Two new polls out this morning – both showing things ticking along pretty much as usual. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11% – the six point lead is pretty representative of the average in YouGov’s polls over the last week or so. Full tabs are here

Meanwhile the latest Populus poll has very similar figures – their topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. Full tabs are here.


274 Responses to “New YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. Graham,

  2. Graham – I think Labour had more MPs E&W combined than the Tories except in 1950 but stand to be corrected.

  3. turk


    I think if he had to read through the latest spat between you and TOH he may well have been reduced to tears of boredom.”

    Yeah – someone having a view on how constituency sizes are worked out and then writing about it on a poiitical forum is just so out of place and dull isn’t it?

    FI

  4. Graham – think I may be wrong about Nov 74 but not 1964, got Feb and Nov figures muddled.

    Point to my colleagues was that Labour can get a majority without Scottish seats and in fact all 3 ‘Blair’ victories achieved this.

  5. @steve,

    In 1964
    The Conservatives received over 40% of the vote in Scotland and the SNP less than 3% ! Securing 23 More MP than they now have
    If anything Conservative Governments Prior to the 1970?s retained power because of the relative popularity in Scotland, until the 1950?s they were the largest party there

    xxxxxxxxx

    Yes, for all her huge success at turning round the country from the 70s, one damaging Thatcher legacy for the Tories was the severe damage to the brand in Scotland, which the Cons have never really recovered from. If anything, Blair didnt really learn from this, and Labour also seem to be slowly bleeding away in Scotland to the SNP.

  6. TOH

    I never said I agreed with Paul Croft, though I do and am always prepared top admit being wrong.

    He and others put together good reasons for basing on the census population rather than electoral roll. I am sure you have arguments for your position, it is just that you choose not to make them and resort to being fairly dismissive and, dare I say, arrogant. I can think of a few reasons myself, I am sure you can as well and would like to see them articulate them

    I find it strange, as a libertarian right-winger that when offered the following two options:

    i. Base the size of constituencies on the most accurate measure of population or

    ii. Base the size of the constituency on a list of people who register with the Government by a time defined by the Government on rules set by the Government

    you choose the latter.

    My own opinion is that the people who are not registered are those more likely to live in urban areas and are the least advantaged in our society, and so would see a Government more based on the needs of these people. I am happy with that.

  7. rich

    You should put your kisses at the end of your response, not the beginning.

    Very sweet anyway.

  8. According to PoliticalBetting, the opinium poll out today shows ‘some interesting movements’. Last time: Cons 27 Lab 38 Lib 6 UKIP 19.

    Wonder if the gap will widen or narrow? I’m guessing a narrowing is much more likely, but if so, will it just be the result of a bit of a dodgy poll or of the latest GDP figures, or a bit of both?

  9. I’d propose a compromise: base things on the census but hold more regular ones i.e. every 5 years. The population in the UK is changing pretty rapidly in recent years, and there is great regional variance and difference in regional birth rates etc. (resulting in, for example, severe school place shortages in some areas). Surely a more regular census would be worth the extra money as it would enable us to plan our local services better in a time of great and rapid regional and national population/demographic change.

  10. ambi

    Molto sensibilioso.

    Looking forward to Bale joining Real Madrid by the way.

  11. ambi

    and that is one of the arguments against the earlier proposition – that the census data is a snapshot taken once every ten years so is the data still accurate? It is a pity that TOH did not use the discussion with Paul to make this type of argument.

    One option is a more regular census – linked to fixed-term Parliaments it could be aligned. Another would be that all residents have to be registered in their local area. This starts bringing us down the ID cards discussion again but most other countries in Europe have the ‘commune’ system but it requires a database and probably cards which is where we get into problems……

  12. Ambiv probably some UKIP – Con movement at a miminum

  13. @Paul,

    “Looking forward to Bale joining Real Madrid by the way.”

    I’m not! Hope the rumours prove unfounded, but I fear that he is already on his way.

  14. Probably LD up as well as 6 was rather low last time

  15. Laszlo

    …[does] the DK figure has the same MoE, hence confidence level as the headline figures? … (if DKs are residual after all the stat manipulations)

    As far as I can see YouGov offer ‘Would Not Vote’ and ‘Don’t know’ as options in the same way as the various Parties[1] and subject these options to the same weighting processes. So the same calculations should be applicable

    That said they won’t have the same MoE as the headline VIs. That is because they are percentage of the whole sample (eg in the latest YouGov 1817). The corresponding VI for the Parties is based on a sample of that less the WNVs and DKs (in this case around 1400). So the MoE on the WNVs will be a bit smaller.

    It’s also worth pointing out that, particularly if you are using the DKs on their own, once you are estimating something 10-15% say, it’s worth using an MoE calculator that allows for this – such as the second one here:

    http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

    (rather confusiongly what it calls “confidence interval” is actually MoE)

    On the 1817 sample this gives an MoE of 1.64 rather than 2.3 you get from calculators that don’t allow for this (and assume you are trying to estimate something around 50%). It’s a substantial difference once the percentages you’re looking at get small.

