The Sun politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov poll already, the topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. This is the lowest Labour lead YouGov have shown for over a year, and the highest Conservative share since the end of the January. I’ll just give my normal caveat for any poll showing unusual figures – sure, it could be the start of a further narrowing of Labour’s lead, or it could just be normal variation within the margin of error. Don’t get overexcited unless it’s maintained in polls later this week.


227 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 38, LDEM 11, UKIP 10”

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  1. Will look out for the rest of the week’s polls. Seems Cameron’s been getting a bit of publicity recently, while EM has been pretty much nowhere to be seen.

  2. Interesting – a second poll with Tories in the mid 30’s.

  3. No comment

  4. Fascinating! Can’t keep up with these poll swings! Does seem to be Tories scores bouncing up and down vs UKIP. Are YouGov still not prompting for the Kippers in the first question?

  5. I missed the Populus poll, but it’s worth mentioning that aside from the ICM 36%, this is the first non YG poll for three months to put Tories higher than 31%. Then we have tonight’s YG, and while YG do seem to be really rather volatile, there are clear signs of Tory VI on the move, even if Labour are holding reasonably steady.

    There was more positive news on consumer confidence today, which I suspect is the key underlying factor here, and it will be interesting to see how this develops in future. There is the semblance of stability in the world economy now, which may or may not last, but the UK consumer is definitely feeling better about the world, which nearly always helps the incumbent.

    The fly in the ointment is that prices are still outstripping wages by an unhealthy 2% – unless this is trimmed, or reversed, it’s really quite hard to see how consumers can remain feeling quite so confident.

  6. @Various
    Why can’t some people on here just accept that things are slowly turning the Conservatives way and the polls are now starting to reflect this fact.
    As AW warns it could of course be a one off and therefore as ever we must wait and see for some further poll evidence.
    Anyway for now – lol – :)

  7. “I’ll just give my normal caveat for any poll showing unusual figures”
    ______

    Yeah the Lib/Dem VI looks too high.

  8. I doubt Cameron’s policy on filtering pornography will have much effect (on polling and otherwise): the various positives and negatives will cancel each other out.

    As for the filter, it sounds like a good idea but a) his main target (child abuse) he wants to legislate against is already illegal and there are probably more effective means of dealing with this than with a general internet filter and b) the specifics of it aren’t clear, but it doesn’t sound like it will do that much

    @Martyn

    “We’re not talking about this?”

    It’s a boy – his name should be Batman. That is all.

  9. I sometimes have to fight back feelings of sympathy for DC, but then I remember he is paid for dealing with all his problems (or “backbenchers” as they are called).

    Can anyone seriously imagine that it is a good idea, with the Scottish referendum coming up, to force the pace in the renewal of Trident?

    Is it helpful to be pressing on with the TTIP treaty ceding sovereignty to international capitalism, (which will make the NHS privatisation irreversible) while aiming to repatriate powers from the EU to pacify the UKIP tendency?

    Even if you think that these are good policies, surely they are problematic with elections and referenda coming up and could be deferred to a more favourable time?

    Is it my error to expect that different parts of the Conservative party should be working towards the same objectives?

  10. @ Allan,

    You’re stealing Chris Lane’s line!

    So Tory VI is still rising, at least on YouGov. If it stays up I’ve have another look at the crossbreaks and try to see where it’s coming from (Ukip, obviously, but unless something calamitous has happened to Ukip I think some of this has to be from other sources).

  11. Something of interest to us- Ashcroft’s just polled Unite members on a bunch of stuff, including how many would opt in to affiliate with Labour. Results should be out tomorrow.

  12. @ Allan

    Yeah the Lib/Dem VI looks too high.

    This is the 12th 11 in the last 31 YG polls. It looks very normal to me.

    @ Spearmint

    So Tory VI is still rising, at least on YouGov. If it stays up I’ve have another look at the crossbreaks and try to see where it’s coming from (Ukip, obviously, but unless something calamitous has happened to Ukip I think some of this has to be from other sources).

    The only party to party correlation that is significant is Con to UKIP (-0.66). All other party combinations have no statistical correlation (based on the last 31 YG polls). The Con – UKIP has an standard error of 0.10, and needs to be above +/- 0.45 to be significant to a 99 % confidence interval.

