YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun this morning has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. For the record the 34% for the Conservatives is the highest since early February.

Out yesterday there were also some more results from YouGov’s poll of Conservative party members for Tim Bale and Paul Webb – the new results are here and I’ve written about them in more detail over on Huffington Post here.

Also worth reading this morning is Peter Kellner’s take on Miliband’s latest polling figures and Labour’s relationship with the Unions here.


202 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 10”

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  1. @TOH,

    Great post. Similar view to me, and the markets have been great lately. Liking Mr Carney already.

    Rich

  2. I think Ed did well today,he has spiked the Tory guns regarding Red Ed etc and most deliciously put Hodges in the most awful bind,how can he slate the
    Speech and its intentions when his hero fully approves of them ?

  3. BCROMBIE

    Thanks.

    I don’t think I understand enough of the facts to answer you :-

    Is what remains of the political levy after the affiliation fees have been paid over to the LP, distributable by the TU’s leadership at their behest-without approval from the members ?

    Are there any TUs who accumulate the political levy on the basis of “pay unless you opt out” ?

  4. Sine Nomine

    “@CROSSBAT
    Yes thats correct 40 Conservative MPs and 34 Labour MPs – nice sized house of commons eh? -lol”

    The size of the house hasn’t changed, it’s just that the other 559 seats are filled with BNP, Green and Respect (with BNP as the majority but without Nick Griffin as the leader and some severe reforms within the party).

  5. ALEC

    Ah yes-back then-in 2010-he really should have announced a massive state investment program in all sorts of shiny new stuff, thrown money at a “Job Creation ” Scheme , and announced that UK Public Spending would stay at it’s then level.

    -that he had every confidence that this would fire up the economy, and reduce the deficit and borrowing ………after increasing them for a short while………..which no one should worry about……one little bit.

    Can’t think how he came to miss that one !

  6. @colin,

    lol.

  7. Rich

    The EU has nothing to do with decisions made by the EHCR. They are separate entities & the EU concedes to the ECHR.

    The UK govt could always change the law so that sentencing for those that would have been eligible for full-life tariffs could be a number of years, such as 60 yrs.

  8. TOH


    Feeling really good at the moment, so cheers.”

    Pleased to hear that Howard and long may it continue.

  9. Richard.

    @”I really don’t understand why some folk complain about the many and varied subjects that are discussed here,”

    There are usually two reasons aren’t there?

    * It’s boring & I’m not interested.
    or
    *it’s bad / embarrasing/ revealing/ worrying / news for my side-I don’t want to read it.

    Agree with your post-though I don’t see the relevance of the phrase “manual worker” in this context.

  10. Colin

    I am sure the leadership probably do decide what to do with the money – that is what leaders do isn’t it?

    Do the companies always ballot their shareholders before all their decisions (including political), or NGOs?

    Rich,

    Why are you confusing the EU and ECHR – you do know they are different don’t you and withdrawing would make us an international laughing stock (if not pariah – in the West at least)

    As in most of these cases, such as prisoner votes etc there is a simple solution (a large, finite number of years tariff, the right to be considered for release – emphasis on considered) but that does not fit with the ‘tougher than you’ approach of the political parties

  11. @Amber et al,

    I know they are different! I am making the point that the majority of the electorate will just see it as an EU body and add weight to the exit/referendum calls.

    and I still think you, bcrombie etc are on the wrong side of the argument compared to the electorate. We have a small amount of serial killers, child killers etc, that should be locked up for life. I don’t agree that the ECHR should have the final say, or agree with the liberal left that everybody, Sutcliffe/West can be rehabilitated.

    rich

  12. Rich

    You obviously don’t understand the ruling of the ECHR and that pulling out is a very serious act.

    The other issue here is the one you give in your first paragraph. If the British people believe that then they are wrong – no grey zones there – just wrong and if they think that then clearly they do not understand the ECHR, how it was set up and what it stands for.

