The Sun politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov poll already, the topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. This is the lowest Labour lead YouGov have shown for over a year, and the highest Conservative share since the end of the January. I’ll just give my normal caveat for any poll showing unusual figures – sure, it could be the start of a further narrowing of Labour’s lead, or it could just be normal variation within the margin of error. Don’t get overexcited unless it’s maintained in polls later this week.


227 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 38, LDEM 11, UKIP 10”

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  1. (reposted with closed tag)

    @BCROMBIE
    “…Are you suggesting the Armed Forces would support the monarchy against the will of the people in Parliament if it was decided to abolish…”

    The job of the armed forces is to defend the interests of the Crown. So in the event of the Crown vs. the Will of the People, legally the armed forces should side with the Crown. Whether they would in practice is debatable, to put it mildly!…:-)

    rgdsm

  2. @Martyn

    British Army Oath of Allegiance:

    “I, (Insert full name), do swear that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God.”

  3. Another:

    Citizenship Oath of Allegiance:

    I… swear by Almighty God that, on becoming a British citizen, I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second, Her Heirs and Successors according to law.

  4. I give up my computer is having a moment

  5. @ Martyn

    Indeed, the officers of the British Army are the private army of the queen paid for by the tax payers.

    However, there are historic precedents when officers took various oaths during service around the world – e.g. Eastern Europe – without resorting to odd measures.

    It can be done in the UK, simply replacing Brenda and her successors with ” my country” or “homeland”. There’s still a problem with some mercenaries though even then.

  6. Another post I have made has not shown up here

    Interesting that I would have to be economical with the truth in order to become a member of a number of public bodies, including the army, air force and police. Very strange isn’t it?

    I actually decided from applying to become a JP for this very reason, and I would not be able to become a British citizen if I wasn’t already.

    I refuse to pledge an oath to an individual (not even the institution) which I could not fulfil

    If you take the pledge to be literal then we have no rights at all to remove the monarchy now or in the future

    As with all these things, the argument is ‘don’t take it literally’ so if this is not the case then change it to something unambiguous acknowledging the democratic will of the people of the UK as being paramount

  7. Actually, I think if the salary is not paid, the oath is void.

  8. Do you think we spend to much time debating what party extra votes come from when the VI of a party goes up.

    I think voters are in three main groups first core voters who are very unlikely to change party no matter what.

    Second those who regularly vote for the same party but in unusual circumstances will change to another party.

    Lastly that rump of voters that hold no allegiance to any party and who’s VI floats from one party to another throughout the term of a government to the day of the GE.

    It’s this last group who will make the difference between sucess or failer in the next election if Ukip support continues to fall and the second group loses interest in them.

    The problem for political leaders is that group of uncommitted voters are a unpredictable lot and are much more likely to take notice of media hype or base there vote on the personality or popularity of the party leader or their performance on a tV debate, rather than look at detail of party policy. The problem for pollsters is defining how large this group really is.

    My suspicion this time round is the floating voter has risen in size since 2010. I have no polling evidence for this other than the inability of any political party to establish a substantial lead in the polls and the continuing unpopularity of all things political with the general public.

    I’ve been following politic’s since the sixties and I can’t remember a time when people were so disillusioned and disinterested in politics.

  9. Steve

    I’m not a vet but I think your mouse has got Perseveration.

  10. Turk

    I agree with most of what you wrote and think that apathy is going to win in 2015 – I think the media has not helped the politicians with the incessant demand to be on message continually and needing to respond reactively all the time.

    I think the interesting poll was that one done on who you would not vote for under any circumstances, which would be interesting to see repeated.

  11. The other thing that we all should remember is that the economic situation could be very different by 2015. I know that Tories are feeling a little more confident about the economy, but in all honesty i don’t think it’ll make a blind bit of difference.

    in essence the effort needed to paper over the growing cracks in the world economy is exhausting central banks. The debt problem is getting worse not better, and unlike in 2008 where it was the banks collapsing under the debt straign, now its banks plus their sovereign governments.

    We could avoid another big crash but from what I read the economic indicators all point to it coming soon and being far worse than 2008. Cameron’s EU problem on the backbenchers may be gone by 2015 if the Eurozone debt collapse all but rules further UK participation in Europe out by then. Which could have an interesting impact on VI.

