The weekly Monday poll from Populus is out and has topline figures of CON 32%(+1), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 9%(-1). Changes are from last Friday and obviously show no significant change – Populus are planning to release a weekly poll on Mondays, and sometimes more. Full tabs are here.

While I’m here I missed some Ipsos MORI polling on attitudes towards trade unions at the end of last week. This is something that quite often comes up in discussion – we know, for example, that a proportion of people think that Ed Miliband is too close to the Unions, but are the Unions themselves any longer seen as some great threat as they might plausibly have been seen in the 70s or 80s?

Essentially, the answer is no. And while people still don’t approve of how closely linked to the Unions Labour is, it’s not such a widespread view as it once was.

The general principle of Trade Unionism still had widespread support – 78% of people agree that Trade Unions are essential to protect workers’ interests. Fears that trade unions have too much power and are controlled by extremists have declined greatly since the 70s and 80s – back then around three-quarters of people agreed that Trade Unions had too much power and two-thirds thought they were controlled by militants and extremists. Those same two questions now find only 35% think the Unions have too much power and only 23% think they are controlled by militants and extremists.

That’s not to say people are supportive of Labour’s links with the Unions, people agree by 53% to 28% that Labour should not be so closely linked to the Unions and 55% disagree that is good for Unions to have a role in selecting Labour’s candidates.


129 Responses to “Populus – CON 32, LAB 39, LD 12, UKIP 9 (plus MORI on Trade Unions)”

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  1. Well this is interesting. What would be useful is a compare and contrast with some questions on attitudes towards the Conservative Party and business backers.

  2. Another poll showing no real movement to the Tories despite the positive headlines – this 30-32% looks increasingly stubborn to budge from. The Tories will start panicking that electorate have made their minds up and nothing will change it.

  3. @CHRIS – maybe so Chris but the real truth is that in this poll at least the Cons are the ONLY party to actually show an increase in their vote share.
    Yes I know its only 1% but they are the only ones to show an upward trend! -lol

  4. Con on the charge?

  5. @Chris

    “Another poll showing no real movement to the Tories despite the positive headlines – this 30-32% looks increasingly stubborn to budge from. The Tories will start panicking that electorate have made their minds up and nothing will change it.”

    Like you, I’d have expected some significant improvement in the Tory VI over the last month or so and the fact that we haven’t seen much more than a few sporadic upward twitches in a couple of polls, suggests to me that we might be witnessing something altogether more structural and ingrained. I’m not saying that the Tories will never be able to poll more than 36% ever again, but I’m still haunted by that September 2011 poll that YouGov ran on behalf of the IPPR which showed the Tories with a much smaller pool of potential voters than either Labour or the Lib Dems.

    Isn’t what we’re witnessing now in the opinion polls, with the Tories seemingly stuck in the 28-32% band come what may, a manifestation of what the IPPR/YouGov poll revealed? There is an ingrained anti-Tory vote and sentiment that runs through a surprisingly large strand of the British electorate and, while it’s often disparate and frayed, it provides the electoral mountain that the Tories have to scale.

  6. There is an ingrained anti-Tory vote and sentiment that runs through a surprisingly large strand of the British electorate
    ————————————————————————
    I think that may ring true for more than just the Tories.

    Has there been any polling done along the lines of:
    “I will never vote for ‘x’ party” 1 through 10
    “I will always vote for ‘y’ party” 1 through 10

    My sense is that attachment to parties has decreased, (second question), but opposition to various parties remains strong (first question)

    I wonder to what extent people vote FOR a particular party vs vote against another party.

    Pondering the news stories last week it seemed to me that no one had any new ideas in politics and that it had just become a way to say the opposition was worse than you.

    – Tories attacking Labour on Unions and NHS
    – Labour attacking Tories on Crosby
    – UKIP being attacked on a sex scandal

    I think the general sense of the public is “we agree, you lot are all awful!”

    Witness the mass surge to Lib Dems in 2010, then the mass surge to UKIP earlier this year. People seem to be waiting for a new positive force in politics. We haven’t seen it yet, but I think the electorate would embrace a new party fighting for the issues of the day:

    – economy
    – housing
    – inequality
    – unemployment

    IPSOS mori issues index due again shortly – see that for what today’s issues really are.

