Populus’s Friday poll is out and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9%. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov voting intention poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. Full tabs are here.


186 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. NEILA

    It probably depends on how much parliamentary tv you watch-particularly Select Committee sessions.

    I would recognise 33 of them-and at least half of those count as talented in my book.

  2. turk

    “Any Georgian house left are full of champange socialists”

    Bizarre.

    [And it is “champagne” – you’re probably thinking of blancmange.]

  3. Why can’t socialists drink champagne, are Tories not allowed to drink beer?

  4. JOHN

    I think there is a danger in looking for a read across on those subsidiary questions. They don’t seem to be necessarily answered holistically-as an interconnected group.

    From yesterday’s YG Poll-and in order of decreasing strength of opinion -people thought the cuts were :_

    Impacting my life. (net 30)
    Unfair (net 29)
    Too quick & too deep ( net 27 )
    Necessary ( net 25)
    Labour’s responsibility (net 9)
    Bad for the economy ( net 5)

  5. Paulcroft

    No in my house it’s champange, I can’t afford the real thing not like you old lefties.

  6. RiN

    Well we all know that the epithet is designed to say that anyone earning over twice the minimum wage must be totally insincere about caring about the disadvantaged.

    Like all such epithets it is pathetic.

  7. PAUL CROFT

    @”Well we all know that the epithet is designed to say that anyone earning over twice the minimum wage must be totally insincere about caring about the disadvantaged.”

    I’ll have to check-but I thought that only applied to Conservatives ( or “Tories” , which adds that frisson of disdain)

  8. Some updated charts:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/vilead.png

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/madlead.png

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/30poll.png

    All giving a good indication of the lead squeeze.

  9. Hmm… out of Colin’s list I can recognise maybe 40ish?

    And I rate Blackwood, Crouch, Cairns, Eustice, Goldsmith, Halfon, and Wollaston (and let’s throw in Rees-Mogg for entertainment value). So that’s just 8/40. Admittedly I’m predisposed to dislike them all because of their political views, but probably no more than Neil is with the 2010 Labour intake.

    Notably I don’t think any of my eight have seen preferment, and out of that group Cairns and Halfon are doomed at the next election and all the others except Wollaston may be vulnerable depending on what happens with tactical voting and Ukip. So by our new metric of “Does a random supporter of an opposing party feel your party will be led by impressive people in the near future?” I’d have to say the Tories aren’t doing too well.

  10. SPEARMINT

    AS you say-recognising is apolitical-but “rating” is highly subjective.

    Depends what you are looking for.

  11. Mind you I’m not sure I’d agree with Neil either, because the Labour benches (and shadow ministry) are encumbered with some staggeringly useless MPs. In fact, if you encounter an MP unable to accomplish basic parliamentary tasks (ie. standing up and reading out a question without making a complete fool of themselves), I regretfully have to admit that the odds are they’re Labour. As far as the 2010 intake are concerned Creasy and Owen Smith are very impressive, but I’m not a big fan of Ummuna or Reeves… And some of the other people widely billed as rising stars don’t even bear thinking about.

  12. @ Colin,

    Efficacy, integrity and signs of intelligent life, mostly.

    (Tracey Crouch is obviously not on that list because I agree with her views!)

  13. Nice early Observer/Opinion today:

    Lab 36 Con 29 LD 9 UKIP 17

  14. That’s Labour down 3, everyone else up 1

  15. Those figures from Observer/Opinion, if put into the Swingometer on this site, predict a Labour majority of 84 – exactly the same, by chance or otherwise, as was already showing on the uniform swing projection.

    Obviously there is no way of entering the high UKIP figure on the swingometer. It would simply be counted as “others”, and quite possibly would result in no UKIP MPs being elected in an actual election.

  16. SPEARMINT

    @”Efficacy, integrity and signs of intelligent life, mostly.”

    Yes-of course.

    But one’s own political position is a factor in the relative appeal of any MP.

  17. Any political party needs to be clear as to what it stands for, in terms of core values and also its general approach to the economy, regardless of whether or not it yet has a clear program for government in the form of detailed policies. Labour’s problem is that there’s increasing confusion about what it stands for, not least since signing up for the coalition’s 2016/17 spending plans. In the absence of the definition of a few key themes allow its values to be defined maliciously by its opponents.

    Owen Jones put it well in this article:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/i-know-its-the-summer-holidays-ed-but-what-is-labours-message-8745341.html

  18. Alister – on a uniform swing 17% for UKIP would definitely result in no seats.

  19. That should be
    “The absence of a few key themes allow its values to be defined maliciously by its opponents.”

  20. 6 weeks to the Norwegian election, centre party campaign started today, looking to hold on to their place in govt but it’s unlikely. The big question is are we going to have a pure blue blue govt or will høyre(conservetive) and Fremskrittspartiet(ukip type party) need help from kristelig folkeparti(christian party) or Venstre(liberals). After 8 years of red/green govt it seems certain we will be taking a turn to the right

  21. “Fremskrittspartiet”

    No wonder Norwegian is a foreign language. UKIP is long enough here.

  22. Why do you think that is Richard ?


  23. COLIN

    PAUL CROFT

    @”Well we all know that the epithet is designed to say that anyone earning over twice the minimum wage must be totally insincere about caring about the disadvantaged.”

    I’ll have to check-but I thought that only applied to Conservatives ( or “Tories” , which adds that frisson of disdain) ”

    No, not really “Champange*** Socialists” is rarely aimed at yer Toff’s party.

    *** As invented by Mr Turk – A mixture of Apple Cider and Blancmange I believe. At 50p a itre it’s very good value and can also be used to run a tractor.

