Populus’s latest poll is out and has topline figures of CON 29%(-5), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 12%(+4). Changes are from Monday and of course, while they could in theory suggest a sudden large shift from the Conservatives back to UKIP, just as likely they reflect normal random sample variation. The great benefit of high frequency polling is that we only have to wait until Populus’s next poll on Monday to find out. Full tabs are here

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun is much more typical of their recent polls, showing topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%. Full tabs here


231 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

1 2 3 4 5
  1. The Labour message should be very simple: It’s right to make sure people are here legally, but this is a transparent PR stunt and a waste of money.

  2. I suspect that @Neil A is correct in his suggestion that the ‘illegals’ message is well supported, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into widespread support for the vans and the detailed policy approach.

    There is a sense developing that the campaign is a media driven event, which would be very sad for the police if this takes hold. I’m already seeing tweeted pictures of arrested ‘illegals’, which is not what the police should be permitting. As with some previous Tory administrations, if the police allow themselves to be seen as the servants of a particular party of government, that would be a highly damaging state of affairs.

    The reaction to the campaign is highly divided, and there appears to be a heightened sense of anger amongst legal minority populations. Electorally a problem for the Tories, but one they have lived with for some time now, so perhaps they are happy to accept this.

    What could be more problematic is if this degenerates further into more open anger and conflict. Police unpleasantness, open racism and the use of stop and search powers was a key element of numerous violent flare ups and major riots in the 1980’s, and lessons were learned. If these lessons are being forgotten now, for the sake of an overt political campaign, the electoral pluses and minuses will be complex.

    Amidst all this, I watched a documentary last night following a rather impressive group of people working for Birmingham Council’s anti social behavior team. One of the cases features was a traveler family living in a caravan in a patch of waste land on a housing estate, with eviction proceedings against them. One of the children had a serious heart condition but couldn’t get the necessary hospital referral as they didn’t have a post code with which to register with a GP.

    The council official charged with their eviction instead worked to get them a council house, so the child could get treated. However, this appeared to be strongly supported by the residents of the street. These people were filmed supplying food, water and use of their bathrooms for the traveler family, with one of them telling the camera that they wanted to help a family in some difficult circumstances. None of the residents were affluent, by any stretch of the imagination.

    Sometimes there is a certain type of politician who believes voters can be classified into groups, and then the least liked groups can be targeted and marginalised. However, ‘ordinary’ people don’t always conform to the neat classifications. Sometimes we rub up against individuals belonging to the ‘hated’ groups who we rather like.

    If they are seen as politically motivated and vindictive, these kinds of campaigns can lose as many friends as they gain.

  3. Amber Star

    @ Allan Christie

    Can we have some vans in Scotland please?
    ————–
    No
    __

    Not even 1?

  4. @Allan

    What if we use the vans with no tax or insurance? Many problems solved at once.

  5. Allan Christie

    “I don’t do political correct”

    I know

    “The terminology I use can be found in any of the MSM papers and I’m merely agreeing with government policy.”

    That doesn’t mean I have to like is and I think it is pretty awful. Whether you agree/disagree with govt policy is not the issue – and of little interest really.

  6. STATGEEK

    How big a fleet would that be? Would solve the problem though. ;-)

  7. PAULCROFT

    “That doesn’t mean I have to like is and I think it is pretty awful. Whether you agree/disagree with govt policy is not the issue – and of little interest really”
    ______

    Yes I know that but I was responding to your comment on my post in my own way with added info.

    Of course it may be of little interest to you but I’m not a mind reader.

  8. AC

    “Of course it may be of little interest to you but I’m not a mind reader.”

    You misunderstand: I meant that in the general context of what the forum is supposed to be about. C’est tout.

  9. ………….. and it’s not about requesting vans for Scotland – which no doubt makes it’s own judgement without checking with UKPR [not that I’m a mind reader – mebbe they do]

  10. @ Allan Christie

    Not even 1?
    ———-
    No.

  11. amber

    short posts tonight…………..

  12. Amber

    I hear that the Pentagon is thinking about canceling the F35 project, is that the plane we were going to have on our empty carriers?

