The Sun politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov poll already, the topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. This is the lowest Labour lead YouGov have shown for over a year, and the highest Conservative share since the end of the January. I’ll just give my normal caveat for any poll showing unusual figures – sure, it could be the start of a further narrowing of Labour’s lead, or it could just be normal variation within the margin of error. Don’t get overexcited unless it’s maintained in polls later this week.


227 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 38, LDEM 11, UKIP 10”

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  1. @ Reg,

    Oh, okay. The first one is the one I took.

    Let me know when you think up some stakes (although whatever they are, I imagine they will have to take the form of “A comment in a UKPR thread”, so I doubt they’ll do too much damage to your non-gambling reputation. ;) )

  2. @Rich – hypocrite alert

  3. The best post I’ve read from Reg, yet IIMSS. Certainly if the 2014 budget (and its acolytes, the spending reviews) appeal to the UNITE members, (drawing together various polls) then we are possibly in the VI development that Reg predicts.

  4. “Question is-is there another step down beyond 3 at some point ?”

    ———-

    Even if there is, it may be dwarfed by what happens at the election…

    Eg, with Ukip getting exposure again at election time, will that eat into the Tory vote.

    Will there be another banking issue?

    How will Labour’s policies play when they actually release them…

  5. I think there is a tendency amongst righties to think lefties are stupid.

    There is tendency amongst lefties to think righties are nasty.

    Neither is true, although there are of course plenty of examples of both.

    I think righties sometimes feel they are getting the worst of it, because we tend to be treated with hatred rather than contempt. Personally however I’d rather be hated than belittled, so I shrug it off.

  6. Neil A

    We’re hated?

  7. Spearmint

    How about if we make it so that the loser isn’t aloud to contribute to UKPR for some amount of time? That would be torture if it was long enough.

  8. @All

    Remember I was the guy who pointed out that Cameron’s treaty veto didn’t override enhanced cooperation? When I was right, even tho’ the best legal advice the UK govt could afford was wrong? Well here is part 2 from the Big Book Of Martyn Just Is That F*****g Good.

    THE ROYAL NAVY OATH
    ===================
    I know the historical reasons for RN folk not swearing an oath (the RN was set up by the Crown directly, not via Parliament, the officers were deemed to be loyal so didn’t have to, and the empressed men were known to be possibly disloyal and hence could not be asked!)

    I also know Wiki and the Monarchy website agree RN folk don’t swear an oath.

    Problem is, it’s not true any more…

    With effect from 31 October 2009, following the Armed Forces Act 2006, the Manual of Naval Law was replaced by Manual of Service Law (MSL), aka JSP (Joint Service Publication) 830. Let’s look at Volume 1, Chapter 18, Page 4 of the MSL details, specifically section 8.

    Section 8 states that “8. Oath of allegiance. Whilst the signed declaration made at enlistment is a legal matter, the oath of allegiance has an educational, symbolic and solemn purpose. The swearing may be conducted during the first day of training or if considered more appropriate, at another suitable point, at the convenience of the single-Service. Swearing the oath of allegiance is a requirement of the Services for service in Her Majesty’s forces (this is a new provision for the RN because people offering to enter RN service have historically not sworn an oath of allegiance). Swearing the oath of allegiance is viewed as a mark of the individual’s loyalty to the Crown and therefore, their willingness faithfully to serve as a member of the armed forces.”

    I think for RN recruits the oath is sworn immediately before s/he signs the attestation form (MOD form 3049, aka S3049) at HMS Raleigh.

    rgdsm

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/52/contents
    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2009/1167/contents/made
    http://www.navy-net.co.uk/history/55448-swearing-oath-allegiance-break-tradition.html
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/43291/Ch18.pdf
    http://www.royal.gov.uk/monarchuk/armedforces/queenandthearmedforces.aspx
    http://www.navy-net.co.uk/history/55448-swearing-oath-allegiance-break-tradition.html
    http://www.fansonline.net/leicestercity/mb/view.php?id=526175
    http://www.navy-net.co.uk/joining-up-royal-navy-recruiting/52426-s3049-form.html
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/joint-services-publication-jsp-830-manual-of-service-law-msl

  9. Neil A
    Editors love you, you promote copy. I think most lefties think righties are stupid like a shark has a pea brain but survives very well, predates even.

    Righties do not think lefties are stupid, just hopelessly misguided, (lack of that pea brain I suppose).

    Question to lefties, how do you regard Murdoch, Ecclestone and Branson?

  10. Howard

    You may be a little skeptical of my political views, but if I am kind (and non-‘wingisan’) then I can actually see the Lib Dems increasing in VI towards the election as they are turned back into an anti-Tory vote rather than another way of voting Tory.

