This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%. The four point Labour lead follows a lead of seven points yesterday and three points on Monday. Normal caveats apply about taking a single poll out of context – a four point lead is clearly towards the lower end of YouGov’s current range – but the underlying average does appear to be falling. Full tabs are here.

While I’m here, I’m seen comments on twitter getting excited/concerned about today’s poll showing the Conservatives ahead amongst under 25s. This is something I wrote about last month. The brief version is that age cross breaks are only small so have large margins of error, especially for under 25s which tends to be the smallest age group with the largest proportion of don’t knows or wouldn’t votes. This means figures for under 25s are extremely volatile, and will swing about wildly from day to day. Taking just one unusual looking one is extremely misleading! Looking at the trend in YouGov’s recent polls it is very clear that, on average, Labour still enjoy a solid lead amongst under 25s.


225 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 39, LD 8, UKIP 11”

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  1. Colin

    I was of course referring to the nature of our monetary system, your parents lived under a slightly different system where there was more real money ie gold but also bank notes, today’s money is almost all digital debt money, assuming that everyone stoped borrowing money tomorrow, govt business and individuals, it would take probably less than 5 years before we had no money at all except for notes and coins

  2. PAULCROFT

    “I would assume because, as I intimated above, your post lacked any point. It is just snide for the sake of it and is increasingly tiresome to see”
    ______

    Oh matron at it again.

    Yes and I find many of your comments fall under this category too, that’s why I generally ignore them.

  3. Sine Nomine

    Now now gentlemen – calm down.

    Now, i’ll give you something to talk about because i’m off to bed.

    Tomorrows YouGov/Sun Poll – Labour Lead 3%
    Con 35% Lab 38% LD 10% UKIP 10%

    Thats my bit of fun -lol – Night :)
    ____________

    It’s put a big smile on my face. :)

    3% lead..WoW!!

  4. It’s instructive to read Andrew Neill’s excellent article – apropos his interview on climate change – in which he makes it very clear that the job of an interviewer is to challenge views with other, opposite ones and that ALL interviewees should feel the need to defend their own position. That is why they are on.

    PMQs is just a rabble and no example at all – leaving aside that it’s supposed function is the questioning of the current PM.

  5. “Thats my bit of fun -lol – Night :)”

    Bugger – won’t be able to sleep for chortling.

  6. PAULCROFT

    “in which he makes it very clear that the job of an interviewer is to challenge views with other, opposite ones and that ALL interviewees should feel the need to defend their own position. That is why they are on”
    …….

    ““SMukesh

    @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “Not as defensive as Alex Salmond when he was revealed to be a Murdoch lobbyist”
    _____

    Okay lets agree on Andrew Neill’s excellent article so on his hypothesis Alex Salmond was no more defensive than Ed Ball?

  7. Alex Salmond wasn’t particularly defence about Murdoch.

    Salmond wanted more BSkyB jobs in Glasgow and Murdoch indicated that the takeover would be good for Jobs in Scotland, so Salmond was in favour of the takeover.

    Similarly when Amazon was looking at where to set up it’s depot Salmond lobbied for Lothian over the South east even though Amazon pay no tax. How much tax Amazon pay is out with his control, where they put their depot he can influence.

    He also buttered up Donald Trump to get a billion pound Golf course that some people don’t like and then allowed a wind farm off the coast that sent him crazy, but we still got his billion!

    Oddly when Salmond does this he is portrayed as some kind of second hand car salesman but when Cameron or Boris try to get an investment in London instead of New York or Paris, they are fighting Britain’s corner.

    Blair went all the way to Australia to meet Murdoch and prevented the investigation of British Aerospace in the case of Saudi brides because it wouldn’t have been in the national interest.

    As for Cameron well I heard a rumour that he had once met Rebecca Brooke’s.

    So there you have it, Alex Salmond will sup with the devil to get jobs and investment for Scotland.

    You make your own minds up as if he uses a longer spoon than others and if any of those making a big deal of him meeting the Murdoch’s would have done anything different.

    As with much of the debate about who’s leader is best or who is the shadier I am happy if the evidence is balanced and fair but can’t take the partisan attacks. I’ve never thought Alex Salmond was a saint but I doubt he’s a demon either.

    Peter.

  8. Labour has peaked and Scotland is off.

  9. “Okay lets agree on Andrew Neill’s excellent article so on his hypothesis Alex Salmond was no more defensive than Ed Ball?”

