This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. The five point lead follows two six point leads on Wednesday and Thursday, so we’re certainly looking at the lower end of YouGov’s recent spread of results. Full tabs are here.

There is also a new Populus poll following on from their return to regular voting intention polls at the start of the week – going forward they are expecting to publish at least one poll a week, sometimes more. Their latest figures are CON 31%(nc), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 12%(-1), UKIP 10%(nc). Changes are from the start of the week and obviously don’t show any movement beyond normal margin of error. Full tabs are here


235 Responses to “New YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. MRNAMELESS

    “As a student in Sheffield Hallam, I will be vociferously campaigning to unseat Nick Clegg!”
    __________

    Hmm one result I will have my eagle eye on.

    Good luck.

  2. @ChrisLane 1945

    “This means, presumably, that if the Cons were to pick up another 3.5% of Labour VI then we would see a dead heat in voting numbers.”

    You’re really getting the hang of this polling malarkey now, aren’t you? Mind you, if my Auntie had a pair of whotsits she’d be my Uncle too! lol

  3. @ MrNameless

    “The idea of a graduate tax replacing tuition fees is a great pitch to the student vote from Labour”

    Which would work by:

    1) Graduates paying for their education rather than taxpayers in general – as they do now;
    2) Those graduates who earn more paying more – as they do now.

    I’m not sure how much more popular the graduate tax under those circumstances would really be, even if it was Labour policy (which it isn’t, I don’t think).

    Incidentally, if you increase the Labour vote in Sheffield Hallam from the current 16% and manage to depose Nick Clegg, all you’ll get is a Conservative MP, presumably in favour of unlimited fees.

    Is that what you want?

  4. @couper2802

    I know of at least one Conservative MP (Tony Baldry) who’s replies on all constituent correspondence on the NHS contained a copy pasted statement on how it was all Labour’s fault, and that evidence given to the Francis inquiry showed grave failings by the former government, and so on.

    Of course this has back fired, because people don’t want campaign rhetoric in reply to constituent complaints. And particularly when people compared replies and realised it was a form letter. It was then compounded when Baldry replied to a letter writing campaign by accusing the campaign organisers of being a Labour funded front.

    Whether this was on his own initiative, or based on CCHQ direction, is unknown.

  5. Top of the Morning to you CROSSBAT 11

    Real Madrid play AFC Bournemouth tonight as well.

  6. @ Allan Christie

    Do you expect huge investments here from the three named countries (because this was the point about Japan). I don’t know much investment from Brazil, there is some from India (Mitral, Land rover, although money is taken out from both) and China is investing in UK SMEs, although they aren’t very good judging from anecdotal evidence.

    As to exports, UK firms manufacturing and selling in China have registered a net loss for five years. Exporting to China is profitable, but tiny, outsourcing to China, we know now, was an error in most cases.

    But China will have a recession (no capitalist economy can exist without it as excess assets have to be written off) – I’m not longing for it, as the political implications are frightening.

    India and Brazil both are in trouble economically.

    All the three countries (though less so China) dependendent on the Western economies and actually we aren’t really dependent on them.

  7. Robert,

    “Following his appointment, Umunna re-affirmed Labour’s commitment to introducing a graduate tax in place of university tuition fees if it wins the election due in May 2015.” – From Chuka Umunna’s Wikipedia page.

    I agree it would work basically the same, but it removes the stigma of emerging from university with huge debts.

    I don’t want a Conservative MP, but nor do I want Nick Clegg to remain in office. What I’m actually expecting is for Nick Clegg to hold the seat with a much reduced majority and to move Labour into second place.

  8. @ Robert C

    The Ashcroft poll in Sheffield Hallam in 2010/2011 showed it had become a 3 way marginal. If I recall Lab 2 points behind Lib Dems and Tories a close 3rd. So far from certain that it either stays Lib Dem or goes Tory. All eyes will be on that one for sure!

    In terms of ‘is that what you want’, without getting too partisan I would guess the answer for left leaning people would be yes. One seat but a massive one for changing the dynamics of a post 2015 government- almost like a by-election in the sense that Nick Clegg being re-elected is very unlikely to make the difference between a Tory majority or another coalition but might make a massive difference to the direction of a Lib Dem party were they still to be in coalition.

    Re student vote- presumably most students move away, so those who voted for Clegg in 2010 and are still there will be a very small figure and will it be a case of folklore being passed down the student generations?

  9. @robert c mrnameless

    If Nick Clegg loses his seat then the LibDem vote has collapsed and there will be a big labour majority so an extra Tory won’t matter. Personally I would like him so lose his seat mwhahehehehe

  10. SHEVII.
    I hope left leaning people will not be vindictive towards Nick, and also, of course to Simon Hughes.

  11. MR NAMELESS

    @”it removes the stigma of emerging from university with huge debts.”

    Just for the record, that debt only falls to be repaid if your post-grad pay is above a certain figure, and any unpaid balance is written off after a term of years.

    But anyway……if tuition fees are reduced, and student debt is abolished :-

    a) how will students who cannot afford their fees up-front ever get into university?
    b) how will universities fund their courses?

