be soundly beaten at the next election.

    The VI in this country has changed making it much harder for The Tories. They have not won a General Election majority since 1992, I doubt if they will win the next one in 2015 and if they do win in 2020 (Boris?) …that will mark a gap of 28 years and in this scenario be the first time a Conservative Government has won an election outright from opposition since 1979 (41 years!).

    Their natural party of Government status has become a myth. I blame it on the age of the internet! ;-)

  3. A classic example of why to ignore Cross Breaks.

    Scotland; Conservatives 35% Labour 33%!

    Peter.

  4. IpsosMORI do seem to have been charting a rise in certainty-to vote on the Labour side… if this translates to behaviour on voting day then it could be a factor, but it’s a big if. Currently the most-certain-to-vote sections of Conservative support appear to be the ones flirting with UKIP.

    Roger Mortimore has discussed the problem of false recall of at the last election, and suggested it was possibile that “Lib Dems were more likely to exaggerate their likelihood of turning out before the election, and also more likely to overclaim on their turnout after the election”.

    h
    ttp://www.research-live.com/comment/general-election-2010-did-the-opinion-polls-flatter-to-deceive?/4003088.article

    Would this have any bearing on AW’s comment (pt) on the sample: ” …it looks like about 35% of those who gave a recalled 2010 vote said they voted Labour”?

  5. That’s very bad news for Ukip, that both the party and the leader have overall negative ratings suggests that the recent highs in VI of 22 or thereabouts is their ceiling. They are another marmite party just like the rest(apart from the snp)

  6. @Paul Bristol,

    “They are on course to be soundly beaten at the next election.”

    Maybe, maybe not. No one knows what is going to happen in 2015 with any great degree of certainty, including polling experts.

  7. Richard,

    “That’s very bad news for Ukip, that both the party and the leader have overall negative ratings”

    Really? I’d have thought plain party loyalty and partisanship would have rant that you would expect any party on around 20% to get negative ratings. After all four out of five don’t support them for some reason or another.

    Peter.

  8. Peter

    It was unexpected, I don’t think the the dems had similar figures before they were in govt. In fact I’m pretty sure that it was completely opposite. You would expect a third party which has never been in govt to have positive ratings

  9. Billy Bob – it is a very long standing debate within polling (we’ll at least it is between telephone pollsters. For online pollsters that use panels it’s not nearly so much of an issue, as we can track whether an individual changes their answer)

    Essentially companies like ICM and ComRes think that telephone sampling needs to be politically weighted otherwise the samples will be biased to Labour. They think that false recall exists, but that it is fairly steady, so it can be estimated and factored into the equation, allowing past vote to be used for weighting.

    MORI instead take the view that false recall is very volatile, and can change dramatically in response to events or changes in current political support. They take the view that weighting by past vote is therefore dangerous, and risks smoothing out genuine changes in political opinion.

    Whoever is right, it often (but not always, as MORI’s obviously changes from month to month) results in a difference in the proportion of 2010 Labour voters in their samples.

  10. Interesting that MORI is giving Labour a bigger lead than 3 months ago!

  11. Got ABB in my A levels and a 10% Lab lead. I’m having a very good day, apart from the rain.

    Do we know if the net positive opinion of Labour will help counteract the negativity towards Miliband? People who think ‘even if I don’t like the leader, they’re still a better party as a whole’?

  12. Despite these figures Sky(Fox)News and the Evening Standard position is that Labour support is falling.

    I appreciate that Sky News isn’t really interested in the facts but you would have thought the editors of the Evening Standard might have red their own survey figures but no they lead with “Sorry Ed, they’re just not that into you: Six out of 10 polled don’t like Mr Miliband” You have to get to paragraph Six before you realise that the result showed Labour’s lead was maintained at 10% and that the Labour party is more “liked” than the Tories doesn’t feature until paragraph 7

    The fact that Ed Miliband is the only leader whose popularity is increasing only makes it in as an after thought!

  13. @Anthony

    Out of curiosity, why is the samples end up being biased towards Labour if uncorrected?

  14. @MrNameLess,

    Congrats! Same grades I got all those years ago….enjoy uni if that’s where you are heading.

  15. Yep, off to Sheffield to study journalism – if I ever report an opinion poll, I’ll do it properly.

  16. @AW
    Surely YouGov is in a unique position where it could very easily resolve the 64,000$ question of false recall of 2010 vote, at least for online polling?