    Any decision they then make on its judgements will be flawed

    I am currently looking at the a thread on LDV which is focused on the misunderstandings of the Great British Public – I am saddened by the ignorance to be honest as the information is readily available, but it is interesting all the ‘misunderstandings’ are favouring the direction supported by the Coalition and their flag bearers in the right-wing press.

    Surely we should be ensuring people are making decisions on the correct information, not being content for them to be misled?

  13. @bcrombie,

    Nope. I am very clear on the ruling, and have watched several overviews on news channels today. Pulling out is huge, I understand that. I’ll be interested to see if the Conservatives campaign on that for 2015, I still doubt it given Churchill championed it, but I repeat that I guarantee the vast majority of the electorate would disagree with this ruling today.

    If they did, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Labour copy the policy if it looked popular…

  14. @Rich

    The ruling does not state that an individual has to be released, merely that their period of detention has to be periodically reviewed. Sutcliffe/West/Brady will never be released.

    Also, the government could simply ignore the ruling if it so wanted. It’s been years since the ECHR decided that it was contrary to the Convention to deny all prisoners the right to vote, but, the UK still hasn’t changed the law to accomodate this

  15. Rich

    I do not think any Labour Government would be as hostile as the current administration is, frustrated yes but not to the extent of advocating pulling out as suggested by May.

    Who know though

    The electorate is a fickle beast……and, as I suggest, they make certain opinions based on being misled, or misunderstanding

  16. @Raf,

    I don’t agree with giving prisoners the vote either. I like the fact it’s part of the punishment for damaging society. I might be talked round on minor crimes with short sentences, but serious ones no way.

  17. @ et al,

    Just to bring it back to polling on the life question. As I suspected, rates of up to 90% support for whole life tariffs with no review supported by YouGov poll for certain crimes. High by any polling standard.

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/09/life-should-mean-life/

  18. @Rich
    “EU of course. Although personally I think we need to stay in on a trading bloc basis alone, but this ruling I can’t support.”

    This is the second time I have had to point out to you that the European Court of Human Rights has nothing to do with the EU. That’s why I asked what referendum, so there’s no “of course” about it..

  19. @Rich

    @Raf,

    I don’t agree with giving prisoners the vote either. I like the fact it’s part of the punishment for damaging society. I might be talked round on minor crimes with short sentences, but serious ones no way.

    Voting is not as much a privilege as you suggest (look at decreasing turnouts).

    Perhaps making prisoners read the vacuous guff that passes as political campaign material, and making them choose could be a punishment…..

  20. Rich

    It is a court decision against a convention we signed. We can moan about it but at the end it was Churchill’s Government that signed the convention.

    We cannot pick and choose and often, as in the case of votes from prisoners, it is a poorly developed law that is the problem.

    If we want to ignore the rulings or pick and choose then propose pulling out and live with the consequences.

    We should be used to this as we follow Common Law and the courts define the scope of the laws as passed by Parliament

  21. @norbold,

    Your not listening are you. I was making the point I think the electorate will get confused and tie the ECHR to the EU. In fact I would go as far to say I guarantee this will happen.

    And I see you conveniently ignore YouGovs poll that shows overwhelming rejection of today’s ruling.

    I give in today! Guess for tonights poll then bed. Cons 33, Lab 38.

    Rich

  22. You’re. darn.

  23. Wasn’t the ECHR Churchill’s idea

  24. @bcrombie,

    Some good points in you’re last note.

    Must go to bed as was hoping ECHR would be covered on Newsnight, but it’s a Syria special.

  25. @BCrombie

    I found the survey you are referring to fascinating. However I don’t think that most are misunderstandings in any real sense – mostly where people were completely wrong over the facts on issues like immigration numbers, crime rates, EU regulations, teenage pregnancies and so on people were basically coming out with the sort of “facts” that the Mail, Express, Sun etc print day-in day-out.

    It is no coincidence that people were invariably wrong in a direction that favoured a right wing world-view, eg crime being worse that it actually is.