  12. Specifically, £21,000 and 30 years. That’s not a great sum to live on with a degree!

  13. I really don’t see that, when students are faced with having to pay a tax versus having to pay the same amount for a loan, they are going to see any difference.

    It’s probably virtually only Labour party members who think there is some great difference.

    Nick Clegg has been a scapegoat of the left for some time because of this one issue, but I’m sure people will grow out of it when they look at what the real alternatives actually are.

  14. I think I’m going senile, I keep waking up in the middle of the night to check if the royal baby has arrived!! Surely I can’t be that desperate to make the first sarcastic comment on the royal sprog, could I?

  15. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    @” think the Japanese are becoming less relevant in the UK economy each year. Our future will be with country’s such as China, India and Brazil .”

    THe significance of Japan to the UK economy is in it’s inward investment -and the jobs that provides.

    THe Japanese response to the Government’s Review of EU Competencies was one of a handful from countries who did respond to an invitation to contribute to the consultation.

    It pointed out that more than 1300 Japanese companies employ 150,000 people in UK & warns that if UK ceases to play ” a major role” in the EU, investing in UK & exporting to Europe from outside a tariff barrier would be “not good news” .

    Despite the howls from extreme europhobes, this will be more useful to DC than to Farage.

  16. “But anyway……if tuition fees are reduced, and student debt is abolished :-
    a) how will students who cannot afford their fees up-front ever get into university?
    b) how will universities fund their courses?”

    ———–

    Retrospective graduate tax on boomers!!!

    We should pass a law whereby stuff boomers wish on others is applied to themselves.

    If that makes one choke on one’s sugar-free Alpen, at least the Test match resumes shortly. Hope Root has a chance to get his double-ton…

  17. I think the Japanese are becoming less relevant in the UK economy each year. Our future will be with country’s such as China, India and Brazil .
    Of course we should listen to what others say but at the end of the day it will be the public who will determine our future with the EU and not Japan.

    -Alan Sorry to Disappoint you but UK does more trade with the Tiny economy of the Republic of Ireland than India ,Brazil and China Combined.
    Exports to Japan are worth £9.6 Billion a Year virtually the same as those with China and and 3 times the level with Brazil.

    The Country with the Second Largest direct inward investment into the UK from outside of the EU is Japan.The US is first.

    What Japan thinks counts.

  18. @Robert C
    ‘Nor has there been much chance to articulate what the Lib Dems want as opposed to what they’ve had to accept under the Coalition agreement.’

    There is an inherent fallacy in that statement.The LibDems did not have to accept anything but could have remained in on the Opposition benches. Nor do I accept the argument that failure to enter Coalition would have led to another early election – Had Cameron attempted to do that in late 2010/early 2011 Clegg and Milliband could reasonably have teamed up to form an alternative Government from the existing House of Commons.Moreover, agreeing to enter Coalition did not require them to do so for five years! The LibDems would today have more credibilty had they followed David Steel’s example in relation to the Lib/Lab pact by limiting the period of Coalition to 18 months perhaps then followed by a further election. As it is, anti- Coalition critics can rebut any suggestion that they have restricted right-wing Tory extremism by saying ‘You could have vetoed all of it and forced another election ,if necessary.However, you chose not to do so and have tolerated so much from the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory party’

  19. ROBERT C

    You’re correct -there is no difference.

    THe question for Labour will be -if max fees are reduced & loans scrapped-how do poorer students get into University-and where do Universities go to for the missing funds?

    ……….presumably the tax payer is the answer to the latter question.

  20. @ Colin

    University funding – A corporation tax levy on UK businesses that directly goes towards University funding. There is no reason this could not be done. Or offer more incentives for business to invest directly in Universities.

    The current student loan system requires repayments when an annual salary of £21k or above is achieved and there is a 30 year repayment period. But obviously the debt repayment is taken into account when people apply for mortgages etc in terms of affordability. At the moment you have to pay 9% of your salary when you earn £21k or more. This is a fairly large amount when you look at affordability of making mortgage repayments. If you are earning less than £30k, unless you have a partner earning a decent amount, then buying a house in many areas of the country would be difficult.

    As for a graduate tax instead of the loan, it would depend on the level of tax. It might be a worse option.

  21. LASZLO

    The 3 countries I mentioned are BRIC countries who’s economies are growing. Sure they have problems and I’m not for one second rubbishing the importance of Japan but their own economy has stagnated for the past decade, the country is growing older ..ie demographic time bomb…

    In the next decade China will have the largest economy in the world, next 20 years India will have the second largest economy in the world and already using (PPP) Brazils economy is larger than that of the UK.

    How many trade missions has the UK sent to India and China recently compared to Japan?
    ….

    “All the three countries (though less so China) dependendent on the Western economies and actually we aren’t really dependent on them”
    _____

    Maybe not at the moment but just a little reminder….The EU wants more Chinese investments and the US economy (which we are dependent on) is dependent on China.

    China is the one to watch not Japan.