    You already have records on how (most) members of your panel said they had voted immediately after the 2010 general election.

    Have you asked them the same question since then? Because it would be relatively simple to then compare the results in 2013 with those in 2010. The key question is whether people become less willing to own up to voting for a party once its popularity has markedly declined from GE levels, which is particularly relevant to LDs at the moment.

    I realise that the issue of false recall in telephone/face-to-face polling is not necessarily the same as in online polling. Nonetheless if a pattern is there (or not) it would give us a good pointer as to the scale of the problem that the other companies may be facing.

  17. Sorry, for clarity that should have been:
    “become less willing to own up to HAVING VOTED IN 2010 for a party once its popularity has markedly declined from GE levels”

  18. Mr Nameless,well done indeed.Enjoy university.

  19. The MORI question about likes and dislikes of parties and leaders is first class and I’m surprised that other polling companies have not followed it. It confirms definitively that Miliband is a brake on his party’s support whereas Cameron is an asset. But the hostility to the Conservatives as a party should be of concern to them, with 57% of people positively disliking them, as this must put a very low ceiling on their maximum support, 14% below that of Labour (who 43% positively dislike).

    This one is also very revealing:
    Do you agree or disagree with “I don’t know what (named party leader) stands for”.
    Cameron – net 23% disagree
    Miliband – net 13% agree
    Clegg – net 12% agree
    So a 36% difference between Cameron and Miliband there, which very much clarifies the problem for Labour. People don’t vote positively for enigmas. If Miliband and Labour wont clarify what they stand for, their opponents will do the job for them in less flattering terms.

  20. Ed Milliband why did you have to win? He is just too nerdy.

    Not that David Milliband would have been hugely popular, certainly no Blair, but he is more statesman than Ed.

    Still maybe he will pull something out the hat.

  21. @Mr Nameless

    Well done. My son’s just back from Sheffield (Uni) and can’t speak highly enough of the city. And if you get the chance of casting a judgement at the ballot box to determine the political future of the architect of those £9k fees, an awful lot of students elsewhere will envy you.

  22. Thank God Ed is no Blair – the last thing we need is another wicked man as party leader.

  23. @Bail,

    Agreed. David Milliband would walk it, but you won’t find much support for him here, as he is well to the centre compared to the passionate labour voters on here, so they have to stick their flag to Ed.

  24. A hung parliament and low LD numbers is starting to worry me, because the situation in Northern Ireland isn’t as stable as it was a year or two ago. Wheeling and dealing between a government and the Unionists/SDLP doesn’t sound good.

  25. And well done mrnameless. I loved Uni back in the 90s, although I was unusual as a Tory supporter, most of the union were the Che Guevara t-shirt wearing socialists back in the day, although a few who I stayed in touch with have rather changed their views since then!

  26. And here’s more about the failure of Cameron to detoxify the Conservative brand.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/08/tories-are-still-most-toxic-party-voters

  27. @Anthony Wells

    Thanks for your response.

    I’m guessing that most panel members, if they are asked the same question a number of times (ie. how did you vote in 2010?), will at least attempt to give YouGov consistent anwers over time. But if they are asked the same question – out of the blue – by someone they’ve never ‘met’ before can we be so sure?

    Still, there is a potential problem for Labour if it’s true that some of those LD defectors have a track record of overstating their certainty-to-vote.

  28. Any idea as to how Alevel grades from the 1970s would translate into present day equivalents? I know someone who managed BBC in 1973 and suggested that the equivalent today would be AAB – but a colleague thinks it would be more likely to be AAA!

  29. I’m not sure what sort of leader voters want. Apparently they’re sick of Cleggs, Camerons and Blairs but also don’t want an Ed Miliband or a Ted Heath style of leader (weird but earnest).

  30. PeterCairns (fpt)

    Interesting piece on the referendum in the Scotsman.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-44-still-undecided-1-3045382

    No it isn’t if you read the details:

    […]the figures – which are based on Ipsos Mori’s last five polls since the beginning of 2012

    So there’s no new poll (Muggins went and checked) just a re-analysis of five previous ones spread over 17 months and with widely varying top-lines. Actually it is interesting that there isn’t a new one, because if MORI are supposed to be doing a regular quarterly one for the Times, it should be due about now. But last year rather than polling September and December they just did one in October, so we may see a similar pattern this year (or they may do one a year before the referendum date in September).

