An early release for Opinium’s fortnightly poll for the Observer today, already up on their website here. Topline figures are CON 29%(+1), LAB 36%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 17%(+1), the lowest Labour lead Opinium have shown for a couple of months. Full tabs are here.

In terms of other polls tonight, we have the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll, we’re also due the online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday, though we normally get some hints from John Rentoul or embargoed copies of it, so they may have changed their timetable for the Summer holidays.


80 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 29, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 17”

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  1. @BILLY BOB

    “A general election is like the Grand National… some people who never read the racing pages or vist a course, and don’t know the name of any trainer of jockey will take a punt on this one.

    They might also be the type of people who fall below the radar of polling companies and surveys. Their behaviour seems incomprehensible, but they do have their preferences, in the same way that they can be rather picky about newsreaders.

    I’m guessing that individual leader approval would be a rough guide as to how this group will split. Ordinarily it won’t make a great deal of difference unless there is a wide discrepancy, or unless the result is relatively close. In rare cases a politician becomes a generalised figure of ridicule and the dynamic spirals out of control.”

    ——————-

    Been enjoying your posts on party identification, and the Michigan model of which I was unaware. On the issue of leader approval, yes, it chimes with previous discussions about heuristics: for people who for whatever reason may not be up to speed on policies etc., but are still intent on voting, they may look for some shortcut in deciding, and party leaders may be a useful proxy to this end.

    The question is, of course: how many of these people are there?…

  2. @BLAZEAWAY
    “Have you been drinking StatGeek?”

    ————

    I dunno, it struck me as one of his more sober, lucid posts. Then again, he was quoting someone else and I was on the Pimms a bit earlier…

  3. YouGov for the ‘Elections in Wales’ blog: Labour’s support has increased by 12 per cent since the last election to 48 per cent.

    According to the blog run by the University of Cardiff Wales Governance Centre, if these figures were replicated at a Westminster Election the following seats would change hands:

    Aberconwy (LAB gain from CON)
    Arfon (LAB gain from PC)
    Brecon and Radnor (CON gain from LD)
    Cardiff Central (LAB gain from LD)
    Cardiff North (LAB gain from CON)
    Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (LAB gain from PC)
    Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
    (LAB gain from CON)
    Preseli Pembrokeshire (Lab gain from CON)
    Vale of Glamorgan (LAB gain from CON)

    Of possible relevance to the tell us your policies debate is the fact that Wales has the only incumbent UK Labour Government, pursuing a growth policy which has increased investment in the Principality by nearly 200% in the past year, creating some 4,000 jobs.

  4. Latest ST/YG
    Con 33%, Lab 41%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%; APP -28

    Labours VI at top end of VI but still nice to see.

  5. meant top end of moe of course.

  6. Morning Everyone,

    @R HUCKLE – must first apologise to you for questioning your prediction last night for the Sunday Times YouGov – I questioned your 40% when in fact it ended up being 41% – Uhmmm – Sorry – BUT you were also out with the Conservatives VI which ended up being 33% (31) – so all’s fair it would seem.
    Labours VI far too high of course and we should see this weeks polls settle down to a more average norm of between 36-39%
    However the Cons VI is quite regular now at 31-34%.
    So, all to play for as votes change hands over the summer!

  7. JimJam
    Yes indeedy re 8% Lab lead!
    0ff to foreign climes and out of lnternet range for a couple of weeks ,so will predict a slight widening of Lab lead,barely outside MOE of course.

  8. “@ Sine Nomine

    @R HUCKLE

    Thats an odd prediction

    Labour are slipping but you have put them back up to 40%

    Anyway we will soon find out and if I have to apologise to you I shall do! ”

    Waiting for apology !

