Two new polls yesterday/this morning, the regular YouGov poll for the Sun and Populus’s new regular eekly poll. I was expecting the regular ComRes telephone poll for the Independent as well, but it failed to appear (perhaps it will show up tonight).

In the meantime the YouGov and Populus figures are:

YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%
Populus – CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%

YouGov tabs are here, Populus here

90 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. Labour on the char-

    (oh, never mind).

  2. eek!

  3. Damm as soon as I get into a real ranting mood AW starts a new thread, it’s a bloody conspiracy I tell you, lol

  4. Wotta jolly good new thread! Nice and small and cosy.

  5. It’s OK RiN, I’ve responded to your rant on the previous Fred with a snarky remark of my own, so your effort wasn’t wasted.

    As for the polls, par for the course for the “YouGov/Populus” school. First time we’ve seen a 40 for Labour in a couple of weeks, which is good for them but also illustrates their slightly changed fortunes of late. Not so long ago, it was Labour scores under 40 that were the rarity.

  6. Interestingly Populus cross break for 18-24 is 30% Tories 50% Labour which seems more likely.

    Perhaps AW can tell us how long is it since Labour’s average polling has fallen outside of the range of 38 to 42?
    UKIP continue there fall .

  7. I do know how to spell their , my cat chose that moment to sit on the Keyboard!

  8. @Colin @Paul Croft.

    When Colin says………………”re “in dealing with other human beings we need to make allowances for people’s frailties as wel as their strengths and attempt to differentiate between those we can hep as a society and those that we have little need to do so and others who, perhaps, we simply cannot.”

    I can agree with all of that, I reserve my contempt for those who cannot be changed from being Criminal, workshy and feckless.

  9. Howard:

    HoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooraY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. Fracking should be carried out in the North East of England, where there are large, “desolate” areas, a former energy secretary has said.

    Well jolly good, as Paul C would say, we peasants up Norf won’t mind. Anyfink to help preserve the beautiful rural areas which his Lordship wishes to protect from ghastly industrialization. I don’t suppose the posher folk in the greenbelts will want to buy the energy produced by fracking will they ?

    Well whatever, touch me forelock, bow and grovel etc. All I ask is that they try not to upset me ferrets when the drilling starts.

  11. ozwald

    “All I ask is that they try not to upset me ferrets when the drilling starts. ”

    Cheek! Get the little rascals ear-muffs.

  12. @Paul Croft

    If you are happy with that context then there is no problem between us. I thought that your problem was that I used the word “contempt” in relation to other human beings.

  13. toh

    Either I need to write more clearly or……..

    well, anyway no: I coudn’t understand what came over as a broad brush approach.

    I don’t think there’s any problem anyway as I have said before. We’re all different.


    “jolly good”

    I have four “heroes” Kings Harold and Richard III, Bach and – best of all – William Brown.

    “How else will you know you’ve had enough” as an answer to Mrs Brown telling him he’d be sick if he had anymore trifle is still one of my favourite lines.

    I also liked his grumpy “Well, it’s news to me if ……”

    Happy days reading Richmal Crompton and the vocabulary, writing skills were fantastic for children.

  14. @Steve

    Lab (UK):

    37% – 17th July, 10th July, 29th May

    43% – 2nd May

    All the rest are 38-42% inclusive. In fact, the last 42% was 26th June, and the last 41% was 12th July.

  15. Anthony

    I have asked this question recently and sorry if I missed any reply.

    Why is the UKIP vote being so drastically reduced by weighting under Populus – in fact more than 50% ? Its about half that under YouGov. Even YouGov seem to cut UKIP far more than other Parties under weighting.

    I just find this more and more baffling because weekly by-elections suggest UKIP’s average vote is higher than these polls suggest.

    Is the fall in UKIP’s opinion poll rating caused by this – or were they scoring even higher scores unweighted in April-May ?

  16. @Paul C
    William Brown – yes, great stories. I also like Winnie-the-Pooh. I liked some of the jokes doing the rounds after Richard III remains were found. One was about a Medieval planning application to build a car park where he lay. Richard objected and said “over my dead body”.

    Then one wag said “good job it wasn’t an application for a multi-story car park – because that would have been wrong on so many levels.
    OK I’ll go away!

  17. Welsh Borderer –

    Because for some reason Populus are getting far more UKIP identifiers in their raw sample than they think there should be in a properly representative sample. No idea why (and as ever, I would urge extreme caution in estimating levels of support in Westminster elections by taking averages of local by-elections – it has never been a particularly good guide in the past, so I’ve no reason to think it would have suddenly become one).

