Populus’s latest poll is out and has topline figures of CON 29%(-5), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 12%(+4). Changes are from Monday and of course, while they could in theory suggest a sudden large shift from the Conservatives back to UKIP, just as likely they reflect normal random sample variation. The great benefit of high frequency polling is that we only have to wait until Populus’s next poll on Monday to find out. Full tabs are here

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun is much more typical of their recent polls, showing topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%. Full tabs here


231 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. I look more like a darker version of Jenkins but I think I would prefer Gandhi!

  2. What I found quite interesting was the dk figure being at 16% of whixh a large proportion were previously lib dems in 2010 and ls a large proportion are women as well a 6% lead for labour with a possible unwinding of ukip don’t kniws choosing their horse and a slight recovery in the lib dem vote could wellsspell disaster at 2015. Without a doubt all to play for still

  3. I can’t understand why I only came out 72% secular. All my answers to the religious questions were of the 100% variety.

  4. Did you emphasise them?

  5. Interesting test. Apparently I am a neo-conservative.

    Now the girlfriend is giving it a try…

  6. and she is a Social Democratic Cosmopolitan. great combination…

  7. Hmm, I’m a “capitalist” apparentely. No surprises there, though I’m amused that there’s 1% of us.

    High on cosmopolitianism, secularism, anarchism, capitalism and anthropocentrism.

  8. Apparently I’m an authoritarian socialist. Who’d a thunk it, eh?

    Oh, well. I’m off to my Lib Dem regional action day.

  9. Just did the political compass and sit pretty close to the Dia Lama. I wonder how I’d look in orange?

    I am a fair bit away from where they put the SNP and closest to Labour in 1972, whatever that means.

    Peter.

  10. We should all Agee to do the same test and post our scores so that Statgeek can do a chart for us!

    Peter.

  11. Peter Cairns,

    “I wonder how I’d look in orange?”

    – Watch out, people might think you’re a Lib Dem.

  12. Or a member of the Orange Order. Or a Lib Dem member of the Orange Order.

  13. I’d love to see that. A middle class woolly liberal stuck at the back of the march with a placard saying “can’t we all get along?”

  14. I am not going to do one of those tests again, just in case I am found to be to the left of Bob Crowe !!!!!!

  15. Huckle
    Speaking as the resident Gandhi do the test be happy in your own self.

    Personally I doubt Bob Crowe would come out very left wing perfect example of the Free market in Action is Bob

  16. I come in at -0.62 and -1.38.

    More or less centrist, with a slight Left/Libertarian slant.

    (From a party political view I’d say I am about 65% Tory, 30% LibDem and 5% UKIP. I suspect my views on one or two key issues – such as capital punishment – push me “leftwards”)

  17. @r huckle,

    I know what you mean though, I was worried I might come out right of Ghengis Khan, despite seeing myself as a progressive compassionate conservative. lol

    Rich

  18. Economic Left/Right: -6.50
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.23

    On their chart I make Gandhi look like Thatcher.

  19. I’ve just got :

    Your political compass
    Economic Left/Right: -8.50
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.95

    Very left wing, and close anarchist.

    Sounds about right :)

  20. @Jeff thanks for making me look centrist ;)

  21. @Wes

    No problem :)

  22. I seem to remember doing one of these before on UKPR.

    Political Compass:-
    Economic -2.0
    Social -1.69

    Political Test:-
    All middle of the road except –
    43% secular
    22% capitalist
    24% pacifist
    26% ecological

    I think the question are way too simplified & don’t allow enough nuance on each topic.

  23. Taking both tests (http://www.politicaltest.net/ and http://www.politicalcompass.org/index )and translating the axes so they match, we see that I am:-

    -1.3 economic left (-10 is extreme left, 10 is extreme right)
    -3.7 libertarian (-10 is extreme libertarian, 10 is extreme authoritarian)
    -2.7 cosmopolitan (-10 is extreme cosmopolitan, 10 is extreme nationalistic)
    -5.1 secular (-10 is extreme secular, 10 is extreme fundamentalist)
    -2.6 visionary (-10 is extreme visionary, 10 is extreme reactionary)
    -1.8 anarchistic (-10 is extreme anarchistic, 10 is extreme authoritarian)
    +0.4 capitalistic (-10 is extreme communistic, 10 is extreme capitalistic)
    +0.3 militaristic (-10 is extreme pacifist, 10 is extreme militaristic)
    +3.7 anthropocentric (-10 is extreme ecological, 10 is extreme anthropocentric)

    So I am a Liberal Cosmopolitan. If we strip away all scores within +/- 2.5 we see that I am libertarian, cosmopolitan, secular, visionary, and anthropocentric. Oh, God…:-((

  24. Taking both tests (politicaltest dot net and politicalcompass dot org) and translating the axes so they match, we see that I am:-

    -1.3 economic left (-10 is extreme left, 10 is extreme right)
    -3.7 libertarian (-10 is extreme libertarian, 10 is extreme authoritarian)
    -2.7 cosmopolitan (-10 is extreme cosmopolitan, 10 is extreme nationalistic)
    -5.1 secular (-10 is extreme secular, 10 is extreme fundamentalist)
    -2.6 visionary (-10 is extreme visionary, 10 is extreme reactionary)
    -1.8 anarchistic (-10 is extreme anarchistic, 10 is extreme authoritarian)
    +0.4 capitalistic (-10 is extreme communistic, 10 is extreme capitalistic)
    +0.3 militaristic (-10 is extreme pacifist, 10 is extreme militaristic)
    +3.7 anthropocentric (-10 is extreme ecological, 10 is extreme anthropocentric)

    So I am a Liberal Cosmopolitan. If we strip away all scores within +/- 2.5 we see that I am libertarian, cosmopolitan, secular, visionary, and anthropocentric. Oh, God…:-((

    rgdsm

  25. Not to be too picky, but shouldn’t the opposite of secular be theocratic? Technically one could be fundamentalist and still secular.