  12. BILLY BOB
    “Gould, Mandelson, Harman et al were a permanent presence in the TV studios…” Until they (a) pissed off to Oz, (b) did for themselves with a friendly insder mortgage, and …hold on, she’s still there. And in the meantime there are Balls, Elspeth,and in the wings David when he comes back, Darling, GB, Tony ….Not Millyphiles? They’ll rally round.

  13. Gould was New Zealand, not Oz. But same principle…..

  14. @Ian Bailey

    Beacause of the way the media will present it the public are very unlikely to see ED M’s so called stategy as you see it.

  15. Good Afternoon All.

    School hols have started, all is right with the world, and I survived my 35th year of state school service.

    I think it was Macmillan who said a good summer was worth 50 seats.

  16. Just on a point of information, members of the RN do not swear allegiance to the Queen. This is because it is the Queen’s Navy and not that of anyone else (not so the Army). I don’t know about the Royal Air Force.

  17. Looks like the Conservatives are also having some results in cutting down on the compensation culture. I was wondering when a Govt would have the guts to look at this and the alleged huge volume of fraudulent accident and whiplash claims. I do think that they are starting to get some good results on some of the parts of our society that were getting out of hand. I can see why the polls are turning.

  18. @CL1945

    Macmillan could be right there, if the recent changes to VI are maintained. Lab have gone from a 50-100 majority to a 20-50 majority.

    @BCrombie

    Perhaps the media’s methods are part of the problem. They demand news, and if they get it, they look at ways to criticise it. The latter isn’t a bad thing, but the former is. Modern media and long-term political strategies don’t seem to work nowadays. We might end up with zero policies for the 57 months following an election, then they all come in the 3 months preceding the next. Or we could have shorter terms (is 3 years even workable?).

    @Ian Bailey

    I noticed that exports are back up to 2007 levels this quarter, although I don’t know if they were good in said year.

    @Howard

    I think the RAF is similar to the Army, because it started from the Royal Flying Corps, which was part of the Army.

  19. I see from EM today on sky today, that he now wants an enquiry into whether Crosby has lobbied DC on private health and alcohol after he’s denial over cigarette packaging today.

    Anybody would think that narrowing lead and Crosby’s advice to the Tory party has got EM worried, he certainly sounded a bit over heated.

  20. Ah ha!

    A word to avoid auto-mod. It rhymes with buying and means fibbing. I posted yesterday and preceded said word with ‘under’. Now I have another in there, and preceded the word with the letter ‘f’.

    Quite ‘Commons’ etiquette AW. :)

  21. Lynton Crosby: “I’ve never spoken to PM about tobacco”

    Apparently Mr Crosby has made this statement today a little Odd that Mr Cameron felt it impossible to say the same thing having been asked 3 times by Andrew Marr on Sunday.

  22. @Turk I don’t think the focus on Crosby has much to do with two out of line polls – especially as Crosby and other lobbyists especially in Health have been drawing Labour fire for a good while.

    The Tories used the subject of party funding reform to launch an attack on Labour’s links to the unions. They see Ed’s election thanks to union members as a weakness and want to push hard on the subject by trying to raise past demons of Union madness and link them directly to Ed.

    Polls don’t show Labour’s links with the unions as the big deal that the Tories might hope, but it does leave the door open to attack Tory links between government policy and the private businesses paying millions to the party – which is what Labour are doing. Frankly I think that the public care little about either Labour or Tory funding as they see politicians as essentially bent regardless of rosette colour.

  23. Rich – it’s one poll so wouldn’t get too excited. There’s been very little movement to Tory figures bar this one poll over recent weeks, this combined with a good set of headlines you would expect some bounce from. I do sense some nervousness from Tory HQ hence the ‘dog whistle’ politics of recent days.

  24. @steve that was exactly my reaction too. Only leaves further questions unanswered now

  25. A good summer…
    With the UKIP vote the Conservatives have a majority, but we do not know whether they will go back. Previous analysis on this site has shown that they come mostly from Cons, at least in the south of England. Others may be anti-Labour and anti-establishment northeners, but more information would help.

    My own guess is that most of the grumpy right-wingers would have drifted back to Cons – but just when they would have forgotten UKIP the 2014 Euro elections will remind them again.

    Maybe we just have to wait for what I think Macmillan called ‘events’, and I think there could be many of these. The world seems to be a rather unstable place at the moment, and reminders of 1913 are unsettling.