    That is a very confident correlation!

  13. Posted in other thread (and went into moderation):

    I’ll take a guess that the underlying lead is 6% with a +/-3% MoE (we’ve seen 9% and 3% lately).

    We were seeing 6%-7% on average, so it’s definitely a ‘watch this space’.

  14. @CMJ

    London has seen the Labour lead get squeezed lately. All the sport, weather and so on, I expect.

  15. Apart from the standard explanation of “it’s just staistical noise”, Labour currently has two other interesting options of what or who to blame the results on:

    – Cricket
    – #RoyalBaby

    I wonder whether that’s enough excuse to not do anything…

  16. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “…Yeah the Lib/Dem VI looks too high…”

    * taps on shoulder with copy of “Mirror”
    * “You are Chris Lane and I claim my 10 shillings!”
    * wanders off, whistling a jaunty air. It’s Brighton Beach, 1963, and the seagulls are calling…

    rgdsm

  17. Not all the polls are good for the Tories.
    But an encouraging one does come through fairly often now.

    There is a danger that UKIP will shed votes to Labour aswell but my gut feel is the economy is coming to rescue.

  18. Looks as if a YES vote for Scottish independence is now a stick on. Must get to the bookies in the morning before they see this!

  19. @ANARCHISTS UNITE

    “…I doubt Cameron’s policy on filtering pornography will have much effect (on polling and otherwise): the various positives and negatives will cancel each other out…”

    I can’t help thinking that “VOTE CONSERVATIVE AND WE’LL STOP YOU SURFING PRON” may *not* be the vote winner they expect…:-)

    “…It’s a boy – his name should be Batman. That is all…”

    You mean…BECAUSE HE’S BATMAN!

    rgdsm

  20. Just wanted to congratulate you guys on the birth of the new royal prince. I think it’s a fairly big deal for you guys. Hope his birth is cause’ for good celebration.

    Btw, today’s royal birth announcement had the effect of disrupting the latest media circus press conference held by Gloria Allred to announce her latest crusade (she’s filing a lawsuit on behalf of a former staffer against San Diego Mayor Bob Filner for sexual harassment). The press conference, a typical Allred event, was lurid and dramatic in its details but coverage of it was quashed for coverage of the royal birth.

    Filner, with the current allegations against him and every local politico turning against him may very well be a goner, but he’s held on for another day perhaps in part to the newest addition of the British Royal Family.

  21. Good Morning All.
    School’s out for Summer!
    And we have a boy
    And the lead is only 3%
    And the Ashes are won
    And the Tour de France is won.

  22. My comment has gone into moderation possibly because of the ‘p..n’ word but all it said is that the Independent is suggesting there is a U turn on DC’s recent proposal on this issue.

  23. After a very short period DC admits there will be problems with the online adult industry ban and is being heavily criticised…. Independent news

    The other thing which is very alarming is… about local authority fracking controls…
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/fracking-controls-removed-in-dash-for-unconventional-energy-resources-8726869.html

  24. While the conservatives do seem to be edging up a bit Labour seems entrenched at around the high 30’s

    The only thing else apparently happening in the World yesterday was a woman having a baby

    I will give you one guess which of the 358,192 babies actually born yesterday was the only one according to the Media worthy of note and celebration.

  25. Socalliberal

    Completely indifferent to the birth of a baby to a couple of people I do not know and whio I have nothing in common with apart from being born on the same island as them.

    I am not sure why you would want to send congratulations to me?

    If this is worthy of ‘good celebration’ for any outside their friends and family then I think it says a lot about the British – not much of it very positive I am sorry to say.

  26. This poll is rather encouraging. Lets hop the Conservative charge doesn’t break with the weather. (It’s smashing it down here!)

  27. Steve,

    I would think as a statistical probability, one or two of those babies will become world-renowned for something!

  28. Steve

    Thats because out of the 358,192 babys born yesterday he is the only one who will be the future King of England.

  29. Mr Nameless

    Fingers crossed One of them might end up as the UK’s first elected head of state.

    I bet there is only one who can guarantee a life of physical comfort ,privilege,elitist education and extreme wealth paid for by the British people though.