    Labour 41%
    Tory 33%
    UKIP 10%
    LD 9%

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ubu9k3q6xe/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-09-110813.pdf

    My instinct is that the slip in Labour support may have reached its low point over the last few weeks and that in future it will start to average nearer to 40%. The reason I say this, is that the politics has been relatively quiet recently and most political/economic news has been positive for the Tories. Yes the LD’s are in government as well, but I don’t think they gain as much from this news. The LD’s only gain if they are seen to ensure that Liberal values are maintained. Labour have been a bit in the shadows, until the media picked up Burnhams recent comments.

    The Tories support may increase as well for a period to average 34% (ish), with UKIP down to below 10%. At the moment UKIP are not saying much and the Tories are trying to take up their ground e.g on immigration isues. There also appears to be a media campaign to highlight some of the UKIP MEP’s and candidates ‘non standard’ opinions, which may scare some voters.

    Going back to Labour, I think they will increase, because I sense that they have concentrated on what policies they will offer as an alternative. They will commit to making the changes to their party funding with a change in the relationship to the Unions. Ed Miliband is being watched to see if he can become a stronger leader and I think it is possible that from the Autumn that more people in polling will see him as an alternative PM. The problem for Labour is whether people trust them on economics and see Ed Balls as an alternative to George Osborne. This may hold Labour back and cost them a majority in 2015.

  9. “@ Sine Nomine

    Morning Everyone,

    @R HUCKLE – must first apologise to you for questioning your prediction last night for the Sunday Times YouGov – I questioned your 40% when in fact it ended up being 41% – Uhmmm – Sorry – BUT you were also out with the Conservatives VI which ended up being 33% (31) – so all’s fair it would seem.”

    Apology accepted !

    Yes I got the other parties wrong. Had not factored in the UKIP slip, with the Tories gaining slightly. Thought that the LD’s would be higher, but they seem to struggling at the moment.

  10. @carfrew

    Thanks for your post. I also was unaware of the Michigan model until the other night… skimmed a paper and now I can pose as an expert until someone finds me out. There was a post last week about party identification being more applicable to the US, apologies, I forget who it was from.

    Watched a few hours every night from the DNC in Charlotte last year, people like Deval Patrick, Julian Castro, Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Bill Clinton, Eva Longoria, Joe Biden… the better part of 150 high intensity performances. Democrat meetings in Rhode Island must be very different compared with, I don’t know, Chicago, but the party manages a trans-continental identity, with large doses of enthusiasm and razzle-dazzle.

    Atm BBC are reporting a full-blown crisis for Miliband… one lone voice (Hopi Sen) apparently is saying that Ed can still rescue the situation and go on to win the election. It doesn’t translate to the European situation but I would like to see an inclusive optimistic offering from Labour, rather than a timid response to wedge politics.

    Performance of the economy is the other leg of the tripod. The commentariat has a kind of thought ban on challenging Austerity… as John Pilgrim pointed out, until that breaks down Labour too will be held hostage.

  11. @Alec

    My view is that the two parties with the clearest and most logical stance on the EU remain the Greens and UKIP. I can respect both parties policies, whereas I find the other parties policies illogical and impenetrable.

    Is that because they are trying, to some extent, to be all things to all people and avoid alienating anyone? Personally, I think that Labour should be clearer about what it thinks, prouder of its achievements, and less interested in day to day movements in the polls. But that may not be good politics or an appropriate thing to say on a site like this.

  12. Just to show how steady the Labour lead is at 6 (ish):

    If you take the previous two poll leads, take that from 18, that is very likely to be the poll lead on the next poll or very close.

    The difference between this prediction and the actual lead for the last 9 polls is:

    -1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, -1, -1, -2

    I think we are on a position, as often said by some here, that about 38-40 % of voters likely vote have firmly decided that Conservative or Lib Dem is not an option in 2015 and will vote Labour. I objectively cannot conclude anything else, and do not believe that Labour’s vote will evaporate much any further under ordinary circumstances.

    If this remains solid (and I am think this is likely), then the question for Mr Cameron is where can he get the extra 7 % to 9 % on top of current circa 32 % to get close?