  26. @RICH – well said – i’ve always said no government has ever had the guts to even talk about it – DC took a gamble and its starting to pay off.
    Sadly some ‘innocents’ will get hurt along the way but this is so right in Principal at least.
    Some lefties are getting so rattled that the polls are narrowing at a point in the cycle when Labour should be really miles ahead – whatever gloss some on here attempt to paint – it just doesn’t look like Labour can do it.

  27. @TURK
    “I see from EM today on sky today, that he now wants an enquiry into whether Crosby has lobbied DC on private health and alcohol after he’s denial over cigarette packaging today.
    Anybody would think that narrowing lead and Crosby’s advice to the Tory party has got EM worried, he certainly sounded a bit over heated.”

    ———–

    Yes, yes, we get it, you don’t have to do it every day… If Labour are critical of Tories, it can have no merit, it must just be that they are running scared. Of course, if Tories are critical of Labour the same cannot apply…

  28. @Sine

    I think there’s an equally good argument that, given that Labour were unceremoniously turfed out only three years ago with 29% of the vote by an electorate who have not largely appeared terribly remorseful about it, we haven’t had a single term Government for over 30 years, the Labour leader is desperately unpopular, and that Blue Team partisans keep informing us that they’ve won the argument over welfare, education *and* the economy, that the Tories really ought to be miles ahead.

    In reality all this ‘the other team is doing terribly and should be worried’ drivel is pointless.

    We have two unpopular main parties who voters, largely, mistrust, a very unpopular third party, who voters seriously mistrust, a fourth party who voters really don’t actually want to see anywhere near power but who some people vote for because they don’t like the others and are cross about it and a relentlessly negative political climate full of opportunist attacks on political opponents.

    Neither the Tories or Labour currently look like credible election winners. That means they’re both doing badly. Let’s can the ‘people whose politics I disagree with are getting rattled’. Everyone’s rattled, you included.

  29. “In reality all this ‘the other team is doing terribly and should be worried’ drivel is pointless.”

    —————–

    +1

  30. @CHRIS

    Quite well put Chris – and you are probably correct that we are all rattled.
    In fact you might be a little rattled that i’ve more or less agreed with you -lol
    Mainly to stop you in your tracks from coming right back at me – good fun though eh? -lol

  31. I would ask LC if he has ever spoken to the leader of the conservative party about those issues as none of his conversations with DC are with him as the PM.

  32. @Chris Lane 1945

    “I think it was Macmillan who said a good summer was worth 50 seats.”

    An interesting theory but difficult to prove if the General Election is held in May or, during the aforementioned good summer, there isn’t a General Election taking place at all.

    Or are you suggesting that the current good summer will pay dividends for the Government by the time we go to the polls in May 2015. What happens if it’s a terrible summer in 2014? Will Cameron pay a price the following year, or does the theory not work in reverse? What about a diabolical winter leading up to May? Or a dismal Spring. What’s the theory on seat implications then? How much is a mild winter worth in seat dividend terms? Less than 50? 20 perhaps?

    By the way, lyrical allusion aside, are you absolutely sure, Chris, that MacMillan ever said such a thing??

  33. @MacMillan – course he’s not but it’s still a good soundbite eh?

  34. A good summer…
    With the UKIP vote the Conservatives have a majority, but we do not know whether they will go back
    -Well as the Tories only managed 36% in 2010 and haven’t managed more than that for 21 Years they were never there in the first place.

    Around 30% of UKIP’s gain comes from the BNP anyway.

  35. @Steve – precisely there’s no chance on the Tories improving on their 2010 share – if they couldn’t win after 13 years of opposition, aftermath of deep recession and very unpopular leader what hope is there for 2015? Even Labour in 2001 against Hague didn’t improve their share from 1997.

    There’s is a lot of unanswered questions around Milliand and his figures are shocking compared to Cameron say in 2008 but don’t think this will be enough to save the Tories – there’s a lot of anti Tory sentiment in the public I’m picking up now that wasn’t there pre 2010. The best I reaslistically think they can hope for is holding a majority of their marginals and depriving Labour a majority but even that is a stretch. Personally I think the result will be similar, all be it with a smaller majority to that of 2005.

  36. Chris Riley,

    I agree and I’d add that only UKIP can really be happy with the polls over the last 12 months. Every other GB-wide party is within a spectrum from disaster to mediocrity. And I should add, to disclose that this doesn’t please me, that UKIP are almost a “greatest hits” of Tory party tendencies I dislike. It’s a cold hard fact that they’ve got from about 8% to 12% in VI.