  24. @ANTHONY WELLS

    “…Alister – on a uniform swing 17% for UKIP would definitely result in no seats…”

    Yes, but it’s not going to be…:-) Charlie don’t surf, and Nigel don’t climb: kippers don’t go above 100ft for reasons previously discussed here. Given their vote concentration on the southern lowlands, they’re bound to pick up at least one seat with 17%, methinks

    rgdsm

  25. PAUL
    “Well we all know that the epithet is designed to say that anyone earning over twice the minimum wage must be totally insincere about caring about the disadvantaged.”

    I didn’t think if meant that, Paul – rather that they have the cheek to enjoy the good life – two jags, a university education and a Georgian town house – so don’t deserve the additional pleasures of giving a damn and fighting injustice or standing for Parliament. I’m afraid, if taken seriously, it would rule out a lot of the Labour Party, but it isn;t.

  26. Colin

    I assume you mean why the country is moving to the right, to be honest I’m not sure, of course the Labour dominated govt has been in for 8 years so there is a time for a little feeling, indeed as far as I can gather the last 8 years have been very stable politically after a period where instability was the norm. Of course there really isn’t anywhere else to go but rightward if the voters want a change. Economically the country is in good shape, at least it’s not really an election issue, it could be said that the left would be doing better if the economy was doing worse because I’m not sure how much trust folk have in the economic credentials ofthe FRP. But there is a general feeling that in the world’s richest land we shouldn’t have to pay such high taxes and we should have better services particular in care of the elderly and of course immigration is an issue

  27. Phil Haines

    I don’t expect you to agree for one moment, but I read that article by Owen Jones It reminded me of political comment’s from the Daily Mail, completely biased one sided vindictive piece of nonsense both against the Tory party and Ed Miliband and his political strategy.

    I was suprised to read that in the Independant who’s journalist’s usually give a considered opinion even though I might not agree with the content, it’s usually worth a read to get a counter argument from my own views, but that piece from Jones had precious little balance about anybody other than Burnham, but maybe that was his message to Labour “you picked the wrong man”. Whatever his reasons Jones would be at home writing for the mail or sun with that effort.

  28. RICHARD

    THanks.

    Just been reading press analysis.

    Looks like discontent with health & other services given the high taxes-Better management / returns from the Sovereign Wealth Fund-and too much state involvement/ interference in the industrial base.

    I was struck by this quote :-

    “. “When the government owns 35% of the value of the Oslo Stock Exchange, it’s a too dominant player in the Norwegian business sector,”
    Erna Solberg .

    Looks like you could be in for a round of privatisation Richard !!

  29. I have never understood why anyone takes Owen Jones seriously.

    His writing, & his persona on tv remind me of Wolfie Smith. His family background appears to confirm the political similarity.

  30. Paulcroft

    We make cider from our small Orchard (sweet coppin) very nice just enough to make about 4 barrels (144 gallons 3.4%) no charge, free to our friends and visitors.
    Not sure it would run our tractors, but it run’s a couple of barn dances every year.

  31. Reposted due to auto mod

    Colin

    We had a round of privatization 10 years ago and went from having the cheapest electricity in Europe to having some of the most expensive. Because the private firms found that they could sell cheap Norwegian electricity to Europe in the summer when the reservoirs were full and buy expensive electricity from Europe in the winter and just pass the costs on to the consumer. But that quote from Erna is worrying because a lot of the stock exchange is the state owned oil company which I know that FRP want to privatize to fund tax cuts(sounds familiar?) But I thought that the conservatives had more sense and would keep the folks in the FTP in line

  32. Colin

    I have a post to you in auto mod, no idea why, it should pop out later

  33. turk

    sounds really nice – give me your address and I won’t tell anyone else here.

  34. At0Brissle Balloon festival,lots of zider,some champagne,lots of fun!

  35. COLIN
    “I think there is a danger in looking for a read across on those subsidiary questions. They don’t seem to be necessarily answered holistically-as an interconnected group.”

    On the other hand, AW’s graphology is itself a read across the subsidiary databases. I would find it worth while, perhaps not in a comparison with hostage empathy, but as you put it holistic, or perhaps as zeitgeist, whether and how all these responses (none of which is incompatible with another) enter into a general consensus – that of putting up with austerity and cuts and looking for any merit in them – pruning, catharsis, a clearing of the decks, a reculer pour mieux sauter – while waiting for a new start and specifically for investment in growth.

    Re China’s “ghost cities” I suspect the evidence in the end is highly subject to interpretation. With very high city growth rates based on rural to urban migration – actual not planned, would you not expect massive city housing construction in advance, and, if you could afford, to build the infrastructure as well as the housing?
    What’s the difference with waiting a couple of decades for Centre Point to be let;. I’ld like to see more data about the take up of housing and growth of city services, commerce and industry before I’ld criticise China, with its massive demographic and economic needs and pressures, for buidling ahead, and with its local government systems having to plan and operate on the scale of medium sized European countries. Spanish white elephant investments have no relevance to this.

    BTW. Forensic Asia Limited, who put these photos of “ghost cities” on the web with their own read of what they mean, might merit some scrutiny. A search of their publications shows a couple of house articles by “Dr Jim and me” in Sept and Oct 2010, and zilch thereafter.

  36. COLIN
    FAL are a securities investment adviser group, and the ghost cities web is their headliner demonstration of their brand “forensic” approach to basing securities on hard researched data, in this case on China construction and related urban growth investment; except that the data, in a universe of China’s size and diversity is, I suggest, cherry picked and out of context; fruity but low-hanging, I think.

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