This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%. The five point lead is right at the bottom of YouGov’s current range – we had a couple at the beginning of July, but other than that it’s the lowest this year. That said, it’s within the normal margin of error for a lead of seven points or so, so don’t read too much into it. Full tabs are here.
YouGov also asked some questions in response to Ed Miliband’s announcement on the Unions. They are pretty cutting about the situation now, but much more positive about his proposals.
The announcement hasn’t yet made people see Miliband as being any stronger – he’s still seen as weak by 47% of people, strong by just 10%, the same figures as YouGov showed at the weekend. Neither has he distanced himself from the Unions yet – 36% think he is too close to Unions, up from 29% at the weekend. Asked who they think is currently more powerful within the Labour party, 36% say the leaders of the large trade unions, 33% say Miliband and the party leadership.
More positive for Miliband was people’s reaction to his proposals on trade unions and donation caps. 50% said they reflected a weakening of Labour’s link with the Unions, and most thought this was a good thing. 22% thought it wasn’t a weakening of the link… but most of them thought it was a good thing too, so initially at least it looks like he’s managed to keep both sides happy! Overall 52% think his proposals are a good thing, 20% a bad thing, 28% don’t know.
So a thumbs up for the specifics, but no positive movement yet general perceptions of Miliband. Remember it’s perfectly possible for people to like the specifics and it to have no effect simply because most people won’t have paid the slightest attention to them…they gave an opinion in the poll because YouGov told them what Miliband had proposed, and then asked people what they thought. In reality most people will be blissfully unaware of them. What probably matters more in the longer run is whether people pick up a broader perception of Ed Miliband being a stronger and more effective leader, stamping some authority on his party, or a perception of Labour having some internal row or other, and Ed Miliband being pushed around by the Unions.