The daily YouGov poll for the Sun today has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here.

For methodology geeks amongst you the YouGov weighting figures have been changed slightly for today’s poll – full details are here, but in short this is just an update to targets, rather than a substantial change to methods. One change is to update the age and gender targets from those based on the 2001 census data to ones based on the 2011 census data, the second is to update the party ID weights – where possible YouGov weight party ID using data collected in May 2010 to targets for May 2010, when party ID for panellists could be calibrated against voting intentions and the actual general election result. Some panelists have joined the YouGov panel since then, and party ID has drifted since 2010, so the ID targets need to be reviewed and if necessary adapted to account for that.

In this instance, the proportion of people identifying as Lib Dems has fallen since 2010, and the proportion of people identifying with other parties (particularly UKIP) has increased, so the weighting targets have been tweaked to account for that. The impact on final results is pretty modest – we tested it over a couple of weeks, and on average UKIP are 0.8 of a percentage point higher, the Lib Dems 0.5 of a percentage point lower. Using the old weights today’s poll would have shown identical figures for Con, Lab and Lib Dem, but UKIP would have been at 12%.


545 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 40, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. @Sine Nomine,

    The Tories have succeeded in the first personal target I set them at the start of the year – they have got a double digit lead down to a single digit one (currently around 6% or 7%) by the end of this summer. The next aim, if they are to stand a good chance of at least forming the next government, is to get the lead down to an average of 4% or 5% by the New Year.

  2. @ Charles

    I can tell that to this day you feel a tad uncomfortable about voting with your feet. But a few parents can’t change things on their own – despite the ‘free’ schools policy pretending that they can. Real change requires the collective will of the majority to make it happen.

    And I think we may be getting somewhere! I will keep pressing the Labour Party to push on with the mixed campus idea: This would have academic & technical subjects taught on the same campus; there would be streaming but it would be reviewed every year or two not cast in stone at age 11. And regarding the academic/ technical split – that should by choice, with both options being available to all pupils at an appropriate point in their education.

  3. Ann in Wales – actually the treasury wouldn’t have got a penny, gifts to political parties are exempt from inheritance tax*.

    (* if the political party won a certain number of seats and votes at the previous election… presumably to stop people setting up their own little political parties to avoid inheritance tax)

  4. Amber’s Fluid intelligence must be spreading…
    ———–
    Yes; it’s called fluid intelligence ‘cos drinking helps. Coffee is quite good for it – but avoid irn bru (that’s the one with girders which are big metal poles & they are not very fluid at all).

  5. @SINE NOMINE

    “we are a free country and people can spend their money how they see fit.

    If we ban Private Schools do we ban Private Health too – in fact do we allow the state to own and run everything.”

    ————-

    There are problems with letting people buy whatever they want. Would you let them buy slaves? Is it cool to be able to buy educational advantage?

    Just a thought. But anyway, you don’t have to let the State run everything. You can have trusts and stuff. Very Big Society.

  6. “Ann in Wales – actually the treasury wouldn’t have got a penny, gifts to political parties are exempt from inheritance tax*.

    (* if the political party won a certain number of seats and votes at the previous election… presumably to stop people setting up their own little political parties to avoid inheritance tax)”

    To be honest, given the ease and number of ways in which inheritance tax can be avoided, I’m surprised anyone pays any….

  7. They’ll never stop private education…too many MPs and people of all political colours whose families and children who enjoy the privilege. Even those who speak against it.

  8. @ Carfrew

    But anyway, you don’t have to let the State run everything. You can have trusts and stuff. Very Big Society.
    ————–
    Yes, properly established mutuals, co-ops etc. are a good alternative. Despite state & private sector services/ enterprises having up & down cycles, the scrutiny & unbecoming glee which erupts when a mutual or co-op has problems is very unpleasant to witness – given that their difficulties are rarely of their own making. It will be interesting to see how the Anglican Church’s credit union fares in the coming years.