    I also seem to remember the Leveson enquiry being very critical of the detrimental effect of sections of the press constantly misrepresenting EU laws and regulations.

  26. Rich

    I know you are no longer there but on your reply to Norbold I am amazed that you find it acceptable that the ECHR is used as an anti-EU vehicle when it is nothing to do with it.

    Surely we should be informing people rather than taking advantage of their ignorance? I refer you back to my earlier post where it seems that the ignorance leads to conclusions favouring only one side…….wonder why that is?

  27. OllyT

    I was using ‘misunderstanding’ as I was being kind. I would hazard wilfully misled as being another way of putting it. I think there is another phrase but very unparliamentary

  28. @Colin – “Ah yes-back then-in 2010-he really should have announced a massive state investment program in all sorts of shiny new stuff….”

    I’m afraid you’ve totally and utterly missed the point of everything I’ve just said. Not even worth penning a response to I’m afraid.

    You’re in danger of sinking to the levels of some of our younger posters.

  29. RICHARD IN NORWAY
    “Wasn’t the ECHR Churchill’s idea”

    Wiki says this:

    (Year was 1949)

    “British MP and lawyer Sir David Maxwell-Fyfe, the Chair of the Assembly’s Committee on Legal and Administrative Questions, was one of its leading members and guided the drafting of the Convention. ”

    I wish MPs and the media would inform people (like those in that survey mentioned above) of the truth instead of relaying inaccurate information and then perhaps people would be able to make a judgement on fact rather than knee-jerks.

  30. @IAJ

    “It is hard for Labour to control the “narrative” when the big popular media barons support the Tories and/or have a openly right wing agenda.”

    Ed has had plenty of coverage lately. It’s up to him to narrate it. The same goes for any other party, and if memory serves me correctly, the ‘media barons’ and the Conservatives weren’t on the best of terms, compared to times gone by.

  31. @Alec

    Regarding AGMs…my ‘claim’ was not a claim, but a fact. Shareholders vote on those who make the decisions. They are accountable for their decisions. Someone who doesn’t like their policies can voice their concerns at the AGM.

  32. STATGEEK
    Regarding AGMs…my ‘claim’ was not a claim, but a fact. Shareholders vote on those who make the decisions. They are accountable for their decisions. Someone who doesn’t like their policies can voice their concerns at the AGM.

    Then the pension funds rubber everything the companies want to do!

  33. alec [to colin]

    “You’re in danger of sinking to the levels of some of our younger posters”

    Cheek! Us yunguns are great.

  34. @ Statgeek

    In most cases AGMs have no power to force management to do anything. Their only option is to sell their shares which raises the possibility of hostile takeover, hence management loosing their jobs.

    In most cases shareholders cannot put anything on the agenda either without prior substantial support.

    Also in many cases the one share one vote is not applicable, not to mention international differences (e.g. the Dutch administrative trusts).

  35. Good Morning All, better numbers for Labour today, I know within the moe as they say here.

    Ed Miliband may well be on to a better path, in regards to the party funding and structures.

    Nick R on BBC was fairly sceptical.

  36. WALTERBRETT

    @”Then the pension funds rubber everything the companies want to do!”

    That may or may not be true.

    But on this topic it isn’t the point.

    The point is that CA2006 requires approval for political donations by Ordinary Resolution of shareholders.

    You will find this item on any company AGM subject to that Act.

    If a majority of shareholders approve of the proposal……….that means they agree with it………just like a TU member agreeing to opt IN to a political levy.

  37. CL1945

    @”Nick R on BBC was fairly sceptical.”

    With good reason I reckon.

    Don’t often agree with NR !

  38. Early start today. Lab figures seem robust. Back to 8 point lead.

  39. YouGov / The Sun results 9th July – Con 31%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%; APP -32

  40. How Long has Labour been in the range 38-42% Now and when did the Conservatives average support rise above 32%

    These are probably worrying days at Tory Central Office in response to Ed’s proposals for fundamental change predictably all that was offered was Operation Deny any Change by Spokesmen and their Media Chums.