    Unless something really dramatic changes,

  13. Correction:

    Just to show how steady the Labour lead is at 6 (ish):

    If you take the previous two poll leads, take that from 18, that is very likely to be the poll lead on the next poll or very close.

    The difference between this prediction and the actual lead for the last 9 polls is:

    -1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, -1, -1, -2

    I think we are on a position, as often said by some here, that about 38-40 % of voters likely vote have firmly decided that Conservative or Lib Dem is not an option in 2015 and will vote Labour. I objectively cannot conclude anything else, and do not believe that Labour’s vote will evaporate much any further under ordinary circumstances.

    If this remains solid (and I am think this is likely), then the question for Mr Cameron is where can he get the extra 7 % to 9 % on top of current circa 32 % to get close?

  14. @Billy Bob

    Typical lightweight analysis-free political reporting from the BBC. I’ve been critical of the apparent torpor and timidity and unwillingness of Labour in terms of trying to reshape the political agenda. Yet it hardly helps when the BBC’s political reporting seems on a mission to ignore Labour’s contribution and focus only on its (still IMO quite limited) internal tensions and relations with the unions.

    As for Hopi Sen, he offers the recipe that you would expect from classic New Labour, at least in terms of its reporting this morning i.e.Miliband can rescue the situation by showing a commitment to austerity and taking on the unions. No thank you.

  15. @Alec

    Agree with you fully regarding the Greens and Europe/the EU.

  16. Re this morning’s polls.

    Labour can still get the occasional 41% after a prolonged poor period when it’s done next to nothing, allowing its opponents to set the terms of political debate while sowing confusion as to its own approach.

    The Conservatives shouldn’t get too complacent.

  17. CHARLES
    ” on the EU ………….. I find the other parties policies illogical and impenetrable.”

    The problem with defining or stating a policy on the EU is that much of it is now the outcome of a historical evolution, not the result of any one or collection of nations’ policy, except for its overall historic structure and some definable areas: the social market, workers’ rights including rights of women in the work place, regional structural funding to equalise economies, the CAP etc. But nobody legislated for the creation of a powerful Comission, and its tendenceis towards centralisation, or, of course, for the incompetence which the Commission exercises in specific aspects of the CAP and related structrural funding, and noone voted for Greece’s succumbing to this combination of vicious forcers. In the face of the intractability of the Commission and its separate domestic loyalites, the Council of Ministers is a toothless tiger, and the spotty presence of nationally and party nominated Commissioners is a cypher:
    So reform, and mainly clamping down on the Commission and on structural funding,, an ending of the CAP and fine-tuning of labour migration within and from outside the EU, are the only game in town. These will be more than enough for any incomeing Government to tackle alongside domestic post-economic crisis management. They would take more than one period in office for Labour, who I think are the most likely to carry through a participative rather than a separative reform, to carry out. The main issue for voters, though, is likely to be just that, and it is one which is likely to become clearer in EU manifesto statements: Labour looking for reform from inside the existing system, but with some major changes to funding and policy management; Conservatives wanting a reform which claws back as much funding and national trade and employment regulation and the control of international labour movement as they can extract.

  18. @Blazeaway

    I might have had a tipple or two last night. :)

    33%, 41% – Didn’t see that coming.

  19. @Phil Haines

    Polls seem to be showing UKIP/Con still with the edge on certainty-to-vote, an improved rating for Labour, and LD lagging.

    Ok, New Labour never was God’s gift, but imo continually and completely trashing the record plays into Conservative hands, at least with some important sections of the electorate.

    If the lead is tight by the time of the GE then a lot will depend on and improved turnout for Labour in opposition, as opposed to Labour as governing party.

  20. @Statgeek

    I might have had a tipple or two last night. :)

    33%, 41% – Didn’t see that coming.

    I look at data through the eyes of process control, normal variation and special variation etc.

    When you do this, the innate randomness of data becomes very clear, and such results as 33 to 41 are entirely expected and totally normal.