  26. YESSSSS!

    rgdsm

  27. Colin

    It clearly wasn’t working right!

    Mr Nameless scores +5 on the Pedantic scale
    Anthony Have a go you know you want to!

  28. @MRNAMELESS

    “…Not to be too picky, but shouldn’t the opposite of secular be theocratic? Technically one could be fundamentalist and still secular…”

    Hmmm. You’ve got a good point there…:-)

    rgdsm

  29. In my opinion what these tests reveal is that we are all more complicated than what each type of politics represents. The political parties are just convenient vessels for people to identify themselves with more than the alternatives. There is not a lot of difference between many Labour, Lib Dem and Tory MP’s, in regard to most of the policies they follow. Any differences are fairly nuanced. Go back more than 30 years and you will find much more difference between the parties.

  30. Huckle you are right particularly when it comes to economic orthodoxy.

    Shame they got it wrong!

  31. New prediction from Electoral calculus: 84% probability of Labour majority, majority estimated at 90 seats. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

  32. “@ STEVE

    Huckle you are right particularly when it comes to economic orthodoxy.

    Shame they got it wrong! ”

    You would have to explain where it went wrong and what alternative plan you would have followed.

    Remember that the UK is a small island nation of 63 million people. We punch above our weight to some extent, because of our history with the city of London and our trading relationships with the rest of the world. #

    Due to the growth of countries with greater resources ( people, land and natural) the UK will struggle to compete. This is why wages are frozen and in real terms they are only on par with wages in the 1970’s. If wages are low, but costs of buying things like houses and cars increase, then borrowing goes up. Governments borrow money, because they won’t increases taxes or cut public spending in real terms, as politically it would be suicidal.

  33. STEVE

    I always come out marginally centre left on these things -but as I say , the questions aren’t detailed enough in my view.
    If you are middle of the road , it can come out either side.

  34. Is this really going to fly in a UK GE?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZmcyHpG31A#at=426

  35. I always get the feeling that the axis is set for the US market.

    Pretty much all of UK politics counts as “left wing” to an American.

  36. I dunno, specifically on immigration we’re much to the right of the USA.

  37. @Neil A
    You’re right. It is a parochial test that sorts participants into groups relevant to the American scene. But it isn’t the centring of the test that is US specific, the conception seems specific too. It is based on the idea that politics is an expression of personal identity and individuality – that’s not how I feel about politics.

  38. If Messina really is going to collect that volume of data, some Polling Company is going to make a lot of money-wonder which ?

  39. @MrNameless,

    There you go again. Assuming that immigration is a “left/right” issue.

  40. Some of the Politicaltest questions read as if they have been translated from another language (I don’t mean American English).

    I also found it amusing that one of the options for the Age question at the beginning was “not sure”.

  41. POSTAGE INCLUDED

    @” It is based on the idea that politics is an expression of personal identity and individuality”

    I had the feeling that it was the other way round-which is why I think there are nowhere near enough questions to cover the nuances & gradations of opinion which make up
    a person’s “identity”.
    To try an distill these few opinions into a political inclination is very crude, leaving aside the left/right calibration used to give the result.

  42. Huckle
    l I would risk getting snipped again if I went into one.

    But the economic orthodoxy that says everything is better in the hands of the private sector including power and public transport and banking is what I was referring to along with trickle down wealth generation and I wasn’t simply referring to the UK’s experience.

    By the way in line with my Gandhi /Social Democrat status I think some things are better done in the private sector.

  43. “@ COLIN

    If Messina really is going to collect that volume of data, some Polling Company is going to make a lot of money-wonder which ? ”

    I think UK elections are much more difficult, because of our system with more candidates, a fickle electorate and dislike for negative campaigning. In the US it is easier because it is a choice between two people or parties. They can get away with trashing the other candidate, with a pliant media.

  44. Messina – The Tories are rumoured to be paying £1M to take this American campaign manager up the learning curve of UK politics!

  45. I find it scary, it’s like the nsa stuff but instead of the state security it’s the political parties. I feel like it’s all about manipulation rather than ideas and values

  46. The hiring of Jim Messina… who will continue to be US based, advising Schapps, Crosby and Feldman… is being reported as a coup which has left Labour and Ed Miliband reeling.

    Labour has already secured the services of Blue State Digital, which has a Dean pedigree and a number of Obama staffers on the payroll. Mathew McGregor has a background in Labour politics, headed up Obama’s rapid response unit in 2012, and started work at the London office in April.

  47. They’ve also got Arnie Graf, veteran community organiser, to try to energise the base. Time will tell, but given the Tories have Saatchi and Saatchi on board and still haven’t won an election for twenty years, I don’t know that the propagandists the parties hire will make tremendous amounts of difference.

  48. This is on Con Home posted 20 min ago

    Survation for The Mail on Sunday – Voting Intention (Change since July 13th) CON 28% (NC) LAB 36% (NC) UKIP 18% (-2) LD 11% (+2) AP 7% (NC)

  49. Interesting. Or, actually, interesting that it’s not interesting. Very little movement, although that apparent UKIP-LD shift is odd.

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