This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. The eight point Labour lead is the largest YouGov have shown for about three weeks, though given the normal margin of error, if the average lead is six points an eight point lead is no more unusual than the four point lead we saw earlier on this week. Full tabs are here.


128 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 31, LAB 39, LD 11, UKIP 11”

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  1. Chris Riley,

    I think you’re right, although it’s too dry a subject to be much of a talking point in the news. There is no prospect whatever of the Conservatives romping home with a huge majority in 2015, so the best they can do is scrape a Major-level majority at best. If, after that, a bit economic crisis or something happens, they may well be finished for a generation.

  2. @Amber Star

    Your posts are never boring. It would be interesting to know how auto-mod operates… weeks can go by it seems, then all of a sudden it gets the hebejeebies and pounces on post after post!

  3. MRNameless

    “A big economic crises or something happens, they may well be finished for a generation”.

    Could just as well be Labours epitaph.

  4. Turk

    Normally people blame the Government not the opposition.

    A bit of a kerfuffle brewing over the Traditional Britain Group’s annual dinner in May, MP Jacob Rees-Mogg the right wing Tory MP was Guest of Honour

    The group’s Facebook page calls for Doreen Lawrence, the mother of murdered black teenager Stephen Lawrence, and “millions of others” to be “requested to return to their natural homelands”
    It further says that Mrs Lawrence elevation to the peerage as a a “monstrous disgrace”

    To Mr Moggs Credit he has disavowed the suggestion saying:

    “I clearly made a mistake. I think the postings that we’ve recently seen are so deeply disgraceful and shocking that they have no place in decent political debate.

    “Mrs Lawrence is a wonderful and courageous woman who has contributed to British public life and, in any traditional view of Conservatism, she should be lauded for what she has done.”

    Mr Rees-Mogg added; “I clearly didn’t do enough work to look into what they [the TBG] believed in.”

    TBG denies being a far-right group.

    In a separate but related issue which also appears to drag the conservative party into the racism row a scheme which saw vans drive through London calling on illegal immigrants to leave is to be investigated by the advertising watchdog.

    In a statement, the ASA said complainants had expressed concerns that the advert, in particular the phrase “go home”, was offensive and irresponsible.

    It said complainants were concerned this was “reminiscent of slogans used by racist groups to attack immigrants in the past and could incite or exacerbate racial hatred and tensions in multicultural communities”.

    Liberal Democrat Business Secretary Vince Cable said the scheme was “stupid and offensive”

  5. Again people say, ”The Labour lead is narrowing.” But Labour’s own VI remains constant, despite all the caveats about margins of error, and all that changes are the relative positions of the Tories and UKIP. Optimism on the right depends on the Tories hi-jacking almost all of the UKIP VI and Labour shooting itself miraculously effectively in the foot – explaining, I guess, the irritation bordering on anger expressed at Labour’s silence on policy!
    I am disturbed by Labour’s silence because I fear the attempts being made by the right to create positions (on the NHS, for example) which cannot be undone in a hurry. The constancy of the Labour VI, however, suggests to me that there is quite a solid moral vote in play here, i.e. a sizeable number of people are objecting to the morality of what the Conservatives are doing and will not contemplate voting for them again whatever policies the Labour party eventually put forward (within reason, of course!)

  6. @ Billy Bob

    Thank you, you are too kind! :-)

  7. @ Chris Riley,

    I think the really significant political and polling event unfolding is the ongoing concern about Conservative membership figures.

    I think the fact that Tories have recovered in YouGov to the point where the Sun is no longer bothering to pre-tweet 4 point leads is at least noteworthy.

    The membership crisis is interesting too, but honestly, whichever party loses the next election will face a possibly existential internal crisis. If the Tories lose it’s going to be all out war between the Boneheads and the Cameroons. Their parlous demographic situation will be the least of their problems. And if Labour lose the Blairites will say it’s because Miliband was too left wing and get into an 1981-style battle with the trade unionists for the soul of the party. We even have a bitter ex-foreign secretary named David to lead the charge.

    Although the Tories are uniquely in a position where winning may be even worse for the party than losing, because it would force Cameron to take a position on the EU referendum and whichever option he picks will alienate half the party (and worse, half their donors).

  8. TBG in another posting described Chuka Umunna the English born (Irish Mother) Labour MP as “Nigerian” and Tory MP Nadhim Zahawi who was admittedly born in Bhaghdad but has lived in the UK since a child as “foreign”.
    Zahawi’s family fled Iraq during Saddam Hussein’s rise to power

  9. Turk –

    Absolutely. Whichever party wins in 2015 is going to have a big problem if any sort of crisis happens and they haven’t the membership.

  10. Spearmint –

    You’ve just made me think of David Owen, which is unpleasant. Thanks for that.

    Yes, I’m quite surprised there’s actually so much unity in Labour, given what happened in 2010. I think, unlike 1981, they’ve got their priorities right and are focused on getting rid of the Tories.

    Still, at least we probably won’t see another SDP. Five-party politics would be a mess.

  11. @ Colin Davis,

    Not to mention it suggests someone thought that having the entire Shadow Cabinet vanish for three months was a good political strategy. This does not fill me with confidence for their general election campaign.

    (Although the Guardian suggested recently that they’re floating Rachel Reeves or Owen Smith for campaign coordinator, which is promising. I have no idea whether they know how to run a campaign, but they’ve been very competent shadow ministers.