    Nice to see us already forking out for a £1 million makeover of the Parents Kensington Apartment.

    There is a more important issue which I do think impacts the polls, that is the Media’s manipulation of the News to the agenda they feel we should find important rather than what is intrinsically important.

    We were instructed time after time yesterday about how the entire nation were celebrating and massive crowds had turned out (the crowd outside of Buckingham Palace appeared to be of similar size (hundreds) and similar make up (tourists) as appears every day for the changing of the guard ,mind you they don’t normally have hundreds of the media to keep them company.

    Any other news was reduced to a few words or the ticker tape or page 27 spliced in between the burning issues of how the sprog’s birth was to be announced and yet another voxpop of a tourist or slightly deranged fanatic asking them words to the effect of are you excited yet then waiting a few seconds if the reply didn’t seem sufficiently enthusiastic and asking what about now ?

    This is media manipulation and on more serious issues it is why it can influence the public’s perception of reality and their voting intention .

  30. Turk
    As the latest member of the Windsor clan will have to wait decades until it’s their turn who knows.

    Actually I don’t object to having a non political head of state and an appointed but essentially powerless head of state in the form of a King or Queen isn’t the worst option possible.

    It isn’t the best either.

  31. The Ashcroft Unite Poll is interesting :-

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/Unite%20members%20poll%20-%20Results%20summary.pdf

    Is EM’s plan going to cause him serious embarrassment. ?

  32. Labour has been on the defensive for some time (allowed their opponents and the media to set the agenda – union funding) – it could have an effect for the DK.

    I doubt that the lucky baby has anything to do with the conservative increase.

    By the way our local bookie didn’t take a £10 bet for the child name -Mo(hamed).

  33. JJB

    @”my gut feel is the economy is coming to rescue.”

    I think we have other evidence , in addition to your intestines :-

    “The DHL/BCC Trade Confidence Index rose to 118.12 in the quarter, compared with 114.8 in the previous quarter and a long-run average of 100.
    The survey of 1,700 businesses also showed that 48pc of exporters said sales increased in the three months to the end of June, compared with 10pc which said they decreased.
    More firms expect to hire this year, the survey showed, with 31pc of respondents stating they would employ more staff in 2013.
    John Longworth, director general of the BCC, said: “For the first time on record, these results are positive across the board. Export sales and orders have gone up, confidence is high and expectations around profitability have increased.”

    DT

  34. Irony speaks, in that my comment on Net Filtering has been automatically put into the moderation queue. I think that says more than I could have.

  35. Labour in a kind of stasis, as delineated by Rafael Behr more than a fortnight ago:

    h
    ttp://www.newstatesman.com/rafael-behr/2013/07/where-are-milibandites-when-ed-needs-them

    @Turk – ” …the future King of England.”

    There hasn’t been a King of England since 1702, possible though I suppose.

  36. And to be frank, ‘Net Filtering’ is a pretty poor policy to pursue. Even in the wildly more conservative Australia, a five year effort to mandate ISP to filter web content has failed and the government was forced to shelve legislation.

    Over here, with our legislatively and pro-actively protected privacy/speech rights, I can’t imagine how such legal mandates on web filtering could be drafted.

  37. All the movement is between the Tories and the others, Labour vote seems solid, 2015 seems like another Coalition coming up.

    Good weather, economy picking up, Royal Baby if that doesn’t help the Tories nothing will, however long winter months to go and that Labour vote looks very hard to crack.

  38. Predict that tomorrows poll will show the Tories back on 32% and Labour still around 39%.

    This poll I suggest is slightly out of line with the norm and while there have been some positive events, I am not sure that the Tories would benefit yet.

  39. @Chrislane1945 – “And the lead is only 3%”

    In one poll, 11% in another, three companies currently have Tories on 27 or 28%, and one has them level on 36%.

    On DC’s porn campaign – those who seek to highlight the carping criticism on this are, I believe, missing the point, in polling terms. I congratulate DC for actually trying to do something about what society has allowed to become a shocking tidal wave of abuse.