    If there is sustained economic recovery, I can see the Tories getting a plurality of seats but not a majority. On the other hand, in the event of severe stagnation or a double-dip recession or even another crisis, I can see Labour winning by a curious landslike- curious, because it won’t be due to their own momentum, a kind of landslide that has become increasingly common across the globe since 2008.

    However, I don’t like to second guess the markets, which indicate a significant recovery in the UK and on balance I think we’ll see something like the last Australian elections, with either a Labour minority situation (with possible coalitions or other arrangements) or a small Labour majority in the 1-20 range. The fixed parliament system will make a coalition more likely in the former scenario, because 5 years of constant dealing is wearing and usually makes policy hopelessly squidgy.

  37. @ Colin

    Yes, it was an effective legislation on compensation (but it had nothing to do with compensation culture, merely that the insurance companies had better lobbyist than lawyers. Law firms needed the personal injury claim industry, because not enough crimes, family and corporate matters are around to support so many solicitors).

    A downside of it could (!) be that solicitors will refuse small, genuine personal injury claims (as they can’t recover their cost). And representing yourself in English (and Welsh) courts is a way to loose your case. So, it is possible that the number of claims could (!) reduce significantly, while the overall value could (!) increase.

  38. Sorry – previous was to @ Rich and not @ Colin

  39. Interesting the BBC are still banging on about babies.

    They opened a HYS on it which was closed within the Hour as the overwhelming number of comments were along the line of there were many babies born yesterday and why should we be celebrating and paying for one of them and ignoring the rest.

    Not exactly the sycophantic forelock tugging postings they were expecting so down it went!

    It’s much more fun here

  40. @Chris Riley,

    “We have two unpopular main parties who voters, largely, mistrust, a very unpopular third party, who voters seriously mistrust, a fourth party who voters really don’t actually want to see anywhere near power but who some people vote for because they don’t like the others and are cross about it and a relentlessly negative political climate full of opportunist attacks on political opponents.

    Neither the Tories or Labour currently look like credible election winners. That means they’re both doing badly. Let’s can the ‘people whose politics I disagree with are getting rattled’. Everyone’s rattled, you included.”

    Every eloquently put. Couldn’t agree more.

  41. Carfew

    Actually I’ve only mention him twice, he’s obviously upsetting you, so calm down dear, I try not to mention him again unless of course I want to.

    Ian Bailey.

    I quite agree, as I’ve said earlier today about public disconnection in the voting process.

  42. What’s up with all the resident lefties today? I thought you would be reading your souvenir copy of The Daily Mirror and getting in to the swing of things.lol

  43. Steve
    As a BNP member I would never consider going to UKIP although I have considered going back to Tory a number of times due to certain high-flying party members who I have yto say are among the most arrogant people I have ever met.

  44. Latest TNS BRMB poll gives Labour a 10 (TEN) points lead over the Tories. So it’s not all doom and gloom for us today!

  45. Richard.

    I read that TNS Poll what did you make of it.

  46. @ Chris Riley,

    A masterful summary of the situation.

    @ Steve and Chris Not-Riley,

    Much as I hate to rain on our parade, the Tories’ 2010 vote share is not their ceiling. Their ceiling is their 2010 vote share + 2 or 3% from the collapse of the Lib Dems, which disproportionately benefited Labour but has benefited them as well. This puts it at around 38-40%, which is the VI they were getting in polls in the early part of this Parliament.

    I don’t believe they’ll achieve that again until the general election, if then. Indeed, I’ve staked… well, something (what are we betting, Reg?)… on it. But it’s by no means theoretically impossible.

  47. I firmly believe that the UKIP will achieve 5-7% in the GE and a key question is how will the remaining 4% or so (YG) split especially Con-Lab, possibly a further 2% net gain for the Tories over Labour so for my money Lab 2-4% ahead (YG average) in real money as we approach the final third.

  48. NTNS BMRB Voting intentions poll shows CON 28% (+1), LAB 38% (+2), LD 9% (+1), UKIP 16% (-3), OTHER 9% (-1)

  49. @Jim Jam,

    Also, whether the Labour vote tails aways, and if any of the Lab vote goes to the Tories, or the Tories get a bit from the Libs. The Tories IMO are not limited to just a fall in UKIP vote.

    Of course, Labour could also get more disaffected Tory or Lib/UKIP voters too. I wouldn’t rule that out either. Anything’s possible at this stage.

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