  13. @ Paul

    Indeed; I was keeping it simple for Allan.

    I was thinking of posting something about Labour VI always getting a wee bounce whenever the news has been full of: ‘Tories drawing level’ (ICM poll) – but I need to go back & check how much data there is to support/ scupper my theory.

  14. @ RiN

    There are several variants of the F35; it probably won’t be the entire program which will be cancelled. Nevertheless, I expect Lockheed Martin took a hit following the leak about potential cuts &/or slow down in the program.

  15. Amber

    The thought of the carriers being without aircraft for ever I found amusing, I’m surprised the old harrier question hasn’t come up again

  16. Well I am with Amber on this one, we don’t want any up here, in Scotland although I think they are more Trucks really.

    I doubt they are effective and if anything they are a stunt by a government that has been spooked into being seen to do something!

    Still if we must have them up here as immigration is a reserved issue then seeing as tax, welfare and employment are reserved can we have some extra ones saying;

    “Is your Boss dodging the minimum wage ?”
    “Is your company flouting employment legislation ?”
    “Know anyone dodging their Tax or VAT ?”

    After all if it works for the home office.

    We could even extend it to loud speakers in public areas reminding us of “Freedom through Slavery”

    Peter.

  17. The pentagon isn’t going to cancel the F-35, it’s like a bank; To big to fail.

    However the costs will continue to rise and even with some stabilisation in the last few years even the simplest version the A for the US Airforce is over $150m each

    The initial testing and introduction for the UK is set to be 2017 if all goes well but what they don’t tell is that that testing only covers 17% of the intended operational flight envelope. I have seen one estimate that states that the unit price for our STOVL version in 2018 could hit £200m each, and that is pounds not dollars.

    At that price we could only afford to equip one of our two carriers anyway as our plans to by over 100 would probably be cut to less than 50. Just as well one is to be mothballed the day it is finished.

    Given that there are only two probable if unlikely scenarios for their use, backing the US in a major conflict, where they would be able to accomplish it without, us or a rerun of the Falklands, if Argentina ever gets round to replacing the two dozen or so jets it currently has which are the same ones it used in the Falklands war, it looks like we are spending £15bn to defend 500 civilians on a set of Islands where they are already out numbered two to one by military personnel.

    UK security policy at it’s best.

    Peter.

  18. I suppose it matters little what percentage of “illegals” read English well, as they saunter through North London.

    [Snip – AW]

    In terms of VI I guess it just entrenches positions and whether or not that helps the governing party that decided on it we shall see.

  19. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23552735

    Amber: You are needed.

    These are horrendous figures. [In both senses I suppose.]

  20. Have a long post in moderation from last night, discussing the London vans. The nub of it was agreeing with @Neil A, that the message itself is popular, but suggesting that an overly political approach by the enforcement agencies may well be counter productive and take us back to a previous, divisive age. The response to this policy among ethnic groups is not good, and there are risks here, both electorally for Tories, but also to wider community relations.

    @Paulcroft – you link to the evolution story is interesting. I’ve always been amazed that researchers keep trotting out theoretical studies ‘proving’ selfishness is the key element if evolution. Even the most basic grasp of biology shows us that there is cooperation out there, between and within species, so they are commencing their studies at the wrong starting point, let alone getting the wrong answer. The question really should be why we see so much cooperation in nature, and then work from there.

  21. Interesting to hear some of the opinions over recent poster vans and recent attempts by immigration officials to remove illigal immigrants.

    If you were a visitor looking at the actions of this government and the previous one re immigration that vistor may well be suprised by the current reaction.

    On one hand the previous government over a period of years presided over immigration on a massive scale both legal and illigal with scant regard on how that was going to react on jobs, housing, schools, NHS and so on and in doing so rekindled the far right in this country and layed the foundation for the right wing UKIP party to prosper.

    On the other hand the currant government has put out a few vans telling illigal immigrants to go home and tried for a more public perception that something is being done to remove illigal immigrants.

    [Snip – AW]

  22. @Alec

    Just seen your 11.04pm post from last night, which has now appeared and is well worth a read.