    The Scotsman’s coverage also tells us that “Ipsos Mori yesterday released fresh analysis revealing a massive tranche of voters – 44 per cent – have yet to decide”. But these meaningles combined figures don’t tell us even that, because that is based on “56 per cent of Scots are certain to vote” and many of the 44% remainder will have definately decide NOT to vote.

    What with today’s Standard, Tuesday’s Guardian and now this, you do wonder if there is some sort of Interns Challenge Cup for Most Biased and Innumerate Reporting of Polls in August.

  31. RICH
    @Bail,
    Agreed. David Milliband would walk it, but you won’t find much support for him here, as he is well to the centre compared to the passionate labour voters on here, so they have to stick their flag to Ed.

    -I would have preferred David too so sucks yarboo!

  32. @Graham

    I strongly suspect that if Mr Nameless had been taught in the 1970s to the then syllabus he would have got ABB. We don’t have grade inflation, we have memory inflation.

    When I was studying my A-levels in the 1980s we had a dispute in our maths department about which board had the best syllabus. As a result they taught us one syllabus but we sat two seperate exams. And everyone was 1-2 grades worse on the syllabus we hadn’t been taught. As an aside the people who suggested the newer syllabus (the one we weren’t taught) was right – vectors and vector calculus would have been infinitely more useful.

  33. Well done MrN.

    Before the last GE I and many lefties liked ICM false recall and DK/WV partial allocation to previous vote as it does compensate for some of the ephemeral anti-governing parties mood amongst some of their supporters.

    The issue for me is that whilst the adjustments imo make sense for Lab and Cons who have large ‘tribal’ support most of which returns for GEs in spite of ‘never vote for them again’ type remarks the LDs have a much lower committed block making GE vote recapture less likely.

    Phil – I think you have hit the nail on the head and senior Labour figures agree, I expect a strong attempt to make clear what EM stands for at the conference.

  34. And well done mrnameless. I loved Uni back in the 90s, although I was unusual as a Tory supporter, most of the union were the Che Guevara t-shirt wearing socialists back in the day,

    -I would have thought that was more in My Day in the 1970’s as Che died in 1967

    You sure you haven’t been watching too many Citizen Smith Repeats on UK Gold?

    “Power to the People”

  35. After the month Labour have had no real movement at all….. Won’t put anymore as Antony isn’t likely to submit anyway

  36. MrNameless,

    “– if I ever report an opinion poll, I’ll do it properly.”

    Not if you want to keep your job you want.

    Most opinion polls make bad news, your going to uni to learn how to make it into something else.

    Peter.

  37. Any idea as to how Alevel grades from the 1970s would translate into present day equivalents?
    ————
    I have a suggestion: Why don’t people who think they’d get a better grade now do open learning A-levels in the same subjects & see what grade they actually get?

  38. @MrNameless

    Well done! Back in the dark ages I went to Uni with just two A level passes (no grades in those days).

    A grandaughter did well today with A* A and B so off to Uni of her choice. She worked very hard so I was very pleased for her.

  39. @ Mr Nameless

    Many congratulations on your results & all the best for Uni.

  40. @Peter Cairns

    “A classic example of why to ignore Cross Breaks.

    Scotland; Conservatives 35% Labour 33%!”

    LoL!

    Here’s a what-if for you. The economy improves and while the Conservatives claim the credit nationally, the SNP claim it ‘regionally’. I suppose it would depend on the difference of success between Scotland and the UK as a whole, but if the economy improves either way, can we expect Labour’s vote in Scotland to decline (differently from the UK, that is)?

    I’d love to see the Conservatives in Scotland above 25% regularly, and the SNP there too. It might make a General Election interesting for once. There’s been so little change in the past couple.

    I guess the four biggest parties taking 92% or more of the vote. With that in mind, I threw 23% each into the Scotland votes calc (I don’t think it has been adjusted since 2010, which doesn’t allow for the SNP victory in 2011).

    Lab 26
    Lib 16
    SNP 10
    Con 7

    Only Labour would be disappointed with that (despite getting a disproportionate share of the seats). I want every seat to be marginal, and every election to be a nail biter. :-)

  41. MRNAMELESS
    Got ABB in my A levels

    Congratulations !

  42. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Well done! We’ll count on you to save political journalism from itself some day.