  9. Middle Class people who are in state comprehensive schools invariably have tuition. £40.00 an hour is the normal fee, plus meal!

    Helps enormously.

  10. SINE NOMINE @ 9.22am

    &

    AMBI @ 9.31 am

    Agree wholeheartedly-well said.

  11. ALEC.
    Apologies for any offence, it was not meant. Our area must be different to your area.

    For our son in particular, it is the school sport that made the difference. After 1988 in most areas school team sport declined very badly, in response to the 1265 Hour contract, and the decline of teaching being seen as a vocation.

  12. ALEC

    @” reports that Merkel is to back repatriation of some powers from Brussels. ”

    That is indeed an interesting one.

    In principle a definite plus for DC-but her reported timetable looks difficult for DC.

  13. Why was the money originally split 420K/100K between Con and LD?

    Is it because the government payroll (including Lords) seems to be something like185:45?

  14. @SINE NOMINE
    “we are a free country and people can spend their money how they see fit.

    -Try buying an Assault Rifle and see if this Neo Liberal policy works.

    It works in the USA assuming the purpose is to kill 29,000 of your fellow citizens each year.

  15. Just a thought on the Gift gate or what ever the press will be calling it.

    As then Will in question was drafted in 2001 isn’t there some quite strong possibility that the Old Lady in Question intended it to go to that nice Mr Blair?

  16. There is a cracking example of how a political slant on a paper will affect the reporting of a poll. Take the Evening Statndards report on todays poll. The headline reads “Sorry Ed they are just not into you” then there are half a dozen paragraphs telling how bad it is for him, but hidden below it all is “However, only Mr Miliband saw an improvement in his rating.”. Then they report ““Despite that Labour have held onto their lead.”..so you may ask what is this “held on to their lead”….1% lead, 2% lead, maybe 3% lead……..erm, no a 10% lead.

    Figures are:

    Labour 40%
    Conservative 30%
    UKIP 11%
    Lib Dem 10%

    Reporters…..don’t you just love ’em :-)

  17. That is todays IPSOS Mori poll by the way, not Yougov.

  18. Red Rag

    Must have attended the Sky News School of Impartial reporting.

    Despite then change of ownership the Evening Standard remains effectively a free copy of the Daily Mail which is a little odd as the “I” is an excellent little paper.

  19. STEVE

    I feel sure Sine Nomine meant “within the law”.

    He was espousing personal freedom under the law-not personal freedom to shoot people.

  20. @ Red Rag

    Is it for a medicinal purpose that you read the ES or as penitence?

  21. @ Laszlo – Both

  22. AMBER
    How are you on a 5 subject baccalauriat, and an extra year for those who need it, either for academic or for vocational qulification/competence for the next stage (which my second d. did to get natural science and humanities?) This is a high skills and career oriented strategy that I imagine other parents go for, and would cost tuppence ha’peny,
    And why did Old Nat, I think it was, find so absurd the notion of exchanges with other EU countries for sixth form of high school and pre-uni education? (I mistakenly campaigned on the assumption that that was included in the 1994 EU Manifesto, and would be supported by the EC.)

  23. Colin Buying an Assault type rifle is of course legal in the USA and was effectively legal in the UK until the aftermath of Hungerford in 1987.

    I can personally vouch for this as I was shot at by an individual armed with a Semi Automatic Assault rifle of this type while serving in the Met. While of course his actions were illegal His ownership of the weapon wasn’t.

    (He missed if you are worried about it, I didn’t)

  24. Yep, the states is the home of freedom where you can buy an assault rifle but not a bag of marijuana, and in some states not even rolling papers, plus oral sex is still illegal in some states. But who care as long as you got a gun

  25. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/sorry-ed-theyre-just-not-that-into-you-six-out-of-10-dont-like-labour-leader-miliband-8762874.html?origin=internalSearch

    Link for the Standard if anyone’s interested.

    A word of warning….don’t read the comments. It gets messy down there.