    And a bit of hilarity for us, from the article:

    “Owen Smith, although less high-profile, has impressed the Miliband office with strong performances in the Commons and is loyal to the party leader. His constituency majority is only 2,700, so he would need to nurse his seat.”

    I think someone doesn’t understand where Pontypridd is!)

  12. @ Mr. Nameless,

    Sorry. That was very cruel of me.

  13. I’m not sure if parties really need that many members- it is the active ones that matter. I guess memberships dropping will also be a symptom of less active members or maybe the active ones are constant?

    I have to say that in my time I was active in politics and also just being on the receiving end of knocks on doors the Tories always appeared the least active even when living in a Tory v Lib Dem battleground. Lib Dems definitely the most active (at least where they were contesting). It could explain why a lot of marginals appear not to have gone so well for the Tories in recent elections.

    To give an example of what difference activism can make the ward I used to be in was won by the Lib Dems at local level and assumed to be won (estimated from what we saw at the count) by Tories at General Election and Labour at Euro elections. You could explain some of this away by local popularity of a particular candidate but not all of it. Lab knew they could win the Euros and campaigned hard whereas Lib Dems did not.

  14. New thread :-)

  15. AMBER

    @”Very, very few in China can drive or have a license.”

    “The number of people licensed to drive cars in China has exceeded 200 million, an increase of 26.47 million year on year, according to the Ministry of Public Security statistics on Wednesday.

    The statistics showed that there were 240 million automobiles on the roads by the end of 2012, and a total of 260 million license holders of all types of vehicles, including motorcycles.”

    China Peoples Daily.
    Jan. 2013

    China has 96,200km of “major highways / expressways)-ahead of USA with 75,200 km.

    Wikipedia.

  16. @ Mr Nameless (12.27)

    “Still, at least we probably won’t see another SDP. Five-party politics would be a mess.”

    It is not beyond the realms of possibility that an SDP type party could be formed. If, Clegg survives after 2015 and as some in the LDs are suggesting, he takes the party further right, then I can see a major split in the LDs with the formation of a centre-left party. IMO this could mop up most of the 13% (24 – 11) that the party has lost since 2010 and take perhaps another third or more of remaining LDs.

    I for one would jump at the possibility of joining an SDP type party.

  17. There were 96,800 fuel stations in China in 2008

    Research in China .com

    This is 80% of the number in USA.

  18. 99.7% of the Chinese population have access to electricity.

    World Bank
    2008/2012

  19. @ Colin

    Highways figures which you give are planned, not actual. Fuel stations are planned not actual & many that do exist don’t have fuel.

  20. “By the end of the first quarter of 2009, about 1,888,374,100 (1.89 billion) bank cards had been issued in China. Of these cards, 1,737,901,000 (1.74 billion) or 92% were debit cards, while the rest (150,473,100, or 150.5 million) were credit cards. In 2010 China had over 2.4 billion bankcards in circulation growing approximately 16% from the end of 2009.
    At the end of 2008, China had approximately 1.84 million POS machines and 167,500 ATMs. About 1.18 million merchants in China accept banking cards.”

    Wikipedia

  21. AMBER

    nope.

  22. Probably in the cities that were built, where no one lives… the ghost cities

  23. @ Colin

    Not ‘domestic’ electricity like we have here.

    Towns & villages away from the main population centres have localized power from renewables. It is used by government & communal buildings which the people have access to. It is intermittent & is not available in people’s homes.

    Do you really think that I am less capable than you of reading Wiki entries?

    However, I am glad that you are now in favour of a centrally planned economy given that you believe wholeheartedly in the achievements of China. Given that there are rural homes in the UK which use generators & whole areas which don’t have high speed broadband, we should probably allow the Chinese government to take a bow because their system is clearly superior to ours.

    Their achievements have been extraordinary – but they not geared towards creating a nation of consumers; they are geared towards creating a nation which can feed itself! And I wish them every success in that endeavour.

  24. ZIP codes:-

    Localities:-
    USA 35,970
    China 32,930

    Unique Zip Codes:-
    USA 41,599
    China 33,323

  25. AMBER

    @”However, I am glad that you are now in favour of a centrally planned economy given that you believe wholeheartedly in the achievements of China.”

    I can spot your non-sequiturs I’m afraid.

    @”Their achievements have been extraordinary – but they not geared towards creating a nation of consumers;”

    They have indeed-and I disagree entirely with you about the reason for the switch in economic policy.

    I have one caveat to my admiration for China’s efforts ( flawed as they now see them to have been) to build a sustainable economy based on a burgeoning middle class.

    The recent crackdown on & arrests of members of The New Citizen movement show that the CCP has no intention of letting anyone else define the nature & meaning of “freedom” in China .

    Ultimately the CCP will face the final dilemma-you cannot have both an educated, aspirational middle class and authoritarian government.

    ……….meanwhile I find the comparisons , contrasts -& similarities between China’s economic policies & those of western democracies endlessly fascinating.

    I am particularly amused by the contrast with Western politicians who pull levers which are sometimes connected to nothing-or simply malfunction-and the Totalitarian levers available to the CCP which impose handbrake turns on a whole country.

    Still-at least we can laugh at our lever pullers, without being arrested !

  26. JIM

    Great link.

    This is what they are trying to correct-Infrastructure spending gone mad-Spain & RoI with knobs on.

    Many party officials, and businessmen have made a pile of money from it all. Corruption everywhere.

    Xi Jinping has got one helluva job on to bring all that to a grinding halt -and still get minimum 7% pa growth.

  27. new thread

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