  21. @Sine Nomine

    “My Prediction for Sunday Times YouGov is: Con 34, Lab 37, LD 11, UKIP 11”

    Actual: Con 33, Lab 41, LD 9, UKIP 10.

    Sine Nomine: “Labours VI far too high of course.”

    “Of course”. I don’t know why we bother with the opinion polls we should just ask you. It would be much more accurate.

  22. Re: the Labour ‘crisis’. Yes, as Bob Paisley is once reported to have said after Liverpool drew a game they were expected to win ‘Yes, here we are in crisis at the top of the league’.

  23. @ Phil Haines,

    Labour can still get the occasional 41% after a prolonged poor period when it’s done next to nothing, allowing its opponents to set the terms of political debate while sowing confusion as to its own approach.

    The Conservatives shouldn’t get too complacent.

    Like I’ve been saying all along, Cameron needs to save a plucky British colony from a wicked foreign power. Maybe Gibraltar?

  24. nbeale

    “Looks as though the Labour Lead is steadily evaporating – let’s see what happens.”

    Very wise words: let’s.

  25. What’s significant and what should be worrying the Tories is that they haven’t led a poll since early 2012. The size of the Labour lead seems pretty irrelevant since they only need a lead of one or two points to win.

    I suspect we’ll actually have some more to talk about once conference season gets underway, though the Tory membership numbers might mean they hold theirs in a village hall.

  26. Re the contrast in Lab/Con apparent activity this summer – a poster the other day said less can be more; you know I think they may have a point.

  27. Good Morning All.
    Labour’s VI surprisingly holding up given the lack of policy, or maybe this is due to the lack of policy and exposure to the leadership team.

  28. @MrNameless

    Governments have been further behind at this stage of the electoral cycle and come back to win.

    What seems different is that the opposition is relatively united, Scotland has a nationist party doing well under devolution, Labour are doing well in Wales and in England the only non-government parties to get significant support are Labour and UKIP. Supporting Labour or UKIP directly damages the Conservatives in a pincer movement.

    Mr Crosby has his work cut out…..

  29. It really is astounding how hard Labour aren’t trying right now, though.

    Actually, I get the impression that all the parties are competing to lose the next election. The Conservatives sabotaged the boundary reforms that would have leveled the electoral playing field for them and are now running an ad campaign to make sure that anyone who wouldn’t vote for them in 2005 won’t consider doing so in 2015 either. Labour have gone into hiding so we can’t be persuaded by their arguments even if we want to be. The success of the Lib Dem crusade to lose friends and alienate people goes without saying, and Clegg is planning to double down on all his most unpopular policies at Conference. Even Ukip seem to be launching a campaign to dissuade people from treating them like a serious political party instead of a carful of racist clowns.

    You have to say this for the nationalists- whatever you think of their policies, at least they seem like they want power.

  30. Phil Haines
    “The Conservatives shouldn’t get too complacent.”

    An odd comment on a board on which at least half a dozen contributors consider that Labour has it in the bag. Me thinks that the reds are being complacent, although I doubt that will be true at the centre of the party. 18 months to an election and Labour are about 5-7 points ahead with the Tories only having lost about 3 points from their 2010 GE result.

    The closer we get to the GE, the closer these polls are likely to go. It always happens. EM must be under tremendous pressure to have a re-shuffle. I agree with Ann that Balls & Byrne should go but I rather like Twiggy. He’s quite a sweet little chappy.

    BILLYBOB

    “Ok, New Labour never was God’s gift, but imo continually and completely trashing the record plays into Conservative hands, at least with some important sections of the electorate.”

    I agree with the 2nd half of the sentence but as New Labour won 3 successive GE’s, I can’t agree that it wasn’t Gods gift. Blair was the Messiah that Labour needed & he delivered. Rubbish it all if you like but I bet EM will not win 3 in a row. If he can win one he will be punching above his weight.

    There is still everything to play for on both sides, with the improvements in the economy, which look as if they are starting to happen, more likely to favour the blues.

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