  26. SwampMongrel

    I was just amused at how the London ES tried to bury a 10 point Labour lead from being the headline. That and the fact that a majority of voters don’t ‘like’ the other leaders either.

  27. @Colin – thanks for that – you just can’t say anything on here at times without someone taking what you say to a ridiculous extreme.
    Freedom to buy a gun and shoot someone – for goodness sake as if I meant that kind of freedom.
    Steve and the like know exactly what ‘freedom to spend’ i’m talking about – enough said!

  28. @Sine Nomine

    Good morning, and well said.

  29. @Sine Nomine – “For goodness sake this is Britain – Ancient Britain, steeped in History including our Private/Public Schools.
    We are not a communist State or even a Socialist State, we are a free country and people can spend their money how they see fit.
    If we ban Private Schools do we ban Private Health too – in fact do we allow the state to own and run everything.”

    Not sure anyone was suggesting bans, unless I’ve missed something?

    I would support private schools and health institutions paying full costs for the staff training the state does though. They live of the backs of taxpayers in that regard.

    Re ‘Amber fluid’ – are we on early doors today then?

  30. @Amber I like the idea of your campus schools, although I don’t know enough about education to think through the ins and outs.

    @chris Lane My second son was doing really well at cricket in his first year at secondary school which must I guess have been 1987. Teachers coached him, and there were school matches at weekends etc. There was then a teachers’ strike and sport at the school seemed to collapse completely. The only way kids at that school can now get on in cricket at least is by joining a local club as some members of his team did. It seemed a sad state of affairs to me at the time.

  31. STEVE

    @”Colin Buying an Assault type rifle is of course legal in the USA ”

    Yep Steve-I think I clocked that-but SN was talking about the UK.

  32. SINE NOMINE

    A pleasure !!

  33. @Alec

    Agreed as long as long as the private institutions are are rewarded for the savings to the state sector when people like me choose to use private health or education despite the fact that in doing so we are paying twice..

  34. CHARLES.
    Yes. My second post in Lancaster, 1983-88 saw the end of state school sport on the whole. The 1265 hours contract came, based on a Government estimate that we work for 32 hours a week, for 40 weeks a year.
    Hence teachers, sadly, stopped anything above that. We took for granted Saturday School Sport, and it really helped relationships with the pupils.
    The 1974-79 period of industrial actions was also damaging.

    THE OTHER HOWARD.
    Yes, we have paid twice!

    MORI POLL NEWS.
    How do we reconcile YG and MORI please?

  35. @AMBIVALENTSUPPORTER
    “The Tories have succeeded in the first personal target I set them at the start of the year – they have got a double digit lead down to a single digit one (currently around 6% or 7%) by the end of this summer……”
    ————————
    []

    All the Tories have done is take back most of the natural Conservative VI from UKIP to push their polling back to the low 30’s …which is their core support.

    They have not progressed from this in any way, shape or form and are stuck, despite all the economic ‘good news’ management. They are on course to be soundly beaten at the next election.

    The VI in this country has changed making it much harder for The Tories. They have not won a General Election majority since 1992, I doubt if they will win the next one in 2015 and if they do win in 2020 (Boris?) …that will mark a gap of 28 years and in this scenario be the first time a Conservative Government has won an election outright from opposition since 1979 (41 years!).

    Their natural party of Government status has become a myth. I blame it on the age of the internet! ;-)

  36. New thread

  37. ChrisLane – “How do we reconcile YG and MORI please?”

    MORI samples tend to be a bit more Laboury because they don’t use political weighting (you can’t work it out completely from the published tabs, but if we assume a reasonable level of “others” it looks like about 35% of those who gave a recalled 2010 vote said they voted Labour, whereas companies that weight using past vote like ICM and ComRes obviously tend to have around 30%). This would lead to MORI tending to give better results for Labour than other companies, except they also have that very harsher turnout filter which tends to favour the Tories – the two things often cancel out bringing MORI in line with other companies.

    In this example the harsh turnout filter actually helped Labour, not the Tories, hence MORI produced a poll showing a higher Labour lead than some other companies.