    Also, PeterCairns post about alternative messages that the vans could be carrying puts the political motivation behind this taxpayer funded scheme into perspective. One reason for keeping this campaign mobile is possibly to prevent defacing, as happened with the “airbrushed for change” hoardings in 2010… though it can be done legally and from the comfort of your own home:

    h
    ttp://mydavidcameron.com/

  23. ALEC

    @” The question really should be why we see so much cooperation in nature, and then work from there.”

    I recommend “Why Evolution is True” by J A Coyne, prof in the Dept. of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago; which I am reading at the moment.

    Coyne touches on question of natural selection acting “for the good of the species”, and describes it as “misguided” -adaptations always increase the fitness( reproductive capability) of the individual, not necessarily of the group or species. Stating that we never see adaptations which benefit the species at the expense of the individual, he gives an example of the spread of a gene for infanticide :

    When a group of male lions displaces resident males of the pride, this is followed by slaughter of the unweaned cubs. This behaviour , which reduces the total number of lions & is “bad” for the species, is good for the invading lions because the females come back into estrus when not nursing & the dead cubs are replaced by cubs bearing the genes of the invading males.
    There is no trait in this example for babysitting unrelated cubs, and evolution has favoured a gene for infanticide.

  24. TURK

    I agree-and the political stance that removal of people who have no legal right to work or live here is “racist”, may not be as popular as it’s proponents imagine.-particularly given the background you allude to.

  25. NICKP
    @”police stop and searches ”

    The Home Secretary is concerned about this too & has extended the consultation period on it probable reform :-

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-extends-consultation-into-use-of-stop-and-search

    No doubt you have contributed?

  26. @Colin – I’ll have to read it, clearly, but I don’t understand. Examples of situations where evolution favours the individual over the species don’t prove that the other never takes place. And counterexamples are everywhere, starting with ants, bees and naked mole-rats. In my view it’s blinkered to view evolution as working for any particular level (gene, organism, species, ecosystem) – it’s like asking whether the water cycle is more about oceans, raindrops or water particles. Just a matter of perspective.

  27. @Alec

    “Sometimes there is a certain type of politician who believes voters can be classified into groups, and then the least liked groups can be targeted and marginalised.”

    You might like to read this story.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23379615

    The BetterTogether people aim to identify IndyRef voters by splitting them into 40 ‘tribes’.

    ¿Why?

  28. James

    The big brother campaign?!

  29. Not really the place for an evolution discussion I suppose, but, in short, natural selection acts at the individual level but sometimes the individual benefits (reciprocally) by being altruistic – but by no means always of course..

  30. WES

    Thanks.

    First -I don’t think the constituent parts of inanimate entities like water bear any comparison with animate beings which reproduce with variability ( mutation) & heritability-the engines of evolution.

    THe examples you quote to support the idea of survival at species level through ” co-operation” are interesting. The social insects & the naked mole rate have all evolved eusocial lifestyles ( the latter is the only known mammal to do so).

    Eusociality involves co-operative brood care, overlapping adult generations & division of labour by reproductive & NON_REPRODUCTIVE groups.
    The castes which result produce complex societies totally focused on the reproductive ability of the Queen.

    Darwin himself was puzzled by the survival & repitition of individuals incapable of themselves reproducing.
    He suspected that the answer lay in the close family relationship of these groups.

    Modern knowledge of genetic inheritance has confirmed his suspicion .
    I am no expert on this , but a view has developed, I believe that these societies, including as they do clones & sterile “brothers” & sisters” are, in effect one organism.

  31. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/08/why-cant-we-be-told-how-many-members-the-conservative-party-has.html

    Some interesting insights into Tory party thinking here. Found the last paragraph particularly illuminating.

  32. [Snip – AW]

    colin

    “the political stance that removal of people who have no legal right to work or live here is “racist”, may not be as popular as it’s proponents imagine”

    Why do you make such claims? The objections are to a method which is unikely to have any effect and is widely regarded as giving the appearance of being racist in nature – even if that is not the intent – and therefore likely to do more damage than good.