    I probably don’t need to tell you this, but all this applies only if you are looking at percentages calculated from the whole sample. If you are looking at a sub-sample (never mind all the other problems), you need to use the size of that sample in the relevant calculations (if there’s a big difference between the two figures, use the unweighted one).

    Finally there’s my usual warning that MoEs are always minimums, the variation that you can get out, no matter how good your sample is. So in the real world the natural variation from other causes will be greater than this.

    [1] I would assume they would be offered on the second screen along with UKIP and the other ‘Others’ so as to make sure that those polled see all the possibilities before opting out, though that might perhaps ‘force’ some people to choose one of the first screen parties if they don’t know that WNV and DK are with the Others and assume that they had to choose a particular Party.

  16. @Jim Jam,

    Yep, agree with both points.

  17. @Paul Croft

    “Using such terms to describe anyone who is not on the electoral roll – a position from which you have never resiled – says a lot more about you than them.”

    Putting words into my mouth yet again, please don’t do it. I was referring in that post only to the Criminal, workshy and feckless.

    Enough said on the subject i think.

  18. Rich

    The latest poll in Scotland puts Labour 12% ( on 38%) ahead of SNP for UK Parliamentary elections and 18% ahead of Conservatives.

    That is approximately the same level of support they enjoyed in Scotland until the 1960’s while conservative support has dropped by over 60%.

    The main change in Scotland is the Growth of the SNP primarily at the cost of Conservative Votes.

    We will have to differ on the benefits or otherwise of Thatchers Government

  19. @BCrombie

    Thanks for the reply. You describe me fairly accurately as a Libertarian and a rightwinger . I am certainly a libertarian economically and generally a right winger. However socially I am not libertarian, e.g I would vote for the return of the death penalty for most murders. So now I think you can probably see where i was coming from.

  20. TOH
    Is it from Texas?

  21. @STEVE

    Is what from Texas? The only time I have been to Texas was bird watching in the late 80s.

  22. TOH

    “why should the electoral system take account of those who cannot even bother to go on the electoral role.
    There are many reasons …… some of them criminal”

    “if they are uninvolved why should we worry about their representation?”

    “I have no respect indeed contempt for the criminal, the feckless and the workshy”

    ………………………………………………………………………………..

    All taken from your posts on the way the electoral roll is made up
    …………………………………………………………………………………

    “Putting words into my mouth yet again”

    ………………………………………………………………………………..

    Mmmm – taking them from I would say; but others can judge.

  23. Sorry didn’t mean to interrupt your private debate with Paul

    Just seemed your position wouldn’t be out of place in the Lone Star State

  24. Mind you if you just watched them and didn’t shoot them you would have been thought a pinko bleeding heart liberal

  25. @Paul Croft

    I have never said that all people that do not register are workshy, criminal or feckless. You chose to interpret my words that way.

    Let me make myself absolutely clear as you seem to have a problem understanding me.

    1. I am not bothered about people who do not register for whatever reason, losing their franchise. To me thats their loss not mine.
    2. I have no respect indeed contempt for the criminal, the feckless and the workshy in general, not in specific relation to registration.

    I hope that is clear now. As I say please do not put words in my mouth or try and mock me with silly scenarios as you did last night.

  26. @Steve

    Instead of trying to be funny about other peoples fundamental beliefs why not say you disagree politely.

  27. AMBIVALENT.
    Interesting news.

    Probably a fall in the LD VI and UKIP.

    Their numbers seem rather high if we start thinking about GE numbers, I tink.

  28. @Jim Jam / Graham

    Three charts…

    Historical UK GE majorities, 1945-Present:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/hist-maj.png

    No Scotland:

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/noscot-maj.png

    Changed Elections:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/maj-chg.png

    1964: Lab OM of 4 changes to Con OM of 1
    1974 (Feb): Lab minority of 33 changes to Con minority of 12
    1974 (Oct): Lab OM of 3 changes to Lab minority of 8
    2010: Con minority of 36 changes to Con majority of 21

    In other words, 2010 has been the most affected election since 1945, due to the way Scotland voted. However, for anyone to complain about Scotland, would be like Labour voters blaming the South East for Conservative majorities.

  29. @Jim Jam / Graham

    Three charts…

    Historical UK GE majorities, 1945-Present:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/hist-maj.png

    No Scotland:

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/noscot-maj.png

    Changed Elections:

    h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/maj-chg.png

    1964: Lab OM of 4 changes to Con OM of 1
    1974 (Feb): Lab minority of 33 changes to Con minority of 12
    1974 (Oct): Lab OM of 3 changes to Lab minority of 8
    2010: Con minority of 36 changes to Con majority of 21

    In other words, 2010 has been the most affected election since 1945, due to the way Scotland voted. However, for anyone to complain about Scotland, would be like Labour voters blaming the South East for Conservative majorities.

  30. TOH

    Is your middle name Job by any chance ?