    If Ed had proposed complete removal of the links between Labour and the Trade Union Movement they would have said precisely the same.

    However, the Tory Parties own funding issues are now fair game and I would expect a focus on this from Labour in the light of the fact the Conservatives do not appear to wish to address the issue at all.

  41. @steve,

    I still hold out that one day you will say something positive about the Conservatives. :-)

  42. Mind you it would have probably been better for Labour if the Right’s current Trade Union Bogey Man, Len McKlusky ,had dissolved into rug bighting rage rather than appearing perfectly sanguine and reasonable (maybe He’s crying inside).

    Where’s Bob Crowe when you need Him!

  43. Rich

    They do something positive and I would be delighted to acknowledge it.
    I Thought Theresa May did well with the deportation issue.

    There you go job done.

  44. Where’s Bob Crow when you need him? In another organization of course. If McCluskey were such a loony, he would be in the same boat as Bob Crow rather than in the Labour Party.

  45. @Steve

    Bob Crow leads the most successful public sector Union (RMT), apart from the BMA. It withdew its affiliation to Labour some time ago.

    @Barnaby M

    Agreed. Len may be a traditional leftie, but he’s no dinosaur. In fact where is the evidence for the claim the Press and TV keep making that he is not popular with Unite members? He certainly is with the ones I know, who feel no-one else listens to them, and the past leaders of the various Unions that merged to form Unite were closer to the Labour highcommand than their members. Whether his approach is effective with government is another matter.

  46. I am aware Bob Crowe isn’t a Labour Supporter and the NUR were dis-affiliated in 2004 by the Labour Party

    My point was the media were only too happy to spend an inordinate amount of time interviewing Tories and Vox popping various tattooed men in Lorries on this issue I am just a little surprised and disappointed they did interview Bob to.

  47. I meant RMT I was thinking Spanish for a moment for some reason must be the heat.

  48. On the Subject of Heart a little Quiz Question for you all

    The hottest day ever recorded in the UK was August 10, 2003. The temperature soared to 38.1C (100.6F) in Gravesend, Kent. How many days in a row did temperatures top 30C that month?

  49. @Steve

    “These are probably worrying days at Tory Central Office in response to Ed’s proposals for fundamental change predictably all that was offered was Operation Deny any Change by Spokesmen and their Media Chums.”

    I’m going to be stunningly naive here and suggest that Miliband’s initiative on funding, party membership and the Labour/Unions relationship actually provides an opportunity to the Conservatives too, not in some petty, partisan point scoring sense but in terms of them playing a part in transforming party politics in this country.

    If the Tories were being brutally honest with themselves, they would admit that they are in desperate trouble too in terms of membership, funding and activism. Most Tory constituency associations are ageing and semi-moribund rumps desperately in need of re-organisation and revitalisation. The party is heavily dependent on a few mega-wealthy donors for their funding and internal democracy is near non-existent. The recent YouGov poll of Tory Party members paints a very grim picture of an activist core deeply alienated from a metropolitan and elitist leadership who develop policy in a cultural and political vacuum.

    Why don’t the Tories, and the Lib Dems too for that matter, seize the moment and resurrect the cross party talks on party funding? Forget narrow party self-interest, they should join in a mature and measured debate about how all the major political parties can dig themselves out of this appalling mess. The health of our democracy and party politics depends on them doing so.

    To suggest that all we need to do to put our politics right in this country is to make sure that the Unions don’t fund the Labour Party is to visit a gigantic deceit on the British people. It’s self deluding too and my advice to Cameron is to ignore what Crosby might be advising him to do and grasp the nettle that’s effectively stinging all the parties. He needs to get on a similar page to the one Miliband has now alighted upon, for all our sakes.

  50. @Steve
    ” My point was the media were only too happy to spend an inordinate amount of time interviewing Tories and Vox popping various tattooed men in Lorries on this issue I am just a little surprised and disappointed they did interview Bob too.”

    Yes. That also surprised me.

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