A quick round of of today’s polls. The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here, and has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%. YouGov’s daily polling appears to be showing an average Labour lead of around about six points.

The rest of the poll deals mainly with the economy and the royals. Economic optimism continues to get slightly less pessimistic, the “feel good factor” (those thinking their economic situation will get better in the next twelve months minus those who expect it to get worse) is minus 27. Asked more specifically about the recent GDP figures, 38% think that it shows the economy is now on the mend and will continue to grow, 49% think it is bouncing along the bottom. Looking at the crossbreaks shows quite how much people’s opinions on the economy are shaped by their pre-existing views of the government and politics: three-quarters of Conservatives think the economy is now on the mend, three-quarters of Labour supporters think it shows things bouncing along the bottom.

George Osborne continues to have a negative rating as Chancellor – only 25% think he is doing a good job, 45% a bad job. However the widespread desire for Cameron to replace him that YouGov found back in March has declined somewhat – back then people wanted Osborne sacked by 51% to 17%, it’s now a less overwhelming 42% to 30%. He also has better ratings than Ed Balls, and people think Osborne would make a matter Chancellor than Balls by 35% to 27%. By 43% to 32% people think the economy would have been worse if Labour had won the last election.

On the monarchy 17% of people think Britain should become a republic, 75% that we should continue to have a monarchy. A new ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph found a similar pattern – 66% think Britain is better off as a monarchy, 17% that it would be better off as a republic. The Sunday Telegraph article has a rather overblown headline of “Confidence in British monarchy at all time high, poll shows” which is a bit silly on various grounds (the monarchy predates opinion polling by hundreds of years so we don’t have anything to judge by, and as far as I can tell the survey did not ask questions that have a long train of past tracking data to compare to).

The best long term tracker data on attitudes to the monarchy is probably MORI’s collection here. Even there things are a bit hamstrung by the fact that lots of polling on the royal family started in the early nineties when the monarchy was at a low ebb in the wake of the the failure of the marriages of Charles, Andrew and Princess Anne and the Queen’s annus horribilis – so most current polling does show the royal family being held in higher regard than in the 1990s…but those few trends that stretch back into the 1980s show much more positive ratings. I suspect the reality is “confidence in British monarchy higher than it has been for twenty years or so”… but we don’t have the data to be sure.

Finally the Sunday Times had a new Panelbase poll on the Scottish Independence referendum, which had YES on 37%(+1), NO on 46%(+2). Past polls on the independence referendum are here, and it’s worth noting the consistent differences between pollsters. Panelbase tend to show a relatively tight race, Ipsos MORI and TNS tend to show a much bigger lead for the NO campaign.


342 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

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  1. A cupboard has space, but I wouldn’t want to live in it. 7 billion people on the planet, 9 billion by 2050 – it’s too many, wherever you live.

  2. @Alec,

    But the point is the same as my UK one. In terms of space, the planet has loads of space, even for 9 billion. It’s providing services, infrastructure, water, food, housing that is incredibly challenging. Potentially all but impossible to a decent level.

  3. @Rich – Indeed – that’s what I was saying.

  4. @Colin – I am interested to see that London is the best place to do financial business (and also in the information from Bigfatron that it has the best support people for this industry). Presumably banks feel that in such a paradise they can make bigger profits. Do you think it is fair that one should ask them to pay in some way for this bonus that they get?

  5. alec

    “7 billion people on the planet, 9 billion by 2050”

    Have you taken into account that me and TOH wil be gone by then?

  6. Jings I will be 60 by 2050.

    I wonder if Paul Croft will had left a lasting legacy by then. One which I and others can lament to the masses.

  7. acey

    I already have: your posts have improved.

  8. I’ll be 55 and AW will still be moderating our posts from his brain implanted into the UKPR server on the neural interface network we’re all using.

  9. MTM,

    There is no contradiction in swearing an oath of loyalty to the Queen and being a republican, anymore than there is in voting and being an anarchist.

    “When in Rome, do as the Romans do, except vomiting between courses.”

  10. COLIN
    “I presume these “inequalities” are in respect of income.”

    Actually, as we say, no. Pre-distrributional policies would be aimed at inequalities of access, particularly to education, employment, use of English, health and social services; thence status and capacities, social skills, occupation of positions of authority and management. It would be aimed at efficiencies in the economy, not just income distribution or taxation; thence improved production levels, earning, and thus revenues and more equally distributed, and more, private wealth, not just in cash but in social resources in the private as well as the public sectors.