    And would happily abandon Labour and Tories to keep fighting their turf wars of the 1970’s and 1980’s around unions and privatisation that people of today don’t really care about, if they thought that new party was different, and if they thought they stood a chance of winning.

  7. Couldn’t find a very recent poll relating to the Conservatives links with big business but if you use “the rich” as shorthand for big business There was a Survey by ComRes that looked at this They found two out of three people regard the Tories as “the party of the rich”

  8. Regarding the ingrained anti Tory Majority.Many LD supporters will traditionally vote Labour as a way of Keeping the Tories out in constituencies where LD’s stand no chance and in the past Labour Supporters would switch to LD tactically for the same reason.I expect the former still remains the case not so sure about the latter

  9. CrossBat
    Why you as a Labour identifier, should be ‘haunted’ by a poll that shows the Tories in a hole is beyond me.
    It seems to be becoming very clear that the Cons only hope is to retrieve those UKIP voters,and that’ll only give ’em another shot at coalition at best.

  10. @RICHARD – I thought your thoughts were just about a fair and correct as they could be and much more accurate then the various partisan comments on here – and mainly I must say from the ‘red’ lot!
    Damn the lot of em scenario or ‘A Plague on all your houses’ also comes to mind
    Yes I think you are the closest with your comments.

  11. @Ewen

    I would have thought that the real hope of all political parties is to actually convert some of the non-voters to their cause. When you take out of (for example) UKIP the UKIP or bust voters and the Tory-UKIP converts (who are usually harder to shift back) then there are relatively few left to woo.

  12. THE SHEEP

    @”I would have thought that the real hope of all political parties is to actually convert some of the non-voters to their cause”

    If you express the last YouGov Poll VI including, rather than excluding WNV & DK , the numbers are interesting.

    For 2010 voters 21% of LD identifiers are DK-nearly as many as those saying they will now vote Lab ( 27%)-or those who will still vote LD ( 26%)

    If you deduct the 2010 voters from the total sample in that Poll and calculate WNV & DK ppn. for the non-2010 voters ( ? new voters) it is , respectively , 23% & 47% !!!

  13. @Ewen Lightfoot

    “Why you as a Labour identifier, should be ‘haunted’ by a poll that shows the Tories in a hole is beyond me.”

    “Haunted” was the wrong word, but I was worried I wouldn’t be able to spell “exhilarated”! lol

  14. @”If you deduct the 2010 voters from the total sample in that Poll and calculate WNV & DK ppn. for the non-2010 voters ( ? new voters) it is , respectively , 23% & 47% !!!”

    oops-that s/b 23% & 21% respectively .

  15. @Richard

    I think that Left Unity are trying to fill the hole you describe (or they think would).

    They are having an inaugural conference in November.

  16. Think the baby will be a boy and they will call him Derek. Just see the headlines in the DM in 2065, Coronation of King Derek. A very suitable name as it originates from Germany.

  17. I wouldn’t think the Tories are that bothered by the recent polls infact I think they will be encouraged, as has often been pointed out the +/- of polls could either be the gap is wider or narrower in any case it will be in single figures.

    Any Government in the mid cycle would be reasonably happy with most if not all polls showing only a few percentage points between them and the opposition.

    The question should be is a party in power showing it’s true potential of VI or just it’s core vote, and does the opposition record it’s true core vote or does that contain a higher number of floating voters who although they may say now they will support a party in opposition, are more likely to change there minds when the GE approaches.

    Personally I think the floating voter will decide the next election and support returning from Ukip or to the Liberals will only account for a very small percentage of the vote.

  18. I think it is just that opinion is polarised as it is on this forum not necessarily that a new partly that represents ‘what people really want’ is required, in any case UKIP have taken that ground.

    Most Lab voters will never vote Con but they might vote LibDem if they are sufficiently fed-up with Lab or LibDem\UKIP tactically.

    Most Con voters will never vote Lab but might vote UKIP if sufficiently fed-up with the Cons and UKIP\LibDem tactically.

    So appealing to dog-whistle is stopping the drift of Con to UKIP which has worked. What it isn’t doing is getting the foating voter over to their side.