    Ed BallS.

    Having seen neither I won’t offer points out of ten but the general principle holds obviously. You don’t get someone on and say:

    “Blimey, your figures on global warming look dead worrying. Would you like to bang on about them for 15 mins while I have a cup of tea?”

    You challenge them, they defend.

    Mind you I wouldn’t take Rich’s version of EB’s interview as being from a neutral standpoint in any case.

  10. PETERCAIRNS

    If I was to pick a politician in the UK who would not be bought by any media tycoon then it would be the First Minister.

    Sure like you say he’s not a saint but I do trust him regardless of his politics and his biggest problem in Scotland is the lack of a credible opposition.

  11. “Scotland is off.”

    I thought I smelt something.

    LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    [I’ll get me coat……………………….]

  12. PAULCROFT

    I agree.

  13. On PMQ’s it’s just that the best form of defence is sometimes attack.

    If you don’t want your opponent to ask you difficult questions make him answer yours instead.

    You make your choice as to whether it is a good thing or not.

    Is it a problem with the format?
    Does it show that Cameron is weak and doesn’t have the Answers?
    Does it show Miliband is good that he forces Cameron to ask?
    Does it show Cameron I’d clever to turn the tables on Miliband?
    Does it show Miliband is poor because Cameron turns the tables?
    Is it the speakers fault.

    Die hard Tory view; Clever Cameron out foxes Miliband.
    Die hard Labour view; Strong Miliband corners weak Cameron?

    Peter.

  14. @Paul Croft – Ha,ha, but don’t give up the day job!

  15. PCairns

    Not sure Salmond needs any defending.

    If I wanted someone to win in a “Being Interviewed” competition he’d be my number one choice.

  16. @PETER

    I just think the simple solution is to change the title to Prime Minister`s Answers.

  17. Bill C

    “Labour has peaked and Scotland is off”
    _____

    To be honest I think it will be just a matter of time. Either the Scots will go for it or it will be a push and a shove by the senior partner as was the case with the Czechoslovakian split.

  18. No Sun Politics tweet tonight so tomorrows poll must show a Labour lead of more than 5%.

    I reckon AW should have a word with Tom Newton-Dunn to tell him to stop playing politics with YG polls. The Sun only seem to be interested in good polls for the Tories. If there was a Labour lead of 15% tonight, there would not be a Sun Politics tweet, but a Labour lead of less than 5% and there is a tweet.

  19. AC

    “PAULCROFT

    I agree”

    With what? Or don’t you know?

    By the way, how many did you have working with you on the “Sweaty summer for Ed” joke?

    That was brilliant: probably the pick of the day I’d say

  20. “Die hard Tory view; Clever Cameron out foxes Miliband.
    Die hard Labour view; Strong Miliband corners weak Cameron?”
    ______

    Well not being in any of the two camps I would still give it to DC by a huge country mile. ;-)

  21. Bill C

    @Paul Croft – Ha,ha, but don’t give up the day job
    ______

    He’s retired so please don’t deny him his crosswords.

  22. @Allan Christie – Been a big move to the YES vote in recent weeks, secretly being encouraged by “call me Dave”; hence you are right on both counts.

  23. Just reading a very interesting article.

    More evidence that Labour is heading for defeat

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

  24. Bill

    That’s interesting, I’ve always said that support for independence would rise with Tory VI but I didn’t expect the correlation to be so immediate

  25. @Allan Christie – It’s a stick on. Labour are now a laughing stock in Scotland. Even the police are laughing at them, especially around the Falkirk area.

  26. @AC
    Why are you so obsessed with Labour?

  27. BILL C

    I hope whatever the Scots decide will be based on the right reasons. The Better Together or whatever it’s called even had leading Scots Tories rubbishing some of the stuff they came out with. regarding mobile phone tariffs

    At least YES Scotland has a vision and I really do expect the final result in 2014 to be a lot lot closer than some people think.

    I’m on the fence at the moment if I’m being honest with independence but I don’t like scaremongering but do like a vision.

  28. SMukesh

    @AC
    ” Why are you so obsessed with Labour?”
    _______

    No more obsessed with Labour than your average Labour supporter on here is with the Tories.

    Don’t worry I do Coalition bash quite well over welfare reforms so it’s not all about Labour.

  29. Phil Haines

    Just reading a very interesting blog.