    It is nothing to do with removal itself not being a reasonable course of action as far as I can tell and I don’t think anyone on UKPR has suggested otherwise.

  33. @Alec,

    Both parties are struggling for representative membership. I agree with Con home that its a big problem for Cons in particular. But think for a moment, even on here where there are zero floating voters and strong party allegiance, I would guess a lot of people still are not party members. Iam not a Conservative party member despite always voting for them.

    Why would people join the main parties?, I could give you a dozen examples where they have promised one thing and not done it to get voters. Labours cast iron guarantee on a vote on changes to the EU constitution, promising to make the lottery not for profit was another I didn’t like the reneging on, Lib Dems tuition fees, Conservatives have u turned on some promises too during this parliament. Call me cynical, but…

  34. This is really good !!!!!!!!!!

    What is your political compass ?

    http://www.politicalcompass.org/index

    If you click on take the test, answer quite a few questions in about 5 minutes, it will indicate where you are politically in comparison to well known people.

    My result showed that I am left of centre libetarian, similar to the Dalai Lama and Nelson Mandela. It is interesting to see that Ed Miliband and David Cameron are seen as right of centre, slightly authoritarian.

  35. I find this one better because it’s clearer about political groupings (I’m a Social Democrat).

    http://www.politicaltest.net/

  36. “@ mrnameless

    I find this one better because it’s clearer about political groupings (I’m a Social Democrat).

    http://www.politicaltest.net/

    Not so keen on that one. I did the short test, which said I was a leftish- fascist, but only moderately so. They gave me comfort by saying that 86% had more extreme views.

  37. As ever, this is NOT a venue for people to criticise government or opposition policies. Whether they are popular or not, whether the public are likely to support them, what the polls say about them – go ahead. What you think or them and whether they are any good or not, please keep to yourself.

  38. Yeah, or AW will banish you to the cold desolate wastelands of the north east, oops I meant pre mod

  39. Good Morning All.
    Does anyone have the correct version of Pastor Niemoller’s words, starting with the phrase: ‘First of all they came for…. ?

    JFK’s version, which is on the Congressional Record, is probably incorrect.

    I think that Tony Benn lost lots of votes in 1970 for his ‘flag over Belsen’ speech attacking Powell. Smethwick in 1964 was a case when immigration was a popular issue on which to fight.

    I suspect that it is still the case today.

  40. I seem to be falling foul of AW. What I have been trying to ask is whether Crosby et al have decided the “nasty” tag is going to lose them less votes than they are going to gain from the “tough on immigration” stance.

    I think it highly unlikely. Perhaps they hope to suck Labour into an argument on immigration ao they can try to resurrect the “open door” accusation we have seen even on this thread.

    I think it will backfire. Polls might give us an indication, but as AW always says, MOE and confounding factors (will) make it hard to judge.

  41. @RHuckle

    As always with Tests as per Political Compass, the result is influenced by the particular questions asked. For fun I also did that test and came out as less right wing and less authoritarian than Ed M, which i must say was a surprise to me. Mind I have always thought i was a moderate.

    Fun anyway, thanks for the reference.

  42. the other howard

    “Mind I have always thought i was a moderate.”

    You big old softie, you.

  43. Chris

    The Wikpedia article on the quote:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came

    has various versions and some interesting infromation, including the fact that At the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., the quotation is on display in a variation that substitutes “Socialists” for “Communists”..

    Thereby gloriously missing the point of the whole quote – that defending the rights of even the people who you hate is important, if only on the grounds of long-term self-interest.

  44. Anthony

    “What you think or them and whether they are any good or not, please keep to yourself.”

    To be fair to turk he was just saying what visitors might think and not expressing a personal opinion.

  45. Huckle

    Apparently I am Gandhi!

  46. Or a Social Democrat

    Strangely enough neither are too far off the mark

  47. All of our regular contributors should give this a try then AW can replace those political logos with a picture of the nearest celeb to your position.

  48. Make sure it’s celebrities, though. I’m not having Roy Jenkins as my background.

1 2 3 4 5