  38. This really is Angels on the head of a pin stuff.

    We live in a democracy that has a mixed economy.

    If people want to set up schools or clinics as a private enterprise they can if they want. If people want to spend their disposable income (after tax) in them they should be free to do so.

    If you want Tuition fees rather than free education then who someone decides to work for should be up to them.

    If on the other hand you want free education but think it should be somehow payed back in some kind of social contribution then it should apply to all not just Doctors and teachers.

    As for me my view is;

    Independent schools or hospitals are fine but I am not sure about charitable status.

    I am for free higher education for all who have the academic ability because I think economically socially and culturally the more educated we are as a nation the better.

    I’ve never liked the what you get out of it in terms of a better job and value for money because I have always viewed education to be an end in itself.

    Talk of the value of an education tends to be seen more and more in only financial terms and there is a lot more to it than that.

    As to tax relief on Private school fees or health insurance so that you don’t pay twice, again that is too narrow a view.

    Even if you have no children it is a good thing to have a public sector education system and all who can afford to should contribute to it.

    Even if you pay for your own health care some of your taxes should go towards whatever form of national health provision the people have chosen.

    Everyone should contribute to the Commom Weal and supporting the things we need to create a healthy society even if there will be bits of it they do not individually use.

    I have no intention of buying a rifle, but even if I did, I wouldn’t expect tax relief because I shouldn’t need to fund the army as I can now defend myself!

    People on the left can seem to dislike the ability of those with the means to buy themselves better and see it as unfair. People on the right can sometimes recent contributing to the needs of other than themselves.

    No wonder political party membership has slumped to only 1% because most of us really don’t care about this kind of ideological debate.

    Their is so much we can do to make the current system of mixed provision work better that most see debates about public v private as little more than a distraction.

    Peter.

  39. AMBER
    ” the money was ill-gotten in some way & she was atoning by leaving it to the government”
    Are you sure it’s envy, and not the need to exercise your fluid inteligence that drives your interest in the old girl? Suggested, for example, by the notion, which I second from experience of a number of old girls who came into the party at the time, that she had fallen in love with TB?
    I also wonder if you might want to take this further, in terms of an Ealing Comedy – the PM leaving No. 10 by the back door and throwing his cloak around him as he hastens across the shadows of Horse Guards Parade, to join in the felonious conspiracy which is syphoning the nation’s riches into the savings of old ladies holding readings of Ivan Ilych in the Pimlico public library. Hugh Grant or Peter Sellers, and Margaret Rutherford. in the lead roles.

  40. @ John Pilgrim

    What a great idea; I love it!

  41. PETERCAIRNS
    “If people want to set up schools or clinics as a private enterprise they can if they want. If people want to spend their disposable income (after tax) in them they should be free to do so.”
    Nevertheless this is a political rather than just a moral one. Amber’s and Carfrew’s fascinating exchange was founded on Amber’s assertion (she’ll correct me otherwise) was to do with the role of the public schools in supporting an elite, which then asserts a dominant role in public life.
    Taking a closer look at the differences between state and public schools, I believe a real difference in their function is the effect of the latter in institutionalising its inmates, in the same way that prison or the Army does.
    In the only other country which I know at all well where the system has been closely reproduced, Pakistan, Lawrence College, for example, without question has contributed to creating an elite which, continuing in the Army and in a feudal society based in rural estates and land owners, also dominates politics.
    Don’t assume that some serious thinkers in the Labour Party do not, like AB, regret the failure to establish the comprehensive principle throughout the UK educational system, as much for the reordering of levers in the social structure as much as for equality in educational provision.

  42. @Paul Bristol,

    “They are on course to be soundly beaten at the next election.”

    Maybe, maybe not. No one really knows yet, including polling experts.

  43. do not forget. even with a govt so unpopular, and a fresh leader, conservative share of the vote in 2010 was 35%

    the base is strong, but not expanding.
    like republicans in america, the right is solid, but stuck

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