The daily YouGov poll for the Sun today has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here.
For methodology geeks amongst you the YouGov weighting figures have been changed slightly for today’s poll – full details are here, but in short this is just an update to targets, rather than a substantial change to methods. One change is to update the age and gender targets from those based on the 2001 census data to ones based on the 2011 census data, the second is to update the party ID weights – where possible YouGov weight party ID using data collected in May 2010 to targets for May 2010, when party ID for panellists could be calibrated against voting intentions and the actual general election result. Some panelists have joined the YouGov panel since then, and party ID has drifted since 2010, so the ID targets need to be reviewed and if necessary adapted to account for that.
In this instance, the proportion of people identifying as Lib Dems has fallen since 2010, and the proportion of people identifying with other parties (particularly UKIP) has increased, so the weighting targets have been tweaked to account for that. The impact on final results is pretty modest – we tested it over a couple of weeks, and on average UKIP are 0.8 of a percentage point higher, the Lib Dems 0.5 of a percentage point lower. Using the old weights today’s poll would have shown identical figures for Con, Lab and Lib Dem, but UKIP would have been at 12%.