    Populus and Survation are the only companies to have changed their methods in the last couple of months (and Populus were on hiatus between Jan and Jul, so don’t really count) so recent fall in UKIP support is nothing to do with changes in methods.

  18. From previous article


    “Nae Chance with that mate. My dear old mother would never forgive me for being such a Numpty.

    Nice to See the SNP think they will win.

    Can I claim my free pen for visiting?”

    Not sure why you would be labelled a numpty and secondly I would never call anyone who had or who would consider voting Scottish Labour a numpty.

    “Nice to see the SNP will think they will win”
    Win what?

    I’m not a member of the SNP but yeah claim your free pen for visiting the site….I did. ;-)

    As I said in a previous post.. I don’t mind splitting my vote for the SNP in Scotland and Tory for Westminster and on independence I have yet to decide but it wont be anyone from Labour who will persuade me to vote no…That’s a dead cert!!

  19. YouGov/Sun – CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%
    Populus – CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%

    I think the Populus poll has a better look to it.


    Someone thought I was a Scottish Tory voter but I quickly dispelled that myth.

    Although I voted Tory at the UK election I’m by no means a true blue.

    Could say I’m a Tartan Tory…

    I like that!!

  21. Statgeek – I think Steve means the UKPR average being outside 38-42 range as unfortunately there is no historical tracker for this (might be worthwhile if straightforward Anthony).

    Maybe February when I think it was more with YG but maybe ICM dragged the average down.

  22. PAULCROFT/Chordata

    I’m really getting confused because I fail to see the partisan part of my post???

    Because I wont be bulldozed into voting in a particular way in a referendum by the Labour party but will listen to the arguments from the Tories/SNP/Lib/Dems/Greens/Scottish Socialists and even UKIP does not in any account make my post partisan.

    I gave Labour a chance when I watched one debate and all I got was negative jibes. Too important an issue for me so either Cameron or Salmond will persuade me and at mo it’s 50/50.

    [Snipped various comments. I’ll snip comments that are partisan. Going around accusing other people of being partisan is, itself, the sort of silly partisan back and forth that the comments policy is supposed to avoid. It takes two to have a silly partisan exchange, so if people think another comment is partisan please *ignore* it, don’t respond to it – AW]


    “And what is this supposed to mean >>>>>>

    “I think the Populus poll has a better look to it.”

    The populus poll is better for the Tory party – and so you consider the above comment to be worth making?”

    Don’t jump to conclusions, the Lib/Dems are on 11% with Populus and 10% with YouGov and yes it was worth making.

    It’s great to see the Lib’s gaining a little boost now and then.

  24. @Anthony – I saw a tweet from Mike Smithson saying that yougov had done polling into the ‘Go Home’ vans.

    Any idea when we will see it ?

  25. AW

    Point taken…

  26. Chordata – right now it’s here,

    But those are just topline figures, they should shortly be replaced with proper full tabs so the link might stop working!

  27. Some have described the advertising as racist.
    To what extent do you agree or disagree with
    this view?
    Strongly agree 12
    Tend to agree 19
    Tend to disagree 28
    Strongly disagree 33
    Don’t know 8

    Have to say I’m one of the 61%.

  28. “Some have described the advertising as racist.”

    I wonder whether poll respondents might infer from use of “some” that not many describe it thus; and therefore in giving their response might be ‘persuaded’ to disagree simply on the ground that they wish to be part of the ‘majority’ implied in the statement?

  29. ‘Geekly’?

    These Tories really know how to win friends in the north.

    While this is a real gift to Labour, the use of the word ‘desolate’ has been taken I feel, somewhat out of context, and the kernel of what was said bears some sense – it’s easier to develop industries in less populated areas without disturbing as many people.

    Having said that though, this merely confirms the prejudice we up here have of the Tories. They think and talk as if ‘the north’ is another world, and one that doesn’t matter to them. It’s the tone of how they speak, rather than what they are actually trying to say, that gives the game away.

  30. Thanks Anthony – will you please also post up the full tables when they are available ?

  31. To RiN’s point, I thought the accusation as that it was likely to stoke concerns and tensions, as well as being – frankly – pretty tasteless and probably ineffective in tackling illegal immigration.

    If I was polled on that question I wouldn’t say it was racist, just tacky and inappropriate Daily Express propaganda.

