The Sun politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov poll already, the topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. This is the lowest Labour lead YouGov have shown for over a year, and the highest Conservative share since the end of the January. I’ll just give my normal caveat for any poll showing unusual figures – sure, it could be the start of a further narrowing of Labour’s lead, or it could just be normal variation within the margin of error. Don’t get overexcited unless it’s maintained in polls later this week.


227 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 38, LDEM 11, UKIP 10”

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  1. @ Turk

    Not really that interesting. UKIP down since their last poll (19% to 14%, but their last poll was a while back), but still a lot higher than other firms so still same trend, different polling companies showing very different UKIP numbers.

    As a result Tories are lower than what other pollsters are showing.

    I have tried to understand why different pollsters come up with different results, but given up. I used to think it was some down weighting UKIP, but Anthony corrected me on that, and I see TNS also weights down UKIP.

    So in line with house effects, seems to be no real movement.

    Now we have some pollsters saying UKIP voters have gone back to Tories, some not. Will have to wait a while to see who is right.

  2. “It’s much more fun here”

    ———-

    Except for automod…

  3. Labour on the charge Nick?

  4. “Labour on the charge Nick?”

    I guess they must be…must be the good weather, royal baby, Murray feelgood factor, Ashes…makes everybody a wee bit more, well, socialist.

  5. Ambiv – agree but the starting point is a further 2% or so narrower lead fro Lab over Tories before the other factors you mention.

  6. Am confused by the tables what is TNS headline reported VI please.

  7. Wonder what the righties will make of that TNS poll – more headstratching at Tory HQ I predict

  8. In other polling news it appears that people don’t trust the press much: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jul/23/press-regulation-government-press-industry (Sorry for the Guardian link AW, but it is a YouGov poll!)

  9. Headline numbers are:

    CON 28% (+1)
    LAB 38% (+2),
    LD 9% (+1),
    UKIP 16% (-3)

  10. The TNS BRB poll tables look very thorough to me. As an online poll, I am struggling to see the differences of approach with YouGov.

  11. Richard

    Must agree with your appraisal. I’m sure they know what their doing most of the time, but I’ve given up trying to understand how pollsters arrive at different conclusions to the same subject, but I suppose it’s all that +/- stuff..

    I suppose the answer is just look at the trends over a period of time and as you say wait and see.

  12. I suppose we now require a Peter Kellner post to explain why a 10% poil lead in TNS BRB is in fact identical to the YouGov one (plus min 3%).

  13. Okay, the questions in the last section of the Ashcroft union poll, section 14. Any particular reason these particular questions were chosen? One of them is clearly union-related, but the others?…

  14. Turk
    I see we agree (great minds and all that?).

  15. Carfrew
    Could you either ‘expand and discuss’ or kindly give me the link please?

  16. @Howard

    Well Colin posted the link earlier in the thread but here it is anyways…

    http://multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/prne/operations/Lord-Ashcroft-Unite-members-poll-summary.pdf

  17. @AmbivalentSupporter

    As you say anything is possible at this stage. I have always believed that the Tories will have a small but workable majority after 2015 but its just a gut feeling I have based on my expectation of what shape the economy will be in, and the failure so far of Labour to demonstrate a sensible alternative economic agenda.

  18. @carfrew

    Looks like wedge politics… the questions in section 14 are designed to show that (apart from nationalisation, and austerity to a lesser extent) members oppose Unite’s policy positions.

    Ashcroft’s commentary:

    h
    ttp://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/07/lord-ashcroft-len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour.html

  19. @Billy Bob

    Ah, so they are all Unite policies then? Are there other policies members might be more favorable towards that have been left out, or is it a comprehensive list?

  20. @carfrew

    I should think so. Fwiw Crosby gets an honourable (or should that be dishonourable) mention on the Wikipedia pages for both “wedge” and “dog-whistle” politics.

    Ashcroft may be Crosby’s rival, but he knows which way the wind blows when it comes to Conservative strategy.

  21. @Statgeek, @Laszlo, @Howard, @BCrombie

    Thank you: I take your point.

    rgdsm

  22. Thanks Carfrew (and thus Colin).

    None of the views surprised me from what is essentially a blue collar (c2s?) based union membership.

    Sort of Ernie Bevin stuff (perhaps they would do better to have an Ernie back again?).

  23. CROSSBAT 11.
    good evening to you.
    Good summers in 1955, 1959 and 1964 helped swing back to the Cons.

    Yes, I think Mac did say that about a good summer.

    TNS v You Gov. Cannot both be good ?