  19. @Turk

    Totally agree, I would imagine most Tory MP’s left for the summer recess in high spirits, indeed there was plenty of evidence for that.

    @Colin

    As always your last post on the previous thread encapsulated my thoughts exactly. Thanks for that.

  20. Well one announcement today has David Cameron trending and it has nothing to do with a Royal baby

    https://twitter.com/search/realtime?q=%22David%20Cameron%22&src=tren

    I think this may be one of those few poll moving announcements at least for some cross breaks. (Is there anyone that does reliable cross breaks that can actually tell us something so that we can see?)

    If nothing else comments range from the humorous to the disturbing, but it has got people talking…

  21. @COOPER2802

    “So appealing to dog-whistle is stopping the drift of Con to UKIP which has worked. What it isn’t doing is getting the foating voter over to their side.”

    I expect that will happen as we get much nearer to the election and the choices become clearer.

  22. @RICHARD

    Folk will have to go back to buying ‘mucky mags’. I wonder if Crosby lobbies for ‘Mucky Mags Inc’

  23. Think the baby will be a boy and they will call him Derek. Just see the headlines in the DM in 2065

    -No they will still be running with Pictures of Diana Spencer and campaigning for Britain to leave the Interplanetary Commission of Human Rights

  24. Yet again Populus are in violation of Alec’s Law, with a Tory VI above 30%.

    It will be interesting to see if their results continue to shadow YouGov’s this closely if the polls start moving, but as things stand I have to say they’re a bit frustrating. It’s great that we now have another weekly tracking poll, but it’s a shame that it’s not from a pollster which is farther off YouGov. I can only assume their similar results come from similar methodology, which means Populus is unlikely to pick up on any trends that YouGov is missing.

  25. There has been recent reference on here to over-citing of Guardian headlines, with the implication of left wing partiusanship. I have just looked at their ‘front page’ on the web. It states ‘World awaits news of royal baby’

    I am tempted to write and ask ‘your sources for this statement are?’.

    I mean, The Guardian!!

  26. How encouraging that Populus are doing weekly polling. How encouraged (he won’t admit it of course) that the figures are so close to those of our host’s organisation!

  27. @TOH

    I can see that scenario, come 2014\15 the narrative can change to “look we have done all the hard work, there are good times ahead, stick with us don’t risk Labour ”

    Another function of the dog-whistle stuff is that they can do private polling on what works best as a line of attack and squirrel that away for 2015

  28. Re. the trade unions, I have wondered from time to time whether Cameron’s banging on about them at [redacted] is making him look a bit strange to the general public, who a) might prefer to hear about Government policy and b) probably don’t consider Unite membership to be a form of social leprosy as the Prime Minister appears to do. It does come off as something of a Tory obsession.

    (Of course, the answer to that is that the general public don’t watch [redacted] and couldn’t give a monkey’s.)

  29. @Couper2802

    Exactly! Although as I have said many times before it all depends on the economy, and it is clear that there are many years ahead of further reductions in public spending needed.

  30. @ Howard

    If a certain well known right-wing blogger is to be believed, the Guardian’s report of a leaked document from Lynton Crosby’s firm is in fact is in fact 4 pages selected from a longer public presentation given by the firm to MPs of all parties 3 years ago which includes the information that the public respect the NHS. But I trust the Guardian implicitly on the subject of the royal family…

  31. @Spearmint

    There is much in what you say about “……..and couldn’t give a monkey’s”. That is except for those most likely to vote ie the older voter who remembers the 60’s and 70’s when Governments had to have beer and sandwiches with the Union Barons. That group of voters almost certainly do care IMO.