  32. Actualy, scrap that idea. people might yellow card some of mine and we can’t have that.

  33. Come on AW that comment wasn’t partisan, you know I would make the same comment if Labour were doing it, admittedly it would probably provoke some partisan responses but it’s an important issue that no one else would bring up in this day and age, 50 years ago there would have been outrage from the press on exactly the issue I raised from papers on both sides, we have got so used to the misappropriation of public funds that we don’t recognize it when we see it

  34. @” Going around accusing other people of being partisan is, itself, the sort of silly partisan back and forth that the comments policy is supposed to avoid. It takes two to have a silly partisan exchange, so if people think another comment is partisan please *ignore* it, don’t respond to it ”

    Glad you emphasised that AW.

    If there is one thing worse than you brandishing the red card, its some self appointed censor declaring that one has crossed his/her irritation barrier & are therefore “partisan”.

  35. @ Jayblanc (1.35)

    Re Population Density. Apparently, we have been misinformed.

    According to Lord Howell “there are large uninhabited and desolate areas, certainly up in the North East where there’s plenty of room for fracking well away from anyone’s residence where it can be conducted without any kind of threat to the rural environment.”


    Perhaps Lord Howell was referring to the fact that the NE of England is desolate in respect to Tory voters. Thankfully for those of us who live here, it is one of the most beautiful parts of the UK

  36. COLIN

    “If there is one thing worse than you brandishing the red card, its some self appointed censor declaring that one has crossed his/her irritation barrier & are therefore “partisan”

    Absolutely Colin well said..

  37. Desolate has a range of meanings. I expect Howell meant lonely and unpopulated, rather than bleak and depressing. It was still a stupid thing to say though.

    Thankfully for the Tories, they can lose all of their NE England seats without it making very much difference at all to their prospects in 2015..

  38. “Can we at least agree that he’s not the son of god but a very silly boy though? [That’s not being partisan that’s just good observational skills coming into play”

    AW can we also do away with personal snide remarks on fellow posters?

    I don’t make them so why should I have to put up with them?

  39. I can’t help feeling this site would cease to exist if there were no partisan comments. I am sure we all have a good idea which party – or at least ideas on a generally accepted right/left spectrum – each individual on here supports. The only way we can know that is because everyone makes partisan comments all the time – some of us even admit it with our background colour.

  40. ALLAN

    @”I don’t make them so why should I have to put up with them?”

    You shouldn’t.

  41. @Neil A – “I expect Howell meant lonely and unpopulated… ”

    He needn’t have said ” …large and uninhabited and desolate areas” then.

    The Guardian is reporting that ” …a government spokesman said Howell had not been a government adviser since April 2013, though no announcement of his stepping down was made at the time.”

  42. I was looking forward to them finding vast quantities of shale gas bang in the middle of Buckingham-shire.

  43. @rogerrebel

    Bang in the middle of Nicolas Soames’ constituency (Mid Sussex) looks to be a distinct possibility.

  44. The asking price for bale is 126 million, maybe spurs will settle for 110, now that’s got to be worth a poll

  45. RiN – ironically we had some space on the poll and were going to ask about Gareth Bale… but a client came along and used the space up, so it was not to be.

  46. @Billy Bob,

    Just because he’s an erudite Tory lord doesn’t mean he can’t fall into using extraneous adjectives.

    The full quote, to me, just makes it even more likely that he meant “desolate” in the non-pejorative sense.

    If he had said “ugly, charmless and desolate” you might have a point…

  47. AW

    What was the question you were thinking of?

  48. If I can lure you away from feeding the Paul for a moment, Allan, there’s a question I’ve been meaning to ask you for a while.

    You’re not a Scottish Tory, but I think you’d probably agree that you are a Scottish conservative, with a lowercase ‘c’. The independence movement often seems to be couched in terms of “Throw off the shackles of Surrey! Vote YES and you’ll never have a Tory government again!” Is this not a concern for you?

    The SNP have a mixed policy bag including some fairly conservative policies- council tax freezes, etc- along with more socialist and liberal policies, and I don’t know, maybe that mixture suits you perfectly. But they’re certainly to the left of the Tories. We don’t know exactly what the politics of an independent Scotland would look like, but it seems clear that unless there is a rightward shift in public opinion in Scotland as a whole, independence is going to leave you with a choice between Labour and the SNP (or perhaps in some distant future, a more leftwing, SNP-like Scottish Tory Party). You’ll no longer have the counterweight of Southern England to pull your governments right.

    Doesn’t that worry you? If I were in your place I think I’d be staunchly unionist.

  49. RiN – buggered if I know. My knowledge of football is famously non-existent, when we ask questions about football *other* people write them!

    BillyBob – I think the Lancashire fracking is likely to be around the very Tory Fylde as well

  50. @NeilA

    Your probably right but nevertheless it indicated at least a lack of knowledge. As Peter Bell pointed out much of the North East is outstandingly beautiful.

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