    More evidence that Allan Christie is a Scottish Conservative.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7880#comments
    ________

    Oh dear please try harder. I would sooner give my left kidney than support that shower of crooks sitting in Hollyrood.

  30. Bill C

    @Allan Christie – It’s a stick on. Labour are now a laughing stock in Scotland. Even the police are laughing at them, especially around the Falkirk area
    ______

    Halloween must had come early!

  31. Two tweets from Mike Smithson re. By election

    Mike Smithson [email protected]

    CON takes Kingston Beverley from LDs – a big result for the blues

    Mike Smithson [email protected]

    Amazingly the local media in Kingston Beverley ran an exit poll during today’s by’election. See here http://goo.gl/wAbfW9

  32. Mike Smithson [email protected] 8m

    Full result Kingston Beverley Lab 717 LD 760 Tory 1033 GRN 207 Ukip 223 CON gain from LD

  33. katie

    Another shocker for the Lib/Dems.

  34. He’s retired so please don’t deny him his crosswords.
    ———
    Paul is a musician & they never retire; & he seems to save his cross words for you, AC – he’s really nice to everybody else ;-)

  35. @Allan C
    “I would sooner give my left kidney than support that shower of crooks sitting in Hollyrood.”

    You value your right kidney far more than your left, methinks.

  36. AMBER STAR

    Yeah I have noticed that lol. I think he only reads my posts when I’m having a go at Labour but seems to ignore the ones when I have a go at the Tories. I’m sure he is a really nice person………..away from his keyboard… ;-)

  37. Phil Haines

    @Allan C
    “I would sooner give my left kidney than support that shower of crooks sitting in Hollyrood.”
    ….
    “You value your right kidney far more than your left, methinks”
    _______

    Pure coincidence ;)

  38. Katie

    The Kingston b/e had very (cough) ‘unusual’ circumstances so its no surprise to see the LDs lose there.

    More info on the circumstances at:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22883414

  39. Chordata

    Thanks for that it puts in perspective, a real scalp for the Tories

  40. Actually the Kingston result looks like a very good result for Labour!

  41. Well looking at the local election results tonight it seems clear that UKIP has clearly faded, and faded quite significantly.

    Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/2884/elections-25th-july-2013?page=3#ixzz2a6pJFz9p

    So I guess that answers the question of which polling companies are now getting UKIP right.

    If anything it looks like all companies may now be overstating UKIP numbers?

    (With caveat that local election results are meaningless as Anthony has taken great pains to educate me on, but I do like to look at the trends, and the trend this week is clearly down, and down significantly.)

  42. Latest YouGov/The Sun results 25th July – Con 32%, Lab 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 11%; APP -27

  43. @Graham

    Actually the Kingston result looks like a very good result for Labour!

    Only in a sense. Labour, LibDems and the Greens poll may more the Conservatives and UKIP. It doesn’t look to me as if this is somewhere they are going to win. So unless they can get their minds round voting libdem. they may well let the Tories in. (It could of course be that the remaining Libdems get their minds round voting Labour but that seems to me unlikely in places where they won last time)

  44. I think Katie knows the circumstances of the by-election perfectly well. It was a strong result for Labour in normally pretty poor territory.

  45. No tweet tonight – cons back at 32%.
    Prediction for tomorrow – lab 38 con 32 lib 10 Ukip 12
    July 25th, 2013 at 10:23 pm

    ……………………………………….

    I thank you

  46. PETER CAIRNS

    @”Not so sure about the “Escape Velocity” plan.”

    One imagines Mr. Carney will be devastated to learn that.

  47. AMBER

    @”he seems to save his cross words for you, AC ”

    Not entirely Amber !

    He calls them ” snide comments masquerading as banter” ( when others make them )

  48. So there’s been a narrowing of a couple of points in recent weeks, mainly because of a Con increase and UKIP decline. What it seems Labour should do is keep trying to drive the wedge between those supporters over things like Europe. I know UKIP supporters don’t care that much about it but if the Tories look divided, UKIP gains.

  49. The shift from before the budget though is significant with Labour supporters now please/relieved with a 6% lead saying something.

    With 3 x 39% and 2 x 38% in this weeks YG safe to say Labour between these 2 levels but the Tory score harder to judge with 3 x 32% and 2 x 35%?

  50. Type Miliband into a Google news search and you will get two pages of stories about Unite. Pictures of Len McCluskie and Karen Murphy crowd out the Labour leader.

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