  11. COLIN
    I meant to add, the history of the emancipation of women in Britain is a good precedent for current ideas about pre-distribution. Without the access to equal educational and employment opportunity and working rights, continued right up to the EU legislation in recent decades, our economy and that of much of the world would be vastly weaker, materially but also in the quality of life.

  12. jp

    Is that ‘cos women are lovely?

  13. PAUL
    Yes – I think you have something there.

  14. Latest YouGov / The Sun results 29th July – Con 33%, Lab 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -29

  15. Maybe Ernie is right.

  16. “Maybe Ernie is right.”

    Pasturize is best?

  17. CHARLES

    @” Do you think it is fair that one should ask them to pay in some way for this bonus that they get?”

    Yes-they do pay a variety of taxes.

    The question for some people seems to be how much more should banks pay than other industry sectors-just because they are banks.

  18. JOHN PILGRIM

    Ah-I hadn’t realised EM meant “predistribution” of “education, employment, use of English, health and social services; ”

    I don’t really understand what that means-so am now on the same page as Turk.

    If , on the other hand, he meant what the Wiki page refered to, then I can understand it-but I think it is an uneccessarily obtuse word to describe higher minimum pay.

  19. RICH

    @”In terms of space, the planet has loads of space, even for 9 billion. ”

    Only if you ignore all the space required by all the other species on the planet.

  20. Colin – in 13 years of a Labour Government we did plenty to alleviate poverty by primarily using the welfare state funded as we now all know by unsustainable tax revenues from the city and from the mega-increase in personal debt.

    What we failed to do in any meaningful way was re-fashion the supply side of the economy to raise incomes for those on below average earnings.

    The adoption of Pre-distribution recognises this failure (but don’t expect our leadership to say this) and goes to the core of industrial and skills and education policy. The philosophy is sound but the actual policies are a challenge to produce.
    There will be a role for the living wage campaign but on its’ own it is not enough.

    Just one kind of myth to bust – pre-distribution is and never was meant to be a campaigning slogan to take to the Electorate bit like Thatcher never used Hayek to the Public.

    The 1980s Tories did manage to use some phrases readily understood such as ‘can’t buck the market’ to simplify Hayek. Labour do need to find a simple phrase or 2 to encapsulate what would be different about Labour other than the necessary but only marginally effective ‘fairness with perhaps more borrowing for Investment’ construct.

  21. Bill Patrick and MTM

    I don’t know what oath new citizens are required to take, but in Holyrood MSPs swear, or affirm, allegience to HMQ and “her heirs and successors”. I have always understood ‘successors’ to include the possibility of an elected Head of State.

  22. People need to think more creatively. Will Alsop’s idea for three mega-supercities straddling the UK for instance… higher density better planned urban/parkland environments, with fast transport links, less urban sprawl, more wild areas:

    h
    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9S9HW6JxCI

  23. @Colin – “I don’t really understand what that means-so am now on the same page as Turk.”

    I think it means something like ‘sharing the proceeds of growth’, which I heard somewhere before, but I can’t quite think where.

  24. @Billy Bob – Alsop is an architect, not an ecologist. I shudder when I hear talk of ‘merging the concept of urban and rural’.

    These are not concepts – these are places and environments.

    As @Colin says – we have plenty of ‘space’, but only if we ignore non human needs. We can debate all we like, but the end point remains constant – too many people.

  25. @ Allan,
    I doubt very much we will see DC on the same podium as AS
    Certainly not. The NO campaign are trying to win the referendum, after all!

    -If the no campaign have any sense Alistair Darling will be the front man and David Cameron and his clipped Old Etonian Accent should be kept as far away as possible

  26. The Point about using Darling is that it makes remaining in the Union an non partisan case.
    The only problem would be probably the Tories won’t be able to accept that they are unpopular in Scotland and would find it difficult to see “their” case for union fronted by a political opponent (and the next chancellor)


  27. Pups back from a weekend at the coast and it’s a seven wuffs prediction.

    July 29th, 2013 at 9:34 pm”

    Not bad from the babies.

  28. The location of the new city of Milton Keynes was chosen as it was (and is) roughly equidistant from London, Birmingham, Leicester, Oxford and Cambridge. That is one possible model.