  32. @HOWARD
    “There has been recent reference on here to over-citing of Guardian headlines, with the implication of left wing partiusanship. I have just looked at their ‘front page’ on the web. It states ‘World awaits news of royal baby’”

    ———

    Funnily enough, Colin cited the Times so often I started buying it. I’ve been citing it myself, reasoning that if Col didn’t get vaped maybe I wouldn’t. Felt a bit embarrassing at first, but buying the others felt a bit embarrassing anyway especially since the Graun lost the plot so what the hell…

  33. Carfrew

    I would read the Times if it wasn’t owned by the Murdoch’s, I absolutely refuse to give them any money, not even 10p

  34. @SPEARMINT
    “Re. the trade unions, I have wondered from time to time whether Cameron’s banging on about them at [redacted] is making him look a bit strange to the general public…”

    ————–

    Yeah, must admit it’s seemed a bit quaint whenever I’ve seen him do it during [redacted]. I’m half-expecting him to start bringing up the miners more often…

  35. Interesting on Mori re


    55% disagree that is good for Unions to have a role in selecting Labour’s candidates.

    Strictly speaking this is inaccurate as Union members who are members of the party get a vote in PCC selections but not ‘unions’

  36. @RiN

    I know, I know. I try not to think about that. And I’ve resorted to buying two papers at once to avoid being pigeonholed etc.

    On the plus side, I’m doing my bit to read a broader range of views in the service of the non-partisan comment policy thing, and it does mean I have an excuse to enjoy an additional coffee…

  37. TOH

    Thanks. I agree with your thoughts on “equality”.

    And one cannot even begin to contemplate what “equality” can mean in practice, in the absence of equality of the right to express your opinion.

  38. JimJam
    An example of a question loaded with ‘inaccuracy’ I suppose.

    I notice the LTV system of Populus throws up about 30% who would not vote or are doubted to do so. At 70% that gives a higher % than voted in 2010 (about 65%) so that seems about right. Perhaps LTV is not such a bad idea. Opinions?

  39. CARFREW

    Welcome to the small, loyal-and unprofitable cohort of Times purchasers.

    We are all eternally grateful that The Digger keeps shelling out to fund our little club.

  40. My rather unscientific survey of the David Cameron twitter feed reveals

    https://twitter.com/search/realtime?q=%22David%20Cameron%22&src=tren

    “Tory vote collapses completely in under 25yr old male demographic.” Tories firmly back in the mid 20’s.

    “Tories vote increases by 0.0002% in other categories.

    Power of social media. Lets see if the polls support that theory….

  41. RICHARD

    What a thoroughly unpleasant bunch they are on that twitter site.

    Still-why should they worry about young children?

  42. I don’t think Default-On will be particularly effective in preventing the harmful effects of pornography, but I’m happy to wait for the detail before making that assumption.

    I am a little perplexed by the extreme reaction of some people to the suggestion though. You still want to watch seedy men double penetrating teenagers? Just select “Off”.

    Perhaps the settings should be “Default-On” and “Jack-Off”.

  43. Richard

    Re that link to that twitter sight did you mean to say Tory vote collapses completely in under 25 IQ male demographic.

  44. @Turk
    ‘Any Government in the mid cycle would be reasonably happy with most if not all polls showing only a few percentage points between them and the opposition.’

    We are now 64 – 65% through this Parliament – I think it is stretching things a bit to call it ‘mid cycle’!

  45. TURK

    Chuckle !

  46. @ Richard,

    Lol! Maybe he’s finally discovered the key to turning out the youth vote.

  47. @COLIN

    “Welcome to the small, loyal-and unprofitable cohort of Times purchasers.”

    ———–

    Thank you Colin. It isn’t as bad as I thought it might be actually…

  48. Mind you, once you’ve seen Glover writing for the Graun, it’s not hard to have expectations exceeded…

  49. CARFREW

    I love it-a pretty good spread of opinion-Aaronovitch to Montgomerie . A good Business Section.
    And the Leader does not always make comfortable reading for Cameron.

    I just wish it’s existence didn’t rely on Murdoch’s goodwill.

    Still so many newspapers have seen their circulation plunge -you wonder how many will survive.

  50. @Colin

    I’ve been a bit surprised by some of the editorials and other comment, I must admit. In a way, they have an advantage over papers like the Graun in that when critical, say on housing (or the lack of it), it isn’t as juiced up with other concerns. So it’s more likely to be palatable to their readership…

    And I nearly spilled my coffee when Montgomerie listed all those high tech things like graphene and Thorium and 3D printing and so on the government should be investing in.

    I used to routinely get the Sunday Times in the 90s, but then I was a bit of a soft touch for Sunday supplements…

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