    We have increasingly listened to those mega corporations who run the internet and make billions in profit, and meekly accepted their line that they should be allowed to make vast profits from running platforms while not taking any kind of responsibility for the content they serve. They’ve dressed this up in the classic argument over liberal values, freedom, and all the other guff people who wish to turn a blind eye to abuse use when they would have to forgo some profits to tackle an issue.

    My only criticism of DC’s proposals is that they only target child abuse and access to porn by minors. The much bigger point is that porn itself is an assault on women, and study after study proves that attitudes and behaviour towards women deteriorates with increased access to porn. Psychological data is also very clear that porn harms the users, by making them less caring and more aggressive, and less able to hold proper relationships.

    So that’s my rage against the tide – impractical, untenable and impossible to deliver, I know, but nonetheless I’ll maintain my dignity as a human being and refuse to accept the inevitability of porn. But what of VI?

    I think DC has scored a big hit here. This matters to parents, and it sounds good, whatever the practicalities. My only gripe is that when people like Harriet Harman tried similar things, those in the press backing DC now made her a laughing stock.

  40. @AW – I have a post in mod, and I tried to cut out a part that might have been the cause, but to no avail. Not sure I’ve said anything wrong?

  41. The Media have already decided that the most important (only ) news story today is baby born yesterday.

    The Burning issue seems to be what will the sprog be named.

    Most royasuggest it will be a classical name.

  42. The Media have already decided that the most important (only ) news story today is baby born yesterday.

    The Burning issue seems to be what will the sprog be named.

    Most royasuggest it will be a classical name.

  43. The Media have already decided that the most important (only ) news story today is baby born yesterday.

    The Burning issue seems to be what will the sprog be named.

    Most royasuggest it will be a classical name.

  44. Guess the baby name.

    My first silly guess was Derek.

    But I think they will actually go for George.

  45. The Media have already decided that the most important (only ) news story today is baby born yesterday.

    The Burning issue seems to be what will the sprog be named.

    Most royal name pundits suggest it will be a classical name. Shame really I was quite looking forward to a Prince Tyler

    How about Caligula?

  46. How weird that it is the left leaning contributors here who seem obsessed with the name of the royal baby.

  47. @ Colin,

    Hilariously, the New Statesman is covering the Ashcroft poll under the headline: “Boost for Miliband: poll shows 170,000 Unite members would opt-in to join Labour.”

    I think there’s a grain of truth in both analyses- that’s a lot of new full members Labour could add to their party membership total and a landslide victory for Miliband in the new electoral college, but it would leave the party with serious funding problems.

    It just shows you how much of the reporting is spin, though!

  48. Statistical minutiae seem a little irrelevant to me, because these polls are only a snapshot of that day’s opinion.

    Are there any clearly enduring trends? Yes. The Labour voting intention is pretty constant at 38 to 40 – other than in a few polls which don’t really ‘believe’ a voting intention change since 2010 can be real. Those polls put Labour in the 34 to 36 range. The Libdem 10 percent rump is constant too. The Tories are all over the place, depending on how many people still remember UKIP, but they are lower, like Labour, in the polls that don’t ‘believe’ the Labour score.

    So – it seems to me – there’s a solid 38 to 40 (‘believe’ it or not) Labour segment of the population that won’t again risk handing power to a party that writes off the underprivileged by voting Libdem, and they will win the 2015 GE for Labour unless some new factor enters the calculations for the Tories. A huge economic turnaround might do it (people might well forget the underprivileged if they shrank to around 10 per cent of the populace) but feel-good PA seems unlikely to do so.

    As GE’s get closer, I always stop watching the polls and start watching the bookies’ odds, personally.

  49. Morning Everyone,

    Boy – there are some miserable Republican gits on here today.
    The new Prince is special because one day he will become King of Great Britain & Northern – UK -and all its other bits!
    Whether some people don’t care is of little consequence in the big scheme of things because at the moment the institution of Monarchy is strong and a big majority still want a Constitutional Monarchy.

    Now before AW steps in I must point out that it is all a part of a general ‘feel good factor’ that is trickling into society – nothing massive but its there along with other things people have mentioned earlier and although only small WILL and probably already IS affecting the polls – which is what we on this splendid site are here to dissect and chat about.

  50. Steve

    Do you ever get that feeling your repeating yourself.

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