We haven’t had a Populus poll so far this year since their contract with the Times ended. Today they re-enter the field, but using an online methodology. Topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 10%.

Obviously there are no changes since their previous poll given the shift in method – which Populus themselves explain here. It’s worth reading in full if you’re interested in polling methods, but to give a quick summary of the changes, parallel testing by Populus found that they couldn’t produce comparable online results using past vote weighting, so they have moved from past vote weighting to party ID weighting (the approach currently used by YouGov). Populus have also dropped their reallocation of don’t knows, the old spiral of silence adjustment, on the basis that interviewer effect shouldn’t be a factor in online polls.

Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: We also have the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian due tonight (and MORI’s monthly poll for the Evening Standard is also due sometime soon, possibly tomorrow). I’m out and about tonight and will update with details of ICM when I get home.


32 Responses to “Populus – CON 31, LAB 38, LD 13, UKIP 10”

  1. Absolutely average poll!

  2. 51% for the centre left vs 41% for the centre right!

    Probably a completely erroneous observation, but I quite simply couldn’t think of anything else remotely interesting to say about this Populus poll. The Groundhog days roll on!

    Anthony – I suggest you start a thread on yesterday’s Ashes Test Match!!

  3. @ Carfrew (from previous)

    Yes – it is tortoises all the way down. This is what you get with positivist methodologies. Neo-Kantian boredom or just the weather.

  4. That’s a very high lib dem score

  5. @ Anthony

    So basically it’s another You Gov, except Populus won’t have had the timely recording of people’s 2010 vote & will be relying on the panel’s memories for that. Or are there other method differences to YG?

  6. LASZLO
    @ Carfrew (from previous)
    “Yes – it is tortoises all the way down. This is what you get with positivist methodologies. Neo-Kantian boredom or just the weather.”

    ————–

    Well Hume’s solution was to never look beyond the present, then you don’t have to deal with the whole house of cards. But maybe he just didn’t like turtles…

  7. @Crossbat11-

    With the current Lib Dem leadership’s economic views, surely 38% for the centre left vs 44% for the centre right and 10% for the populist right?

  8. Apropos de rien can any adults contributing to this site use the adult term “moderated” rather than [I can’t bring myself to write it in full as I AM a grown-up] the “N” step?

    ta mucho molto.

  9. Thats more like nearer the ‘truth’ Alex – well spotted -lol

    Hello Paul :) = lol = !

  10. AW

    Can you tell me if Populus prompt for UKIP?

  11. @ALEX HARVEY

    “With the current Lib Dem leadership’s economic views, surely 38% for the centre left vs 44% for the centre right and 10% for the populist right?”

    ———-

    There is also the problem of a disconnect between a party’s policies and what their voters actually want.

    Eg Farage is quite keen on more cuts and less “State”, but polling shows a good number of UKippers aren’t so enamored with cuts and are quite keen on public ownership etc…

  12. @Mrnameless – “Absolutely average poll!”

    Beg to differ. Taking all the polling companies together, he Tory 31% seems to be above average.

  13. SN

    “Hello Paul :) = lol = !”

    Bonjour yung Miss.

  14. I know it’s a crossbreak and it’s a sample of 98 but the Scottish data is well off the recent YG data.

    (rounded for simplicity)

    YG:

    Con 19%
    Lab 41%
    Lib 7%
    SNP 25%
    UKIP 4%
    Green 2%
    Others 1%

    Populous:

    Con 16%
    Lab 40%
    Lib 4%
    SNP 34%
    UKIP 3%
    Green 3%
    Others 0%

    The SNP data is way off. I suppose that’s the problem with small samples. There’s the potential for 8-9% points of MoE.

  15. Arse. ICM and Populus were my touchstone polls, with YouGov indicating the direction of travel and ICM/Populus indicating the absolute position. But if Populus have changed their methodology (and don’t do a spiral of silence adjustment) I feel less confident about placing so much faith in them. Pooh.

    rgdsm

  16. @roger – no, they don’t, not until people have already selected ‘other’.

  17. RogerRebel: According to the chatter at PoliticalBetting, Populous don’t prompt for UKIP.

  18. Quincel – the link to the explanation from Populus in the originial post deals with their decision on prompting.

    We also have ICM to come later on tonight. I’m out and about, so may not be around when it is published, but as ever feel free to discuss.

  19. ICM have

    Conservative 36% (+7)
    Labour 36% (n/c)
    Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
    Ukip 7% (-5).

    so no change in Lab polling but highly suggestive of an increase for Cons at the expense of UKIP.

  20. (bugger, pressed post too soon.)

    Surely this ICM poll is an outlier since it is way different to all the other polls.

  21. Didn’t the last ICM poll also have a big drop in Ukip support?

  22. Yes it did, it had a 6 point drop in Ukip support, I think something very strange is going on at ICM

  23. Let’s see how well AW’s non partisan posts go down tonight after that ICM poll!

    Have to say this looks like an outlier by some way- even acknowledging they show lower Lab leads the 37% for Tory just looks so out of kilter with other polling organisations as to be plain wrong. I was half expecting an ICM Lab lead of 3 or 4 but not this.

  24. So seeing as this is a massive outlier, I’ll assume it’s an issue of methodology or error until replicated elsewhere. AW, anything that might cause this?

  25. ICM is presumably an outlier (we had plenty of other polls yesterday which showed totally different things), but we may as well wait for more data and see. If it is an outlier, we can look forward to articles and comments in a month’s time when UKIP suddenly ‘surge’ again in ICM.

  26. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    Didn’t the last ICM poll also have a big drop in Ukip support?

    According to Mike Smithson:

    The fall of UKIP in tonight’s ICM poll is quite sensational.
    In May it was 18%, June 12% and in this poll 7%
    CON the beneficiary

  27. The Ukip scores for ICM this year are …

    20/1. 6
    10/2. 9
    10/3. 7
    14/4. 9
    12/5 18
    9/6. 12

    And now a 7, sorry but although it’s the same basic patten as other pollsters it’s extremely exaggerated, this looks so wrong as to be unbelivable

  28. ICM have put their tables up very promptly this month (even if the report is labelled as June on the front page):

    http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2013/07/2013_guardian_july.pdf

    Percentages pre-turnout adjustment:

    Con 33%, Lab 37%, LD 12%, UKIP 8%

    Only 58% of the sample gave any sort of party preference. After turnout the effective sample size was only 459

    POst-turnout pre-adjustment:

    Con 35%, Lab 37%, LD12%, UKIP 7%

    Post spiral of silence:

    Con 36%, Lab 36%, LD 13%, UKIP 7%.

    Even allowing for ICM’s idiosyncrasies that UKIP figure looks very low to me

  29. Chordata

    If you look at earlier ICMs this con score is quite sensational, it much higher than when Ukip was scoring regular single figures with ICM, if (enormous if) this poll is to be believed that con are taking vote from everywhere and ate on course for an overall majority in 2015

  30. Un otro nuevo threddo immediaments

    Grazi.

  31. SHEVII
    “Let’s see how well AW’s non partisan posts go down tonight after that ICM poll!”

    ———-

    Mucho parmesan posto naughto stepo…

  32. Dead thread!!!