    @ Bill Patrick,

    I’ve been wondering about the Northern Ireland thing too. A minority Labour government might choose to fall rather than get too entangled with the republicans- Callaghan’s did- but even so it seems like a risk. The best course might be to go to DUP and the SDLP together and ask for confidence and supply, which DUP might even agree to do because they seem pretty unhappy with Cameron. But I worry such an agreement would collapse the moment the Northern Ireland Secretary did something to make either party unhappy.

  43. ‘I have a suggestion: Why don’t people who think they’d get a better grade now do open learning A-levels in the same subjects & see what grade they actually get?’

    I am sure some people have done that. I taught A Level Economics for 15 years up to 2001. It was very clear even by the late 1990s that standards had slipped significantly compared with the 70s and early 80s
    I have to disagree with ‘TheSheep’ if only because of the radical change that took place in the system of marking in the late 1980s. Prior to the change, exam grades were awarded on the basis of relative marking which meant that only a certain % of students in a given year could be awarded a particular grade – eg only the top – say – 8 – 10% were awarded an A grade.. For the last 25 years a system of absolute marking has been used with the result that – theoretically – every student can now be awarded an A grade.It is no accident that the switch to the new system saw a very big increase in the top grades.
    The reality of grade inflation is apparent right across education up to degree level with a 2.1 now being the normal or average degree – until the late 80s most students emerged with a 2.2. Such a change is counterintuitive given that degree courses are no longer restricted to effectively the more academic top 10% at a school. I have a friend – very left wing – who teaches International Relations at a good university and he estimates that his marks have been creeping upwards at a rate of half of one percent a year since 1996 – so that piece of work then given 56% would now receive 64%. He has explained that there so much more pressure on universities nowadays to be seen to have more firsts and 2.1s. Years ago a fair number of Oxbridge students ended up with Third class degrees – very rare now!

  44. Looking at those net popularity ratings:

    Cameron -9
    Farage -23
    Clegg -24
    Miliband -33

    Lab +6
    Lib -4
    Con -19
    UKIP -27

    So if Miliband and Cameron swap jobs, Labour wins in 2015 and far more people will be happy. :-p

  45. @Graham

    I am guessing, but I think that 20 or more years of life make these things easier, and especially for those that did them.

    I wasn’t particularly academic at school, and I found myself in a higher maths class for a week, due to a chosen subject not starting until the following week (“let’s put him in Maths, rather than PE or something interesting / useful”).

    I did O’ Level maths, and didn’t like it much, and found higher maths to be quite difficult (but I didn’t have to be too committed).

    Moving on 25 years, I did an HNC in business with the OU, and found it very, very easy. That was a mix of operations, HR, accountancy and marketing. The key point is that I didn’t write an essay until I was almost 40. The first two or three were pretty bad, but I developed a simple system of asking each tutor for an example essay, with their preferred method of referencing (not all tutors like the same ones, although they should).

    After that it was easy stuff. That took about 6 months, and I can’t say for sure, but I would guess an HNC is equivalent to perhaps 2 A’ Levels or more? In fact just looked it up, and it says an HNC is level 5 NQF, while an A level is level 3.

    It probably helps if the student has either an interest in a given subject, or at least understands the benefits or consequences of a pass or fail.

  46. Something as yet uncommented on: poor Ed Miliband has overtaken Nick Clegg as the most unpopular leader! This, Chris Bryant and the eggs- what a week.

    But Mr. Eggs highlights an ambiguity in the data. Mr. Eggs is not fond of the Labour leader because he feels he’s too rightwing, which means that he’s very unlikely to swing over to the Tories although his feelings may have a detrimental impact on his willingness to turn out to vote for Labour.

    How many of the dissatisfied Labour and ex-Lib Dem voters are like Rich, and dislike Ed because they want Tony Blair, and how many are like Mr. Eggs and dislike him because they want Tony Benn? They look identical in this kind of polling question, but the difference will have a massive impact on their voting behaviour come the election and it determines which sort of policies Labour should propose if they want to win. We really need an Ashcroft poll of the unhappy Labour voters to understand what we’re looking at here.

  47. Wow

  48. @Statgeek,

    An HNC or HND course would normally be seen as the equivalent of the first year of a degree course.

  49. Spearmint

    A very good point

  50. @Graham

    Why don’t we compromise. Lets do the KS grading on a relative basis as they used to do for A-levels and O-levels. It would destress the teaching profession by taking a lot of the variability out of cohorts. Thick year? No problem, the grades will be the same…

    I cant see how ou could support a system that would give the same pupil different grades if they answered the same questions in exactly the same way but in two different years.

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