  24. Martyn
    yes but what do the fly boys do?

  25. @Billy Bob

    Yeah, I imagine Unite might be quite keen on things like government investment for jobs and stuff. I just took a gander at their conference newsletter and they don’t seem keen on the bedroom tax either…

  26. @Howard

    No probs. To be honest I’ve been a bit surprised at the support for nationalisation, even more so when one sees similar amongst Ukip supporters…

  27. @ Howard

    Air Force Act 1955 – the same as the Army.

  28. Chrislane,
    In 1955 the election was in May – the summer was too late to help the Tories!. Have to say I don’t recall 1964 as such a brilliant summer.

  29. @CL45

    If the “actual” lead is 6-7% the polls are just outside MOE.

    What all current polls show is an unwind of Tory defectors to UKIP. But the really interesting thing is that despite UKIP largely.comprising disaffected Tories, Labour defectors to UKIP are stubbornly refusing to return. This may we why Lab is fixed in the 38-39 zone.

  30. Spearmint
    I don’t like to place my reputation, at betting, at risk by making a prediction that is too far in advance to be a good estimation. I will go with 36+ by Budget 2014.

  31. “reg of the bnp”

    “reputation …at risk”

    ha ha ha

    I wouldn’t put your house on your fascist mates getting a single seat anywhere, if I were you.

  32. ToH

    You forgot to say imo.

    ”the failure so far of Labour to demonstrate a sensible alternative economic agenda”

  33. GRAHAM

    Thanks!

    1970 GE o dear. The Chelsea Goalie was the one wot lost it.

  34. By this time last evening we had a Sun Tweet but not tonight so my guess the latest YG is no so bad for Ed – maybe a reversion to YG mean 6-7% lead.

  35. NickP

    Where I live people are not so narow-minded as to judge a person by other members of a party they belong – reputations are built on the persons characteristics and position in life. Where you live it would seem to be different. I feel for you. I never suggested betting anything ON anything as I don’t believe in gambling. I will make a bet but no money or anything else will be involved.

    (My gut feeling is that you don’t judge people by other members of their political party, but rather you were annoyed that I was willing to place a bet on a scenario you don’t particularly like to accept as possible.)

  36. @ Reg

    Surely a bet without any money or anything thing else on it is not a bet?

  37. Catmanjeff
    I’ll accept that is you can give me a better name for it.

  38. Isn’t that the definition of a “sportsman’s bet”?

  39. I’ve never liked sportsman’s bets…sort of cowardly :)

  40. I really don’t like it when people judge you based on political allegiance, it’s petty, and something I have to say I see from the left quite a bit, sadly.

    My best friend at Uni was a massive lefty, and we had a right laugh, even though our political views were polar opposite.

  41. Catmanjeff
    How else would you like me to work it?

  42. @Rich

    I really don’t like it when people judge you based on political allegiance, it’s petty, and something I have to say I see from the left quite a bit, sadly.

    My best friend at Uni was a massive lefty, and we had a right laugh, even though our political views were polar opposite.

    I see it from both sides equally.

  43. “something I have to say I see from the left quite a bit”

    ———-

    Lol…

  44. @Reg

    I was only jesting…if you work it whatever way you enjoy best, I will be happy.

  45. @Neil A

    Indeed.

    Also, they used to say that gambling debts were not enforceable and “binding in honour only”

  46. @ Reg,

    Hey, you already set the terms several threads ago: average Labour lead on UKPR down to 4% by this December. You’re not wriggling out of it now!

    What are the stakes, though? Not money, obviously, but I agree with the others: it’s lame if there’s no forfeit. I take it you’re not enamoured of my “Loser has to say something nice about the winner’s party leader” suggestion.

  47. Spearmint

    I have offered two seperate bets. The first is that the Labour lead will be down to four or less by Christmas and the second is that the Tories will be 36+ by Budget 2014. I am trying to think up something I can bet on which wont endanger my reputation as a non-gambler too much.

  48. JIM-JAM

    Mine too.

    It will work like that though won’t it, if , as seems likely there is no one dramatic issue , but an amalgam of things.

    If the Lab lead is falling over time it will be a zig-zag downward path around a declining mid-point-not a dramatic & permanent fall.

    ……or vice versa-of course.

    Question is-is there another step down beyond 3 at some point ?

  49. Laszlo
    Good research. I knew it first hand but had wondered perhaps if the laws had been changed on this ‘allegiance’ thing, since I was involved. I believe this is why the RN is called the ‘Senior Service’. That accolade looks a bit jaded now, especially if one agrees that the submarine ‘deterrent’ is just a gesture (If).

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