  11. NEILA

    @”I think there is a tendency amongst righties to think lefties are stupid.
    There is tendency amongst lefties to think righties are nasty.”

    I think it’s the other way round actually.

    CARFREW

    I certainly agree that the GE Campaign will introduce a new dynamic, with predictable close examination/criticism of policy & record-and unpredictable events & “gaffs”.

    And yes all of that may swamp the prior trends-but going in with a 3% gap is still better than a 13% gap.

    I wasn’t predicting how far the current trend will go-but the more new lows we see the more interesting it gets.

    Remember all those rules about the maximum Con VI & minimum Labour VI , blah, blah , blah which certain UKPR contributors have promulgated-they will start to get tested.

  12. @Anthony

    Mr Wells, can you please approve my big post of cleverness, so all the people can know just how clever I am and I can bask in their adulation of my Big Brain?

    Pretty please?

    rgdsm

  13. Howard

    “Neil A
    Editors love you, you promote copy. I think most lefties think righties are stupid like a shark has a pea brain but survives very well, predates even.
    Righties do not think lefties are stupid, just hopelessly misguided, (lack of that pea brain I suppose).”

    It depends. Staunch Tories probably look down on other parties as far as intelligence goes due to their leadership’s education. Eton, Oxford and Cambridge, while snobbish to the working class, are undisputably among the best education institutions on Earth.

  14. @ Reg,

    Aw, that’s no fun. And of no real benefit to the winner. Much better to make the loser publicly grovel somehow!

  15. Predictions for tomorrow’s Yougov?

    I’m going to go for Lab+11 – back to figures of a week and a half ago. Labour to break 40’s.

  16. Spearmint

    Your turn to make a suggestion.

  17. @ Colin

    “Remember all those rules about the maximum Con VI & minimum Labour VI , blah, blah , blah which certain UKPR contributors have promulgated-they will start to get tested.”

    Yes- I am certainly one who would find it hard to believe that every single person who voted Tory will vote for them again- nothing to do with judging their record particularly simply that when in government you are bound to annoy some people. Also I doubt anyone would argue that the economy has turned round in some sensational way to make non Tory voters from last time eternally grateful.

    Equally the second rule about Lib Dem defectors to Labour I find hard to believe is anything other than set in stone (query about how many of those there actually are).

    There’s no doubt since the start of the year the Tories have narrowed the gap and no doubt in my mind it still seems to be narrowing to the stage where it is going to test that theory which is basically Tory maximum 36% and Lab minimum 35%- I still think the theory will hold and be a bit astonished if it doesn’t but neck and neck I guess is possible!

  18. Does anyone else find it irritating that we now only get to know the result of the daily YouGov at 10.00pm if it’s favourable to the Conservatives. All seems very petty to me. I know it’s down to the Sun and not Anthony by the way.

  19. new thread

  20. @ Reg,

    Hm… Okay, how about this:

    Winner gets to pick any policy from their party’s 2010 manifesto. Loser has to make a case for why, in the national interest, their own party should adopt it.

    (I know that’s skirting around the edges of the comment policy, Anthony, but it would only be one post rather than a long debate, and it definitely wouldn’t be partisan!)

  21. @Martyn

    “Mr Wells, can you please approve my big post of cleverness, so all the people can know just how clever I am and I can bask in their adulation of my Big Brain?”

    LoL!

    Good name for a blog that – “Big Post of Cleverness” :)

  22. @Statgeek

    Thank you. Tho’ I think I’d better shut up now: I’m embarrassing even myself…:-)

    rgdsm

  23. @Richard – and how om earth have you arrived at that prediction – why would Labour break the 40% mark – they have done nothing at all to warrant that happening?

  24. Personally OLLYT whilst I dispise the Sun I am grateful that they fund the daily YG polls and can put up with some of their Journos being partisan – perhaps doing what they believe to be their masters bidding.

    Colin I guess when the lab-con lead falls to 5% on YG averages then we will see the odd level pegging just within moe
    In fact if 6-7% now we could see a 2% in the next week or 2 as well as a 10 or 11.

    At the moment I think level pegging would be an outlier not just moe and Statgeeks MAD which I think very useful would eliminate (in any event the recent 3 might end up being).

  25. @Sine Nomine

    My prediction is based on looking at David Cameron’s twitter feed, comments on news stories and google trends. It seems automatic opt in and right to buy are both being noticed and are both very unpopular. He seems to have finally woken the sleeping giant…lets see….

  26. knew Fred

  27. Is it just me, or is ‘every’ big Labour lead accepted almost without comment, but ‘any’ narrowing of their lead is caveated to death? Is this site affiliated to the BBC?

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