    The politics are quite lively too, with all three main parties having representation (LibDems at local level only) and at least one seat changing hands last time.

  29. The latest YG Still has Tories (40) and Labour (42) within MOE in the 18-24 Cross Break.

    I just don’t believe this, all other polls companies and historical voting data have Labour between 10 and 25 ahead in this age group.

    I appreciate AW comment regarding don’t read too much into a single poll but I think this is around 6 consecutive polls now which indicates there might be something wrong in the testing method and perhaps is why You Gov’s lead for Labour is regularly one of the lower ones.

    40% isn’t bad though as an overall figure.

  30. JIM JAM

    Thanks.

    I do agree that what may well be laudible objectives , are not well communicated in the faux intellectual jargon of words like “pre-distribution”.

    I can understand “equality of opportunity” & am very much in favour of it.

    But I do have a problem with the concept of “equality of access” . As applied to EDucation, it would presumably require the closure of all private ( non-state) schools. And even then, under a system controlled rigorously by LAs, you have the little problem of inequality in teaching ability.

    Similarly, on access to health services, true “equality of access” would require the closure of all providers who charge for their services.

    I think these sort of ideas are well meant but seek a superficially level playing field which turns out to be nothing of the sort.

    Monopoly of provision-be it in the public or private sector always tends towards activities which are provider orientated, rather than customer/client orientated in my view.

    It’s a big subject though & I don’t mean to start a debate on it.

    THanks for your typically thoghtful post.

  31. High Court Ruling coming out today regarding the Bedroom Tax

    About 660,000 working-age social housing households judged to have too many bedrooms have lost an average of £14 per week since their benefit was cut at the beginning of April.

    Council housing waiting lists for new properties are on average over 5 Years, private rentals are more expensive there is effectively no where smaller or cheaper for most of these people to move to.

    Continuing on from the theme of overcrowding (or not) and who owns all the land in the UK the result of this may resonate with VI

  32. ALEC

    Maybe there will be some to share soon?

  33. @Alec

    Relatively small human populations have proved themselves able to drive other species to extinction in the past.

    I think it’s worth exploring other possibilities. Human activity limited to narrower, more interesting and more rewarding high density corridors – interpenetrated by green/wildlife corridors. Better diets providing more nutrition to larger numbers from a smaller area of land use.

    Currently there is waste, destruction and sprawl on a massive scale. More biodiversity together with more humans (or rather a rapidly stabilising world popilation). Just saying “too many people” doesn’t solve anything.

  34. ALEC
    @Colin – “I don’t really understand what that means-so am now on the same page as Turk.” “I think it means something like ‘sharing the proceeds of growth’, which I heard somewhere before, but I can’t quite think where.”

    Really?
    Sharing the proceeds of growth, is of course distributional, you silly billies.

    Pre-distributional (pre- “before”, see? distribution) , means what it says: measures which are taken before, or taken to estab;lsh a basis fo,r better distribution within a commonwealth – so measures and policy which provide better access to the opportunity and means of wealth. So better access to education, better access to English speaking and writing, better access to employment and earning opportunity..

  35. @ Jim Jam

    As you describe it I am in favour of ‘pre-distribution’ in principle, although – like Colin – that the difficulty will lie in finding a way to implement without imposing equality by averaging down.

    It’s certainly going to be more effective than re-distribution…

  36. I’ll be 55 and AW will still be moderating our posts from his brain implanted into the UKPR server on the neural interface network we’re all using.

    -AW will still be far younger then than I am now so I expect His brain will be where He usually keeps it.

  37. @Paul C
    Spot on 7% prediction from your wuffers.
    Any chance of a tip for the 1800 at Perth tonight ?

  38. ALEC
    The message of Jane Jacobs “The Life and Death of Great American Cities” would be increase rather than reduce the density of London; build in, build up, renew not spread out, so leave our green lungs and our surrounding countryside and corridors alone.

  39. STEVE

    “-If the no campaign have any sense Alistair Darling will be the front man and David Cameron and his clipped Old Etonian Accent should be kept as far away as possible”
    _______

    Most people in Scotland would agree with that and the Tory brand being toxic in Scotland then it’s probably good advice.

    I do actually like DC and AS and I don’t have a problem splitting my vote for the SNP in Scotland and Tory for the UK.