  31. Jim Jam,
    In 1964 Scotland returned 43 Labour MPs and 24 Tories. Thus the Labour lead of 19 seats exceeded Labour’s UK lead of 13. The Feb 74 figures were – Lab 40 – Con 21 – UK lead – 5.
    In 1950 and Oct 74 without Scotland Labour would have been denied an overall majority but still remained the largest party.

  32. I was musing last night about my beief that, despite being bonkers, women are a lot nicer than men, as a general rule.

    That led me to looking up UK prison numbers and there are around 20 times more men in jail than there are women and mstly for far more serious offences.

    Most of the womed had very, very difficult childhoods and backgrounds and 20% were living rough when convicted of whatever they had done that was illlegal. Is jail really the best that society can offer them?

    I have no doubt that most would appear either “criminal, feckless or workshy”, and possiby all three. What concerns me about the word “contempt” is how easy it is to spread it more and more widely – and I am talking in very general terms here, completely outside of the recent discussion. For example, to people with long hair, crew-cuts, disabled, ethnic minorities, gays and so on and so on, all of which has been the case in my lifetime.

    Personally I do believe in the concept of “evil” but believe that to be rare. As for terms like “skivers, shirkers, feckless” perhaps instead of immediately applying such epithets to our felow human beings, society could be more generous and investigate the circumstances that may have led to such behaviour.

    We are absolutely NOT all born equal and to apply mores and rules as though we are all equaly advantaged is, in my view, both wrong and misguided.

  33. @Colin

    Sorry, not very religious, for me JOB is a great piece of music by Vaughan Williams. Could you explain?

  34. TOH

    He name is forever linked to the virtue of patience – a “virtue” you have displayed in abundance if I may so.

  35. Could you cancel my post please, its been in moderation for nearly 4 hours so it’s sort of missed the boat.

  36. Colin

    Many thanks, actually not something I am normally known for. It’s just I hate having words put into my mouth or used out of context to make some point or other.

    Things are looking on the up generally, which together with the fine weather is lifting the spirits generally. Roll on the next test Match.

  37. Colin/TOH

    Feckless and workshy – good job the Royals aren’t allowed to vote then isn’t it!

    I would like a definition of these please seeing TOH has deemed them unfit to be allowed to vote. The only definition he seems to give is that filling in the form makes one full of feck and work enthusiasm

    The reason why there have been lots of posts about this is that it is such a weak argument.

  38. TOH

    I read exactly into your posts as Paul and others. Be more careful in how you express yourself if you don’t want your views misunderstood

  39. I have just retread my first post and realise I was wrong in what I put.

    I moved off topic onto ‘allowed to vote’ and should have put ‘used for te the definition of constituencies’

  40. @BCrombie

    Another one putting words into my mouth, I never said they should not be allowed to vote, I said if they lost their vote because they did not register it was their loss not mine.

    Try looking up fecklass and workshy in the dictionary. Very easy concepts to understand.

    As far as the Royals are concerned, although privilaged most of them probably work much harder than either you or I, so we do not agree on that either.

  41. bcrombie

    “I have just retread my first post ”

    Should have gone to kwik-fit-fitters

    By the way it makes me smirk, chuckle and chortle when others dive in to take sides without managing to add a single substantive point whilst doing so.

    Who says the art of debate is dead?

    Oh bugger………….. it was me.

  42. “Try looking up fecklass”

    Nope – can’t find it Howard. Give us a clue…..

    A lass with lots of feck maybe??

    A Northern girl of easy virtue???

    I give in.

  43. TOH

    Indeed-hoping for 5 nil.

  44. @Colin,

    Yes 5-0 would be great but I cannot believe the Aussie’s will be as bad third time round. Mind I am hoping that our batting will be much improved. The capatain could do with some big runs now.

  45. TOH

    ( Just watched Mo destroy the field again-what an athlete.)

    I agree-the Aussies are always dangerous & I’m sure Cook will not take them for granted.
    Yes-he & Trott need to start contributing runs.

  46. Paulcroft

    “So out of place and dull”

    At last we agree.

  47. Regarding the affect of an independent Scotland on Westminster (earlier in the thread) – the only post war election that would have changed result by not having Scotland was 1964

    It was a small Labour Majority, and would have changed to a Minority Conservative Government theoretically or put the Conservatives in the driving seat to form a coalition.

  48. Apologies all, effect not *affect*

  49. @paul,

    By the way it makes me smirk, chuckle and chortle when others dive in to take sides without managing to add a single substantive point whilst doing so.
    ……………….

    I thought last night you were taking a principled stance against this sort of language ‘it make me laugh etc’ when starting sentences. How quickly you forget when you want to get in a dig at a centre right poster….

  50. So demonstrations and arrests around fracking, HS2 in the high court, possibly supreme and European court to come. Makes me wonder if any Govt is going to have a smooth ride with big capital infrastructure spending going forward. This isn’t a comment on the merits of the above two items, more that if we look at the Conservatives, and actually more so Labour who are promoting borrowing for large scale infrastructure programmes and building, it makes you wonder how many will ever get off the ground, and whether the actual cost is much higher and the timescales much longer.

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