  22. R HUCKLE

    NIce one-nice & simple.

  23. @ Chrislane

    A puzzling comment that can only be taken as wishing Lib Dems to be re-elected! In both cases (and in Simon Hughes case an absolute certainty) there is a chance they would be replaced by left leaning MP’s so I’m not sure it needs to be vindictive or cutting off your nose to spite your face if that it what you meant.

    Actually I think Clegg will survive as the maths are in his favour and I have an unproved theory that constituents quite like the idea of having the ear of someone high up in government- much better your are making your views known to someone who has a big say in government than a back bencher with little clout.

    His big problem of course is that some voters from both Tory and Labour will have a strong dislike for him so he is getting squeezed from both directions. I would guess though that the strongly anti Clegg among the Tory voters are likely to have already voted Tory in 2010. But he might need to pick up a few of them against a Lab onslaught and there probably won’t be many who will thank him for the “sacrifice” of putting the Tories into government, in fact more likely to be moaning about him not letting the Tories do what they wanted to.

  24. COLIN

    I’m in no doubt Japan does invest heavily in the UK and I can see why they could be concerned about the UK leaving the EU. I just think the UK should be looking towards emerging economies in the future to invest in and have them invest in the UK.

    “Despite the howls from extreme europhobes, this will be more useful to DC than to Farag”
    __

    :-)

  25. R Huckle

    “But obviously the debt repayment is taken into account when people apply for mortgages etc in terms of affordability.”

    Whereas a tax wouldn’t? If it’s about affordability, it’s all part of the same calculation. It’s about take home pay after tax.

    @ Graham

    “The LibDems did not have to accept anything but could have remained in on the Opposition benches”

    Only if they wanted the Tories to force another election immediately. Being the only party with any money (Labour and the Lib Dems were bankrupt in May 2010), the Tories would have won outright, as the polls afterwards showed (post election they averaged around 42-43%).

    Could we please put that “they could have stayed in opposition” argument to bed, once and for all?

  26. STEVE

    Yes you’re correct regarding our trade with Ireland compared to China India and Brazil but I’m looking at the future.

    4.2 million in Ireland compared to half the worlds population in the 3 counties mentioned,

    Yes what Japan says does matter but so does what the UK population says.

  27. @CL1945
    ” Real Madrid play AFC Bournemouth tonight as well.”

    You’ll be honoured to hear this is headline news on the online edition of Spain’s no’1 sports daily, the Real Madrid cheerleading “Marca”, and that the game,is, live on Spanish national sports channel, Gol TV.

  28. @ Graham

    All the rest of the alternatives you put forward are either utterly impractical or would have been disastrous in the light of the UK’s financial plight and need to make cuts.

    The Lib Dems jumping into bed with Labour so soon after they had just been removed from power with 29% of the vote would have been utter suicide.

  29. @Robert C

    I reject the idea that Cameron could have called an early election in the absence of a Coalition.He could only have done that had an alternative Government not been available from the existing House of Commons. Given the numbers, Clegg, Milliband and various others would have been able to put together a majority.

  30. The 3 countries I mentioned are BRIC countries who’s economies are growing. Sure they have problems and I’m not for one second rubbishing the importance of Japan but their own economy has stagnated for the past decade, the country is growing older ..ie demographic time bomb…

    -Not as quickly as China with the 1 child law.

  31. @Alec

    ” @RAF – re your 3.05am post;
    I know it was the early hours, when minds drift and the focus on detail lapse, but nonetheless, it isn’t acceptable.
    I’m stepping in here quite firmly and giving you a yellow card for violation of Rule 17 of Section 3 of the UKPR rule book – ‘inappropriate use of the apostrophe’.”

    The apostrophe was used correctly. The disaster lay in the preponderance of inappropriate commas, for which I rightly blame my phone!

  32. On Graduate Tax

    Don’t agree with it – why tax learning?

    Make free (or for a nominal fee) tertiary level education a right for all at some point in their life. Those that don’t want to use it, then it is up to them.

    I don’t drive or have children and rarely visit the doctor but willingly pay my taxes to support the state doing things.

    All spending is about priorities and it seems most of our neighbours prize education higher than we do.

    Perhaps spend less on defence where we spend twice the level of Germany (trade nuclear weapons for free tertiary education for all).

    Lots of different ways to pay for things – just need the will to want to do it

  33. ‘The Lib Dems jumping into bed with Labour so soon after they had just been removed from power with 29% of the vote would have been utter suicide.’

    Not in the particular circumstances where Cameron could reasonably be accused of bringing about political instability by calling a further election so soon after the previous one. Labour and the LibDems could argue that they were getting together ‘in the national interest’. As it happens, I strongly suspect that the mere threat of such an outcome would effectively have deterred Cameron from trying to seek a further Dissolution.

  34. STEVE

    “-Not as quickly as China with the 1 child law”
    _____

    But they are still registering net population growth.

  35. According to the Office for National Statistics the UK exports £13.78 billion to China each year and £8 billion to Hong Kong including services etc.

    I think our future lies with pot noodles and not Sushi.

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