    I really would like to see Salmond and Cameron on the same podium because I believe Cameron would give a good and honest account of why Scotland should remain part of the UK and likewise Salmond would give a good and honest account why Scotland should become independent from the UK,.

    For me someone like Darling would be far too negative and would spend too much time NAT bashing and as I haven’t made up my mind yet (with the other 20% ) then I want to hear a positive vision from both sides.

    The problem I have with Labour on the indy debates is that it always seems a personal attack against the First Minister where the Tories (not the Scottish crop) do make a genuine case for the Union although some of what they say is pie in the sky.

    Of course that’s only my take on things as it stands thus far!!

  40. PAULCROFT

    “acey

    “I already have: your posts have improved”
    __________

    Ha! Well I promise not to mention Ed’s big nose again.

  41. BFR/Colin,

    It may be that I misunderstand the idea but I agree that equality of opportunity would imply more social mobility not a bad thing but for every person who climbs (for want of a better word) someone else must fall.

    So the industrial part to create more opportunities for all is the missing crucial piece with Education tailoring in. Although the picking future requirements implication is fraught with difficulty so generic education and skills enhancement but more industrially focused would be required – not easy.

    Missing from 18 years of Conservative Government, 13 years of Labour and from the present Government.

  42. Also in the yougov poll was people approving the ‘go home’ billboard posters by 47% to 41%.

    This 47% excludes Nigel Farage who disapproves putting him solidly Centre Left (insert smiley)

  43. John

    I have a few problems with your vision, one problem I have is very difficult to articulate but weights very heavily on me, I think it’s a bias that pen pushing jobs should be better rewarded and that we need to push many folk into pen pushing as possible, that’s not a good explanation, let’s try, that these ideas are inherently discriminatory against low skilled but still hard work occupations

    The other problem is that these ideas rely on two contradictory notions, that the market is efficient and that the market won’t react to these efforts by lowering the price for skilled labour

  44. The union Unison has been given permission to seek a judicial review of the introduction of fees for workers seeking employment tribunals.

    People wanting to bring tribunals must now pay a fee for the first time since they were created in the 1960s.

    Under the rules, it will cost £160 or £250 to lodge a claim, with a further charge of either £230 or £950 if the case goes ahead.

    The judicial review will take place in October.

    Unison general secretary Dave Prentis said: “The introduction of punitive fees for taking a claim to an employment tribunal would give the green light to unscrupulous employers to ride roughshod over already basic workers’ rights.”

    He added: “We believe that these fees are unfair and should be dropped.”

    The higher charges will cover cases such as unfair dismissal, the lower ones issues such as unpaid invoices.

  45. shevii

    “Also in the yougov poll was people approving the ‘go home’ billboard posters by 47% to 41%”
    _____

    I think it’s a fantastic idea. In fact I wouldn’t mind driving one of the vans. I’m sure I could clock up a few good miles!!

  46. John

    The other problem is that it sidesteps the whole issue of the economic necessity of unemployment, it buys into a concept that folk are unemployed because there is no demand for their skills but ignores that goats of all stripes will deliberately depress demand if wages start to rise too fast, although I have to say that wages have never risen too fast for me or anyone I know, lol. Come on its a nice set of ideas and worthy in themselves but it’s a complete cop out, it ignores the realities of economic policy and the present architecture of the economy and instead tinkers around at the edges

  47. Goats of all stripes should of course be govts of all stripes

  48. These polls are confusing at the moment. UKIP have definitely fallen back by about 3% or so. The Tories have gained a little due to this, but are stuck in the low 30’s. Labour are now consistenly on about 38%. There appears to be some optimism among some voters about the economy, but this is not the case across the whole country.

    Perhaps the polls are just reflecting that people are confused. They are not sure whether the economy is genuinely improving and that their families finances, plus future prospects will improve. What is being ignored at the moment, is that the nations debt is still growing by around £100bn a year and whoever wins in 2015, will be faced with implementing deeper cuts and/or tax increases. I can’t see a time when the UK economy will be in surplus again, because of globalisation.

  49. “@ richard in norway

    Goats of all stripes should of course be govts of all stripes”

    Before your clarification, I was thinking that this was a new saying imported from somewhere. Something to do with a ‘nanny state’.

  50. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    Goats of all stripes should of course be govts of all stripes

    I’m not sure you were wrong when you said goats…

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